[TheClimate.Vote] June 13, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Jun 13 11:06:48 EDT 2018
/June 13, 2018/
[Finally a video game]
*Could a video game help us solve climate change?
<https://grist.org/article/could-a-video-game-help-us-solve-climate-change/>*
By Jesse Nichols - on Jun 12, 2018
There's a game for just about everything, from plumbers playing golf to
LEGOs recreating sci-fi movies. But when it comes to climate change -
arguably the greatest crisis to humanity - the playing field is pretty
sparse.
Video https://youtu.be/QKcCpVX5lt4
There's one scientist trying to change that. Dargan Frierson runs Earth
Games, a University of Washington lab designing games about climate
change and environmental science. He believes a climate game might just
be the solution we've been waiting for. But what does it take to make a
game about climate change that's also fun? Watch our video to find out!
https://grist.org/article/could-a-video-game-help-us-solve-climate-change/
[Insurance Journal]
*NOAA Expects Sea Level Rise to Produce Record Coastal Flooding This
Year <https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/06/07/491586.htm>*
By Don Jergler - June 7, 2018
The projected increase in high tide flooding in 2018 may be as much as
60 percent higher across U.S. coastlines compared to typical flooding
about 20 years ago, according to scientists at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.
Some flooding in the 2018 seasonal forecast can be credited to an El
Nino scientists now believe may occur later this year, however they
believe sea level rise is the main culprit for an increase in recent
years in coastal high tide flooding, which occurs when water levels
measured at NOAA's numerous tide gauges exceed heights based on national
flooding thresholds.
These assertions were made by NOAA scientists on Wednesday in the 2017
State of U.S. High Tide Flooding and a 2018 Outlook, which shows more
than a quarter of the coastal locations measured last year tied or broke
their individual records for high tide flood days.
View the full report on Insurance Journals's Research and Trends
section.
<https://www.insurancejournal.com/research/research/2017-state-of-u-s-high-tide-flooding/>
"I think the underlying trend is quite clear. Due to sea level rise the
national average trend in high tide flood frequency is now more than 50
percent higher than it was 20 years ago and 100 percent higher than it
was 30 years ago," William Sweet, a NOAA oceanographer and one of the
authors of the report, said on a conference call with reporters.
Sweet noted that the sea level is rising globally up to 3 mm or more per
year, or roughly 1 inch every eight years, one-third of which he
attributes to thermal expansion of the ocean while two-thirds is from
land-based ice melt.
These rising seas contributed to the number of days of high tide
flooding last year reaching a historical record...
- - - - -
The report finds, for example, that the Southeast Atlantic coast is
experiencing the fastest rate of increase in annual high tide flood
days, with more than a 150 percent increase since 2000 predicted in this
year at most locations.
According to the report, we can expect the breaking of annual flood
records next year and for decades to come as sea levels rise, and likely
at an accelerated rate.
"Already, high tide flooding that occurs from a combination of high
astronomical tides, typical winter storms and episodic tropical storms
has entered a sustained period of rapidly increasing trends within about
two-thirds of the coastal U.S. locations," the report states. "Though
year‐to‐year and regional variability exist, the underlying trend is
quite clear: due to sea level rise, the national average frequency of
high tide flooding is double what it was 30 years ago."
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/06/07/491586.htm
- - - - -
[Check your map]
*Why chronic floods are coming to New Jersey
<https://www.vox.com/videos/2018/6/4/17426392/sea-level-rise-new-jersey-high-tide-flooding-infrastructure-coastal-communities>*
Railroads aren't great if they're underwater.
By Carlos Waters - Jun 4, 2018
Sea level rise will have a profound impact on coastal infrastructure
because it's often built on cheaper, low-elevation land. As sea level
rises, the systems that support the densely populated, urban areas
-power generation facilities, wastewater treatment plants, and miles of
transportation networks <http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/8/11/1115/htm>-
will be at greater risk of flooding.
Significant portions of the US's eastern coast are alsosinking
<https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sinking-atlantic-coastline-meets-rapidly-rising-seas/>,
due to an ancient,melting glacial ice sheet
<https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/glacial-adjustment.html>and
thesubsidence of its bedrock
<https://geology.rutgers.edu/images/stories/faculty/miller_kenneth_g/Sealevelfactsheet7112014update.pdf>.
The video above details the impacts an accelerated rising sea level will
have on the greater New York City metropolitan region.
Rutgers University climate scientist Robert Kopp said that "with a
higher sea level, it requires less of a storm to produce the same amount
of flooding. And the same storm will produce more flooding."
The impact of increased floods will fall on residents who rely on
low-lying infrastructure on a day-to-day basis. "Imagine if you were on
a train and you had to wait for high tide to go out for the train to go
through," said Robert Freudenberg of the Regional Plan Association.
"We're facing an impending crisis of shutdown because of this connective
tissue in our region in our infrastructure."
For communities on the shore, flooding already occurs at certain high
tides, even on sunny days. When the moon is full and particularly close
to Earth, the tide strengthens and water rises. These tide cycles are
known as "king tides <https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/kingtide.html>."
Some residents in coastal communities document the flooding from these
high tides. A variety ofking tide photo initiatives
<http://kingtides.net/participate/join-a-project/>have started in the
past decade. You can learn more about joining one or starting your own
at theKing Tide Project's website
<http://kingtides.net/participate/join-a-project/>.
There are a variety of measures to prevent, adapt, or retreat the
development of infrastructure in newly flood-prone areas. Groups
including the Regional Plan Association have introduced ideas like the
creation of a coastal commission that would coordinate climate
adaptation measures. They've also advocated for thefull-scale retreat
<https://ny.curbed.com/2018/2/14/17009764/climate-change-national-park-meadowlands>from
wetlands that will one day be reclaimed by nature.
But many experts across disciplines agree that most communities aren't
doing enough today to prepare for the negative effects of sea level rise.
"Sea level rise impacts are happening now. We're seeing them in the East
Coast in terms of increased number of these sunny-day flooding events,"
says William Sweet, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration. "As sea levels continue to rise, the impacts
are going to become deeper, more severe, more widespread. And we're
going to have to come to grips with the fact that the way we live our
lives today is not going to be the same as the way we live our lives in
the future."
https://www.vox.com/videos/2018/6/4/17426392/sea-level-rise-new-jersey-high-tide-flooding-infrastructure-coastal-communities
[Author of the movie Taxi Driver]
MOVIE INTERVIEWS
*Paul Schrader And Ethan Hawke Test Their Faith In 'First Reformed'
<https://www.npr.org/2018/06/12/619165319/paul-schrader-and-ethan-hawke-test-their-faith-in-first-reformed>*
June 12, 2018 - Heard on Fresh Air
TERRY GROSS
*First Reformed*, which Schrader wrote and directed, centers on a
divorced minister who is experiencing a crisis of faith related to the
death of his son in the Iraq War. The movie touches on themes of
spirituality, environmentalism and despair. Schrader describes it as a
meditative film that withholds action in an effort to "give you less -
and make you want more."
- - - read the transcript:
https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=619165319
And I find there's something patently phony about the life of an
actor. When you start young enough, it's unnerving and unsettling.
You get an inordinate amount of attention for not enough work, and
it's confusing. Success is sometimes the worst thing for personal
growth. And if success happens too young, that can be a real
problem. And so faith, seeing yourself in context of a larger
environment, you know, of the stars and the planets and the galaxies
and the history of time and things like that can really help.
And I found the writing of Thomas Merton extremely helpful. And, you
know, obviously through his love of Christ, everything was rooted.
But he was not - he didn't see that as a door that closed him off
from other people. And through my experiences of my own teachers, I
found Reverend Toller easy to relate to.
GROSS: So here's another religion question. There's a scene in which
the head of the mega-church, which owns the small historic church in
which Ethan Hawke's character is the reverend - the head of the
mega-church calls him in at one point and says, you know, you're
always, like, suffering, you're always in despair and even Jesus
wasn't always in the Garden of Gethsemane. Paul Schrader, can you
explain that line for us, like, for people who don't know the Bible
or Jesus' life well enough what the significance of the Garden of
Gethsemane is?
SCHRADER: Well, the Garden of Gethsemane is where he prayed to God
on his knees, please let this cup pass from me, the cup of his own
death, the cup of his martyrdom and literally, you know, sweat tears
of blood. Well, that's the darkest moment in the darkest night. And
that's the moment Toller finds himself, you know, pleading with God,
you know, take this cup away from me.
GROSS: Did anyone ever say anything similar to you, that you were
dwelling too much in despair and loneliness and that's not what
Jesus wanted?
SCHRADER: Well, somebody I remember, Chet Flippo's wife said to me
right out of the blue, she said, you know, there is a sunny side of
the street.
GROSS: (Laughter).
SCHRADER: And I wasn't quite so aware I was avoiding it.
GROSS: Do you still avoid it?
SCHRADER: I try not to.
GROSS: My guests are Paul Schrader, who wrote and directed the new
film "First Reformed," and Ethan Hawke, who stars in the film. We'll
be back after a short break. This is FRESH AIR.
- - - - -
*On how First Reformed compares to Schrader's screenplay for Taxi Driver*
Paul Schrader: This film has been compared to Taxi Driver. I think
rightly so. Except that [the] Taxi Driver [character Travis Bickle] is
essentially an ignorant person and Rev. Toller is an intellectual, and
there's 40 years between them. So it's not the same movie. ... I think
that Travis ... is experiencing loneliness in a very narcissistic way,
whereas Rev. Toller, as an older man, is feeling that in an existential
way. And so the expression is different.
*On how First Reformed practices "slow cinema"*
Schrader: "Slow cinema" essentially refers to those films that are slow,
long, and where not much happens. But, beyond that, it doesn't have much
definition. "Slow cinema" can be shown in a museum as an artwork; it can
be shown as a surveillance video; it can be shown in a meditation
environment. But what all slow cinema has in common, whether it is made
for the commercial arena, for the theatrical arena, or whether it's made
for the museum arena, is these withholding devices. ... And there are
various techniques you use to do that, and I use a number of them in
this film. And, obviously, when you push them too far you'll get cinema
that is not designed for popular audiences anymore. That is just
essentially an installation.
- - - -
*On why Schrader goes to church to "be bored"*
Schrader: For me, I like to go to church on Sunday mornings to organize
my thoughts, organize my week, and be quiet. And you don't walk out of a
church because you're bored. You go to church to be bored - to have that
time. And you can have it in your room in the lotus position or you can
have it in a pew. It's essentially the same sort of thing for me and
that's what I enjoy about it.
https://www.npr.org/2018/06/12/619165319/paul-schrader-and-ethan-hawke-test-their-faith-in-first-reformed
[yes it is relative]
*Will climate change bring benefits from reduced cold-related mortality?
Insights from the latest epidemiological research
<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/06/will-climate-change-bring-benefits-from-reduced-cold-related-mortality-insights-from-the-latest-epidemiological-research/#more-21466>*
Filed under: Climate impacts Climate Science statistics - stefan @ 11
June 2018
Guest post by Veronika Huber
*Climate skeptics sometimes like to claim that although global warming
will lead to more deaths from heat, it will overall save lives due to
fewer deaths from cold. But is this true? Epidemiological studies
suggest the opposite.*
Mortality statistics generally show a distinct seasonality. More people
die in the colder winter months than in the warmer summer months. In
European countries, for example, the difference between the average
number of deaths in winter (December - March) and in the remaining
months of the year is 10% to 30%. Only a proportion of these winter
excess deaths are directly related to low ambient temperatures (rather
than other seasonal factors). Yet, it is reasonable to suspect that
fewer people will die from cold as winters are getting milder with
climate change. On the other hand, excess mortality from heat may also
be high, with, for example, up to 70,000 additional deaths attributed to
the 2003 summer heat wave in Europe. So, will the expected reduction in
cold-related mortality be large enough to compensate for the equally
anticipated increase in heat-related mortality under climate change?..
Some earlier studies indeed concluded on significant net reductions in
temperature-related mortality with global warming. Interestingly, the
estimated mortality benefits from one of these studies were later
integrated into major integrated assessment models (FUND and ENVISAGE),
used inter alia to estimate the highly policy-relevant social costs of
carbon. They were also taken up by Bjorn Lomborg and other authors, who
have repeatedly accused mainstream climate science to be overly
alarmist. Myself and others have pointed to the errors inherent in these
studies, biasing the results towards finding strong net benefits of
climate change. In this post, I would like to (i) present some
background knowledge on the relationship between ambient temperature and
mortality, and (ii) discuss the results of a recent study published in
The Lancet Planetary Health (which I co-authored) in light of potential
mortality benefits from climate change. This study, for the first time,
comprehensively presented future projections of cold- and heat-related
mortality for more than 400 cities in 23 countries under different
scenarios of global warming.
- - - -
I would like to conclude with the following thought: Let's assume -
albeit extremely unlikely - that the study discussed here does correctly
predict the actual future changes of temperature-related excess
mortality due to climate change, despite the mentioned caveats. Mostly
rich countries in temperate latitudes would then indeed experience a
decline in overall temperature-related mortality. On the other hand, the
world would witness a dramatic increase in heat-related mortality rates
in the most populous and often poorest parts of the globe. And the
latter alone would be in my view a sufficient argument for ambitious
mitigation - independently of the innumerous, well-researched climate
risks beyond the health sector.
To judge the societal importance of temperature-related mortality, a
central question is whether the considered deaths are merely brought
forward by a short amount of time or whether they correspond to a
considerable life-shortening. If, for example, mostly elderly and sick
people were affected by non-optimal temperatures, whose individual life
expectancies are low, the observed mortality risks would translate into
a comparatively low number of years of life lost. Importantly,
short-term displacements of deaths (often termed 'harvesting' in the
literature) are accounted for in the models presented here, as long as
they occur within the lag period considered. Beyond these short-term
effects, recent research investigating temperature mortality
associations on an annual scale indicates that the mortality risks found
in daily time-series analyses are in fact associated with a significant
life shortening, exceeding at least 1 year. Only comparatively few
studies so far have explicitly considered relationships between
temperature and years of life lost, taking statistical life expectancies
according to sex and age into account. One such studies found that, for
Brisbane (Australia), the years of life lost - unlike the mortality
rates - were not markedly seasonal, implying that in winter the
mortality risks for the elderly were especially elevated. Accordingly,
low temperatures in this study were associated with fewer years of life
lost than high temperatures - but interestingly, only in men.
Understanding how exactly the effects of cold and heat on mortality
differ among men and women, and across different age groups, definitely
merits further investigations.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/06/will-climate-change-bring-benefits-from-reduced-cold-related-mortality-insights-from-the-latest-epidemiological-research/#more-21466
[Indiana]
*Studies: Climate change wreaking havoc on Indiana's infrastructure
<http://www.pharostribune.com/indiana/news/article_d2544ded-ddbf-5303-8232-e73a0893fbac.html>*
By Christopher Stephens | The Herald Bulletin Jun 10, 2018
ANDERSON - Unless mitigation measures are taken, climate change will
mean more than just hotter summers and less predictable winters in
Indiana, according to two new studies.
The studies, published this month by the Midwest Economic Policy
Institute and highlighted last week at the Indiana Professional
Engineering Conference, warn that climate change will devastate Hoosier
transportation and electrical systems.
"In the wake of widespread flooding in 2008, 2015, and 2018 and severe
drought in 2012, Indiana is already experiencing observable impacts from
climate change," said Mary Craighead, the lead author of both studies.
"It is vital for policymakers to understand the potential costs of these
events and to make the necessary investments in energy and
infrastructure systems that can help mitigate the long-term economic
consequences."
The state's average rainfall has grown 9 percent since 1980 and the
average temperature has risen each year since the 1950s, Craighead said,
wreaking havoc on the state's roadways, bridges and railway structures.
Increased heat can reduce the lifespan of pavement and cause railways to
buckle, not only causing closed roads and railways, but also damaging
the cars and trains that drive over them. Flooding leads to weakened
supports for bridges and can deteriorate soil supporting roadways,
tunnels and bridges.
"At best, this translates to higher-than-expected maintenance costs, and
at worst, interruptions of services and freight and commuter movements
on which the economy depends," Craighead said.
Indiana's above-ground electricity transmission lines are especially
susceptible to high winds, ice, snow and electrical storms, the studies
found.
The state ranks ninth in the nation and third in the Midwest in
electricity outages caused by extreme weather. The rate of outages is
expected to increase as infrastructure systems age and extreme weather
becomes more frequent.
Failing roads, bridges and electrical lines ultimately hit taxpayers
squarely in the pocketbook.
"State and local governments can and must take steps to mitigate these
already apparent impacts, by making sure investments in infrastructure,
energy systems and new development reflect today's climate realities -
not the 1950s," Craighead said.
The studies call for a range of policy changes, including a state
Climate Action Plan with greenhouse gas emissions targets, a climate
adaptation plan for new and existing infrastructure, updating heat and
rainfall standards used in project design and limiting development in
locations prone to flooding.
In particular, Craighead calls for increased diversification of
Indiana's current coal-based energy production system. While Indiana is
producing more and consuming less energy than in 2000, it pays far more
for coal and industrial electricity than many other U.S. states.
"While natural market forces are already producing more renewable energy
and less energy demand in Indiana, more can and should be done,"
Craighead concluded.
http://www.pharostribune.com/indiana/news/article_d2544ded-ddbf-5303-8232-e73a0893fbac.html
[Now for some Ethics]
*National Climate Justice <https://nationalclimatejustice.org/>*
*Training Video for Climate Change Advocates Demonstrating How to Ask
Questions of Those Who Oppose Climate Change Policies on the Grounds of
Excessive Costs or Scientific Uncertainty to Expose Ethical Problems
with these Arguments*
Video - https://youtu.be/0I8ya7QrZ_I
Because opponents of climate change policies have succeeded by framing
arguments against climate change policies by making scientific
uncertainty and economic arguments in a way that hides or distorts
obvious ethical and moral problems with these arguments, while at the
same time tricking governments and citizens to debate these arguments in
accordance with how the opponents have framed the climate debate, and
aware that most government officials and citizens dont have the training
to spot the ethical and moral problems with these arguments, we have
produced a video which seeks to train advocates of climate policies how
to expose obvious ethical and moral problems with the most common
arguments made against proposed climate change policies. The video is
available at nationalclimatejustice.org...
- - --
*9 Questions to be asked of those opposing government action on climate
change on the basis of cost to the economy, cost to specific industries,
or job destruction...
- - - -
**11 Questions to be asked of those opposing national action on climate
change on the basis of scientific uncertainty...*
https://nationalclimatejustice.org/
[Because lessons not learned, will be repeated]
*Governments must realize that all growth is not good
<http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article212163814.html>*
BY RICHARD GROSSO
May 30, 2018
Local governments don't have the luxury of pretending sea-level rise and
climate change aren't real. Cities and counties must deal with the daily
realities of the effects on homes, businesses, roads, water supplies,
sewer lines, insurance costs, safety hazards, property-tax revenue, bond
ratings and more that we are experiencing now - with even worse to come.
Southeast Florida has a Regional Climate Compact to coordinate
climate-change efforts in four counties and many cities, an Everglades
restoration project with the potential to restore freshwater flow to
fight saltwater encroachment, strong legal and policy tools and lots of
superior professional talent.
But, the massive scale of the challenge we face requires more
willingness to change business as usual than we've seen to date. If we
can't show residents, businesses and investors (current and future) that
South Florida is prepared to confront climate change and sea-level rise
and prepare for the future, we are in big trouble - economically,
socially and ecologically.
- - - - -
The pace of government spending on Everglades restoration projects must
increase. The ability of restoration projects to prevent the worst
impacts of sea-level rise is being compromised by the slow pace of
providing the money to do the work.
Economics and science require that our historic "all growth is good"
practices give way to smarter decisions that protect our investments,
not threaten them by increasing our vulnerability to the seas that
surround us.
http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article212163814.html
[Just posted: surfer talking of beach. ]
*The Surfing Scientists of Narragansett, Rhode Island
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFYzvIas6gA>*
climatecentral.org
Published on Jun 6, 2018
Surf's up, but so is the sea level! Meet a couple of surfer scientists
who offer a unique and personal perspective on how a warming world is
affecting the Rhode Island coastline and their favorite
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFYzvIas6gA
*This Day in Climate History - June 13, 1993
<June%2013,%201993:%20The%20Baltimore%20Sun%20reports%20on%20the%20well-financed%20effort%20by%20libertarian%20activists%20and%20fossil-fuel%20industry%20lobbyists%20to%20stop%20the%20BTU%20tax.,,http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-06-13/news/1993164025_1_btu-tax-energy-tax-gasoline-tax>
- from D.R. Tucker*
June 13, 1993: The Baltimore Sun reports on the well-financed effort by
libertarian activists and fossil-fuel industry lobbyists to stop the BTU
tax.
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-06-13/news/1993164025_1_btu-tax-energy-tax-gasoline-tax
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