[TheClimate.Vote] October 1, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Mon Oct 1 09:37:55 EDT 2018
/October 1, 2018/
[Washington Post puts forth Holthaus opinion video $]
*Climate change wrought this freak of nature*
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-brought-florence-upon-ourselves/2018/09/12/eaf376ca-b6b2-11e8-b79f-f6e31e555258_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3d95c1352ae8>
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-brought-florence-upon-ourselves/2018/09/12/eaf376ca-b6b2-11e8-b79f-f6e31e555258_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3d95c1352ae8
[Risk Analysis Journal]
*A Data--Driven Approach to Assessing Supply Inadequacy Risks Due to
Climate--Induced Shifts in Electricity Demand
<https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.13192>*
Sayanti Mukherjee - Roshanak Nateghi
First published: 24 September 2018 https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13192
Abstract
The U.S. electric power system is increasingly vulnerable to the
adverse impacts of extreme climate events. Supply inadequacy risk
can result from climate‐induced shifts in electricity demand and/or
damaged physical assets due to hydro‐meteorological hazards and
climate change. In this article, we focus on the risks associated
with the unanticipated climate‐induced demand shifts and propose a
data‐driven approach to identify risk factors that render the
electricity sector vulnerable in the face of future climate
variability and change. More specifically, we have leveraged
advanced supervised learning theory to identify the key predictors
of climate‐sensitive demand in the residential, commercial, and
industrial sectors. Our analysis indicates that variations in mean
dew point temperature is the common major risk factor across all the
three sectors. We have also conducted a statistical sensitivity
analysis to assess the variability in the projected demand as a
function of the key climate risk factor. We then propose the use of
scenario‐based heat maps as a tool to communicate the inadequacy
risks to stakeholders and decisionmakers. While we use the state of
Ohio as a case study, our proposed approach is equally applicable to
all other states.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.13192
[Mary Ellen Harte - opinion - vote]
*Trump Administration Admits Climate Change Is Worsening, -- and That It
Does Not Care
<https://climatechangereports.wordpress.com/2018/09/30/trump-administration-admits-climate-change-is-worsening-and-that-it-does-not-care/>*
Posted on September 30, 2018 by melharte
In the latest Orwellian logic to erupt out of the Trump Administration,
they have submitted a 500 page report produced by the National Highway
Safety Administration that acknowledges a 7 degree Fahrenheit increase
in average global temperature by 2100, assuming that no action is taken
to stop it, reports the Washington Post, and then uses this assumption -
ie, that Trump doesn't care, so he will not direct anyone to do anything
about it - as a way of justifying the loosening of regulations that
will, in fact, worsen climate change faster.
So, just to be clear: Trump, in essence, is saying, "Yeah, climate
change is happening but I don't care. I care more that my industrial
magnate friends are able to make more money more easily, even if it
means I'm worsening climate change for every US citizen, including me
and my kids, and including those who voted for me." Of course, the man
appears to be incapable of understanding that what he is doing will harm
himself and his family, and much less anyone else.
Voting his enablers -- that is, every Congressional representative and
Senator who supports him -- out of Congress in November 2018 is the most
powerful way we can slow and stop this madman. Register to vote, update
your address, or request an absentee ballot at TurboVote or
RocktheVote. And put that previous sentence in your email auto
signature to alert anyone you email. Do it for your friends, family and
future.
https://climatechangereports.wordpress.com/2018/09/30/trump-administration-admits-climate-change-is-worsening-and-that-it-does-not-care/
[plan for a different future]
*California turns up the heat on climate change disclosures
<https://www.ft.com/content/a4c8fffa-869a-3e76-8e05-e8acc572d293>*
New law requires big pension funds to provide more information on
environmental risk...
The new law in California will require Calpers (the California Public
Employees' Retirement System), which oversees $360bn in assets, and
Calstrs (the $228bn California State Teachers' Retirement System) to
report publicly on the climate-related financial risk of their public
market portfolio...
https://www.ft.com/content/a4c8fffa-869a-3e76-8e05-e8acc572d293
[promoting or restraining]
*Koch-Funded Groups--Yet Again--Speak Out Against Electric Vehicle Tax
Credi
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/09/27/koch-funded-groups-again-speak-out-against-electric-vehicle-tax-credits>**ts
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/09/27/koch-funded-groups-again-speak-out-against-electric-vehicle-tax-credits>*
By Ben Jervey - September 27, 2018
A coalition of thirty conservative free-market advocacy organizations --
the majority of which have clear ties to Charles and David Koch through
their funding or leadership -- have sent a letter to House Ways and
Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) urging that Congress halt any
expansion of the electric vehicle tax credit, or scrap it entirely.
The groups do not mention in the letter that they benefit financially
from the Koch brothers' petrochemical refining fortune, nor that
electric vehicles pose the largest and most immediate threat to the oil
and refining industries.
The letter arrived as an immediate response to a bill introduced last
week that would extend the 2009 tax credit for another ten years. The
Electric Cars Act of 2018, introduced by Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon)
and others, would also lift the cap of 200,000 vehicles sold by each
manufacturer that would qualify for the credit.
Notably, the proposed bill directly addresses one of the most common
criticisms of the tax credit -- that it is predominantly subsidizing
purchases of high-income Americans. The bill would allow buyers to
spread the tax credit out over a 5-year period, or apply the credit at
the point of sale, which would effectively make the full $7,500 credit
easier to access for low- and middle-income buyers without large tax
liability...
- - - - -
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/09/27/koch-funded-groups-again-speak-out-against-electric-vehicle-tax-credits
[Political Martyr reborn]
*Bob Inglis, a Republican believer in climate change, is out to convert
his party
<https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bob-inglis-republican-believer-climate-change-out-convert-his-party-n912066>*
Inglis is doubling down on the beliefs that cost him his seat in
Congress: Climate change is real, and Republicans must act.
by James Rainey - Sep.30.2018
CHARLESTON, S.C. -- Eight years ago, Bob Inglis ran for a seventh term
in the U.S. House of Representatives and didn't even make it out of the
Republican primary. He lost by nearly 3 to 1. His estrangement from
South Carolina voters ran deep, friends-gone-missing and
allies-turned-enemies deep.
The chief reason Inglis was rejected by his constituents? He not only
believed climate change was real but, as a solution, he proposed a tax
on carbon. In a deeply conservative corner of one of the most
conservative states in America, Republicans did not welcome those views.
Such a "spectacular face plant," as Inglis now calls it, would have sent
many politicians scrambling for safe haven. A lobbying job is a standard
refuge. So is a return to a previous life -- in Inglis' case, real
estate law.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bob-inglis-republican-believer-climate-change-out-convert-his-party-n912066
[One thing connects to another]
*Climate Emissions From Gulf Coast's New Petrochemical, Oil and Gas
Projects Same as 29 New Coal Power Plants
<https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/09/27/texas-louisiana-new-petrochemical-oil-gas-projects-climate-change-29-coal-power>*
By Sharon Kelly - September 27, 2018
In the last six years, officials in Texas and Louisiana issued permits
allowing 74 petrochemical, oil, and gas projects to pump as much
climate-warming pollution into the atmosphere as running 29 coal-fired
power plants around the clock, according to numbers released September
26 by the nonprofit watchdog Environmental Integrity Project.
And construction appears to be speeding up, with over 40 percent of
those projects permitted between 2016 and mid-2018. The 31 most recent
projects combined will add 50 million tons of greenhouse gases -- equal
to 11 new coal-fired power plants -- to the world's atmosphere in a
year, the watchdog adds.
Environmentalists pointed to the risks that climate change poses to Gulf
Coast states, where these projects are being built, and noted that the
greenhouse effect has already led to sea level rise and a higher risk of
extreme storms...
- - - -
An investigative report this year by the Associated Press and the
Houston Chronicle linked Hurricane Harvey to over 100 separate toxic
discharges from pipelines, refineries, and chemical plants, including a
spill of nearly a half billion gallons of stormwater mixed with
industrial waste from ExxonMobil Corp.'s Olefins plant in Baytown,
Texas. Many of the spills and accidents resulting from Harvey were never
publicized, the investigation found, and officials had downplayed some
of the largest events and failed to collect data about potential
contamination.
"As we saw from Hurricane Harvey last year, building massive refineries
and petrochemical plants in the flood zone without adequate planning or
engineering is not just a risk to the environment, but a real potential
health hazard, as well," said Bakeyah Nelson, Executive Director of Air
Alliance Houston.
During Florence, spills of coal ash, sewage, and hog waste have made
headlines. The region is also home to over 1,000 sites where chemicals
are stored or used, according to The New York Times, and to over 70
high-priority Superfund sites. The Environmental Protection Agency asked
four families in Cheraw, South Carolina, to evacuate their homes on
Wednesday after finding high levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs),
a long-lasting class of toxic and banned chemicals, from a nearby
Superfund site.
The region that flooded from Florence contains far less chemical, oil,
and gas production infrastructure than either the Gulf Coast or
Marcellus region.
"Hurricane season is a good time to think about the impact these big
greenhouse gas emitters will have on global warming," Eric Schaeffer,
director of the Environmental Integrity Project, said in a statement
accompanying the new report. "We had better start thinking about whether
all this oil and gas infrastructure is strong enough and safe enough to
withstand the severe storms that are sure to follow."
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/09/27/texas-louisiana-new-petrochemical-oil-gas-projects-climate-change-29-coal-power
[good question worth repeating]
*Should I tell my Republican friend that her Florida mansion is doomed
by sea-level rise?
<https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/09/advice-should-i-warn-my-friend-about-rising-sea-levels/>*
In this new advice column, climate journalist Sara Peach answers your
questions about how climate change could affect you and the people you
love...my advice is to start talking.
Suggestions
I keep daydreaming about what would happen if you scheduled a visit
to your friend to coincide with unusually high tides and street
flooding -- and used that as a conversation starter. (A good bet
would be to visit on the date of the full moon in September or
October, when the alignment of the sun, the Earth, and the moon give
an extra tug to the tides.)
However, you'll probably get better results if you avoid a single
blow-out conversation in which you present your friend with a garden
gnome sporting a snorkel and then confront/overwhelm her with all of
the facts.
Instead, try chatting about sea-level rise in small doses that fit
within the natural flow of your relationship.
Ask questions. Has she noticed any flooding? How does that affect
her day-to-day life? What does she think she might do if the
flooding gets worse in the future?
Ideally, your discussions will shift into a mode in which she starts
asking you questions. What you're aiming for is conversation in
which both of you are curious about what the other has to say, and
neither of you is lecturing -- in other words, a normal conversation
between two humans who like each other.
You may find that your friend responds defensively. If she shuts down
your attempts at conversation, take comfort in the fact that ultimately,
she is in charge of her house and her life. And assuming that not all of
her equity is tied up in her expensive mansion, she will have the
resources to take care of herself - unlike many low-income residents of
South Florida and other coastal communities worldwide.
Wondering how climate change could affect you or your loved ones? Send
your questions to sara at yaleclimateconnections.org. Questions may be
edited for length and clarity.
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/09/advice-should-i-warn-my-friend-about-rising-sea-levels/
[the warning]
*World 'nowhere near on track' to avoid warming beyond 1.5C target
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/26/global-warming-climate-change-targets-un-report>*
Exclusive: Author of key UN climate report says limiting temperature
rise would require enormous, immediate transformation in human activity...
"It's extraordinarily challenging to get to the 1.5C target and we are
nowhere near on track to doing that," said Drew Shindell, a Duke
University climate scientist and a co-author of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change report, which will be unveiled in South Korea
next month. <http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/>
(http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/)
"While it's technically possible, it's extremely improbable, absent a
real sea change in the way we evaluate risk. We are nowhere near that."...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/26/global-warming-climate-change-targets-un-report
*This Day in Climate History - October 1, 2013
<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/10/01/warm_enough_for_you_120159.html>
- from D.R. Tucker*
October 1, 2013: Syndicated columnist Eugene Robinson writes:
"Skeptics and deniers can make all the noise they want, but a
landmark new report is unequivocal: There is a 95 percent chance
that human-generated emissions of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases are changing the climate in ways that court disaster.
"That's the bottom line from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, which Monday released the latest of its comprehensive,
every-six-years assessments of the scientific consensus about
climate change. According to the IPCC, there is only a 1-in-20
chance that human activity is not causing dangerous warming.
"You may like those betting odds. If so, let's get together for a
friendly game of poker, and please don't forget to bring cash."
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/10/01/warm_enough_for_you_120159.html
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