[TheClimate.Vote] June 27, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Jun 27 10:25:44 EDT 2018
/June 27, 2018/
[New Gojira, let's listen to some heavy metal music]
*Watch Gojira deliver stunning studio version of Global Warming
<https://www.loudersound.com/news/watch-gojira-deliver-stunning-studio-version-of-global-warming>*
By Scott Munro
Gojira release studio version of their 2005 track Global Warming to
raise awareness of "one of the most important challenges of our time"
Gojira have released a live studio video showcasing their track Global
Warming.
The song originally appeared on their 2005 album From Mars To Sirius,
with the band recording the new take on the song at Silver Cord Studio,
New York, in April this year.
Gojira say in a statement: "A few weeks ago, we played Global Warming
together for the first time since the recording of From Mars To Sirius.
We never played it live before, as it is a challenging one to play and
place in a set list.
"It's emotionally heavy, and would almost 'hurt' the rest of the songs
in a way. We just really wanted to do this on camera for our fans.
"Global warming is a reality and a relevant topic - we feel it's good to
be reminded of one of the most important challenges of our time: How to
grow as a species without being a parasite to our planet, the only home
we have.
"'We will see our children growing' is a mantra for future generations,
and in a figurative way we hope the children in all of us will grow,
evolve, and take action for a more compassionate and meaningful world."
Watch the video below.
*Gojira - Global Warming [Live at the Silver Cord Studio May 2018]
<https://youtu.be/8DiWzvE52ZY>*
https://youtu.be/8DiWzvE52ZY
[future analysis from Bloomberg: ]
*New Energy Outlook 2018
<https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/#toc-download>*
NEO is our annual long-term economic analysis of the world's power
sector out to 2050.
Focused on the electricity system, our New Energy Outlook (NEO) combines
the expertise of over 65 market and technology specialists in 12
countries to provide a unique view of how the market will evolve.
What's new in the 2018 NEO?
What sets NEO apart is that we focus on technology that is driving
change in markets and business models across the sector, such as solar
PV, onshore and offshore wind and battery technology. In addition, we
put special focus on changing electricity demand, electric vehicles,
air-conditioning, and the growing role of consumers. NEO includes our
price forecasts for coal, oil and gas around the world, and assesses the
impact of the energy transition on fossil fuel demand and materials.
Each year we aim to make a number of changes to NEO to continuously
improve the completeness and complexity of our analysis. In 2018, we
have included the following in the client report:
Extended our outlook from 2040 to 2050.
Expanded our new-build algorithm to include utility-scale lithium-ion
batteries - both stand-alone and paired with renewables - for energy
arbitrage as well as peaking capacity.
Expanded our assessment of new air-conditioning load to include Brazil,
Indonesia, India, Mexico, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand.
Added chapters on materials demand, market design and coal phase-out
scenarios.
Updated our PV and wind cost and lithium-ion battery cost curves with
2017 data.
Updated our comparative cost of energy analysis to better capture
difference between technologies and the cost of bulk electricity and
flexibility, and enhanced the digital experience when interacting with
our data models.
In addition, we have updated a number of the proprietary models central
to this forecast, including: our EV and small-scale solar PV and storage
consumer uptake models, and our electricity demand fundamentals model.
While BNEF clients get access to the full NEO report including the
content above, an excerpt of the findings in a free public report.
"Wind and solar are set to surge to almost "50 by 50" - 50% of world
generation by 2050 - on the back of precipitous reductions in cost, and
the advent of cheaper and cheaper batteries that will enable electricity
to be stored and discharged to meet shifts in demand and supply. Coal
shrinks to just 11% of global electricity generation by 2050."
1 - "50 by 50"
Cheap renewable energy and batteries fundamentally reshape the
electricity system. Batteries boom means that half of the world's
electricity by 2050 will be generated from wind and solar.
2 - PV, wind and batteries trifecta.
The cost of an average PV plant falls 71% by 2050. Wind energy is
getting cheaper too, and we expect it to drop 58% by 2050. PV and
wind are already cheaper than building new large-scale coal and gas
plants. Batteries are also dropping dramatically in cost. Cheap
batteries enable wind and solar to run when the wind isn't blowing
and the sun isn't shining.
3 - Coal is the biggest loser in this outlook.
Coal will shrink to just 11% of global electricity generation by
2050, from 38% currently.
4 - Gas consumption for power generation increases only modestly out
to 2050
despite growing capacity, as more and more gas-fired facilities are
either dedicated peakers or run at lower capacity factors helping to
balance variable renewables, rather than run flat-out
around-the-clock. Gas use declines dramatically in Europe, grows in
China and picks up materially in India beyond 2040.
5 - Electric vehicles add around 3,461TWh of new electricity demand
globally by 2050, equal to 9% of total demand.
Time-of-use tariffs and dynamic charging further support renewables
integration: they allow vehicle owners to choose to charge during
high-supply, low-cost periods, and so help to shift demand to
periods when cheap renewables are running.
High-level findings of NEO 2018 are available in a free public report:
https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/#toc-download
[A superb essay in The Guardian - clips:]
*Rising seas: 'Florida is about to be wiped off the map'
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/26/rising-seas-florida-climate-change-elizabeth-rush>*
Harold Wanless, or Hal, chair of the geology department, speak about sea
level rise. "Only 7% of the heat being trapped by greenhouse gases is
stored in the atmosphere," Hal begins. "Do you know where the other 93%
lives?"
A teenager, wrists lined in aquamarine beaded bracelets, rubs sleep from
her eyes. Returns her head to its resting position in her palm. The man
seated behind me roots around in his briefcase for a breakfast bar. No
one raises a hand.
"In the ocean," Hal continues. "That heat is expanding the ocean, which
is contributing to sea level rise, and it is also, more importantly,
creating the setting for something we really don't want to have happen:
rapid melt of ice."...
- - - - -
But Hal says it doesn't matter whether you live six feet above sea level
or sixty-five, because he, like James Hansen, believes that all of these
predictions are, to put it mildly, very, very low. "The rate of sea
level rise is currently doubling every seven years, and if it were to
continue in this manner, Ponzi scheme style, we would have 205 feet of
sea level rise by 2095," he says. "And while I don't think we are going
to get that much water by the end of the century, I do think we have to
take seriously the possibility that we could have something like 15 feet
by then."...
- - - -
But Hal says it doesn't matter whether you live six feet above sea level
or sixty-five, because he, like James Hansen, believes that all of these
predictions are, to put it mildly, very, very low. "The rate of sea
level rise is currently doubling every seven years, and if it were to
continue in this manner, Ponzi scheme style, we would have 205 feet of
sea level rise by 2095," he says. "And while I don't think we are going
to get that much water by the end of the century, I do think we have to
take seriously the possibility that we could have something like 15 feet
by then."
It's a little after nine o'clock. Hal's sons stop sipping their lattes
and the oceanographic scientist behind me puts down his handful of
M&M's. If Hal Wanless is right, every single object I have seen over the
past 72 hours - the periodic table of elements hanging above his left
shoulder, the buffet currently loaded with refreshments, the smoothie
stand at my seaside hotel, the beach umbrellas and oxygen bars, the
Johnny Rockets and seashell shop, the lecture hall with its hundreds of
mostly empty teal swivel chairs - will all be underwater in the
not-so-distant future...
- - - -
It's a little after nine o'clock. Hal's sons stop sipping their lattes
and the oceanographic scientist behind me puts down his handful of
M&M's. If Hal Wanless is right, every single object I have seen over the
past 72 hours - the periodic table of elements hanging above his left
shoulder, the buffet currently loaded with refreshments, the smoothie
stand at my seaside hotel, the beach umbrellas and oxygen bars, the
Johnny Rockets and seashell shop, the lecture hall with its hundreds of
mostly empty teal swivel chairs - will all be underwater in the
not-so-distant future...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/26/rising-seas-florida-climate-change-elizabeth-rush
- - - - -
[videos of Dr Hal Wanless - this one is 30 seconds]
*UM Professor, Dr. Wanless on Sea Level Rise
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwJijb_tdbA>*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwJijb_tdbA
- - -
[This community meeting may be the 2015 presentation mentioned in the
article]
*Sea Level Rise: What's Our Next Move? Day 1: Debate 1- Dr. Harold R.
Wanless <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp8KDL1TSKg>*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp8KDL1TSKg
- - - - - -
[Book Review]
*RISING: DISPATCHES FROM THE NEW AMERICAN SHORE
<https://www.forewordreviews.com/reviews/rising-9781571313676/>*
Elizabeth Rush - Milkweed Editions (Jun 12, 2018)
Hardcover $26.00 (320pp) 978-1-57131-367-6
Obsessed with the rate of sea-level rise, environmental writer Elizabeth
Rush traveled extensively along the US coasts and as far afield as
Bangladesh, interviewing concerned scientists and coastal dwellers
directly affected by devastating floods and catastrophic storms.
Her conclusion: the future we feared is already here. In the time it has
taken to write this book, the sea level's predicted end-of-century rise
has doubled. "If sea level rise continues to accelerate at even half
this speed we are looking at a rise of well over ten feet in the next
eighty years," she writes.
Scientists have found that Earth's climate doesn't change slowly and
steadily. Instead, the transition from ice age to greenhouse conditions
and back again is often rapid and dramatic. It has happened before, but
this is the first time that humans will be here to see it. And it won't
be pretty.
The prediction is that by 2050 there will be two hundred million
refugees worldwide due to climate change that has been exacerbated by
human intervention in the landscape. Of these, two million will be from
the state of Louisiana, whose southern edge is eroding at a rate that's
among the fastest on the planet.
Rush explains the role of thriving wetlands and tidal marshes in
securing coastal land and in providing habitat for threatened or
endangered species, and how short-sighted laws have allowed filling and
hardscaping them for economic gain. In response, coastal animals and
insects are relocating, and even plants are moving inland, slowly
stretching their rhizomes away from the sea.
What Rush lays before us in her book is extremely disturbing: that our
only hope appears to be retreat - evacuation of the coasts and
relocation of the things we value - and that we must take radical, even
unthinkable, action at once.
Reviewed by Kristine Morris - May/June 2018
https://www.forewordreviews.com/reviews/rising-9781571313676/
[facing danger]
*Silencing Climate Science
<http://columbiaclimatelaw.com/resources/silencing-science-tracker/silencing-climate-science/>*
http://columbiaclimatelaw.com/resources/silencing-science-tracker/silencing-climate-science/
This page lists government actions targeting scientific research and
education on climate change. The listed actions are also included in the
table on the SST home page, along with actions targeting other
(non-climate) environmental science fields.
Agency: EPA
http://columbiaclimatelaw.com/silencing-science-tracker/agency/us-epa/
[Planetary Security Conference]
*New analysis on how climate change reinforces nuclear threats
<https://www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/>*
PSI consortium partner CCS just released a new report and briefers that
address the various ways that climate change effects, nuclear trends,
and security challenges are combining around the world. Many countries
such as Nigeria, Jordan, Bangladesh, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are dealing
with numerous internal climatic, economic, security, demographic, and
environmental pressures as they pursue nuclear energy. Concerns are also
growing that Russia may become a dominant nuclear supplier to these
countries. Where nuclear and climate issues are combining in specific
countries with other issues such as terrorism, nation-state competition,
weak institutions, and mass movement of people, the international
community must understand how this nexus of challenges could affect
stability and security. Moreover, these issues together stand to affect
geopolitics and the strength of global governance institutions in
profound ways.
Building on the success of their first groundbreaking report from 2017,
today the Working Group on Climate Nuclear, and Security Affairs, a
cross-sectoral group of distinguished nuclear affairs, climate and
security experts chaired by the Center for Climate and Security,
released a second report and series of briefers based on its 2018
deliberations. These papers outline the challenges the world is facing
as well as practical recommendations for how addressing them as nexus
threats could provide efficient and effective ways of reducing security
risks.
*The report:*
This report provides summaries of the insights produced via breakout
sessions the Working Group held during its January 2018 meeting to focus
on three questions: "First, can we devise a flexible policy toolkit to
allow public and private actors to address the nexus of climate, nuclear
and security challenges? Second, for high-priority regions in which
these trends are present, how might we reduce the odds they will combine
in destabilizing ways? Finally, how can we begin to improve how we
communicate with the public and policymakers regarding these types of
complex yet existential risks?" It then briefly describes select themes
that emerged from the Working Group's deliberations and highlights
specific recommendations.
A critical task of the Working Group was to explore policy tools that
could be used to mitigate the grave concerns stemming from nuclear,
climate, and security risks interacting. As John Conger and Shiloh
Fetzek describe in their report of this discussion, "Multilateral
regimes have been created, on the one hand, to address nuclear safety
and proliferation, and climate risks on another, but they don't
interact. Building this bridge would go a long way toward continuing to
identify and mitigate risks at the climate-nuclear-security nexus."
Analytical tools could be used to "combine climate, nuclear, and
security data into risk assessments that would help define priorities
and push for early responses to prevent grave threats in areas where
nuclear materials and facilities reside."
The Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction allows for a strong
platform for increasing resilience as the world faces mounting costs of
natural disasters. However, it could go further to "explicitly explore
what these disasters could mean around nuclear facilities.", according
to the report.
Currently, effective communication on the risks of the
nuclear-security-climate nexus is lacking. Indeed, improving
communication regarding this nexus will require continuing processes to
identify shared values, especially when power politics and
climate-sensitive regions are concerned. We can think of "Russia's
dominance in securing deals to build and operate nuclear reactors in
regions such as the Middle East" for example.
*The briefers:*
The briefers show the importance of collaboration between security
experts in the nuclear affairs and climate security spheres (as well as
in other security disciplines) to support common interests like
strengthening international security institutions and norms. The reports
also conclude that communities must also collaborate in pushing for the
sustainment of critical scientific and technical work that can provide
the data, information, and solutions needed to navigate complex risks,
including robust monitoring and modelling systems and the wide-ranging
capabilities of U.S. National Laboratories.
These short papers mark the first-ever step in exploring how to reduce
emerging threats as nuclear trends, the effects of climate change, and
underlying security dynamics collide in regions such as South Asia and
the Middle East. Amidst growing nuclear and climate threats, this
pioneering collaborative group has identified potential new and
unexplored risks where these issues collide and anticipatory solutions
to those risks.
First, "the complexity of the climate change-nuclear-security nexus
requires new tools for monitoring hotspots and testing government
responses. Building that baseline knowledge would inform policy-makers
on the nature of these intersecting threats. Stress tests and climate
and nuclear crisis scenario exercises will be important inputs into
understanding the nature of climate-nuclear-security risks."
Unfortunately, inadequate funding limits the development of new tools,
intensifying competition for a finite pool of funds. With greater
financing, the public and private sectors could bolster the development
and implementation of risk management measures and transnational
mechanisms such as the UNFCCC Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss
and Damage, which was designed to track and compensate losses from
climate change. It should include nuclear facilities since they fall
under the energy security category and are sensitive to climate-related
threats.
*The report and two briefers are available online at:*
Working Group on Climate, Nuclear and Security Affairs - "Report Two: A
Clear Path for Complex Threats
<https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/working-group-on-climate-nuclear-security-affairs-report-two_2018_05.pdf>"**
Breakout Briefer 1: "Stability At Stake: Addressing Critical Regions
Facing Complex Climate, Security, and Nuclear Risks
<https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/working-group-on-climate-nuclear-security-affairs_breakout-briefer_crisis-regions_2018_05.pdf>"
Breakout Briefer 2: "Expanding The Climate-Nuclear-Security Toolkit
<https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/working-group-on-climate-nuclear-security-affairs_breakout-briefer_toolkit_2018_05.pdf>"
https://www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/
- - - - -
*The Hague Declaration on Planetary Security
<https://www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/signees>*
PDF The Hague Declaration.pdf
<https://www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/sites/default/files/2017-12/The_Hague_Declaration.pdf>
https://www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/sites/default/files/2017-12/The_Hague_Declaration.pdf
https://www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/signees
[video questions of risk]
*How Much Climate Change is too Much? The "Reasons for Concern" about
Climate Change <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIvnQo0wZ4c>*
Atkinson Center
Published on Mar 19, 2018
Cornell University - 2018 Climate Change Seminar by Brian O'Neill
http://www.atkinson.cornell.edu/events/ClimateChangeSem.php
Recorded at Cornell University - March 12, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIvnQo0wZ4c
[Washington Post reports...]
*Climate change is a top spiritual priority for these religious leaders
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/>*
ABOARD THE SHIP MORE SPACIOUS THAN THE HEAVENS - Off the island of
Spetses, the leader of 300 million Christians worldwide told a group of
nearly 200 religious leaders, academics and activists that they needed
to move beyond intellectualism when it came to the environment.
"What remains for us is to preach what we practice," said Orthodox
Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of Constantinople. "Now we must begin
the long and difficult way from the mind to the heart . . . May God
guide you in your service to his people and the care of his creation."...
- - - -
"For humans to cause species to become extinct and to destroy the
biological diversity of God's creation; for humans to degrade the
integrity of Earth by causing changes in its climate, by stripping the
Earth of its natural forests, or destroying its wetlands; for humans to
injure other humans with disease, for humans to contaminate the Earth's
waters, its land, its air, and its life, with poisonous substances," he
told a crowd that included then-Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt.
"These are sins."
Pope Francis has likewise drawn global attention to environmental
activism: On the same day Bartholomew was concluding his conference in
Greece, the pope brought the leaders of multinational energy and
investment firms to the Vatican to discuss the path forward on climate
change.
At a time when some political leaders have become more cautious about
- or have outright rejected - policies aimed at curbing greenhouse
gas emissions, several major faith leaders are making environmental care
a top spiritual priority.
But they have also struggled to inspire some of their congregants to action.
"Even when there's a will, there is not always a willingness to act,"
said Nigerian Cardinal John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan, one of two cardinals
who traveled to the patriarch's conference. "The spirit is willing, but
very often, the flesh is weak."
Still, Onaiyekan and others who had journeyed to Greece for the
three-day "Green Attica" conference emphasized that they would persist
in raising the moral and ethical dimensions of climate change.
In Nigeria, Onaiyekan said in an interview that "there is a kind of
ambiguity about climate change" because it is "a nation largely
dependent on oil revenue." But those living on the Niger Delta have
experienced the damage associated with oil production firsthand, he
said. It would be naive, he said, to expect oil companies and
governments to shift their practices on their own.
"If you are waiting for them to change, you will wait till Jesus comes
back again," he said. "We feel the only area where we can actually make
an impact is to constantly keep challenging our leaders to stop killing
us. Stop killing your people."
Francis - who issued the first papal encyclical focused solely on the
environment, "Laudato Si," in 2015 - pressed this message during his
private audience this month with executives from ExxonMobil, Eni, BP,
Royal Dutch Shell, Equinor and Pemex.
Calling climate change "a challenge of epochal proportions," the pope
said that the private sector had taken modest steps toward incorporating
climate risks into its business models and funding renewable energy.
"Progress has indeed been made," he told the group as he wrapped up the
two-day session. "But is it enough?"...
- - - - -
This month's gathering - which included stops on the islands of
Spetses and Hydra - included similarly dire warnings from researchers.
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, who directs the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research, described the current changes arising from fossil-fuel
burning as "disruption on a global scale."
Without a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, Schellnhuber told
the audience, large swaths of Nigeria, the Philippines and elsewhere
"will become uninhabitable" because they will be too hot for humans to
live in.
Some of the most fiery rhetoric came from Columbia University Earth
Institute director Jeffrey Sachs, who spoke to the group in Greece
before departing for the Vatican to participate in the papal climate
conference. In an impassioned speech, Sachs charted the historic
development of the global capitalist economy, arguing that its
foundation upon the idea of "limited liability" has meant that
corporations will not take responsibility for the economic damage they
have caused.
- - - - - -
"What we've proved is greed unleashed has no boundaries at all," Sachs
said. "That is the modern economy: Unleash the greed."
The patriarch, who sat in the front row for the entirety of the
conference, opened and closed the proceedings. Speaking in English, he
framed conservation as a cause inextricably linked to both his faith and
the broader cause of social justice.
"Any kind of alienation between human beings and nature is a distortion
of Christian theology and anthropology," he said.
Even small details of Bartholomew's itinerary carried symbolic
significance. His top environmental adviser, the Rev. John Chryssavgis,
asked the conference hotels to avoid plastic straws and nixed a planned
blessing for Hydra's fishing fleet that was sponsored by an oil company...
Magda Jean-Louis contributed to this report.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/climate-change-is-a-top-spiritual-priority-for-these-religious-leaders/2018/06/26/d5e06fd2-749e-11e8-9780-b1dd6a09b549_story.html?utm_term=.852f7ad9fd0b
*This Day in Climate History - June 27, 2006 - from D.R. Tucker*
*June 27, 2006: On MSNBC's "Countdown," Keith Olbermann interviews
Elizabeth Kolbert of the New Yorker on the Supreme Court's decision to
hear the Massachusetts v. EPA case. *
*OLBERMANN: Apart from the end there, where we‘re flash back to the
Lyndon Johnson “Daisy Ad” and we‘re expecting this little girl to
start counting backwards from 10, is that the thrust of the
arrangement being made against doing anything about CO2, that if we
do there‘ll be no more electricity and we‘ll have to live in caves
at the outskirts of town and pound ground with rocks for energy or
something? *
**
*KOLBERT: Yeah, exactly. George Bush has said, you know, that if we
regulate CO2 it would ruin our economy and that‘s an argument that
you hear all the time. Unfortunately, it is probably just not true
and in the meantime we‘re just wasting a lot of time, because I
think everyone acknowledges eventually we are going to have to do
that. *
**
*OLBERMANN: Give me the political playing field on this. We know,
obviously, where Mr. Gore stands. Who are the other, if any,
political figures who are picking up the global warming cajole (ph). *
**
*KOLBERT: Well, John McCain has been very outspoken. He has a bill,
the McCain-Lieberman Bill, that‘s been brought up twice, but
unfortunately both times it‘s been defeated, that would regulate CO2
emissions.*
**
*OLBERMANN: Is there anybody else or does it boil down to him and
Gore? *
**
*KOLBERT: Well, there are—when McCain has brought his bill up, he‘s
gotten a lot of democratic votes, he hasn‘t gotten a lot of
republican votes. He‘s gotten Hillary Clinton‘s vote, for example.
Hillary Clinton has been very outspoken. I know she and John McCain
have actually taken trips together to the Arctic, to view where you
can see the affects of climate change very, very dramatically up in
places like Alaska and northern Canada. *
**
*OLBERMANN: Is there any hope to be drawn out of the news that the
Supreme Court‘s going to hear arguments on the Bush administration
and the need to regulate carbon emissions. Can you describe what
this case is and what implications might be of it? *
**
*KOLBERT: Sure, 12 states, including New York, where I‘m sitting
now, and Massachusetts, where I live, have brought to the Supreme
Court a case that demands, basically that the EPA regulates CO2
under the Clean Air Act, classify it as a pollutant, a harmful
pollutant, and therefore they‘d have to regulate it. And then
whether or not there‘s any chance that this could succeed is a
really good question. I don‘t think that anyone who watches the
court carefully could say there‘s a terribly good chance, but on the
other hand, you have to hope that the court took it—it was a divided
lower court decision, and you have to hope the court took it in good
faith and is really going to listen to the arguments on both sides. *
**
*OLBERMANN: Elizabeth Kolbert of the “New Yorker” magazine, and
author of “Field Notes from a Catastrophe.” Great thanks for your
time. *
**
*http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9354636/ns/msnbc-countdown_with_keith_olbermann/t/countdown-keith-olbermann-june/*
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