[TheClimate.Vote] June 14, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Jun 14 10:06:17 EDT 2018
/June 14, 2018/
[Wedding photo for the Anthropocene]
*Couple takes wedding photos amid wildfire blazing in Colorado
<https://www.cbsnews.com/news/couple-takes-wedding-photos-amid-wildfire-blazing-in-colorado/>*
The worsening conditions, however, did not prevent McLaughlin and Kramer
from celebrating their wedding.
The couple quickly found a backup plan. At the last minute, they moved
their wedding from their original venue, which was closed, and held it
in a home instead. The wildfire was visible from the area, near route
250, but McLaughlin and Kramer made the most of it.
They took their wedding photos outside, with the blazing fire in the
background sending plumes of bright orange smoke into the sky.
The unconventional wedding portraits captured nature's wrath - and
beauty. Their photographer, Alexi Hubbell, shot the groom dipping the
bride, the couple kissing and holding hands against the backdrop of the
flames.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/couple-takes-wedding-photos-amid-wildfire-blazing-in-colorado/
- - - -
https://www.facebook.com/alexihubbellphotography/photos/a.632817190078850.1073741835.630955903598312/2200639176629969/?type=3&theater
[No coal bailout]
*No Power Grid Emergency to Justify Coal Bailout, Federal Regulators Say
<https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12062018/ferc-no-power-grid-national-security-emergency-trump-perry-coal-subsidy-energy-regulators-congress>*
The top regulators of the nation's power grid told Congress on Tuesday
that they see no immediate national security emergency to justify
propping up coal and nuclear power plants with a government order, as
the Trump administration is considering.
All five members of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FERC,
weighed in at a hearing of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources
Committee on a debate that has been roiling the industry and its
regulators for months. It was the first time in many years that the
whole commission had appeared before the committee together.
Even though most of them were appointed by President Donald Trump, they
seemed ambivalent or even hostile to his repeated attempts, along with
Energy Secretary Rick Perry, to require grid operators to buy power from
uneconomical coal and nuclear power plants.
- - - -
Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, the committee's chairwoman,
also said she was skeptical.
"As with many controversies, with so much at stake in such a heavily
regulated industry such as energy, the various interests are locked in,"
she noted. "This is battle, this is mortal conflict for some."
Murkowski is closely aligned with the oil and gas industry. Its lobbying
group, the American Petroleum Institute, has joined renewable energy
advocates to strongly oppose the administration's efforts on behalf of
coal and nuclear.
*'FERC Does Not Pick Winners and Losers'*
The committee's ranking Democrat, Maria Cantwell of Washington, said she
found the idea of intervening in markets "mind-boggling."
The commissioners, in more measured words, seemed to agree with her.
"FERC does not pick winners and losers in the market," Powelson said.
"Instead we create an environment where the market can pick the winners
and losers." He called it a "moral hazard" to do otherwise.
"We need to be wary of people using the situation or a potential
situation as a way to achieve market changes that they haven't been able
to achieve otherwise," Glick said.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/12062018/ferc-no-power-grid-national-security-emergency-trump-perry-coal-subsidy-energy-regulators-congress
[Duty to govern]
*Climate Security and Presidential Constitutional Responsibility
<https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/06/12/climate-security-and-presidential-constitutional-responsibility/>*
SouthPorticoBy Bishop Garrison, Policy Fellow
In my recent essay for the UC Hastings Constitutional Law Quarterly, as
well as a follow-on piece for Inkstick Media, I discussed why under the
constitution the president has a responsibility to confront climate
change. Climate change is having a true effect on the world, reshaping
how we live and operate. Decades ago, the national security community
identified climate change as a threat to our safety and operations.
Recently, the Department of Defense reaffirmed its belief in this
threat. If national security experts have identified this issue over
years of study and debate, then the President of the United States has
an affirmative duty under the constitution to protect against it. This
analysis is taking from my essay.
*Commander in Chief Clause and the Take Care Clause*
The national security apparatus of this country has long held the view
that climate change and its effect on the environment is a threat to
military operations and national security. It follows, then, that the
president, from a legal and apolitical position, has an established
constitutional duty under Article II, Section 2, and Article II, Section
3 - the Commander in Chief Clause and Take Care Clause respectfully - to
ensure that policies are in place and laws are followed in combating
climate change and ensuring American climate security. The president has
a constitutional obligation to Congress see that any law regarding
climate change is properly enforced within the range of his or her power.
*The Constitutional Role of Congressional Oversight*
Congress has the constitutional duty of oversight to ensure that the
president upholds his or her obligations. The Tax and Spending Clause
and the Appropriation Clause ensure that Congress has the power to
oversee the lawful duties of the executive and its representatives.
Through the Necessary and Proper Clause, Congress has the sole power to
make laws and see to their proper execution.
Furthermore, the Supremacy Clause requires that the president adhere to
the terms provided by any officially signed and ratified treaty that has
been implemented domestically by federal legislation. There may be a
colorable argument that treaties that have been signed require the
president to continue to act in good faith by doing all he or she can to
have the Senate pass a resolution to ratify the treaty and have Congress
pass implementing legislation. Failure to do so violates the spirit of
the president's authority under the Supremacy Clause, the spirit of the
treaty, and is likely to hurt American foreign relations and the
country's prominence in the international community. Both factors affect
the nation's interests abroad as relationships are key to economic
interests in other countries as well as the assets necessary to achieve
future outcomes. Overall, these constitutional powers are designed to
ensure that the president adheres to his or her own responsibilities
while acting within the limits of the office's powers. It follows, then,
that given the importance associated with the destructive nature of
climate change, Congress should do all it can to ensure the president
confronts the danger.
Climate change is very real and threatens our safety, our interests and
those of our allies abroad. It is paramount that the president and his
duly appointed representatives address this threat immediately before
additional permanent damage is done. It is not simply an obligation or a
novel policy perspective, but the legal responsibility of the chief
executive of this country.
https://climateandsecurity.org/2018/06/12/climate-security-and-presidential-constitutional-responsibility/
[9 page document - fundamentals]
*Using Climate Data
<http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Using-Climate-Data-4.25.2018.pdf>*
*A primer to inform the use of climate data in financial institutions,
businesses and governments.*
- Climate models are simulations of the Earth's future conditions.
Climate projections are
based on a compilation of many models and are publicly available.
- Regional climate models and statistical downscaling improve the
resolution of data produced
by global climate models and are thus valuable options when projections
are only
needed for one location or several in the same region.
- Climate models can be used to project future trends in temperature and
precipitation, but
cannot project discrete storms or local flooding from sea level rise,
which require additional
data.
- Different time horizons of climate projections have different
strengths and limitations so it
is important to select the data product best suited to a specific
project's goal.
- There are several drivers of uncertainty in climate models and
strategies to hedge this uncertainty
can help users correctly interpret and use climate projections.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Image Source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC, from nca2014globalchange.gov
Four Twenty Seven, April 2018
Using Climate Data
INTRODUCTION CLIMATE MODELS
Financial institutions, corporations, and governments are increasingly
striving to identify and respond to risks
driven by physical climate impacts. Understanding the risks posed by
climate change for facilities or infrastructure
assets starts with conducting a risk assessment, which requires an
understanding of the physical impacts
of climate change. However, climate data in its raw form is difficult to
integrate into enterprise risk management,
financial risk modelling processes, and capital planning. This primer
provides a brief introduction to climate models
and data from a business or government perspective
http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Using-Climate-Data-4.25.2018.pdf
- - - -
[Click on the Map to get local adaptation plans]
*State and Local Adaptation Plans
<http://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/index.html>*
States and communities around the country have begun to prepare for the
climate changes that are already underway. This planning process
typically results in a document called an adaptation plan.
.. map that highlights the status of state adaptation efforts. Click on
a state to view a summary of its progress to date and to access its full
profile page. State profile pages include a detailed breakdown of each
state's adaptation work and links to local adaptation plans and
resources. Please move the map to view Alaska and Hawaii.
http://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/index.html
[Climagration]
*Universal migration predicts human movements under climate change
<https://physicsworld.com/a/universal-migration-predicts-human-movements-under-climate-change/>*
12 Jun 2018
Climate change is expected to displace millions of people through
impacts like sea level rise, crop failures, and more frequent extreme
weather. Yet scientists still cannot predict where these expected
climate-induced migrants are likely to go in the coming decades.
A new study, published today inEnvironmental Research Letters
<https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fiopscience.iop.org%2Farticle%2F10.1088%2F1748-9326%2Faac4d4&data=02%7C01%7Csimon.davies%40iop.org%7Ca7e6cf37b682499b68e908d5cd2f9e0e%7Cf9ee42e6bad04e639115f704f9ccceed%7C0%7C0%7C636640526755560929&sdata=ibFq1GHdoB0BWqRHQAtTTCcfGSb%2FAdCvNwJSSIfAAP0%3D&reserved=0>,
seeks to address this need by incorporating climate impacts into a
universal model of human mobility.
To demonstrate the efficacy of the new approach, the study focused on
the case of sea level rise (SLR) and human migration in Bangladesh,
where the authors estimate that more than two million Bangladeshis may
be displaced from their homes by 2100 because of rising sea levels alone.
The study, led by Columbia University, New York, used a probabilistic
model combined with population, geographic, and climatic data to predict
the sources, destinations, and flux of potential migrants caused by sea
level rise.
Lead author Dr Kyle Davis, from Columbia University, explained: "More
than 40 per cent of Bangladesh's population is especially vulnerable to
future sea level rise, as they live in low-lying areas that are often
exposed to extreme natural events.
"However, SLR is a very different type of migration driver from
short-lived natural hazards, in that it will make certain areas
permanently uninhabitable."
The team's results using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
scenarios showed that mean SLR will cause population displacements in 33
per cent of Bangladesh's districts, and 53 per cent under more intensive
conditions. By mid-century, they estimated nearly 900,000 people are
likely to migrate because of direct inundation from mean SLR alone.
Under the most extreme scenario, of up to 2 metre mean SLR, the number
of migrants driven by direct inundation could rise to as many as 2.1
million people by the year 2100. For all RCP scenarios, five districts -
Barisal, Chandpur, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, and Shariatpur - are the
source for 59 per cent of all migrants.
Their analysis considered mean SLR without normal high tides, so the
results - both in terms of inundated area and displaced population - are
conservative.
The researchers also estimated the extra jobs, housing and food needed
to accommodate these migrants at their destinations. They found that to
cope with the numbers likely to be displaced by 2050, 600,000 additional
jobs, 200,000 residences and 784 billion food calories will be needed.
These results have clear implications for the places that are likely to
receive incoming migrants.
Davis said: "SLR migrants are unlikely to search far for an attractive
place to move to, and the destination will generally be a trade-off
between employment opportunities, its distance from the migrants'
origin, and how vulnerable it is to SLR itself.
"We found that the city of Dhaka was consistently favoured, coming out
as the top destination in all scenarios. This means the city will need
to prepare for the largest number of migrants, which may compound the
area's already rapid urban growth."
The study also identified other risks from SLR, most notably on
livelihoods and food security.
- - - - -
Davis explained: "Inundation by the sea, and the out-migration it
causes, will have significant effects on agriculture and aquaculture.
For instance, 1000 km2 of Bangladesh's cultivated land could be
underwater by the end of the century, with an even larger area made
unusable by saltwater intrusion. Given that 48 per cent of the labour
force works in agriculture, the impact of this would be keenly felt in
terms of jobs and food security.
"Similarly, a great deal of the country's coastal aquaculture is
vulnerable to climate change impacts, and this will probably have
important nutritional and economic consequences, given that 58 per cent
of animal protein in the Bangladeshi diet comes from seafood, and the
country is the world's fifth largest aquaculture producer.
"Ultimately, we hope that the modelling tool we have developed can be
used by researchers and planners to accurately predict the relocation of
climate-induced migrants, and to enable the development of political and
economic strategies to face the challenge."
https://physicsworld.com/a/universal-migration-predicts-human-movements-under-climate-change/
[clips from NASA news release]
June 13, 2018 RELEASE 18-053
*Ramp-Up in Antarctic Ice Loss Speeds Sea Level Rise
<https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/index.html>*
Ice losses from Antarctica have tripled since 2012, increasing global
sea levels by 0.12 inch (3 millimeters) in that timeframe alone,
according to a major new international climate assessment funded by NASA
and ESA (European Space Agency).
According to the study, ice losses from Antarctica are causing sea
levels to rise faster today than at any time in the past 25 years.
Results of the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE)
were published Wednesday in the journal Nature.
"This is the most robust study of the ice mass balance of Antarctica to
date," said assessment team co-lead Erik Ivins at NASA's Jet Propulsion
Laboratory (JPL). "It covers a longer period than our 2012 IMBIE study,
has a larger pool of participants, and incorporates refinements in our
observing capability and an improved ability to assess uncertainties."...
-- - -
At the northern tip of the continent, ice-shelf collapse at the
Antarctic Peninsula has driven an increase of 27.6 billion tons (25
billion metric tons) in ice loss per year since the early 2000s.
Meanwhile, the team found the East Antarctic ice sheet has remained
relatively balanced during the past 25 years, gaining an average of 5.5
billion tons (5 billion metric tons) of ice per year.
Antarctica's potential contribution to global sea level rise from its
land-held ice is almost 7.5 times greater than all other sources of
land-held ice in the world combined. The continent stores enough frozen
water to raise global sea levels by 190 feet (58 meters), if it were to
melt entirely. Knowing how much ice it's losing is key to understanding
the impacts of climate change now and its pace in the future.
https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/index.html
[more effort needed to eat your vegetables]
*Predicted environmental changes could significantly reduce global
production of vegetables
<https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180611152745.htm>*
Date: June 11, 2018
Source: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Summary:
The global production of vegetables and legumes, which are an important
part of healthy diets, could be significantly reduced through predicted
future changes to the environment, according to new research.
The study, led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
(LSHTM), is the first systematically to examine the extent to which
projected changes such as increases in temperature and reduced water
availability could affect the production and nutritional quality of
common crops such as tomatoes, leafy vegetables and pulses.
If no action is taken to reduce the negative impacts on agricultural
yields, the researchers estimate that the environmental changes
predicted to occur by mid- to end-century in water availability and
ozone concentrations would reduce average yields of vegetables and
legumes by 35% and 9% respectively. In hot settings such as Southern
Europe and large parts of Africa and South Asia, increased air
temperatures would reduce average vegetable yields by an estimated 31%.
Environmental changes, including climate change, water scarcity and
biodiversity loss, are predicted to become more profound in the 21st
century - posing significant challenges to global agriculture, food
security and nutrition. While there is growing evidence that predicted
future changes in temperature and rainfall will lead to significant
reductions in the yields of many staple crops such as rice and wheat,
the impacts on vegetables and legumes - important constituents of
healthy diets -are largely unknown.
To address this evidence gap the researchers conducted a systematic
review of all the available evidence from experimental studies published
since 1975 on the impacts of changes in environmental exposures on the
yield and nutritional quality of vegetables and legumes. Experiments
included in the review were conducted in 40 countries...
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180611152745.htm
[important decision]
*Federal Judge to Decide Fate of New York City Climate Lawsuit
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/06/13/new-york-city-climate-lawsuit-keenan/>*
Three oil companies on Wednesday asked a federal judge to toss out a
climate lawsuit by New York City, arguing that the city's claims are
false and involve issues beyond the court's jurisdiction.
Lawyers for the companies and the city appeared before U.S. District
Court Judge John F. Keenan in Manhattan to debate whether the case has
legal standing to continue. The city, which filed the lawsuit against
five major oil companies in January, contends that fossil fuel companies
should help foot the city's escalating costs of addressing climate change.
It could take Keenan several months to decide on the oil companies'
motion to dismiss.
Three of the five defendants - ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips -
filed a motion to dismiss, while Shell and British Petroleum have not.
The city said in the lawsuit and argued in court that the five companies
including Shell and BP, have long known that their products are
responsible for global warming, which leads to rising sea level and more
severe storms and flooding.
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/06/13/new-york-city-climate-lawsuit-keenan/
[easy to predict]
*Growing Number of Bangladeshis Flee Rising Waters
<https://www.ecowatch.com/bangladesh-floods-climate-refugees-2577718275.html>*
By Kieran Cooke
As another monsoon season begins, huge numbers of homeless Bangladeshis
are once again bracing themselves against the onslaught of floods and
the sight of large chunks of land being devoured by rising water levels.
Bangladesh, on the Bay of Bengal, is low-lying and crisscrossed by a web
of rivers: two thirds of the country's land area is less than five
meters (approximately 16 feet) above sea level. With 166 million people,
it's one of the poorest and most densely populated countries on Earth -
and one of the most threatened by climate change.
A recently released report by the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF)
says rises in sea levels caused by climate change could result in
Bangladesh losing more than 10 percent of its land area by mid-century,
resulting in the displacement of 15 million people.
The country is already experiencing some of the fastest-recorded sea
level rises in the world, says the EJF, a UK-based organization that
lobbies for environmental security to be viewed as a basic human right.
- - -- -
"There should be clarifications on the obligations of states to persons
displaced by climate change, with new legal definitions," says EJF.
"Definitions of climate-induced migration are urgently needed to ensure
a rights-based approach and give clarity to the legal status of 'climate
refugees'; these must be developed without delay."
https://www.ecowatch.com/bangladesh-floods-climate-refugees-2577718275.html
- - - -
[American climate refugees]
*Jeff Goodell on American Climate Refugees - the New Joads
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnOwYmIreGQ>*
greenmanbucket
Published on Jun 6, 2018
Senior Rolling Stone writer Jeff Goodell discusses spreading cases of
climate refugees - not just internationally, but in the US
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnOwYmIreGQ
- - - -
[Who knew? Shell knew.]
*Shell Knew About Climate Migration 40 Years Ago. This is What it Told
the Public
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/06/40-years-ago-shell-knew-about-climate-migration-story-told-publicly-instead>*
By Chloe Farand
Share
Thirty years ago, oil company Shell was warned in private that its own
products were responsible for climate change which in turn could lead to
large scale climate migration.
Yet over the following decade, the company publicly justified the
ongoing need for fossil fuels as the only realistic way to achieve
sustainable development and lift vulnerable communities out of poverty.
Shell has repeatedly used the arguments of population growth and
increasing energy demand at the heart of its public pronouncements about
its role in driving economic and sustainable development.
But Shell also knew that burning fossil fuels would "alter the
environment in such a way" that it would affect parts of the world's
"habitability" and could lead to new migration patterns.
There is a clear relationship between climate change and forced
migration as crops fail and extreme weather increases. But recent
research also points to the impossibility of separating climate change
from the myriad of other factors that drive people to leave their homes.
Documents first uncovered by Jelmer Mommers
<https://decorrespondent.nl/jelmermommers> of De Correspondent
<https://decorrespondent.nl/>, and published on Climate Files
<http://www.climatefiles.com/>, show the discrepancy between what Shell
was told in confidence and what it decided to say in public. Throughout
the 1990s, the documents show that Shell failed to mention in public
that burning fossil fuels could result in people being forced to leave
their homes because of sea-level rise and that entire regions of the
world could be made uninhabitable.
- - video https://youtu.be/wBbtFcV12mo 1988: 'Parts of the world could
become uninhabitable' <https://youtu.be/wBbtFcV12mo>
DeSmog UK previously reported on a confidential 1988 report called the
Greenhouse Effect, which showed that Shell knew about the impact its
fossil fuel products were having on climate change. The report also set
out how climate change consequences, such as sea level rise, could have
a direct impact on people's livelihood and migration patterns.
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/06/06/40-years-ago-shell-knew-about-climate-migration-story-told-publicly-instead
- - - -
[Read the Shell documents for yourself]
*1988 Shell Confidential Report "The Greenhouse Effect"
<http://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1988-shell-report-greenhouse/>*
Throughout the report, Shell acknowledges the central role of fossil
fuels, and oil in particular, in increasing CO2 emissions. While the
authors note the uncertainties and limitations of contemporary climate
models - particularly around the timing and intensity of impacts - there
is little ambiguity about the responsibility of the oil industry. The
report states, "Although CO2 is emitted to the atmosphere through
several natural processes… the main cause of increasing CO2
concentrations is considered to be fossil fuel burning."
Later, the authors quantify Shell's products' unique contribution to
global CO2 emissions by segment. According to this internal analysis,
Shell's products (oil, gas, and coal) were responsible for 4% of total
global carbon emissions in 1984. This is one of the earliest examples of
carbon accounting by an oil major, and consistent with Richard Heede's
"Carbon Majors
<https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-pvpXB8rp67dmhmsueWaUczHS5XyPy4p/view?usp=sharing>"
methodology of tracing carbon responsibility back to the producers.
http://www.climatefiles.com/shell/1988-shell-report-greenhouse/
- - - -
[you too can be a spy!]
*Climate Doc Leaks <http://www.climatedocleaks.com/>* is a repository
for whistleblowers wanting to report on how energy companies, public
relations, law, and lobbying firms, and others, are systematically
undermining efforts to tackle climate change - such as the recently
exposed scandal with Exxon.
http://www.climatedocleaks.com/
- - -
[Learn how to leak]
*HAVE DOCUMENTS YOU WANT TO SEND TO HELP SAVE OUR PLANET?
<http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-information-safely-securely/>*
<http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-information-safely-securely/>Here are
three ways that you can send us documents: by EMAIL
<http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-documents-safely-by-email/>,
by PHONE/VOICEMAIL
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to an actual MAILBOX.
<http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-documents-safely-by-mail/>
We
strongly suggest consulting additional resources before providing us
materials or
blowing the whistle on an employer. Helpful resources
include/The Art of Anonymous Activism/
<http://www.peer.org/assets/docs/The%20Art%20of%20Anonymous%20Activism.pdf>,
a joint project ofPOGO <http://www.pogo.org/about/contact.html>,
PEER
<http://www.peer.org/state-federal-watch/state-watch/>, andGAP
<http://www.whistleblowers.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=37&Itemid=66>and
websites likeNational Whistleblower Center
<http://www.whistleblowers.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemid=42>.
http://www.climatedocleaks.com/how-to-leak-information-safely-securely/
[Academic video lecture]
Ecological and Psychological Perspectives on Climate Change
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHbuvx6u2Sk>
Published on Feb 20, 2018
Science for the Public Science Literacy 2018 series at MIT, February 13,
2018. Briir an Helmuth, Ph.D., Northeastern University; and John Coley,
Ph.D., Northeastern University. This team combines their respective
experiences and expertise to analyze why people differ in considering
the facts of climate change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHbuvx6u2Sk
[Old news from Aug 2017]
*How climate change is a 'death sentence' in Afghanistan's highlands
<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/28/how-climate-change-is-death-sentence-afghanistan-highlands-global-warming>*
Global warming should be taken as seriously as fighting insurgents, say
those witnessing the savage impact first-hand
- - - - -
Farmers say unanimously that temperatures have risen over the past
decades. Rain is scarcer and more unpredictable. "People know about
climate change even if they don't call it that," says Fatima Akbari, the
UNEP's country assistant. "They know all about change in water and weather."
Despite 15 years as one of the world's biggest receivers of
international aid, much of it to agriculture, Afghanistan remains
woefully underdeveloped and largely defenceless against jolts from
nature. Western donors primarily poured money into short-sighted
programmes such as heavy engineering and cash-for-work schemes, designed
for "quick impact", Scanlon says...
- - - - -
Women are particularly affected by erratic weather. In Borghason, when
the rains fail, farmers switch crops from barley to wheat, which is less
ideal as livestock feed, says Chaman, an older woman in the village. As
a result, women - who are tasked with fetching water and tending
livestock - have longer distances to hike.
Villages in Bamiyan exemplify how climate change can hamper the ability
of families to sustain themselves. According to Prince Zaher, they show
why global warming should be taken as seriously as fighting insurgents.
"Terrorism is not going to be lingering here for ever," he says. "But
climate change is an ongoing death sentence."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/28/how-climate-change-is-death-sentence-afghanistan-highlands-global-warming
[Oops, Antarctica is loosing mass]
*Jonathan Bamber on Antarctic Precipitation
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McQyzj1wxw>*
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McQyzj1wxw>greenmanbucket
Published on Jun 13, 2018
If the planet warms, and the atmosphere can hold more moisture (that's
physics) - then will increased precipitation over Antarctica cancel out
ice loss?
Glaciologist Jonathan Bamber PhD of the University of Bristol expands.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4McQyzj1wxw
*Debunked: The G20 Clean Gas Myth
<http://priceofoil.org/2018/06/11/debunked-g20-clean-gas-myth/>*
Matt Maiorana, June 11, 2018
Oil Change International in collaboration with:
African Climate Reality Project, Amazon Watch, Asian Peoples' Movement
on Debt & Development, Christian Aid, Earthworks, Engajamundo, Food &
Water Europe, Food & Water Watch, Greenpeace, Health of Mother Earth
Foundation, Leave it in the Ground Initiative, Legambiente, Observatori
del Deute en la Globalització, Platform, Rainforest Action Network,
Re:Common, Stand.earth, UK Youth Climate Coalition, urgewald, and 350.org
June 2018
Download the full report.
<http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2018/06/debunked_g20_eng_07_web.pdf>
Descargar en espanol.
<http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2018/06/debunked_g20_esp_04_web.pdf>
This report focuses on fossil gas development in the G20 and debunking
the myth of fossil gas as a clean transition fuel. The report finds that:
*The concept of fossil gas as a "bridge fuel" to a stable climate is a
myth*. Emissions from existing gas fields, alongside existing oil and
coal development, already exceed carbon budgets aligned with the Paris
Agreement. Even if all coal mines were shut down tomorrow, the gas and
oil in already-developed fields alone would take the world beyond the
carbon budget for a 50% chance at staying below 1.5 degrees C of global
warming.
Despite this reality, *G20 countries are projected to host investment of
over $1.6 trillion USD in new gas projects by 2030*. If this happens,
emissions unlocked through 2050 would make it extremely difficult to
meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which has been signed by all G20
members.
Five countries - the United States, Russia, Australia, China, and Canada
- are projected to be responsible for 75% of capital expenditures in gas
production in G20 countries from 2018-2030.
Argentina's push to open massive shale gas deposits to investment risks
undermining its commitment to the Paris Agreement and the work of the
Energy Transitions Working Group during its G20 Presidency.
This report is one of two reports published simultaneously that question
the ongoing push for expanding fossil gas production in G20 countries.
This report, 'Debunked: The G20 Clean Gas Myth,' focuses on fossil gas
development in the G20 and debunking the myth of fossil gas as a clean
transition fuel.
The partner report, 'Debunked: The Promise of Argentina's Vaca Muerta
Shale Play,' published by Greenpeace in Argentina, focuses on the myths
surrounding the development of shale gas in Argentina, particularly the
Vaca Muerta shale play. It is available at:
http://priceofoil.org/debunked-vaca-muerta
http://priceofoil.org/2018/06/11/debunked-g20-clean-gas-myth/
[into the details]
*What are average global temperature targets hiding?
<http://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2018/06/a-1-5-c-warmer-world-could-go-in-a-lot-of-different-directions/>*
<http://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2018/06/a-1-5-c-warmer-world-could-go-in-a-lot-of-different-directions/>by
Sarah DeWeerdt | Jun 12, 2018
The ideal goal of the Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to 1.5
degrees C above pre-industrial levels. By "warming," scientists and
policy makers mean an increase in global average, or mean, temperature.
But this average hides a lot of complexity, and scientific papers - let
alone broader climate change discussions - rarely spell that out.
"Global mean temperature is a construct," an international group of
researchers writes in a paper published last week in Nature - which has
got to be one of the more postmodern sentences ever to be published in
the prestigious science journal. "This deceptively simple
characterization may lead to an oversimplified perception of
human-induced climate change."
What they mean is that the effects of a given average temperature
increase depend on the pathway we take to get there, as well as how
climate averages and extremes change in different regions. After all,
climate change is global, but its consequences for people, economies,
and ecosystems happen at the local level, and often as a result of
extreme events: droughts, floods, hurricanes, and so on.
To fill out the picture of what a "1.5 degrees C warmer world" could
look like, the researchers dug into the details of several well accepted
computer climate models. Instead of focusing on the average warming
these models predict, they shone a light on the far extremes and the
long tails of probability.
Their analysis showed that even if global average temperature only
increases by 1.5 degrees C, the coldest nights in the Arctic are likely
to be 7 degrees C warmer, and could be 8 degrees C warmer than
pre-industrial temperatures. Meanwhile, the hottest days in the
contiguous United States will likely increase by more than 4 degrees C,
and possibly 5 degrees C.
"Highly unusual and even unprecedented temperatures may occur even in a
1.5 degrees C climate," they write. So, even if we meet the Paris
Agreement goal, there could be much more extreme impacts for some people
and regions.
How we get to 1.5 degrees C - and how fast - also matters, the
researchers found. Many climate models that predict this level of
warming in the year 2100 include a substantial probability of
"overshoot" - that is, global average temperature will breach the 1.5
degrees C threshold sometime this century, before falling below it again
by century's end.
This is an increasingly likely possibility because we are already so
close to that threshold. The latest analyses suggest that global average
temperature has increased about 1 degree C since the pre-industrial era.
And we're still pumping huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Overshooting the 1.5 degree C goal even temporarily could lead to
permanent loss of some species or ecosystems. It would essentially mean
faster warming - less time for species to move to areas that are now
suitable for them, and less time for people to build adaptation
infrastructure.
And, because some parts of the climate system lag behind average
temperature increase, "overshoot" would commit the world to more ice
sheet melting, ocean warming, and sea level rise than would occur if
global average temperature increased more gradually and only reached the
1.5 degrees C threshold late in the century.
Finally, computer climate models are probabilistic. So a 1.5 degrees C
scenario is actually one in which global average temperature in 2100
has, say, a 66% probability of remaining below this threshold. In other
words, even if we hew to the emissions limits specified in a "1.5
degrees C" model from this day forward, there's still a one-in-three
chance that warming will be more extreme.
However, when the researchers analyzed the "worst-case scenarios" of
climate models, they found that "the worst outcomes of the 1.5 degrees C
scenarios are similar to the probable outcomes of the 2 degrees C
scenarios," they write. Another way to think of this is that if you want
to avoid the worst possibilities associated with 2 degrees C of warming,
then aiming for 1.5 degrees C is a pretty good strategy to accomplish
that. So even though it's more complicated than it first appears, 1.5
degrees C holds up as a benchmark for avoiding even bigger catastrophes.
Source: Seneviratne S.I. et al. "*The many possible climates from the
Paris Agreement's aim of 1.5 degrees C of warming
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0181-4>*." Nature. 2018.
*This Day in Climate History - June 14, 1993 - from D.R. Tucker*
June 14, 1993: The New York Times reports on the fossil-fuel industry's
successful war against the BTU tax.
http://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/14/us/tax-s-demise-illustrates-first-rule-of-lobbying-work-work-work.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm
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