[TheClimate.Vote] October 6, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Oct 6 10:32:08 EDT 2018
/October 6, 2018/
[Important future]
*Why the next three months are crucial for the future of the planet
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/05/why-the-next-four-months-are-crucial-for-future-of-planet-climate-change>*
Two forthcoming major climate talks offer governments an opportunity to
respond to this year's extreme weather with decisive action
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/05/why-the-next-four-months-are-crucial-for-future-of-planet-climate-change
[One important event]
*With the world on the line, scientists outline the paths to survival
<https://grist.org/article/with-the-world-on-the-line-scientists-outline-the-paths-to-survival/>*
By Eric Holthaus - Oct 4, 2018
This week, scientists and representatives from every country on Earth
are gathering in South Korea to put the finishing touches on a report
that, if followed, would change the course of history.
The report is a roadmap for possible ways to keep climate change to 1.5
degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Anything beyond that amount of
warming, and the planet starts to really go haywire. So the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- a U.N.-sponsored, Nobel
Peace Prize-winning
<https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2007/summary/>assemblage of
scientists -- wants to show how we can avoid that. To be clear, hitting
that goal would require a radical rethink in almost every aspect of
society. But the report finds that not meeting the goal would upend life
as we know it, too.
"This will be one of the most important meetings in the IPCC's history,"
said Hoesung Lee, the group's chair, inhis opening address
<http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/session48/180930_Chair_opening_P48.pdf>on Monday.
The report will be released on October 8. Fromleaked drafts
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/27/new-leaked-draft-of-un-1-5c-climate-report-in-full-and-annotated/>,
we knowthe basics of scientists' findings
<https://phys.org/news/2018-10-mission-impossible-climate-key.html>:
World greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 -- just 15 months from
now. The scientists also show the difference in impacts between 1.5 and
2 degrees would not beminor
<https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338>-- it could be
make-or-break for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, which would
flood every coastal city on Earth should it collapse.
"The decisions we make now about whether we let 1.5 or 2 degrees or more
happen will change the world enormously," said Heleen de Coninck, a
Dutch climate scientist and one of the report's lead authors, inan
interview with the BBC
<https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45720740>. "The lives of
people will never be the same again either way, but we can influence
which future we end up with."
The report has been in the works since the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
Three years ago, during the climate talks, leaders of a few dozen small
island nations andother highly vulnerable nations
<https://thecvf.org/historic-1-5c-agreement-marks-new-era-of-climate-justice/>,
like Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, demanded the bolder 1.5 degrees
C temperature target be included in the first-ever global climate pact.
The group represents 1 billion people, and for some of the involved
countries, like the Marshall Islands,their entire existence is at stake
<http://www.climatenetwork.org/event/climate-vulnerable-forum-virtual-summit>.
At the time, the lead negotiator from that tiny Pacific island
nationused the word
<http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/10/05/climate-change-migration-is-genocide-says-marshall-islands-minister/>"genocide"
to describe the inevitable process of forced abandonment of his country
due to sea-level rise, should global temperature breach the 1.5 degree
target.
Even taking into account the policies and pledges enacted globally since
the Paris Agreement,the world is on course
<https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/>to warm between
2.6 to 3.2 degrees C by the end of the century, according to independent
analysis by Climate Action Tracker.
According toa U.N. preview of the report
<https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=5188>, meeting the 1.5
goal would "require very fast changes in electricity production,
transport, construction, agriculture and industry" worldwide, in a
globally coordinated effort to bring about a zero-carbon economy as
quickly as possible. It would also very likely require
eventuallyremoving huge amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
<https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1047610652586467328>using
technology that is not currently available at the scale that would be
necessary. And there's no time to waste: "The longer CO2 is emitted at
today's rate, the faster this decarbonization will need to be."
The worldhas already warmed by about 1.1 degrees C
<https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/1047067560745811970>, and the
implications of that are increasingly obvious. In just the three years
since the Paris Agreement was signed, we've seenthousand-year rainstorms
by the dozens <http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/>, the
most destructive hurricane season in U.S. history, disastrous fireson
almost every continent
<https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/fire-fire-everywhere-the-2018-global-wildfire-season-is-already-disastrous_us_5b5a1271e4b0de86f494ed28>,
and an unprecedented coral bleaching episode that affected70 percent of
the world's reefs
<https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/global_coral_bleaching_2014-17_status.php>.
In this age of rapid warming, the IPCC report is inherently political --
there are obvious winners and losers if the world fails to meet the
1.5-degree goal. If the world's governments are to take the implications
of IPCC's findings seriously, it would be nothing less than
revolutionary -- a radical restructuring of human society on our planet.
Right now, scientists are trying to find the precise words to describe
an impending catastrophe and the utterly heroic efforts it would take to
avert it.
"We're talking about the kind of crisis that forces us to rethink
everything we've known so far on how to build a secure future,"
Greenpeace'sKaisa Kosonen told AFP
<https://phys.org/news/2018-10-mission-impossible-climate-key.html>in
response to a draft of the report. "We have to try to make the
impossible possible."
https://grist.org/article/with-the-world-on-the-line-scientists-outline-the-paths-to-survival/
[who will they face on the Supreme Court?]
*Trump Administration's Desperation Grows as Juliana v. United States
Trial Approaches
<https://static1.squarespace.com/static/571d109b04426270152febe0/t/5bb7eb26f9619aaea3023030/1538779943136/2018.10.05+Press+Release+-+DOJ+motion+to+stay+%281%29.pdf>*
Eugene, Oregon - Today, in an unprecedented move, the Trump
administration filed another motion with
the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon to stay discovery and
trial in the landmark constitutional
climate lawsuit Juliana v. United States, pending review from the U.S.
Supreme Court.
This lawsuit was filed by 21 young people in August 2015 with support
from Our Children's Trust. The
United States government has fought the youth plaintiffs for more than
three years to get this case
dismissed, all while knowingly perpetuating the nation's fossil fuel
energy system and the climate crisis.
Judges at the U.S. District Court, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals,
and most recently, the United States
Supreme Court have repeatedly ruled in favor of the youth plaintiffs and
their right to go to trial. Their
trial is set to begin on Monday, October 29.
During a telephonic status conference yesterday between the parties and
U.S. Magistrate Judge Thomas
Coffin to discuss the government's intention to file the motion for
stay, Judge Coffin said:
"...it doesn't seem to me, looking at the landscape here, that very
much has changed since the last
motion to stay was filed...and the only 'change' is that the Court
hasn't ruled on the dispositive
motions that have been filed…I would just urge everybody to keep on
track for trial."
The youth plaintiffs and the Court noted that the only other change in
circumstance is that the parties have
expended significant time and resources in conducting discovery in
preparation for trial, and are nearing
the end of conducting 50 depositions of experts and plaintiffs in about
60 days...
- - - -
*Juliana v. United States is not about the government's failure to act
on climate. Instead, these 21 young**
**plaintiffs between the ages of 11 and 22, assert that the U.S.
government, through its affirmative actions**
**in creating a national energy system that causes climate change, is
depriving them of their constitutional**
**rights to life, liberty, and property, and has failed to protect
essential public trust resources. The case is**
**one of many related legal actions brought by youth in several states
and countries, all supported by Our**
**Children's Trust, and all seeking science-based action by governments
to stabilize the climate system.*..
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/571d109b04426270152febe0/t/5bb7eb26f9619aaea3023030/1538779943136/2018.10.05+Press+Release+-+DOJ+motion+to+stay+%281%29.pdf
[Looking to the courts]
*This Landmark Trial of Climate Activists Puts the Political System
Itself on Trial
<https://www.thenation.com/article/this-landmark-trial-of-climate-activists-puts-the-political-system-itself-on-trial/>*
In a Minnesota courtroom, the Valve Turners are using the "necessity
defense" in their shutdown of the tar-sands pipeline.
By Wen Stephenson
Most dramatic of all, 21 youth plaintiffs are suing the federal
government for its failure, under public-trust doctrine and the US
Constitution, to protect a livable climate. That case, Juliana v. United
States, has survived multiple appeals to dismiss, and this summer the
Supreme Court allowed it to proceed. The trial date is set for October
29 in federal court in Oregon.
Much like the youth plaintiffs' case, the arguments underpinning the
climate-necessity defense resonate powerfully in this political
moment--and not only as a response to our climate emergency, but equally
and inseparably, as a response to our political emergency, the crisis of
our democracy, which long predates Donald Trump and is, in fact, among
the root causes of the climate crisis itself. Far from being the
inevitable result of "human nature" (as an entire issue of The New York
Times Magazine was recently devoted to arguing, conveniently letting the
fossil-fuel industry and its political accomplices, including liberal
elites, off the hook), our current predicament is in large part the
result of deception, obstruction, and the antidemocratic rigging of our
political and economic system by corporations and private wealth. The
climate-necessity defense addresses these root causes head-on, offering
an indictment of a political system in which ordinary citizens have no
viable option but to take direct action--and inspire others to do the
same. As we're about to see in Minnesota, the best defense may actually
be a strong offense...
- - - -
"The necessity defense offers a powerful framing of why people do civil
disobedience," Skaggs told me in a recent interview. "It's a powerful
way of explaining to other people why they would take a risk like
this--as reasonable human beings. I believe that's what we need to
change political consciousness."
In other words, one might say, putting the question of climate necessity
before a jury is an exercise in democracy--at a time when democracy
itself is failing...
- - - -
And this is not an exhaustive list. "There's progress being made, some
exciting developments," Skaggs told me. "And frankly, as the climate
situation becomes more and more dire, the argument gets stronger and
stronger."
That argument goes more or less as follows. While the legal criteria for
presenting a necessity defense vary slightly from state to state, in
Minnesota the defendants must show, first, that there is an imminent
physical harm. Definitions of what counts as imminent may differ, but in
pretrial briefs the defense showed that courts have taken it to mean not
only immediate but inevitable or certain to occur. Expert witnesses on
climate science, including Hansen and scientists from the University of
Minnesota, are prepared to testify not only to the catastrophic global
threat of climate change but also local environmental and public-health
impacts in northern Minnesota that are already occurring and will only
grow worse.
Next, the defendants need to show that the harm caused by breaking the
law was significantly less than the harm caused by obeying it. In other
words, they'll argue that the harm of trespassing and minor property
damage pales in comparison to the harm of climate change caused by
transporting and burning millions of barrels of tar-sands crude, the
most carbon-intensive form of oil, each day.
The defense must also show that there was no viable legal alternative to
breaking the law; that is, no alternative that one could reasonably
expect to be effective. And then they must show a direct causal
connection between breaking the law and preventing the harm; in other
words, that the defendants had reason to believe that their direct
action would be effective--not necessarily all by itself, but that it
would effectively contribute to preventing the harm.
https://www.thenation.com/article/this-landmark-trial-of-climate-activists-puts-the-political-system-itself-on-trial/
[See also video of 3D rendering]
*Food security under changing climate
<https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/uod-fsu100418.php>*
UD part of $3.5 million NSF-funded study to improve key crop resilience
UNIVERSITY OF DELAWARE
An interdisciplinary team of researchers from the University of
Delaware, the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center and Stanford
University have been awarded a four-year, $3.5 million National Science
Foundation grant to address concerns about reduced harvests of corn and
other cereal grasses.
The project will focus on understanding the small ribonucleic acid (RNA)
pathways involved in anther development and crop development when plants
are challenged by adverse environmental conditions. Small RNAs are tiny
messengers that carry genetic information inside living cells, in this
case anthers--the site of pollen development in plants.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, grains such as wheat,
corn and rice grown in the United States account for roughly 25 percent
of all grains worldwide. Changes to climate, including the frequency and
intensity of extreme weather, are expected to impact crop yields at a
time when the planet's population -- and the demand for food -- is rising...
- - - -
Caplan and his collaborators will investigate the life cycle and
functions of a class of RNAs that support anther development in grass
flowers, which are flowers that are pollinated by wind, eliminating the
need for eye-catching petals to attract insects. Anthers are critical in
the reproduction of flowering plants because they are the site of pollen
development and contain the sperm cells necessary for reproduction. In
corn, also known as maize, anthers are located on the whispy tassels
found at the top of the cornstalk. Prior research has demonstrated that
anther development will often stall or fail under high temperatures,
leaving the plants sterile or with reduced fertility, thus decreasing
the harvest.
- - - - -
The research project will also include training of students in plant and
computational biology via continued integration with long-running and
successful undergraduate and high school internship programs.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/uod-fsu100418.php
[How is post-collapse possible?]
*Apocalypse? Now? How to face up to climate reality
<https://www.culture-crisis.net/blog-denial.html>*
School of Philosophy and Art History, University of Essex
28th November 2018
Midwives of Imagination: on the other side of collapse
The real terror of the social and cultural collapse of our civilisation
brings with it anxiety that is very hard to bear, hence the silence of
denial around climate change. Even some climate scientists have colluded
in a 'socially constructed silence'. Psychological defences such as
denial and disavowal play a huge part in this socially constructed
silence. Precedence for such social denial includes the holocaust and
sexual abuse.
Much of the psychology of climate has focused on what can be seen as a
hospice approach that attends to the horror and grief of what is being
lost in the sixth great extinction on our planet and in terms of human
culture such as traditions, rituals, languages and skills that are being
lost, possibly forever. That the commodifying beast of neoliberal
capitalism bears a huge responsibility for this extinction brings it
back home to us who are complicit in it. Attempting to face into it can
lead to depression, despair and suicide.
A necessary complement to this harrowing work is to become a midwife of
the unknown. What is on the other side of collapse? Rather like in
midlife when the ego takes its immanent demise literally and fears
extinction, we need to de-literalise our fantasies of collapse. This is
not a matter of escapist hope or positive thinking that act as another
means of disavowal. It is a matter of freeing ourselves from the tame
domestication of our thinking and catching the sparks of imagination.
This short talk will focus on one aspect of this midwifery - developing
a playful, carnival attitude. David Fleming in Surviving the Future
(2016) has pointed out that carnival has traditionally provided
communities with a radical break from what we could call malignant
normality - a collective catharsis of satire and feral challenge that
fires up the imagination.
Chris Robertson has been a psychotherapist and trainer since 1978. He
studied meditation in India, humanistic group work, child psychotherapy,
psychosynthesis and family therapy. He co-founded Re-Vision in 1988 from
which he is now retired. Since 2108, he is the chair of the Climate
Psychology Alliance. He is co-editor of the anthology Transformation in
Troubled Times (Transpersonal Press 2018); the Psychotherapist (2016:
63) on Climate Change, Despair and Radical Hope; and contributed the
chapter 'Dangerous Margins' to the anthology Vital Signs (Karnac, 2012).
Further details at: www.culture-crisis.net.
https://www.culture-crisis.net/blog-denial.html
[religion opinion from the National Catholic Reporter]
*At Season of Creation's end, know this: Climate change is here
<https://www.ncronline.org/news/environment/eco-catholic/season-creations-end-know-climate-change-here-now>*
<https://www.ncronline.org/news/environment/eco-catholic/season-creations-end-know-climate-change-here-now>Oct
4, 2018
by James Hug
- - - - -
As the liturgical Season of Creation for 2018 draws to a close, the
serious need for prayer, study and widespread action in response to the
destructive threats of climate change has never before seemed so urgent.
- - - -
This year, for the first time I can recall, scientists are warning
explicitly that climate change is not a future danger we need to try to
prevent. Climate change is here now and will continue to worsen. It is
the new normal.
- - - -
Climate change is here, now, and is still worsening. Its threats to life
as we know it are coming into clearer and more frightening view.
Is Earth trying to teach us in its own way what Jesus tried to teach his
apostles when he told them: "I will be handed over to people who will
kill me"?
This prediction of his Passion was central in the Gospels of both the
third and fourth Sundays of the Season of Creation this year. Jesus
promised to rise three days after his death. Still, the Twelve, led by
Peter, assumed that as God's special anointed one, Jesus would be
protected and would emerge from conflicts with the Jewish leaders and
the Roman occupiers as victor and savior. They couldn't understand what
he was trying to tell them, but they were afraid to ask.
Is the message from Earth to us this year a warning about its suffering
and dying? Is it a message we don't understand and are afraid to really
believe possible? Scientists are warning that we are already into the
sixth great mass extinction of life on Earth, the biggest since the
dinosaurs 66 million years ago, and the first one caused principally by
humans. From the evidence of the previous five extinctions etched in our
planetary archaeology, Earth's resurrection could surely take place, but
it would most likely take hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of years.
In his encyclical "Laudato Si, on Care for Our Common Home," Pope
Francis identified the global economy -- structured on competition that
drives consumption and requires constant economic growth on a planet
with limited resources -- as obviously destructive for the planet's
ecology, including the human community. The human community must stop
assuming that we live on a planet with limitless resources.
On Aug. 1, less than two months ago, I wrote about Earth Overshoot Day,
highlighting the fact that the human community had consumed in just
seven months the renewable resources that it will take the planet a full
year to replenish. And Earth Overshoot Day is coming earlier every year.
It is impossible for this dynamic to continue.
Those economic patterns are also the drivers of growing inequality
around the planet that promises increasing social crises and conflict.
When the average worker for a major U.S. corporation makes about $28,000
a year while its CEO makes $28,000 every nine seconds, social crisis
seems inevitable. While that is an extreme example, the competitive
structures of the global economy are driving global inequality, leaving
more and more people in desperate need of resources on this limited
planet and aggravating what Pope Francis has described as one complex
and interrelated global economic, ecological and social crisis.
It is abundantly clear: Climate change is here.
Its devastating threats are more and more apparent. It is being driven
by some of the most basic social and economic systems by which we are
living on Earth today. And it is perhaps progressing much more quickly
than our analytic models have predicted.
Though the 2018 liturgical Season of Creation comes to a close Oct, 4,
it is urgent that communities of faith around the planet carry forward
the revelation, inspiration, growth in spiritual energies and global
collaboration that the season has nurtured in a renewed commitment. It
is essential that the human family reverse the dynamics driving climate
change, ecological depletion, injustice and violent conflict as people
struggle to survive. We must move into our immediate future deepened and
transformed.
What might that look like? Reflecting on the Sunday liturgical texts
from this year's Season of Creation, I might sum it up in this way:
Ongoing contemplation of the beauty and wonder of creation must continue
to feed our appreciation, gratitude, love of and passion to take care of
the planet on which we are blessed to live. We take care of what we come
to appreciate, are grateful for and love.
Remembering that God did not spare Jesus from the terrible rejection,
suffering and death that the religious leaders of his people condemned
him to, we need to take with utmost seriousness the threats from the
ecological and social crisis we are caught up in. In the words of Jesus,
it is "thinking not as God does but as humans do" (Mark 8:33, the Gospel
reading for the third Sunday of the Season of Creation 2018) to expect
that God would somehow come in to save creation from the natural effects
of our destructive activities.
We need to pray for ever-deepening trust that the awesome God behind and
throughout the cosmos is accompanying us with love through all that may
lie ahead -- as God was faithful to Jesus through his suffering and
death -- holding before us the promise of resurrection.
Then we need to take up with renewed energy the call to be prophets to
our time, calling everyone we can touch through word and living example
into new ways of living together as one human family within the Earth
community, working to evolve together the next emerging stage of the New
Creation.
[Jesuit Fr. James E. Hug serves as sacramental minister for the Adrian
Dominican Sisters and writes on spirituality for social transformation.
His blog, "Truth that does Justice," can be found on the website for the
Dominican Center: Spirituality for Mission
<http://www.dominicancenter.org/>.]
https://www.ncronline.org/news/environment/eco-catholic/season-creations-end-know-climate-change-here-now
[what if]
*Leadership Beyond Denial of Our Climate Tragedy
<http://iflas.blogspot.com/2018/10/leadership-beyond-denial-of-our-climate.html>*
Transcript of a talk given at the Poetics of Leadership conference,
University of Cumbria, Ambleside Campus, 7th September 2018, by
Professor Jem Bendell, co-chair of the conference. Based on the
conference paper "From Denial to Deep Adaptation: Seeking Leadership
Amidst Climate Tragedy."
"The topic that we will explore in this session is in the ether of our
conference. Which may reflect how the topic is increasingly in the minds
of some people in recent years, particularly in the environmental
movement. It doesn't feel right to me given the serious nature of the
topic to just present a summary of my paper. We can't avoid the
emotional impact of this topic. And shouldn't try to. Although my
attempt to develop a "deep adaptation" concept was partly to take some
of the sting out of things by inviting reflection within a framework,
perhaps a life-raft for despair, I don't see there is any way to just
jump into this as a technical or philosophical discussion.
Because it is such an important topic, connected to the most important
questions of existence, and an emotional journey for me, I want to be
more precise than I am usually. Therefore, I will abandon a habit of a
few years, and actually read my talk.
What I want to do in this session is to invite you to consider simply:
"What If?"
"What if it is too late to avert a catastrophe in our own societies
within our lifetimes, due to the impacts of climate change, particularly
on agriculture. What might that mean for my life and work?" ...
http://iflas.blogspot.com/2018/10/leadership-beyond-denial-of-our-climate.html
---
[Jem Bendell paper that started this conversation]
*New Paper on Deep Adaptation to Climate Chaos
<http://iflas.blogspot.com/2018/07/new-paper-on-deep-adaptation-to-climate.html>*
July 25, 2018
Today IFLAS releases its 2nd Occasional Paper on themes of leadership
and sustainability. "Deep Adaptation: A map for navigating the climate
tragedy" addresses in depth some implications of the most recent climate
measurements and science.
Sadly, the analysis leads the author to conclude that climate-induced
collapse is now inevitable. Professor Bendell studied climate science as
part of his degree at the University of Cambridge in the 1990s, and only
returned to the primary studies this year after seeing the increasingly
worrying news about current changes to our atmosphere and its impacts on
our ecosystems at sea and on land. "For the past decades I had relied on
the assessments and guidance from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change - which was worrying enough" said Bendell, a full Professor of
Sustainability Leadership. "But the measured changes in our current
environment have outpaced even the worst predictions of the IPCC over
the past decades. The leading climate scientists are reporting a much
worse situation than the IPCC." The paper looks at peer reviewed
journals and supplements that with the latest data direct from research
institutes on climate. "The whole field of sustainable development
research, policy and education, and sustainable business in particular,
is based on the view that we can halt climate change and avert
catastrophe" explains Bendell. "By returning to the science, I
discovered that view is no longer tenable. I then explored why people
who work in this field, whether as researcher, activists or policy
makers, may have been ignoring this difficult truth. It is
understandable - none of us want to suffer, none of us want to think
years of work has been futile, and none of us want to be admonished by
colleagues or ridiculed online."...
- - - -
The paper "Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy" is
downloadable as a pdf from here
<http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf>.
http://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf
- - - -
http://iflas.blogspot.com/2018/07/new-paper-on-deep-adaptation-to-climate.html
*This Day in Climate History - October 6, 2014
<http://www.msnbc.com/now/watch/kentucky--ground-zero-for-war-on-coal-338770499970#>
- from D.R. Tucker*
October 6, 2014: MSNBC's Chris Hayes airs the first part of a series on
the politics of coal in the US.
http://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/the-war-on-the-war-on-coal-338458691505#
http://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/united-mine-workers-prez-and-chris-hayes-spar-338418755664#
http://www.msnbc.com/now/watch/kentucky--ground-zero-for-war-on-coal-338770499970#
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