[TheClimate.Vote] June 28, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/June 28, 2018/

[wildfires]
*Nearly 3,000 firefighters deployed as wildfire rages in Northern 
California 
<https://abcnews.go.com/US/3000-firefighters-deployed-wildfire-rages-northern-california/story?id=56194172>*
A raging wildfire in Northern California has grown by about 3,000 acres 
on as firefighters fought to contain the blaze, which has already 
destroyed at least 22 homes and buildings, authorities said.
The Pawnee fire has burned at least 13,000 acres in Lake County, 
California, north of San Francisco, as high temperatures and windy 
conditions fanned the flames, fire officials said.
About 2,700 fire fighters have been deployed to the area, but the brutal 
weather conditions have made the fight difficult...
https://abcnews.go.com/US/3000-firefighters-deployed-wildfire-rages-northern-california/story?id=56194172


[bad year for Copper River Salmon]
*The 'blob' likely to blame for poor salmon returns in Gulf of Alaska 
<https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2018/06/27/the-blob-likely-to-blame-for-poor-salmon-returns-in-gulf-of-alaska/>*
By Jason Smith June 27, 2018
The mass of unusually warm water that persisted in the gulf of the US 
state beginning in 2014 not fully dissipating until last year, is the 
likely cause behind the reduced returns, biologists told Undercurrent News.
"What we're seeing now, the sockeye and the Chinook that are returning 
now, those juveniles entered the water in 2015, 2016. I think we're 
seeing the effects of very poor survival when they hit the ocean during 
those warm periods," Andrew Gray, a fisheries biologist with the 
National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Alaska Fisheries 
Science Center, said.
- - - -
Although fishing has only been underway for a couple of weeks in the 
gulf, ADF&G has been concerned enough to take emergency management 
action. For example, the Chignik River district remains closed to 
commercial fishing and the agency temporarily closed fisheries nearby 
when DNA tests showed that Chignik-bound fish were present. Returns were 
devastatingly low for Copper River and things aren't looking good for 
several other salmon fisheries either.
Bowers said the blob makes sense as an explanation, partly because other 
factors don't.
"We don't think that a decline as widespread as this would have been 
caused by freshwater habitat issues because those concerns wouldn't 
affect each stock in the same way," he said.
First seen in 2014, the blob effect raised ocean temperatures by as much 
as three degrees C (about 5.4 degrees F) higher than average for months, 
NOAA has said...
https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2018/06/27/the-blob-likely-to-blame-for-poor-salmon-returns-in-gulf-of-alaska/ 



[says TIme magazine]
*Justice Kennedy's Replacement Could Make It Harder to Fight Climate 
Change 
<http://time.com/5324154/anthony-kennedy-supreme-court-climate-change/>*
By JUSTIN WORLAND - June 27, 2018
The retirement of Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy could allow the 
nation's highest court to change its mind on whether the Environmental 
Protection Agency has to fight climate change.
As a crucial swing vote, the Reagan appointee joined liberals in a 
landmark 5-4 decision in 2007 that the EPA is required to address 
climate change if its own scientists found that it posed a risk to 
public health. Two years later the agency made exactly that 
determination, issuing a scientific document known as the endangerment 
finding.
"We're not going to get another Kennedy who's going to play that 
moderating role," says Deborah Sivas, a professor of environmental law 
at Stanford University. "Since it's a matter of statutory interpretation 
instead of bedrock constitutional principles I could see folks try to 
set up a new challenge."...
http://time.com/5324154/anthony-kennedy-supreme-court-climate-change/


[pretty obvious]
*Climate change a 'man-made problem with a feminist solution' says 
Robinson 
<https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-climatechange-women/climate-change-a-man-made-problem-with-a-feminist-solution-says-robinson-idUSKBN1JE2IN>*
Zoe Tabary
LONDON (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Women must be at the heart of 
climate action if the world is to limit the deadly impact of disasters 
such as floods, former Irish president and U.N. rights commissioner Mary 
Robinson said on Monday.
Robinson, also a former U.N. climate envoy, said women were most 
adversely affected by disasters and yet are rarely "put front and 
center" of efforts to protect the most vulnerable.
"Climate change is a man-made problem and must have a feminist 
solution," she said at a meeting of climate experts at London's Marshall 
Institute for Philanthropy and Entrepreneurship.
"Feminism doesn't mean excluding men, it's about being more inclusive of 
women and -in this case - acknowledging the role they can play in 
tackling climate change."
Research has shown that women's vulnerabilities are exposed during the 
chaos of cyclones, earthquakes and floods, according to the British 
think-tank Overseas Development Institute.
In many developing countries, for example, women are involved in food 
production, but are not allowed to manage the cash earned by selling 
their crops, said Robinson.
The lack of access to financial resources can hamper their ability to 
cope with extreme weather, she told the Thomson Reuters Foundation on 
the sidelines of the event.
"Women all over the world are ... on the frontlines of the fall-out from 
climate change and therefore on the forefront of climate action," said 
Natalie Samarasinghe, executive director of Britain's United Nations 
Association.
"What we - the international community - need to do is talk to them, 
learn from them and support them in scaling up what they know works best 
in their communities," she said at the meeting.
Robinson served as Irish president from 1990-1997 before taking over as 
the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, and now leads a foundation 
devoted to climate justice.
Reporting by Zoe Tabary @zoetabary, Editing by Claire Cozens. Please 
credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson 
Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women's rights, trafficking, 
property rights, climate change and resilience.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-climatechange-women/climate-change-a-man-made-problem-with-a-feminist-solution-says-robinson-idUSKBN1JE2IN


[it is all connected - of course]
*Did climate change spark the border crisis? 
<https://thebulletin.org/did-climate-change-spark-border-crisis11935>*
By Dawn Stover
27 JUNE 2018
The majority of immigrants crossing the southwestern US border in recent 
months have come from the Northern Triangle of Central America: El 
Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. In the popular narrative, they are 
fleeinggang violence 
<https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/central-americas-violent-northern-triangle>, 
drug wars, and a lack of economic opportunities. An alternative 
narrative, however,suggests 
<https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/04/violence-drought-migration-central-americas-northern-triangle/> that 
another factor sparked the border crisis: protracted drought.
Applications for asylum in the United States havesurged 
<http://www.unhcr.org/en-us/statistics/unhcrstats/5b27be547/unhcr-global-trends-2017.html>in 
the past four years, with more than a third of all applicants coming 
from the Northern Triangle. The increased migration coincides with an 
agricultural crisis there that began in 2014 and depleted food stocks. 
In a June 2016situation report 
<http://www.fao.org/emergencies/resources/documents/resources-detail/en/c/422097/>, 
the UN Food and Agricultural Organization warned that the Northern 
Triangle was experiencing repeated crop losses caused by severe drought 
- the result of a strong El Niño weather pattern. After a strong El 
Niño, the weather pendulum can swing in the opposite direction the 
following year, with heavier-than-normal rainfall that can also cause 
crop losses.
Some climate modelspredict 
<https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2100>that global warming, which 
increases sea surface temperatures, will make extreme El Niño events 
more frequent. But despite considerable progress in understanding the 
connection between global warming and El Niño, it isnot yet possible to 
say with certainty 
<https://e360.yale.edu/features/el_nino_and_climate_change_wild_weather_may_get_wilder>that 
global warming made the Northern Triangle drought worse.
There is little doubt that the Northern Triangle countries are among 
themost dangerous 
<http://www.thisisinsider.com/dangerous-countries-2017-5#2-yemen-19>in 
the world, but violence doesn't tell the whole story of the border 
crisis. About 80 percent of the people fleeing Guatemala arecoming from 
areas 
<https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2018/04/violence-drought-migration-central-americas-northern-triangle/>where 
the homicide rate is comparable to the United States but food is scarce.
A 2017report 
<https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000022124/download/?_ga=2.186416544.849116656.1503506467-813076901.1503506467>by 
a coalition of international aid organizations confirmed that hunger is 
linked to multiple factors driving migration - including poverty, 
violence, and climate variability. Even if the current border crisis 
can't be pinned primarily on climate conditions, future warming is 
likely to have a growing impact on human migration.
https://thebulletin.org/did-climate-change-spark-border-crisis11935


[Arctic changes]
OCEANS 25 June 2018  16:00
*'Atlantification' of Arctic sea tipping it towards new climate regime 
<https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime>*
Rising temperatures and declining sea ice are driving a "rapid climate 
shift" in the Arctic's Barents Sea, a new study says.
The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming 
conditions and decreasing sea ice volume "may soon" see the Barents Sea 
complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty 
Atlantic regime.
If current trends continue, the transition could occur "around 2040", 
the lead author tells Carbon Brief. This would have "unknown 
consequences" for the wider ecosystem and commercial fishing, the study 
warns.
*'Atlantification'*
The Barents Sea is "at the doorstep to the Arctic Ocean", the new paper 
says, roughly hemmed in by Russia and Scandinavia to the south, the 
island of Svalbard to the northwest and Russia's Novaya Zemlya 
archipelago to the east.
It is broadly divided into two regions. The waters of the northern 
Barents are cold, fresh and often covered in sea ice, while the south is 
supplied with warm and salty water from the Atlantic Ocean, which 
prevents ice from forming on the surface.
The graphic below illustrates this in more detail. On the left-hand 
side, the Atlantic domain - the southern Barents Sea and beyond - is 
relatively warm and well-mixed. On the right-hand side is the interior 
Arctic, where a large body of cold, ice-covered Arctic water sits on a 
deeper Atlantic layer. The Arctic domain is highly "stratified", which 
means the different layers of water stay largely separate.
The central section shows the "frontier" region of the northern Barents 
Sea. This has a shallower Arctic water layer that is usually only 
covered in sea ice through the winter.
Illustration of the frontier region between Atlantic (left) and Arctic 
(right) ocean climate domains. The Atlantic domain has warm and saline 
Atlantic Water (red) occupying the entire water column, and has large 
heat losses to the atmosphere (in winter). The Arctic domain is cold, 
stratified and sea-ice covered, having an intermediate Arctic layer of 
cold and fresh Arctic Water (blue) over a deep Atlantic layer. In the 
Arctic domain, upward fluxes of heat and salt from the deep Atlantic 
layer are largest in the frontier region, where the stratification is 
weaker. Source: Lind et al. (2018)
But, in recent years, scientists have documented the "Atlantification" 
of the Barents sea as an increased inflow of Atlantic water has enlarged 
the area where sea ice cannot form. This has resulted in decline in ice 
extent on the Barents Sea, particularly in eastern areas.
Using decades of data collected from ships and satellites, the new study 
investigates the causes behind these changes, finding that they are, 
ultimately, caused by rising temperatures in the Arctic and the 
associated decrease in sea ice.
*Sea change*
Sea ice plays a key role in keeping the northern Barents Sea in its 
Arctic climate regime. In addition to the sea ice that forms on its 
surface, the region receives an "import" of sea ice each year, blown in 
from the central Arctic by the wind.
When the imported sea ice melts in spring and summer, it provides an 
influx of freshwater to the Barents Sea. This cold, fresh water top-ups 
the Arctic layer of the northern region, helping to maintain the 
stratification that works as a barrier to the warm Atlantic waters below.
But the amount of ice the Barents Sea receives each year is declining. 
The average annual area of ice import during 2000-15 was around 40% 
smaller, on average, than during 1979-2009, the study finds. The 
decrease in volume of sea ice imported "was even larger", the study 
says, at approximately 60%.
This is in line with the observed decline in Arctic sea ice cover more 
widely in response to rising temperatures, the paper says, which reduces 
"the probability of large sea ice inflows to the Barents Sea, in both 
volume and area".
Less sea ice means less freshwater being imported into the northern 
Barents Sea. The chart below shows how sea ice import (blue line) has 
changed since 1970, as well as the freshwater content (black) of the 
northern Barents Sea and the salinity of its surface waters (red). All 
three metrics have shown a steep decline in recent years.
Chart showing estimated sea ice volume import to the Barents Sea during 
October-May (blue line), surface layer salinity (red) and freshwater 
content (black). Actual values are shown on the left axis, standardized 
anomalies relative to the 1979-2015 average on the right axis. Source: 
Lind et al. (2018)
This decline in freshwater content weakens the stratification that 
separates the overlying cold, fresh Arctic water from the underlying 
warm and more dense Atlantic water. As the two layers mix, it brings the 
warm, salty water up from the deep, making it more difficult for sea ice 
to form the following winter.
This process also helps explain the warming "hotspot" in the northern 
Barents Sea, says lead author Dr Sigrid Lind, a researcher in physical 
oceanography and climate science at the Institute of Marine Science and 
the University of Bergen in Norway. She tells Carbon Brief:
"A likely cause for the Arctic warming hotspot is, therefore, that less 
sea ice inflows have caused major freshwater loss and weakened 
stratification, bringing heat and salt up from the deep Atlantic layer, 
making the Arctic layer warmer, reducing the winter sea ice cover and 
increasing winter surface air temperature."
All three layers of the Barents Sea are now significantly warmer than 
they were in the 1970-99 baseline period, the study finds.
The top 60 metres of the Barents Sea is 1.5C warmer in the 21st century 
than during 1970-99, the paper says, while below 60 metres has warmed by 
0.5-0.8C. The salinity in all three layers has also increased during the 
2000s.
*'First to lose the battle'*
The results suggest that supplies of sea ice from the Arctic are 
necessary to keep the northern Barents Sea "cold, stratified and sea-ice 
covered", the paper says.
The findings also point towards a "fundamental shift in the physical 
environment", the paper says, where the northern Barents Sea could be 
"the first [frontier region] to lose the battle against Atlantic water".
Model simulations suggest that the transition from Arctic-type to 
Atlantic-type waters in the northern Barents Sea could happen by the end 
of the century. But it is "likely to happen much faster", Lind says:
"If the decline in freshwater content in the upper 100 metres during 
2000-16 continues, the freshwater content will be zero - meaning no 
stratification - around 2040."
The exact timing will depend strongly on the speed of Arctic sea ice 
decline and the highly-variable inflow of sea ice to the Barents Sea, 
says Lind. This could either speed up or slow down the transition.
Such a rapid change would be a "historically rare" moment, the paper 
says, which has previously only been documented in palaeoclimate studies 
of the Earth's long history.
*Into the unknown*
A transition to an Atlantic regime in the northern Barents Sea would 
have "unknown consequences" for the wider ecosystem, the paper warns.
On the one hand, commercial fish stocks may expand north into new areas 
- and research shows that Atlantic fish species are already entering the 
northern Barents Sea during summer.
However, it is not known how the loss of an Arctic ecosystem will affect 
Atlantic species. For example, "the capelin - a key prey for several 
commercial fish species - feed on species that are linked to the sea ice 
edge," notes Lind.
In addition, the situation for the creatures that currently enjoy the 
Arctic conditions of the Barents Sea could "become critical", says Lind:
"The Arctic ecosystem in the northern Barents Sea have species that are 
adapted to the cold, stratified and sea-ice covered Arctic climate, 
including ice-associated marine mammals."
Prof Igor Polyakov of the International Arctic Research Center, who was 
not involved in the research, agrees that the impacts could be 
considerable. He tells Carbon Brief:
"The discussion presented in the manuscript rightly states that this 
region may soon be transferred from an Arctic to an Atlantic type of 
climate. Consequences of these changes may be widespread and dramatic."
And, despite the uncertainties around the timing of the outcome, the 
study has a "solid base", thanks to the set of "excellent" temperature 
and salinity observations and satellite data for the Barents Sea, adds 
Polyakov.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime


[except that water consumption is a part of water withdrawal]
*Wow, Americans Are Actually Getting Better at Conserving Something 
<https://earther.com/wow-americans-are-actually-getting-better-at-conservin-1827142640>*
Maddie Stone
It's not every day we hear Americans are doing an okay job on the 
conservation front, but that appears to be the case when it comes to 
water usage. A new U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report finds U.S. water 
consumption is at its lowest level in more than 45 years.
Americans withdrew 322 billion gallons of water a day in 2015, down from 
354 billion gallons per day in 2010. It's the continuation of a "sharp 
but steady" downward trend that's been evident since 2005 according to 
USGS, which tracks American water usage every five years. That's welcome 
news considering the water woes many Americans out West have faced due 
to persistent drought - a problem climate change will only exacerbate.
The dip in water use from 2010 to 2015 was driven by a nearly 20 percent 
drop in consumption by power plants, which account for about 40 percent 
of all American water usage. That can be attributed to the use of newer, 
more efficient water-based cooling systems, an increase in the use of 
dry cooling towers, and the shuttering of aging coal plants with 
inefficient water usage, per the report.
But individual consumers also played a role. Public supply water 
withdrawals - for residences, public pools, parks, commercial spaces and 
more - account for 12 percent of American water usage. This consumption 
was down in 2015, too, with the average per-capita water use dropping 
from 88 to 82 gallons per day.
Hearteningly, the public supply trend was driven largely by declines in 
water use in California and Texas, two states with high water 
consumption that have been hit by serious drought in recent years. In 
California, Governor Jerry Brown imposed mandatory water restrictions in 
2015, while in Texas, the voluntary efforts of utility companies to 
conserve water seem to be paying off. The report notes that San 
Antonio's water system reduced its per capita usage 42 percent "simply 
by focusing on education, outreach, and regulations."
More broadly, a smorgasbord of policies have helped Americans save water 
across the country, including the National Energy Policy Act of 1992, 
which established efficiency standards for toilets, faucets, shower 
heads and more, and EPA WaterSense, a program that certifies consumer 
products as water efficient.
There's no such thing as a simple success story, though. As Kathie 
Dello, Associate Director of the Oregon Climate Change Research 
Institute pointed out to Earther, the decline in water usage has 
actually been a challenge for some utilities, which have had to raise 
their rates in order to keep revenues up.
Then there's climate change. As the EPA's now-defunct (RIP) page on 
water and climate states, "climate change is likely to increase water 
demand while shrinking water supplies." We'll see this in South Florida, 
where rising sea levels are causing surface aquifers to become tainted 
with salt, a problem that's only going to get worse. Meanwhile in the 
South and West, already drought-prone areas are likely to become hotter 
and drier while reservoir-replenishing snowpack diminishes.
"The delicate conversation between conservation and consumption isn't 
going away, especially with declining western snowpack and limited 
storage," Dello said.
It's a good thing that industries and individuals are taking steps to 
reduce their water usage. But it's going to take a lot more than 
ditching paper butt wipes for bidets for humans to adapt to a thirstier 
future...
https://earther.com/wow-americans-are-actually-getting-better-at-conservin-1827142640
https://earther.com/


EXPERT BLOG › CLARE MORGANELLI
*Antibiotic Resistance & Climate Change: A Dangerous Duo 
<https://www.nrdc.org/experts/clare-morganelli/antibiotic-resistance-climate-change-dangerous-duo>*
June 26, 2018 Clare Morganelli
It's no secret that climate change already poses a plethora of threats 
to the health and wellbeing of Americans, from increasing heat-related 
illness and death, to worsening extreme weather events like hurricanes 
and flooding, to expanding the previous range of mosquitoes and ticks 
that carry Lyme Disease, West Nile or Zika virus, and other diseases. A 
new study published in Nature Climate Change adds to the list: warming 
global temperatures caused by carbon pollution could be playing a role 
in the increasing rate of antibiotic resistance.
Antibiotic resistance is a growing public health crisis in the United 
States, but this problem has largely been attributed to the 
over-prescription and use of antibiotic drugs. Routine doses of 
antibiotics in feed are standard practice in the livestock industry, and 
up to half of all antibiotics prescribed to people are not needed or are 
not optimally effective as prescribed. It's not surprising that 
outbreaks of antibiotic-resistant infections typically emerge from 
factory farms, where healthy animals are routinely fed antibiotics to 
compensate for dangerous conditions, or from healthcare facilities, 
where antibiotic-resistant bacteria are a major risk. The Centers for 
Disease Control and Prevention estimate that in the United States, over 
two million people fall sick each year due to antibiotic-resistant 
infections, resulting in at least 23,000 deaths.
- - - - -
*Could climate change be promoting the evolution of these hard-to-treat 
bacteria?*
It's long-established that warmer temperatures promote bacterial growth. 
A number of bacteria, like Staphylococcus aureus, thrive in temperatures 
between 40 and 140 degrees Fahrenheit - a range often referred to as the 
"danger zone". As temperatures around the world continue to rise, 
bacteria are expected to reproduce at a faster rate, increasing the 
opportunity for mutation and transmission. This new research estimates 
that a 10-degree Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) increase in average 
minimum temperatures across the U.S. could result in a 2.2 percent 
increase in Staphylococcus aureus antibiotic resistance. In 2017, the 
U.S. experienced an average annual temperature 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit 
above the 20th century average. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus 
aureus, or MRSA, already causes 80,000 infections and 11,000 deaths 
annually in the U.S. alone, so the underlying risk of these bacteria to 
Americans is already substantial.
The World Health Organization describes antibiotic resistance as "one of 
the biggest threats to global health, food security, and development 
today." A growing number of infections are becoming increasingly 
difficult to treat with remaining antibiotics; some are already 
resistant to all of them. While a number of precautions can help reduce 
this alarming trend, such as limiting misuse of antibiotics in 
livestock, this study illuminates just one more reason why action on 
climate change is needed to safeguard our health.
https://www.nrdc.org/experts/clare-morganelli/antibiotic-resistance-climate-change-dangerous-duo


[video lecture. Cornell]
*Climate Jihad in Africa: Sea Level Rise, Forced Migration, and Related 
Turmoil Across the Continent <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVfpHXXnjXs>*
Published on Feb 22, 2018
Cornell University - 2018 Climate Change Seminar by Prof. Charles Geisler
http://www.atkinson.cornell.edu/events/ClimateChangeSem.php
Recorded at Cornell University - February 12, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVfpHXXnjXs


[Learning about ice]
*Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE 
<https://youtu.be/lRK5roxWRc4>*
Climate State
Published on Nov 23, 2017
Rapid collapse of Antarctic glaciers could flood coastal cities by the 
end of this century. Based on an article written by Eric Holthaus. Read 
the full story https://grist.org/article/antarctica-...
https://youtu.be/lRK5roxWRc4


*This Day in Climate History - June 28, 2006 
<http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/07/who_killed_the_.html>- 
from D.R. Tucker*
June 28, 2006: The documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?" is 
released in the United States. (Executive producer Dean Devlin and 
electric-car advocate Chelsea Sexton would appear on the July 7, 2006 
edition of "EcoTalk with Betsy Rosenberg" on Air America to discuss the 
film.)

    It was among the fastest, most efficient production car ever built.
    It ran on electricity, produced no emissions and catapulted American
    technology to the forefront of the automotive industry. The lucky
    few who drove it never wanted to give it up. So why did General
    Motors crush its fleet of EV-1 electric vehicles in the Arizona desert?

http://youtu.be/k96tIRjxzw0
http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/07/who_killed_the_.html 


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