[TheClimate.Vote] June 30, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Jun 30 10:25:45 EDT 2018
/June 30, 2018/
[Wildfire Today]
*Satellite imagery of Colorado fires <http://wildfiretoday.com/>*
The Spring Creek Fire was mostly obscured by clouds, but the heat sensor
was able to get a peek at it when a hole in the clouds passed over. The
data in the map below was from 4:36 a.m. MDT June 29.
http://wildfiretoday.com/
- - - --
[heat and dry]
*Wildfires force evacuations in heat-stricken Colorado*
<https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/wildfires-force-evacuations-heat-stricken-colorado-56251977>
By The Associated Press
DENVER (AP) - Bone-dry conditions and scorching temperatures hampered
firefighters Thursday as they battled two wildfires in Colorado - one
that has burned structures in the southern part of the state and another
that has forced evacuations near Rocky Mountain National Park.
About 350 homes have been evacuated east of Fort Garland in southern
Colorado since a wildfire erupted there Wednesday. The blaze has
blackened about 6 square miles (15 square kilometers) and has destroyed
some structures, but fire managers are not sure how many.
"It's like a fog of smoke right there by our house," resident James
Matthews told KKTV. "If the fire does get there, it's going to be very
bad because there's propane tanks everywhere."...
Hot, dry and windy weather has raised the fire danger in Colorado as
well as in Utah and parts of Arizona and Nevada. Temperatures reached
the upper 90s and triple digits across much of Colorado on Thursday.
video
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/06/28/wildfires-force-evacuations-in-heat-stricken-colorado.html
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/wildfires-force-evacuations-heat-stricken-colorado-56251977
- - - -
[Birds of prey utilize fire]
Intentional Fire-Spreading by Raptors in Australia [research study]
<https://phys.org/news/2018-02-firehawks-intentionally-aid-food.html>
Some birds intentionally spread fire from place to place, sometimes in
cooperation with other birds, says this new study.
"Intentional Fire-Spreading by 'Firehawk' Raptors in Northern
Australia," Mark Bonta, Robert Gosford, Dick Eussen, Nathan Ferguson,
Erana Loveless, and Maxwell Witwer, Journal of Ethnobiology, vol. 37,
no. 4, 2017, pp. 700-718. The authors write:
"We document Indigenous Ecological Knowledge and non-Indigenous
observations of intentional fire-spreading by the fire-foraging raptors
Black Kite (Milvus migrans), Whistling Kite (Haliastur sphenurus), and
Brown Falcon (Falco berigora) in tropical Australian savannas. Observers
report both solo and cooperative attempts, often successful, to spread
wildfires intentionally via single-occasion or repeated transport of
burning sticks in talons or beaks."
https://www.improbable.com/2018/01/09/intentional-fire-spreading-by-raptors-in-australia-research-study/
https://phys.org/news/2018-02-firehawks-intentionally-aid-food.html
[Voice of America News]
*Climate 'Refugees,' Sidelined From Global Deal, Ask: 'Where Is the
Justice?'
<https://www.voanews.com/a/climate-refugees-sidelined-from-global-deal-ask-where-is-justice/4152935.html>*
SUVA, FIJI -
Vulnerable communities uprooted by climate change are being left out of
a voluntary pact to deal with migration, campaigners said, after the
United States pulled out of the global deal.
Although people within low-lying states are being forced to relocate
because of worsening storms and rising seas, they will not be recognized
in U.N. migration pact talks next year, putting lives at risk,
campaigners said.
"Many of the situations we find ourselves in, here in the Pacific, are
not caused by us. We continue to ask, 'Where is the justice?' Those of
us who are least responsible, continue to bear the brunt," said Emele
Duituturaga, head of the Pacific Islands Association of Non-Governmental
Organizations (PIANGO).
Hoping for acceptance
"We hope that there will be an openness and an acceptance that
climate-induced migration is one that the world community has to be
responsible for," she said on the sidelines of a conference co-hosted by
PIANGO in Fiji's capital, Suva.
With a record 21.3 million refugees globally, the 193-member U.N.
General Assembly adopted a political declaration in September 2016 in
which it also agreed to spend two years negotiating a pact on safe,
orderly and regular migration.
U.S. President Donald Trump this week withdrew from negotiations because
the global approach to the issue was "simply not compatible with U.S.
sovereignty."
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres regretted the U.S. decision, his
spokesman said, but expressed hope the United States might re-engage in
the talks ahead of the start of formal negotiations in February.
Unique heritage
Climate displacement is already a reality for Telstar Jimmy, a student
from the Bank Islands in northern Vanuatu.
Her family has relocated several times because of worsening cyclones and
flooding, as rising seas slowly wash away ancestral homelands and burial
sites.
"The foundations of our unique heritage were taken," she told the
Thomson Reuters Foundation.
"Relocation just meant safety and continuing to exist. But now the
question is: Safe and existing for how much longer?"
Worldwide, sea levels have risen 26 centimeters (10 inches) since the
late 19th century, driven up by melting ice and a natural expansion of
water in the oceans as they warm, U.N. data show. Seas could rise by up
to a meter by 2100.
'It's only going to get worse'
"With climate-induced displacement, we know that there are already
people, communities and countries at risk," said Danny Sriskandarajah,
head of the rights group CIVICUS, co-hosting the Fiji conference. "It's
only going to get worse [and] we need to come up with ways to manage
those flows."
PIANGO and CIVICUS are among campaign groups drafting a declaration that
calls on the United Nations to recognize climate change as a key driver
of migration.
The 1951 Refugee Convention recognizes that people fleeing persecution,
war and conflict have the right to protection, but not those forced out
by climate change.
Trump also plans to pull out of the 2015 Paris climate accord, which
seeks to end the fossil fuel era this century with a radical shift to
cleaner energies to curb heat waves, downpours, floods and rising sea
levels.
The deal aims to hold the global temperature rise to "well below" 2
degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and try to limit the rise
even further, to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The U.S. is the only country that is not part of the climate pact after
Syria and Nicaragua joined this year.
"I'm a bit nervous because other countries may also pull out with the
U.S., and that's going to be a bigger issue for us, especially at a time
when we're trying to battle climate change," said Vanuatu local Jimmy.
"Whatever each country does will impact the lives of other people around
the whole globe."
https://www.voanews.com/a/climate-refugees-sidelined-from-global-deal-ask-where-is-justice/4152935.html
- - - -
[Where?]
*There Will Soon Be Floods Of Climate Refugees: Will They Get Asylum?
<https://www.fastcompany.com/40491897/there-will-soon-be-floods-of-climate-refugees-will-they-get-asylum>*
New Zealand is considering creating a new visa for people fleeing
environmental disasters brought on by climate change.
There are challenges, at least with the policies that have existed to
date in places like Brazil. "These categories are not really designed
for the long haul, and for durable, lasting solutions," he says. "That
is particularly relevant if you think of some of the more negative
effects in developing states. Let's say it won't be possible to return,
and people will need to permanently leave some of these areas - then
these tools may come up short in terms of the need for permanent
solutions." But if multiple countries create new pathways for migration,
and begin to coordinate regionally, Solberg says that he thinks "it
would go a long way" to help both in short-term crises and in the longer
term.
In New Zealand, Maidaborn argues that the country could benefit from
letting more people migrate. "I don't want to fall into the trap of
thinking that people from Pacific nations who are really threatened by
climate change are victims," she says. "A lot of world leadership has
gone on from the Pacific around climate action . . . I think there's lot
of expertise, a lot of thinking and development and action, that's gone
on in the Pacific because it's had to have gone on, and all that
learning can be very applicable here."
She believes that more countries will follow New Zealand's example. "I
think as a world, we're going to see in much more material terms that
our earth is a closed system . . . We sort of pretended that they're all
separate systems, and we're coming very much face-to-face with the idea
that it's all connected. The solution will resolve us to act in an
interconnected way."
https://www.fastcompany.com/40491897/there-will-soon-be-floods-of-climate-refugees-will-they-get-asylum
[Draft, final to be released soon]
*Warming of 2C 'substantially' more harmful than 1.5C - draft UN
report
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/27/warming-2c-substantially-harmful-1-5c-draft-un-report/>*
Published on 27/06/2018, 11:07am
Latest version of major UN science report concludes the upper
temperature goal of the Paris Agreement does not represent a climate
safe zone
By Karl Mathiesen, Megan Darby and Soila Apparicio
A leaked draft of a major UN climate change report shows growing
certainty that 2C, once shorthand for a 'safe' amount of planetary
warming, would be a dangerous step for humanity.
The authors make clear the difference between warming of 1.5C and 2C
would be "substantial" and damaging to communities, economies and
ecosystems across the world.
In 2015, the Paris Agreement established twin goals to hold temperature
rise from pre-industrial times "well below 2C" and strive for 1.5C.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has since been
working to assess the difference between those targets, with a view to
publishing a sweeping analysis of all available research in October this
year.
The report summary, which Climate Home News published on Wednesday, is a
draft and subject to change. The IPCC said it would not comment on
leaked reports. An earlier draft from January was also published by CHN.
CHN has compared the January and June drafts. The new version builds a
stronger case for governments to rapidly cut carbon pollution. It also
strikes a marginally more optimistic tone on the attainability of the
1.5C target.
In January, authors said every 0.5C added to today's level of 1C of
warming would "increase" the risks of various impacts. That wording has
been beefed up throughout the new summary, which now predicts
"substantial increases" in those risks...
- - - - -
The summary elaborates on what a "rapid and far-reaching" transition
looks like for different sectors.
Renewables deployment needs to accelerate further for 1.5C to be
possible, the draft says, with primary energy from coal falling two
thirds by 2030. For comparison, the International Energy Agency
forecasts coal use increasing slightly over the period, based on
existing and signposted policies.
It calls for sustainable management of competing demands on the land.
This includes "diet changes" - code for the rich eating less steak -
and "sustainable intensification" of farming, which is viewed with
suspicion by many environmentalists.
Radical emissions cuts are also needed in industry, transport and
buildings, where it says technology exists but faces economic and social
barriers.
The final section deals with sustainable development and how efforts to
meet the 1.5C limit interact with goals like eradicating poverty.
In the first summary, the authors warned there was a "high chance" the
1.5C target "might not be feasible" because efforts to remove carbon
from the atmosphere, through tree-planting or use of carbon capture with
biofuels, can conflict with other development priorities and take up
land used for food production.
This language has been toned down, instead concluding the feasibility of
such methods "depends on scale, [and the] implications for land, water
and energy use".
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/27/warming-2c-substantially-harmful-1-5c-draft-un-report/
[Press release for new book]
Dear Colleagues,
I would like to announce the publication of my new book, /The
International Law on Climate Change/
<http://www.cambridge.org/mayer> (Cambridge University Press). This book
aims to provide a concise, thought-provoking and accessible overview of
what international law has to say about climate change. Copies for
evaluation or review can be requested following the link above.
An accompanying website, http://www.internationalclimatelaw.com/
<http://www.internationalclimatelaw.com/> presents various up-to-date
materials for teaching and research.
Best regards,
Benoit Mayer
Assistant Professor, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
/Global climate change is a topic of continuously growing interest.
As more international treaties come into force, media coverage has
increased and many universities are now starting to conduct courses
specifically on climate change laws and policies. This textbook
provides a survey of the international law on climate change,
explaining how significant international agreements have sought to
promote compliance with general norms of international law. Benoit
Mayer provides an account of the rules agreed upon through lengthy
negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and multiple other forums on mitigation,
geoengineering, adaptation, loss and damage and international
support. The International Law on Climate Change is suitable for
undergraduate and graduate students studying climate, environmental
or international law. It is supported by a suite of online resources
featuring regularly updated lists of complementary materials and
weblinks, and annually updated briefs for specific chapters./
* An interdisciplinary treatment of climate change, clarifying its
scientific, economic and political underpinnings
* A clear and accessible writing style outlines simple step-by-step
developments enabling students to understand the complexity of a
quarter-century of extremely intense negotiations
* Differing and opposing views are discussed and evaluated,
encouraging students to critically engage with the topics and
develop their skills in debating and argumentative essay writing
*Table of contents:*
1. Introduction
2. The rationale for international action on climate change
3. The UNFCCC regime, from Rio to Paris
4. Relevant developments in other regimes
5. Relevant norms of general international law
6. Differentiation
7. International action on climate change mitigation
8. Flexibility mechanisms
9. Geoengineering
10. International action on climate change adaptation
11. Loss and damage
12. International support
13. Ambition and compliance
14. Adjudication
15. Non-state actors
16. International law in times of climate change.
'Comprehensive and thought-provoking, written in multiple perspectives.
It is essential reading for academics and practitioners of international
law in tackling the challenges of climate change and protecting the
atmosphere in the twenty-first century.' *Shinya Murase*, Special
Rapporteur on the protection of the atmosphere, UN International Law
Commission
'International climate change law has gradually come to reflect the
complexity of the problem it seeks to address. Uncovering the why, how,
where and what of international law on climate change, this book forms
essential reading for anyone looking for an incisive analysis of how to
tackle one of the defining challenges of our time.' *Harro van Asselt*,
University of Eastern Finland
'Offering an informed and engaged perspective on the international law
that governs humanity's crucial efforts to address global climate
change, this book is essential reading for policy-makers, practitioners
and scholars interested in securing a sustainable future for themselves
and for generations to come.' *Marie-Claire Cordonier Segger*,
University of Waterloo, Canada
[Harvard lecture on history of power markets]
*Naomi Oreskes on "Giant Power: Technology, Energy, and the Beginnings
of Post-Truth America" <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuEsVOIda9w>*
Harvard University - October 18, 2017 l
Published on Jun 4, 2018
The Environment Forum at the Mahindra Center is convened by Robin Kelsey
(Dean of Arts and Humanities, Harvard University) and Ian Jared Miller
(Professor of History, Harvard University)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuEsVOIda9w
[Fundamentals from the Guardian]
*30 years later, deniers are still lying about Hansen's amazing global
warming prediction
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jun/25/30-years-later-deniers-are-still-lying-about-hansens-amazing-global-warming-prediction>*
Koch paychecks seem to be strong motivators to lie
Thirty years ago, James Hansen testified to Congress
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/19/james-hansen-nasa-scientist-climate-change-warning>about
the dangers of human-caused climate change. Inhis testimony
<https://climatechange.procon.org/sourcefiles/1988_Hansen_Senate_Testimony.pdf>,
Hansen showed the results ofhis 1988 study
<https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=4107151872156248934&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5>using
a climate model to project future global warming under three possible
scenarios, ranging from 'business as usual' heavy pollution in his
Scenario A to 'draconian emissions cuts' in Scenario C, with a moderate
Scenario B in between.
Changes in the human effects that influence Earth's global energy
imbalance (a.k.a. 'anthropogenic radiative forcings') have in reality
been closest to Hansen's Scenario B, butabout 20 - 30% weaker
<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/06/30-years-after-hansens-testimony/>thanks
to the success of theMontreal Protocol
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol>in phasing out
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Hansen's climate model projected that under
Scenario B, global surface air temperatures would warm about 0.84C
between 1988 and 2017. But with a global energy imbalance 20 - 30%
lower, it would have predicted a global surface warming closer to 0.6 -
0.7C by this year.
The actual 1988 - 2017 temperature increase was about 0.6C. Hansen's
1988 global climate model was almost spot-on.
The incredible accuracy of Hansen's climate model predictions debunks a
number of climate denier myths. It shows thatclimate models are accurate
and reliable
<https://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models-intermediate.htm>,
thatglobal warming is proceeding as climate scientists predicted
<https://www.skepticalscience.com/comparing-global-temperature-predictions.html>,
and thus that we should probably start listening to them and take action
to address the existential threat it poses.
Hansen's predictions have thus become a target of climate denier
misinformation. It began way back in 1998, when the Cato
Institute'sPatrick Michaels
<https://skepticalscience.com/Patrick_Michaels_blog.htm>- who has
admitted that something like40% of his salary comes from the fossil fuel
industry
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jan/25/michaels-climate-sceptic-misled-congress>-
arguably committed perjury in testimony to Congress. Invited by
Republicans to testify as theKyoto Protocol
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol>climate agreement was in
the works, Michaels was asked to evaluate how Hansen's predictions were
faring 10 years later.
In his presentation,Michaels deleted Hansen's Scenarios B and C
<https://skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-serial-deleter-of-inconvenient-data.html>-
the ones closest to reality - and only showed Scenario A to make it
seem as though Hansen had drastically over-predicted global
warming.Deleting inconvenient data
<https://skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-serial-deleter-of-inconvenient-data.html>in
order to fool his audience became a habit for Patrick Michaels, who
quickly earned a reputation of dishonesty in the climate science world,
but has nevertheless remained a favorite of oil industry and
conservative media.
Last weekin the Wall Street Journal
<https://www.wsj.com/articles/thirty-years-on-how-well-do-global-warming-predictions-stand-up-1529623442>,
Michaels was joined by Ryan Maue in an op-ed that again grossly
distorted Hansen's 1988 paper. Maue is a young scientist with a
contrarian streak who's published some serious research on hurricanes,
but since joining the Cato Institute last year, seems to have sold off
his remaining credibility tothe fossil fuel industry
<https://www.desmogblog.com/cato-institute>.
In their WSJ opinion piece, Michaels and Maue claimed:
Global surface temperature has not increased significantly since
2000, discounting the larger-than-usual El Nino of 2015-16. Assessed
by Mr. Hansen's model, surface temperatures are behaving as if we
had capped 18 years ago the carbon-dioxide emissions responsible for
the enhanced greenhouse effect.
They provided no evidence to support this claim (evidence and facts seem
not to be allowed on the WSJ Opinion page
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jun/11/the-wall-street-journal-keeps-peddling-big-oil-propaganda>),
and it takes just 30 seconds to fact check. In reality, global surface
temperatures have increased by about0.35C since 2000
<https://www.skepticalscience.com/trend.php>- precisely in line with
Hansen's 1988 model projections, as shown above. And it's unscientific
to simply "discount" the El Nino of 2015-16, because between the years
1999 and 2014,seven were cooled by La Nina eventswhile just four
experienced an El Nino warming. Yet despite the preponderance of La Nina
events, global surface temperatures still warmed 0.15C during that time.
There's simply not an ounce of truth to Michaels' and Maue's central WSJ
claim.
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It's also worth noting that Hansen's 1988 paperaccurately predicted the
geographic pattern of global warming
<https://www.skepticalscience.com/Hansen-1988-prediction-advanced.htm>,
with the Arctic region warming fastest and more warming over land masses
than the oceans. And climate deniers in the 1980s like Richard
Lindzenwere predicting
<https://www.skepticalscience.com/lindzen-illusion-2-lindzen-vs-hansen-1980s.html>"that
the likelihood over the next century of greenhouse warming reaching
magnitudes comparable to natural variability seems small." If anyone
deserves criticism for inaccurate climate predictions, it's deniers like
Lindzen who thought there wouldn't be any significant warming, when in
reality we've seen the dramatic global warming that James Hansen predicted.
Michaels' and Maue's misinformation didn't stop there:
Why should people world-wide pay drastic costs to cut emissions when
the global temperature is acting as if those cuts have already been mad
Michaels and Maue don't want us to cut carbon pollution, and it's easy
to understand why. They work for the Cato Institute, whichwas co-founded
by and is heavily controlled by the Koch brothers
<https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/25/cato-institute-and-koch-brothers-reach-agreement/>,
who have donated more than $30 million to Cato.As Michaels admitted
<https://thinkprogress.org/catos-pat-michaels-admits-40-percent-of-funding-comes-from-big-oil-9db8d728a494/>,
they're basically fossil fuel industry employees.
But the answers to their question are simple. As climate scientists have
predicted for decades, global temperatures are rising dangerously
rapidly. Moreover, research has shown thatthe economic benefits of
cutting carbon pollution far outweigh the costs
<https://thebulletin.org/benefits-curbing-climate-change-far-outweigh-costs11894>.
Michaels and Maue want us to bet the future of all life on Earth. They
want us to put all our chips on black - a bet that burning billions of
barrels of oil and billions of tons of coal every year won't cause
dangerous climate change. They want us to make that bet even though
their arguments are based on unsupported lies, whilst they cash
paychecks from the Koch brothers.
We would have to be incredible suckers to take their bet.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jun/25/30-years-later-deniers-are-still-lying-about-hansens-amazing-global-warming-prediction
[Legal future]
*Amidst Supreme Court Nightmare, We Should Recognize that the Road
Toward Climate Justice Will Be Long and Arduous
<https://robertscribbler.com/2018/06/29/amidst-supreme-court-nightmare-we-should-recognize-that-the-road-toward-climate-justice-will-be-long-and-arduous/>*
"There is a nation, which in all its strength and virtue is in the
grips of a group of ruthless men, preaching a gospel of intolerance
and racial pride - unrestrained by law, by parliament, or by public
opinion…" - Winston Churchill, 1934
Let us pray that we do not become such a nation. That we retain the
resolve to resist authoritarianism, bigotry, and oppression of the weak,
the helpless, minorities, women, and those in dire need of our aid. That
we hold fast the will to keep fighting for a world capable of supporting
the rich array of life that gives us life in turn...
https://robertscribbler.com/2018/06/29/amidst-supreme-court-nightmare-we-should-recognize-that-the-road-toward-climate-justice-will-be-long-and-arduous/
[youth activism set for July 21st]
*We are the ones we've been waiting for. <http://thisiszerohour.org/>*
The mission of the Zero Hour movement is to center the voices of diverse
youth in the conversation around climate and environmental justice. Zero
Hour is a youth-led movement creating entry points, training, and
resources for new young activists and organizers (and adults who support
our vision) wanting to take concrete action around climate change.
Together, we are a movement of unstoppable youth organizing to protect
our rights and access to the natural resources and a clean, safe, and
healthy environment that will ensure a livable future where we not just
survive, but flourish.
March with us July 21, 2018.
http://thisiszerohour.org/
*This Day in Climate History - June 30, 2002
<http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/30/opinion/unhealthy-air.html> - from
D.R. Tucker*
June 30, 2002: Republican-turned-Independent Senator Jim Jeffords of
Vermont calls out President George W. Bush in a New York Times piece for
his administration's reckless disregard of climate science.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/30/opinion/unhealthy-air.html
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