[TheClimate.Vote] May 22, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Tue May 22 10:36:32 EDT 2018

/May 22, 2018/

[Hot Nexus News] 
<https://mailchi.mp/climatenexus/nps-reinserts-climate-into-report-death-toll-climbs-in-karachi-more?e=95b355344d>
Heat Pounds Karachi: Temperatures hit 111 degrees F in Karachi Monday as 
the death toll from the weekend's heat wave continues to climb. Private 
organizations, including the foundations that run the city's morgue and 
ambulance service, confirmed to news outlets Tuesday that 65 people have 
died in recent days. The Pakistani government did not confirm the 
figures, but issued warnings to the city's 15 million residents - most 
of whom are fasting for Ramadan and experiencing simultaneous power 
outages - to take precautions. A heat wave killed over 1,000 people in 
the megacity in 2015.(New York Times 
<https://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=fb4ff75658&e=95b355344d> 
$, AP 
<https://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=53abc99eee&e=95b355344d>, 
The Guardian 
<https://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=de9c42ca05&e=95b355344d>, 
Reuters 
<https://climatenexus.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=ca5b3cc23d&e=95b355344d>)
https://mailchi.mp/climatenexus/nps-reinserts-climate-into-report-death-toll-climbs-in-karachi-more?e=95b355344d

[video]
*2018 Hurricane Season: A Preview 
<https://climatecrocks.com/2018/05/21/2018-hurricane-season-a-preview/>*
May 21, 2018
Hurricane Season starting soon, while many areas will still be 
recovering from last year's  record destruction.  What's the forecast?
Video Peter Jacobs on Hurricane Season 2018 
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah5e6zkMTRg> https://youtu.be/ah5e6zkMTRg
Peter Jacobs, above,  is a PhD student and researcher at George Mason 
University Department of Environmental Science and Policy, and with 
climate comms ace John Cook, whips up the Evidence Squared podcast.
Market Watch:
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which kicks off June 1, is expected 
to bring at least 14 named storms, according to researchers, putting it 
above the long-term average of 11 recorded between 1950 and the present day.
Colorado State University is forecasting 14 named storms, including 
seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. North Carolina State 
University is forecasting 14 to 18 named storms, seven of which are 
expected to grow to hurricane strength, and three to five of which may 
become major hurricanes, defined as Category 3 or higher.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and includes 
the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The 
Pacific season, which covers the Eastern Pacific basin, started on May 
15 and also runs through Nov. 30.
Last week, the first tropical depression of the season formed far from 
the west coast of Mexico, but eventually dissipated, according to the 
Weather Network. The National Hurricane Center is urging coastal 
residents to start preparations now for an active season.
There were 18 named storms in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, 
according to the NHC, in what was one of the deadliest - and costliest - 
seasons ever. Of that total, 10 became hurricanes, and six of those were 
Category 3 storms or higher.
https://climatecrocks.com/2018/05/21/2018-hurricane-season-a-preview/
- - -
[video interview]
*The Reasons Behind Puerto Rico's Blackout* 
<https://youtu.be/baagXcDijKs> | FRONTLINE + NPR
May 1, 2018
FRONTLINE and NPR investigate the federal response to Hurricane Maria -- 
and uncover a government relief effort in chaos, struggling with key 
contracts, basic supplies and its own workforce.
Especially in contrast to the government's response to Hurricanes Harvey 
and Irma on the U.S. mainland.
In the above excerpt from "Blackout in Puerto Rico," NPR's Laura 
Sullivan, the documentary's correspondent, reports that just over a week 
after the storms hit, the federal government had three times as many 
people on the ground in Texas, and twice as many in Florida, as it did 
in Puerto Rico.
And while Puerto Rico's hiring of Whitefish, a company with no 
experience restoring power grids, caused controversy, few knew that the 
federal government had taken a similar step.
"All of a sudden, about the eighth day in, the administration asked us 
to be able to step up and to be able to take on this mission of grid 
repair," said Lt. Gen Todd Semonite, Chief Engineer of the Army Corps of 
Engineers, about his agency's effort to restore power. "But it is not 
something that we even planned on doing in any kind of a disaster. We 
don't do grid repair., usually, normally, doctrinally …"
In the above excerpt, Sullivan talks with Semonite about how the Army 
Corps went on to contract with a company that, while experienced in 
building power plants, had no experience putting power grids back 
together. She also speaks with questions FEMA's Michael Byrne, the 
agency's coordinating officer for Puerto Rico, who defends the federal 
response.
- - - -
*Powering Puerto Rico <https://youtu.be/sBeivGA2b6E>* | FRONTLINE
video https://youtu.be/sBeivGA2b6E
Meet Oscar Carrion, a self-taught electrician who's putting his life on 
the line to restore power in his community.
Watch "Blackout in Puerto Rico" starting May 1st, 2018: 
https://to.pbs.org/2Ha8leY

[Western Journal]
*Scientist Happy She Destroyed Her Own Career Fighting Trump on Climate 
Change 
<https://www.westernjournal.com/scientist-happy-she-destroyed-her-own-career-fighting-trump-on-climate-change/>*
By Michael Bastasch
May 21, 2018
A University of Colorado research scientist said she was "extremely 
happy" the National Park Service released a study on sea level rise even 
though it "probably destroyed" her career doing agency research.
Researcher Maria Caffrey refused to accept corrections from the NPS that 
supposedly got rid of words linking global warming to human activity.
The news site Reveal reported on the study's drafting in April.
"The fight probably destroyed my career with the [NPS] but it will be 
worth it if we can uphold the truth and ensure that scientific integrity 
of other scientists won't be challenged so easily in the future," 
Caffrey told Reveal.
Reveal went through 2,000 pages of draft reports to find "a park service 
official crossed out the word 'anthropogenic,' the term for people's 
impact on nature, in five places" and "[t]hree references to 'human 
activities' causing climate change also were removed."
Critics held up Caffrey's report as an example of the Trump 
administration censoring science, but Reveal's reporting shows the edits 
were largely made by a career public affairs official, not a political 
appointee.
Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke denied changing "a comma" in the study, 
which presented catastrophic scenarios of sea level rise at national 
parks at monuments around the country.
Caffrey said her study would help officials plan for future climate 
change...
- - - -
Critics held up Caffrey's report as an example of the Trump 
administration censoring science, but Reveal's reporting shows the edits 
were largely made by a career public affairs official, not a political 
appointee.
Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke denied changing "a comma" in the study, 
which presented catastrophic scenarios of sea level rise at national 
parks at monuments around the country.
Caffrey said her study would help officials plan for future climate change.
More at: 
https://www.westernjournal.com/scientist-happy-she-destroyed-her-own-career-fighting-trump-on-climate-change/

[Weather.com]
*In Del Mar, a 'Planned Retreat' May Be Only Option as Seas Rise 
<https://weather.com/news/news/2018-05-21-del-mar-california-considers-managed-retreat>*
There aren't many easy answers in the Southern California town of Del 
Mar, where city leaders and residents are trying to figure out a way to 
combat rising seas in an area where million-dollar homes line the coast.
One idea being floated in low-lying areas of the town is a "planned 
retreat," which would eventually tear down structures most threatened by 
rising sea levels, according to the Los Angeles Times. If this plan were 
put into place, many residents who live along Del Mar's most 
sought-after real estate would have to move.
- - - - -
But owners of the 600 or so homes located within a few feet of sea level 
say there has to be another way. As meetings continue and city leaders 
attempt to strike the right balance between preparing the coast for sea 
level rise and working with coastal residents on the best plan, some 
locals say these discussions alone are hurting their property values.
"The conversations have done damage enough," local real estate agent 
Csilla Crouch told the San Diego Union-Tribune. "Please delete this 
concept entirely."
The Del Mar City Council planned to meet again on Monday to further 
discuss the "planned retreat," which also involves gradually removing 
sea walls, roads and public buildings ahead of the rising seas, the L.A. 
Times added. As for the residents who have put major home-improvement 
projects on hold and fear for their home values if the plan gains 
traction, they're already preparing their list of demands if retreat 
becomes reality.
"They better come along with a big heavy bucket of money," Beach Colony 
resident Herb Montgomery told the L.A. Times when asked what would be 
needed to get him and his wife out of their home. "People should be 
remunerated for the investments they made."
https://weather.com/news/news/2018-05-21-del-mar-california-considers-managed-retreat

*Global warming linked with rising antibiotic resistance 
<https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2018/05/21/Global-warming-linked-with-rising-antibiotic-resistance/5821526923808/>*
By Brooks Hays
May 21 (UPI) -- New research suggests rising temperatures are 
encouraging antibiotic resistance in cities across the United States.
Until now, health researchers assumed antibiotic resistance was 
primarily the result of overprescription and overuse. But a new study 
suggests climate change is also to blame.
MacFadden and his colleagues analyzed instances of antibiotic resistance 
to three common bacterial strains, E. coli, K. pneumoniae and S. aureus, 
as reported by hospitals across the country.
When researchers compared the data with weather patterns, their analysis 
-- detailed in the journal Nature Climate Change -- revealed a 
correlation between local temperature increases, population densities 
and antibiotic resistance. Scientists acknowledged that additional 
research will be necessary to confirm a cause-and-effect relationship....
  - - - -
"The bottom line is that our findings highlight a dire need to invest 
more research efforts into improving our understanding of the 
interconnectedness of infectious disease, medicine and our changing 
environment," said John Brownstein, a professor of pediatrics at HMS.
More at: 
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2018/05/21/Global-warming-linked-with-rising-antibiotic-resistance/5821526923808/

[climate-changed]
*'Climate Change Is Real,' Carmakers Tell White House in Letter 
<https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-21/carmakers-tell-white-house-that-climate-change-is-real-in-letter>*
Automakers urged the White House to cooperate with California officials 
in a coming rewrite of vehicle efficiency standards, saying "climate 
change is real."
The plea came in a May 3 letter to the White House's Office of 
Management and Budget from the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, the 
industry's leading trade group. It said carmakers "strongly support" 
continued alignment between federal mileage standards and those set by 
California. General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., Daimler AG and nine 
other carmakers are members of the Alliance...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-21/carmakers-tell-white-house-that-climate-change-is-real-in-letter

[Bill McKibben in RollingStone]
*Hit Fossil Fuels Where It Hurts – the Bottom Line 
<https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/mckibben-hit-fossil-fuels-where-it-hurts-the-bottom-line-w520337>*
The divestment movement is having a big impact, and holdouts may be 
missing their one great chance to really change the world
By Bill McKibben
An envelope arrived from the New York State Comptroller's office the 
other day, with a check inside for $108. Apparently I'd left it sitting 
in some bank account years ago, and now it was being returned. Free 
money is good fun, and where we live $108 buys you the best dinner in 
town, which my wife and I enjoyed, raising a small toast to the 
efficiency of the Empire State's comptroller, Thomas DiNapoli.
But only a small toast. Because as smoothly as DiNapoli seems to perform 
the basic duties of his office, he has so far whiffed on the one great 
chance he'll ever have to really affect the world. He's continuing to 
invest billions of pension dollars in big oil, even as the industry 
refuses to grapple seriously with global warming. Because of his 
high-profile insistence on "engagement" with the industry, he's become a 
stand-in for a thousand other political "leaders" who can't quite summon 
the nerve necessary to break with the fossil-fuel industry, even when 
science and economics are making it clear where the future must lie. 
It's so much easier to keep doing what you've always done – but at this 
point inertia is the planet's most powerful enemy, and DiNapoli is 
threatening to become inertia's avatar.

The movement for fossil-fuel divestment was partly born in the pages of 
this magazine six years ago, when an essay of mine went unexpectedly 
viral. That piece showed the new math of climate change: The big oil, 
gas and coal producers had reserves in the ground that contained five 
times the carbon any scientist said we could burn and stay below the 
catastrophic temperature rises that the planet's governments had pledged 
to avoid. That is, the business plans of Exxon and Chevron and Shell and 
the rest committed them to wrecking the planet – simple math, simple 
physics and simple morality. If it's wrong to wreck the planet, it's 
wrong to profit from the wreckage.

That argument was enough to get the ball rolling. Students at hundreds 
of campuses around the world launched divestment campaigns that echoed 
the one against South African apartheid a generation ago. The first 
school to divest was tiny Unity College in Maine, which pulled its $13 
million endowment in November 2012. By this winter, the University of 
California system, biggest in the hemisphere, had joined, along with a 
third of the universities in the U.K., and the World Council of 
Churches, and dozens of Christian denominations and Catholic diocese, as 
well as many of the biggest foundations on the planet. Even the 
Rockefeller heirs, who trace their fortune to the original oil baron, 
have sold their shares. By now endowments and portfolios worth more than 
$6 trillion have divested in part or in whole, and it's become by far 
the biggest effort of its kind in history.

And intriguingly, most of the recent converts have been moved as much by 
self-interest as by moral fervor. As the years have gone by, the 
fossil-fuel sector has dramatically underperformed the rest of the 
economy. That's because it's under increasing and unrelenting pressure 
from new technology – the ever-cheaper solar and wind power that 
everyone can see will take a huge chunk of their business away. So now 
it's also the largest insurance company in France that's divested, and 
the sovereign wealth fund of Norway (the biggest pool of money on Earth, 
earned from North Sea oil wells). When New York City decided to divest 
in January, the press conference was held in a building flooded by 
Hurricane Sandy – clearly fear of climate change was the key reason for 
divestment, and they lit up the Empire State Building green that night 
to make the point. But the green, as Mayor Bill de Blasio was quick to 
point out, also stood for the money the city was saving its pensioners 
by ensuring that they weren't stuck paying for the fossil-fuel decline.

There have been holdouts, of course – Harvard, run by a "board of 
overseers" drawn heavily from Wall Street, refused to participate 
officially. And then there's DiNapoli, who's played the most intriguing 
role. So far he's failed to divest the state's $200 billion in pension 
funds from fossil fuels despite a demand from New York's Gov. Andrew 
Cuomo that he do so, and despite the example set by the state's biggest 
city, whose own comptroller, Scott Stringer, has become an outspoken 
advocate for divestment. Though DiNapoli clearly has the political 
backing to divest the state's holdings, he's continued down a different 
path, promising to "engage" with the fossil-fuel companies instead, to 
somehow turn them green. In the meantime, it's business as usual. In 
fact, the state continues to run up its investment in Exxon, filthiest 
of them all – it's now the fifth-biggest investment in New York state's 
portfolio.

Shareholder engagement with companies can be a powerful tool: Big 
investors routinely use their clout to argue for, say, more diverse 
representation on company boards of directors, or for modest changes in 
the way they do their business. But it's an approach that's never made 
much sense with the fossil-fuel industry, where the problem is not some 
flaw in the business plan. The flaw is the business plan. Exxon exists 
to dig up hydrocarbons and sell them so they can be burned. DiNapoli 
apparently thought he could force real change: For years he and others 
sponsored resolutions at Exxon annual meetings demanding reforms. 
Finally, a year ago, the company grudgingly agreed to prepare a "climate 
risk report" showing how the fight against global warming might stress 
their business model. It wasn't much of a victory, but it seemed like 
something to show for all that work. DiNapoli, being a politician, 
issued a press release praising himself. "Exxon's decision demonstrates 
that investors have the power to hold corporations accountable and to 
compel them to address our very real climate-related concerns," he said.

But he and his like-minded colleagues were being played for fools. Exxon 
took just a few weeks to prepare the report, and when it came out it 
showed the company hadn't changed one whit. Climate change posed 
essentially no risk to its future, Exxon insisted. It still planned on 
burning almost all its reserves, and indeed would go on exploring for 
new oil. It was Lucy with the football, and DiNapoli was Charlie Brown 
lying on his back. To add insult to injury, the industry arranged for 
the Trump administration to lift a block on offshore oil drilling along 
the Atlantic coast – including Long Island, where DiNapoli began his 
political career. As an environmentalist.

So the question is, what happens next. Exxon, for instance, has another 
shareholder meeting later this month. Big investors have already 
announced that they find Exxon's climate-risk report "defective." It's 
possible that they'll just ask for another one and the charade will 
carry on for a few more years, and a few more tenths of a degree, and a 
few more inches of sea-level rise. It's a dance everyone has grown 
comfortable with. The Independent Petroleum Association of America 
recently wrote a letter to the Financial Times saying "active engagement 
will always be the practical choice for investors," the operative word 
being "always."

If you wonder why the oil industry doesn't mind the DiNapolis of the 
world using it as an occasional punching bag, it's because the 
alternative – divestment – truly scares them. In the past six months, a 
pair of academic studies have demonstrated that the six-year campaign 
has had two powerful effects. One of those studies showed that 
divestment had dragged the issue of climate change, and the oil 
industry's culpability for it, squarely into the political mainstream, 
"dramatically alter[ing] the climate change debate." That was our aim as 
campaigners from the start – we wanted to help take away fossil fuel's 
social license. But even we were surprised to read the other study, 
which demonstrated that divestment had actually begun to cost the 
industry real money. As the researchers put it, "We've concluded that 
investors, and the market as a whole, perceive divestment as integral to 
the long-term valuation of the fossil fuel industry. Lower share prices 
increase the costs of capital for the fossil fuel industry, which in 
turn decreases their ability to explore new resources." Which is just 
what the physicist ordered.

The oil industry is slowly being cornered, like the tobacco industry 
before it. Just as they once promised to go "Smoke Free," towns across 
the country are now pledging to go "Fossil Free," banning new 
fossil-fuel projects and committing to 100 percent renewable energy for 
all. New York City is suing the five biggest oil companies for the 
damages that came with climate change; so are San Francisco and Seattle, 
where the county executive put the case plainly: "The companies that 
profited the most from fossil fuels should help bear the costs of 
managing these disasters," he said, and it's hard to disagree – or to 
add up the potential damages. Sea-level rise alone is likely to be 
costing the planet tens of trillions (with a T) of dollars by the end of 
the century – and even at their most profitable back in the dirty old 
days, oil companies didn't make that kind of money. Cities are likely to 
be underwater, but so are investments.

So the moment has come when the steady stream of divestment 
announcements needs to turn into a flood. And Tom DiNapoli might still 
turn out to be a bit of a hero. After all, no one can claim to have 
tried longer and harder to make Exxon and its ilk see the light. And 
he's still trying: Reached for comment, DiNapoli's office told me, 
"Given Exxon Mobil's disappointing 2 degree scenario report, we continue 
to push the company to adapt to the growing low carbon global economy." 
But in March, DiNapoli and Cuomo announced the creation of the 
Decarbonization Advisory Panel, which will evaluate divestment and other 
strategies for dealing with climate change. Its first meeting was in 
early May, and when DiNapoli made a recent campaign stop in Manhattan's 
West Village, journalists reported that divestment was his office's 
"goal," but that DiNapoli said it needed to be done carefully to avoid 
damaging pensioners: "We have to balance it. I'm going to approach it in 
a very deliberate way," he said.

Which would be fine with the divestment movement, which from its start 
has asked only that leaders commit to selling stock, and take a maximum 
of five years to do it. But with carbon dioxide hitting levels not seen 
in 15 million years, DiNapoli and others need to get the ball rolling 
right this minute, standing up to the anti-science policy pouring out of 
Washington. What matters is the message that he and others decide to 
send, the level of courage these leaders muster. Because it's not 
DiNapoli's fault that Exxon won't budge – it turns out that the tiger in 
the tank simply won't change his stripes. It's only DiNapoli's fault if 
he won't budge, he and the others like him who cling to the old normal. 
You wouldn't have guessed the state comptroller of New York might make a 
palpable difference in how high the seas will eventually rise or how 
many species will persist into the next century. But he and a thousand 
others like him could – and it would be a gift worth far more than that 
$108.
moe at: 
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/mckibben-hit-fossil-fuels-where-it-hurts-the-bottom-line-w520337

[insects]
*Climate change broadens threat of emerald ash borer 
<https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-05/uow-ccb051718.php>*
University of Waterloo
More Canadian cities will experience damage from the emerald ash borer 
than previously thought. As a result of climate change and fewer days of 
extreme cold, the beetle may eat its way further north than originally 
estimated.
Kim Cuddington, a professor of biology at the University of Waterloo, 
led the team that produced a probability map for North America showing 
where the emerald ash borer is likely to kill trees.
"We ran specific predictions to help Canadian cities decide if they need 
to make plans before they're affected," said Cuddington. "Calgary is 
likely to experience damage, as are Thunder Bay, Prince George and 
Winnipeg. Edmonton and Saskatoon are less likely, but they should remain 
vigilant."
So far, the wood-boring beetle has wiped out tens of millions of ash 
trees and will likely cost municipalities $2 billion. Still, everyone 
expected the species' rapid migration would be stopped by Canada's 
extremely cold temperatures.
"This should be a wake-up call for how we think about invasive species," 
said Cuddington. "We need to develop preemptive measures as well as 
mitigate potential impacts. By the time we see the damage, it's almost 
too late."
According to previous studies, prepupae can survive in temperatures as 
low as -34ºC. Cuddington and her group confirmed the temperature found 
under the bark where the insect overwinters is warmer than the outside.
"We took a different approach from traditional range maps and charted 
the statistical probability of under-bark temperatures being above this 
lethal limit for at least six years," said Cuddington. "That's just long 
enough for the insect to kill its host tree."
This is one of the first studies to couple an extensive empirical data 
set with measures of climate variability using a mechanistic modelling 
approach. Cuddington says researchers need to think more carefully about 
how a changing and unpredictable climate relates to the biology of an 
invasive species and their risk of doing damage, both economically and 
ecologically.
###
The research appears in the journal Biological Invasions.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-05/uow-ccb051718.php

[From India]
*Response of developed nations to tackle climate change 'not adequate'* 
<https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/environment/global-warming/response-of-developed-nations-to-tackle-climate-change-not-adequate-harsh-vardhan/articleshow/64248450.cms>
Harsh Vardhan - May 20, 2018
NEW DELHI: Noting that the world is at a critical stage in combating 
climate change, environment minister Harsh Vardhan said on Sunday that 
the response of the developed nations to tackle the issue is still "not 
adequate".
He said this in his intervention at the 26th BASIC Ministerial Meeting 
of Environment Ministers in Durban. The grouping is a bloc of four 
countries - Brazil, South Africa, India and China - formed by an 
agreement on November 28, 2009.
Read more at: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/64248450.cms

*This Day in Climate History - May 22, 2014 
<http://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/james-okeefes-latest-bogus-claim-busted-263774275727> 
- from D.R. Tucker*
MSNBC's Chris Hayes and filmmaker Josh Fox discuss the latest
right-wing effort to assault fracking opponents.
http://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/james-okeefes-latest-bogus-claim-busted-263774275727#

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