[TheClimate.Vote] June 9, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Richard Pauli richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Jun 9 08:50:16 EDT 2018 

/June 9, 2018/

[411 ppm]
*Earth's CO2 Home Page <https://www.co2.earth/>*
May 2018
Atmospheric CO2 - 411.31 parts per million (ppm)
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (Scripps UCSD)
Preliminary data released June 4, 2018
https://www.co2.earth/


[Kerry speaks up]
*John Kerry accuses Trump of 'misleading' Americans on Paris climate 
accord 
<https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/06/07/john-kerry-accuses-president-trump-misleading-americans-paris-climate-accord/Dabauh88XVRZ5ZlcTyvTDP/story.html>*
The Boston Globe
John Kerry accuses Trump of 'misleading' Americans on Paris climate 
accord ... Kerry acknowledged that the Paris accord alone will not solve 
the problem of global warming.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/06/07/john-kerry-accuses-president-trump-misleading-americans-paris-climate-accord/Dabauh88XVRZ5ZlcTyvTDP/story.html


[green cash]
*IKEA to Sell Only Renewable and Recycled Products to Support Paris 
Climate Goal 
<https://www.thestreet.com/politics/ikea-to-sell-only-renewable-and-recycled-products-to-support-paris-climate-goal-14615309>*
The apartments of millennials everywhere are about to become a lot more 
sustainable.
Ikea announced Thursday that all of its products will be made from 
renewable and recycled materials by 2030 in an effort to comply with 
science-based targets to help limit global warming to the level 
prescribed in the Paris Climate Accord.
https://www.thestreet.com/politics/ikea-to-sell-only-renewable-and-recycled-products-to-support-paris-climate-goal-14615309


[holding on to coal]
*The story of coal in the 21st century, in one amazing map 
<https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/6/17427030/coal-plants-map-china-india-us-eu>*
See every coal plant in the world from 2000 on.
By David Roberts - Jun 7, 2018
I love data journalism and I love a good map, and the folks at Carbon 
Brief have just released adoozy of a visual 
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants>that 
combines both. Using data fromCoalSwarm <http://coalswarm.org/>’sGlobal 
Coal Plant Tracker <https://endcoal.org/global-coal-plant-tracker/>, it 
shows the location of every coal plant in the world - planned, under 
construction, operating, and retiring - from 2000 up through the present.
It’s endlessly fascinating. You can search by zip code, rotate, even 
zoom in super close and get a satellite view. Here’s the Yangtze Delta 
around Shanghai, the world’s heaviest concentration of coal capacity. 
All the yellow blobs are coal plants, their diameter relative to the size.
There’s about 97 gigawatts of coal capacity in a 15.5-square-mile area 
here. If the Yangtze Delta were its own country, it would have the 
fourth most coal capacity in the world, after China, the US, and India. 
Yikes...
- - - -
A lot of what’s going on is old coal plants, near the end of their life 
span, finally closing. While that’s good news, it’s also the easiest 
part of the job, coal-wise. Closing the newer ones, built in the 2000s, 
will be a steeper political climb.
But it must happen for any chance of hitting the common international 
target of no more than 2 degrees Celsius warming (much less the more 
challenging stretch goal of 1.5 degrees). All the purple blobs must 
disappear in short order and gray blobs must begin eating the globe. The 
US and EU need to be coal-free by 2030 and China and India a decade or 
so after. Under those circumstances, lots of coal plants are going to be 
retired early, i.e., "stranded."
While another 200 GW of coal capacity is currently being built and 450 
GW more are planned (a disaster for the 2-degree target), there’s a 
decent chance much less of that will produce power than currently expected.
It is possible, if you squint just right, to see a global inflection 
point around 2014. Coal’s meteoric rise through the 2000s finally ran 
its course and renewables took hold.
Just maybe, on the other side of that inflection point, renewable energy 
will grow and coal will fall, as fast as coal once rose in the 2000s. 
We’d better hope so.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/6/17427030/coal-plants-map-china-india-us-eu


[Upcoming, important world events]
*10 key moments on the road to the Cop24 climate talks 
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/08/9-key-moments-road-cop24-climate-talks/>*
Published on 08/06/2018, 12:34am
Leaders meeting at the G7 this weekend kick off six months of diplomatic 
moments that will be decisive in shaping the future of the Paris Agreement
By Soila Apparicio
2018 is the most important year of climate talks since the Paris deal 
was struck. And the first five months have not gone too well.
Delivering the tools needed to put the Paris Agreement into effect will 
be the major challenge when countries meet at Cop24 in Poland this 
December. But talks stalled in May, leaving a mass of political and 
technical discussion to pack into the next six months.
The UN climate conference, which will be held from 3-14 December in the 
coal-mining town of Katowice, is the deadline to deliver an as-of-yet 
unwritten set of rules that will govern the Paris accord.
It matters because a weak set of rules will mean countries will end up 
doing less to fight climate change.
The last half of 2018 is littered with meetings that could build or 
break momentum into those talks. Here are the moments to keep an eye on:

*G7 Summit, Quebec, 8-9 June*
Given the US has turned away from its commitment to climate action, big 
statements aren’t expected from the G7...
  "The G7 is a very influential group that can make a huge contribution 
to stepping up climate action and ensuring that 2018 yields a successful 
outcome for all," said Espinosa.

*Petersberg Climate Dialogue IX, Berlin, 18-19 June**
*The annual Petersberg Climate Dialogue, an informal international 
conference, has offered the opportunity for governments to exchange 
their experiences in climate policy since 2010...
This year the dialogue will focus on the impacts of delaying ambitious 
action, ensuring a just transition for all, and climate finance...
Negotiators will also look at how to complete the Paris Agreement work 
programme, which is colloquially known as the rulebook.

*Second Ministerial on Climate Action (Moca), Brussels, 20-21 June*
 From Berlin, some ministers will jump straight into more talks on 
climate action. Just over a year after Donald Trump announced the US 
would withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the Ministerial on Climate 
Action (Moca) between climate chiefs from China, the European Union, and 
Canada will hold its second meeting...

*UNFCCC Climate Change Conference, Bangkok, 4-9 September*
UNFCCC will hold extra climate talks in Bangkok in September. The extra 
negotiation session has been charged with producing an outline for an 
agreement to be struck in Katowice. Diplomats need a ‘negotiating text’, 
which can serve as a basis for talks...

*Rise for Climate marches, International, 8 September*
Ahead of the Global Climate Action Summit, tens of thousands of people 
around the globe plan to take part in marches as part of the Rise for 
Climate campaign, which aim to demonstrate grassroots climate leadership.
A continental day of action will take place in Australia, local 
renewable energy summits across Africa, a major march in Portugal and 
virtual marches in East Asia, are just some of the hundreds of events 
that are planned.
*
**Global Climate Action Summit, California, 12-14 September*
Fronted by California governor Jerry Brown, the climate summit signifies 
the determination by US officials and non-state actors to show they can 
and will work to prevent climate change, despite the country’s intention 
to leave the Paris climate agreement.
California will convene representatives from subnational governments, 
businesses, investors and civil society. The summit organisers hope it 
will be a "launchpad for deeper worldwide commitments" that will help 
countries realise the agreement and help build momentum for a successful 
outcome at Cop24.

*Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM), Bonn, 18-21 September *
In 2016 in Warsaw, the UNFCCC established the Warsaw International 
Mechanism to look at what more the international community can do to 
help developing countries deal with the physical and financial impacts 
of climate change.
The upcoming meeting will focus on what action and support is needed by 
less economically developed countries, enhancing knowledge and 
strengthening dialogue. The mechanism allows for policy to be discussed 
and for the negative impacts of climate change to be addressed by 
government and non-government actors if global efforts to adapt to those 
impacts are not sufficient.

*UN General Assembly and Climate Week, New York, 18-30 September*
World leaders meet in New York at the UN General Assembly, running 
parallel to Climate Week in the same city...
Climate Week NYC, which is organised by international non-profit The 
Climate Group, will also bring together international leaders from 
business, government, and civil society to demonstrate the need to keep 
up the momentum for global climate action...secretary general António 
Guterres will host a climate summit for world leaders to review 
commitments made under the Paris Agreement.

*IPCC 1.5C report launch, Incheon, 8 October*
In October, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 
will officially present its special report on global warming.
The UN body for assessing the science related to climate change was 
invited by the UNFCCC to write a special report on the impacts of global 
warming of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels...

    Climate Home News obtained a copy of the first draft summary for
    policymakers earlier this year. Findings from the draft indicate
    that if the global community misses the 1.5C warming target, hunger,
    migration and conflict will worsen. In short, we don’t have much time.

*G20 Summit, Buenos Aires, 30 November - 1 December*
The G20 economies account for around 80% of world trade, 82% of 
energy-related CO2 emissions, two-thirds of the global population and 
approximately half of the world land area...
Its timing brings world leaders together just two days before the 
conference in Katowice begins.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/08/9-key-moments-road-cop24-climate-talks/


[Deep thinker, Dave Roberts]
*We are almost certainly underestimating the economic risks of climate 
change 
<https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/8/17437104/climate-change-global-warming-models-risks>*
The models that inform climate policymaking are fatally flawed.
By David Roberts Jun 8, 2018
One of the more vexing aspects of climate change politics and policy is 
the longstanding gap between the models that project the physical 
effects of global warming and those that project the economic impacts. 
In a nutshell, even as the former deliver worse and worse news, 
especially about a temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius or more, the 
latter remain placid.
The famous DICE model <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DICE_model> created 
by Yale’s William Nordhaus shows that a 6-degree rise in global average 
temperature - which the physical sciences characterize as an unlivable 
hellscape 
<https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/apr/23/scienceandnature.climatechange> 
- would only dent global GDP by 10 percent.
Projections of modest economic impacts from even the most severe climate 
change affect climate politics in a number of ways. For one thing, they 
inform policy goals like those President Obama offered in Paris, 
restraining their ambition. For another, they fuel the arguments of 
"lukewarmers," those who say that the climate is warming but it’s not 
that big a problem. (Lukewarmism is the public stance of most Trump 
Cabinet members 
<https://mashable.com/2017/01/19/trump-cabinet-picks-climate-denial/#rE4lVX_JyOq9>.)
Climate hawks have long had the strong instinct that it’s the economic 
models, not the physical-science models, that are missing something - 
that the current expert consensus about climate economic damages is far 
too sanguine - but they often lack the vocabulary to do any more than 
insist.
- - - -*
**The IPCC is working on its next big report and still using models that 
underestimate economic damages*
The second paper 
<https://academic.oup.com/reep/advance-article/doi/10.1093/reep/rey005/5025082>, 
in /Review of Environmental Economics and Policy/, makes the same point 
- commonly used models are underestimating the economic impacts of 
climate change - in a slightly different way, to a different audience.
The audience in this case is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change (IPCC), which is preparing to pull together its Sixth Assessment 
Report, to be released over 2021 and 2022. IPCC assessment reports are 
hugely influential in global policymaking.
- - - -
*Model talk is kind of boring, but models underlie everything*
There’s a lot of technical mumbo-jumbo flying around in these 
conversations about models, so it’s important to step back and recall 
the point of all this.
Policymakers want to know how much climate change will hurt the economy. 
They want to know how much policies to fight climate change will cost. 
Models provide them with answers. Right now, models are (inaccurately) 
telling them that damage costs will be low and policy costs will be high.
Political mobilization on climate change is going to fight a headwind as 
long as policymakers are getting those answers from models.
We need models that negatively weigh uncertainty, properly account for 
tipping points, incorporate more robust and current technology cost 
data, better differentiate sectors outside electricity, rigorously price 
energy efficiency, and include the social and health benefits of 
decarbonization.
One, such models would be more accurate, better at their task of 
informing policymakers. And two, they would justify far more policy and 
investment to fight climate change than has been seen to date in the US 
or any other major economy. We shouldn’t let the blind spots and 
shortcomings of current models undermine political ambition.
Save the models, save the world.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/6/8/17437104/climate-change-global-warming-models-risks
- - - -
[from 2015]
*How much is climate change going to cost us? 
<https://grist.org/climate-energy/how-much-is-climate-change-going-to-cost-us/>*
By David Roberts - on Jan 15, 2015
How much is climate change going to cost us? How much is it worth to 
avoid it? How do we figure that out?
Well, first we develop models in the physical sciences that show how 
biophysical systems will react to changing levels of atmospheric gases. 
Then we feed that data into economic models, usually Integrated 
Assessment Models (IAMs), to project the economic cost of a given change 
in temperature....
- - - -
The researchers did model runs incorporating both theories. Long story 
short, the temperature theory still implies aggressive, near-term 
mitigation. The resilience theory implies lots of mitigation up front, 
then easing off a little as poor countries get richer, then going 
aggressive again. (The way DICE treats mitigation is unrealistic in 
several ways, but let’s not get off course.)
But the remarkable fact, to me, is that we just don’t know which theory 
is true. We don’t know what mix of lower carbon and higher GDP produces 
optimal welfare, even directionally, much less with any precision. This 
makes it virtually impossible to determine how best to address, say, 
energy access. On this, as on so much climate-related, we are groping in 
the dark.
https://grist.org/climate-energy/how-much-is-climate-change-going-to-cost-us/


[Global warming medieval history]
*Professor tracks medieval winds of (climate) change 
<https://phys.org/news/2018-06-professor-tracks-medieval-climate.html>*
Phys.Org
The Middle Ages - spanning the 5th to 13th centuries - witnessed the 
rise of the Catholic Church, the spread of Islam and social and 
political transformation that laid the foundation for the Renaissance 
and modern Western civilization.
While greed, pride and curiosity brought about some of that change, 
Melitta Adamson argues food and climate change were the main drivers.
"Climate is rarely mentioned as a major factor in the food choices 
people made and the social and political upheaval that could result from 
climate change," Adamson said.
The Modern Languages and Literatures professor and food historian is 
among the first scholars in her field to document how climate change, 
with its critical impact on food production, shaped the Middle Ages (or 
Medieval Period) through famine, disease and war.
Adamson's paper, "Climate Change and the Medieval Diet," is a timely 
reminder to governments, policy-makers and the general public that 
history may very well repeat itself and that the past holds lessons this 
generation can tackle in the future.
Scientists only recently have charted medieval weather data by studying 
ice cores, tree rings, pollen remains and ocean sediments. A warm period 
lasting from around AD 800 to 1300 was bookended by two cold stretches: 
one from the 6th to the 7th centuries, the other from the late 13th to 
the mid-19th centuries.
Adamson combined this data with her research in medieval food practices 
she found in contemporary writings, including medieval cookbook 
manuscripts, medical literature, household accounts, church records of 
wine production and grape harvests, and narrative texts describing 
people's food habits...
- - - -
Her book, Food in the Middle Ages, explored how the common foodstuffs 
available, how and what they cooked, ate, and drank, what the regional 
cuisines were like, how the different classes entertained and 
celebrated, and what restrictions they followed for health and faith 
reasons. Drawing on a variety of period sources - literature, account 
books, cookbooks, religious texts, archaeology, and art - it provided 
fascinating information, such as on imitation food, kitchen humor, and 
medical ideas. Many period recipes and quotations flesh out the narrative...
Showed how food was a status symbol then, and sumptuary laws defined 
what a person of a certain class could eat - the ingredients and 
preparation of a dish and how it was eaten depended on a person's 
status, and most information is available on the upper crust rather than 
the masses. Equalizing factors might have been religious strictures and 
such diseases as the bubonic plague, all of which are detailed here.

*Adamson's latest paper brings climate change into the discussion.*
The first cold period (Late Antique Little Ice Age) from the 6th to the 
7th centuries caused massive famines in Europe and Asia. With 
malnourishment making people more vulnerable to disease, epidemics left 
millions dead. During this time, Slavic peoples migrated to the eastern 
part of Europe, and people of central Asia to China, in search of 
pastureland, Adamson noted.
Meanwhile, a wetter climate in the Arabian Peninsula meant more 
vegetation and a better diet for humans and animals. This contributed to 
the rapid expansion of the Arab Empire.
In AD 711, Arabs landed in Spain. They brought with them Greek classics, 
and their knowledge of science and medicine, which would become critical 
in developing Renaissance Europe in the later centuries....
Read more at:
https://phys.org/news/2018-06-professor-tracks-medieval-climate.html


*This Day in Climate History - June 9, 2008 
<http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-07-09/news/36799342_1_climate-change-epa-deputy-associate-administrator-congressional-testimony> 
- from D.R. Tucker*
June 9, 2008: - Deputy EPA administrator Jason Burnett resigns; he later 
claims that he did so after repeated interference from the White House 
on issues related to carbon pollution.
Members of Vice President Cheney's staff censored congressional 
testimony by a top federal official about health threats posed by global 
warming, a former Environmental Protection Agency official said yesterday.
https://www.sfgate.com/green/article/Ex-EPA-aide-tells-of-White-House-censorship-3205205.php 

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-07-09/news/36799342_1_climate-change-epa-deputy-associate-administrator-congressional-testimony 

http://youtu.be/IPjyauzrrv0

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