[TheClimate.Vote] September 29, 2018 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Sep 29 11:38:48 EDT 2018
/September 29, 2018/
[most important]
*Trump administration sees a 7-degree rise in global temperatures by
2100
<https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ff0a02c21d86>*
By Juliet Eilperin, Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney
September 28 at 3:55 PM
Last month, deep in a 500-page environmental impact statement, the Trump
administration made a startling assumption: On its current course, the
planet will warm a disastrous seven degrees by the end of this century.
A rise of seven degrees Fahrenheit, or about four degrees Celsius,
compared with preindustrial levels would be catastrophic, according to
scientists. Many coral reefs would dissolve in increasingly acidic
oceans. Parts of Manhattan and Miami would be underwater without costly
coastal defenses. Extreme heat waves would routinely smother large parts
of the globe.
- - - - -
"The amazing thing they're saying is human activities are going to lead
to this rise of carbon dioxide that is disastrous for the environment
and society. And then they're saying they're not going to do anything
about it," said Michael MacCracken, who served as a senior scientist at
the U.S. Global Change Research Program from 1993 to 2002....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ff0a02c21d86
- - - -
[classic video on 6 degrees.. told in just 1:11]
*6 Degrees Warmer: Mass Extinction? | National Geographic
<https://youtu.be/O8qmaAMK4cM>*
National Geographic
Published on Feb 1, 2008
If the world warms by six degrees, oceans will turn into marine
wastelands and natural disasters become common events.
https://youtu.be/O8qmaAMK4cM
- - - - -
[Classic book of scenarios for each degree of warming only goes to 6]
*Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet Hardcover - January 22, 2008
<https://www.amazon.com/Six-Degrees-Future-Hotter-Planet/dp/142620213X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1>*
Six degrees
The end-Permian mass extinction of 251 million years ago was
associated with six degrees of warming, and wiped out 90% of life on
Earth. Huge firestorms sweep the planet as methane hydrate fireballs
ignite. Seas turn anoxic and release poisonous hydrogen sulphide.
Humanity's very survival as a species in question.
Notes from Mark Lynas author of Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet
https://www.amazon.com/Six-Degrees-Future-Hotter-Planet/dp/142620213X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1
[Canadian view on costs]
*Destructive weather prompting corporate rethink on ignoring costs of
climate change
<https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/climate-change-costs-1.4833281>*
'We ... need to think about how to build resilience,' economist says
Pete Evans - CBC News
Many in Canada's business community are waking up to the realities of
climate change because they are bearing the brunt of paying for it --
and starting to plan accordingly...
- - - -
Mitigating the impact of natural disasters is often painted as a cost of
doing business. But Atif Kubursi, professor emeritus of economics at
McMaster University in Hamilton, says the investment community is slowly
starting to find a balance between the cost of action and the
opportunity cost of inaction.
"We tend to present the environment as a major cost, and we have to do
it for future generations," he says. "But you can't sell it this way."...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/climate-change-costs-1.4833281
[WildFires]
*Firefighters Cope As Climate Change Radically Changes Their Jobs
<https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wildfires-climate-change-california_us_5b8fedd2e4b0511db3de3d4b>*
"We are not first responders anymore. We are extended responders."
By Chris D'Angelo - 09/12/2018
- - - -
This spike in activity has stretched firefighting resources thin and
brought increased health and safety risks to an inherently dangerous job.
"We are not first responders anymore," Michael Mohler, deputy director
of Cal Fire, told HuffPost. "We are extended responders."...
- - - -
Firefighters battling the Pawnee fire noted how unusual it was to see a
wind-driven blaze of that magnitude so early in the summer, taking it as
a troubling sign that California was in for another busy, and likely
deadly, fire season.
"Where are we going to be in July and August?" Albright wondered,
standing among freshly charred trees and brush...
- - - -
"It is clear to me that firefighters are on the frontlines of climate
change," he said
A state climate assessment released last month estimates that the amount
of land that burns annually in California will increase 77 percent by 2100.
As fires grow in size, speed and intensity, fighting flames can become
all but impossible. Expecting firefighters to extinguish some of these
megafires is no different than expecting someone to stop a powerful
hurricane, Mohler said...
- - - -
Mark Brunton, a battalion chief at Cal Fire, said the last five years
have been the "busiest, most complex" of his 31-year career. It's not
uncommon for men and women to be dispatched for a month at a time. His
record is 62 days straight. It wasn't long ago that it was frowned upon
to use vacation days during peak fire season. "Now," Brunton said,
"people take it off for sanity reasons."
"The environmental factors wear on you. The stress wears on you. The
sleep deprivation wears on you. All those things wear on you," he said.
"And when that's constant, it's cumulative."
In mid-August, after two weeks of fighting the Mendocino Complex,
Albright returned home to southern California, exhausted and covered in
poison oak.
"You go home a little more broken than when you come," he said. "You
definitely leave some of yourself up here when you're working."...
- - - -
"This is an extremely dangerous profession, and mother nature can be
very cruel," he said.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/wildfires-climate-change-california_us_5b8fedd2e4b0511db3de3d4b
- -- - -
[rarely do firefighters speak up about global warming conditions- video
interview]
*Facing Reality: Firefighters on the Climate Frontlines
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hqTXVRaIEs>*
August 29, 2018
(47:00 video with transcript available)
"Well what's happening is we're getting weather events that are more
extreme right here
in Southern California.
Last December during the Thomas fire we're what we call a red flag
warning for low
humidities and high winds it lasted for 13 straight days -- that's
unheard of to
have those kinds of conditions for that length of time. It's happening
more and
more our fires are spreading at rates that unlike they've ever spread.
Firefighters can't get out in front of these fires now and stop them
when they're burning in those conditions.
they're having to back up and find other places to control them at ridge
tops...
*We've been studying this and we've consulted the scientists and we've
decided as a group...we're going to be first responders to global warming*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hqTXVRaIEs
[Climate liability]
*Courts Will Play Key Role in Addressing Climate Crisis, Experts Say
<https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/09/27/climate-crisis-litigation-columbia/>*
By Dana Drugmand
A worldwide movement seeking relief and accountability for the impacts
of human-driven climate change through the courts has taken flight over
the past year, and while none of the experts who spoke about the issue
on on two panels in New York City said it would solve the climate crisis
on its own, they agreed it will play an important rule .
Two events in the lineup of Climate Week NYC demonstrated the diversity
of the climate liability movement, from lawsuits against national
governments and fossil fuel corporations to investigations of companies
for human rights violations and for misleading shareholders on climate
risks. These kinds of approaches are underway at the municipal, state,
national and international levels...
- -- -
Knowingly selling a harmful product while publicly denying or
downplaying the risk, as fossil fuel companies have allegedly done, is
the kind of corporate wrongdoing that spurred successful litigation
against the tobacco industry and lead paint manufacturers. Whitehouse
drew the comparison to the tobacco lawsuits in suggesting the
possibility of using the federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt
Organizations (RICO) law against fossil fuel companies. He said the
discovery phase of the tobacco litigation exposed deliberate deceit on
the part of Big Tobacco, and that Big Oil may fear a similar fate.
"While liability is a concern for the fossil fuel industry, in my view
discovery is a more immediate and perhaps more terrifying concern for
the industry," said Whitehouse, who was Rhode Island's attorney general
during the tobacco litigation. "They have worked so hard, including
ExxonMobil now going to the Supreme Court to stop Attorney General
Healey's discovery from going forward, and I think they're looking at
the lessons from the tobacco industry."
This threat of discovery has prompted a counterattack from Exxon and its
industry allies. Sher referenced an aggressive communications campaign
and a petition in a Texas court claiming the climate lawsuits are part
of a big green conspiracy. "Part of what's going on here is the nature
of the beast. If you start poking the tiger, you draw a response," he said.
The set of California cases that Sher is advising is currently before
the Ninth Circuit Court as the fossil fuel companies challenge District
Judge Vince Chhabria's decision to remand the suits back to state court.
Sher told Climate Liability News he is confident the cases will proceed
in state court, where legal experts believe plaintiffs will have a
better shot at succeeding...
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2018/09/27/climate-crisis-litigation-columbia/
[Why not convert them to public utilities?]
*Storm Warning for the Fossil-Fuel Industry
<https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fossil-fuel-industry-political-risks-by-daniel-litvin-2018-09>*
Sep 26, 2018 DANIEL LITVIN
A spate of extreme weather events this year will no doubt intensify the
political pressure on fossil-fuel firms in the coming years. How oil and
gas companies manage their growing political challenges will be just as
important for their valuation as their day-to-day operations are now...
- - - -
That backlash could come in a variety of forms. Divestment campaigns are
likely to gain steam and attract larger shareholders. Climate-related
lawsuits could begin to extend further beyond the US, ultimately leading
to multi-billion-dollar damage awards, as in the cases against Big
Tobacco. Protest movements to disrupt on-shore operations could become
routine. And governments could decide to impose moratoriums on new
hydrocarbon development, or to levy punitive taxes on fossil-fuel firms.
In fact, the government of New Zealand recently banned all future
offshore oil and gas exploration - a move that other countries
ultimately may follow.
Why should anyone shed tears for Big Oil and its investors? After all,
many of the political pressures described here are helpful for tackling
climate change, which requires reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and
accelerating the shift to renewable energies.
Still, an unthinking backlash against fossil-fuel firms could also have
some perverse effects. Politicians may use it to deflect attention from
the slow pace of national energy policy reform. In most countries, such
reform is urgently needed to meet climate targets. Also, even in a
scenario in which the average global temperature increase is kept within
2Celsius of pre-industrial levels (the upper limit under the 2015 Paris
climate agreement), fossil fuels will still need to be produced. Like a
giant supertanker, the global energy system cannot be turned around on a
dime. The shift away from fossil fuels will take many years, during
which oil, gas, and coal will remain in demand.
In light of these realities, one risk of the intensified political
backlash against fossil-fuel firms is that the industry could be pushed
into the shadows. Instead of shrinking in size or focusing on a
transition to renewables, the industry might shift production to private
rather than publicly listed firms. Or production could migrate to less
transparent firms in non-OECD countries.
In either case, these corporate entities will be less susceptible to
pressure from progressive activists and socially focused investors. Less
scrupulous producers will be happy to keep exploring and extracting with
abandon, because they will feel even less obliged than the distrusted
bosses of Big Oil and Big Coal to demonstrate that they are helping to
reduce GHG emissions. As the movement to tackle climate change continues
to shape its strategy for the years ahead, this is one risk that it must
keep in mind.
Daniel Litvin
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fossil-fuel-industry-political-risks-by-daniel-litvin-2018-09
[Insurance industry risk]
*Businesses Should Prepare for Consequences of Climate Change, Zurich
Says <https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/09/27/502707.htm>*
By Don Jergler | September 27, 2018
The report, "Managing the impacts of climate change: risk management
responses," was published at the start of Climate Week NYC, a gathering
of investors and public and private leaders in New York that wraps up
this weekend.
The New York event had several authoritative reports and surveys timed
to be released during or around the event.
One such report out this week came from the Task Force on
Climate-related Financial Disclosures in its 2018 Status Report to the
Financial Stability Board. That report shows climate-related disclosure
is becoming mainstream as more firms align their financial reporting to
recommendations by a global task force, although few disclose the
financial impact on the company...
- - - -
"Ultimately these things end up in insurance coverages," she added.
The report details three steps businesses can follow to develop a
climate resilience adaptation strategy:
Identify the broad business and strategic risks;
Develop a granular view of the risks including individual locations;
Develop a mitigation strategy involving insurance and resilience, as
well as strategic implications for business models.
"We don't just want to insure people against an event happening, we want
to make sure whatever the impacts of that event are, it's less than it
would have been," Martin said...
- - - - -
"The opportunity lies in the scalability of low-carbon solutions,
including clean energy and mitigation technologies that can accelerate
this growing market and support the transition of the global energy
sector," the report states. "Simultaneously, this transition will
require significant capital to change a society that has been dependent
on a fossil fuel-based energy system."
The report draws on information from a 2017 report by the International
Finance Corporation that asserts that climate change could create
investment opportunities amounting to $23 trillion by 2030 in emerging
markets alone.
Martin said the opportunity for the insurance industry is to help guide
businesses through these transitions and to help them asses their risks,
all while being an expert voice on risk management and insurance that
companies can lean on.
"Climate change is one of the most complex, interconnected risks that
the world faces," Martin said.
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/09/27/502707.htm
*This Day in Climate History - September 29, 2000
<http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/EnergyIssues3> - from D.R. Tucker*
September 29, 2000: In an apparent effort to convince moderate voters
not to support Democratic opponent Al Gore, GOP presidential candidate
George W. Bush delivers an energy speech implying that he will pursue
efforts to reduce carbon pollution as president. Bush would go on to
abandon this implied promise during his tenure in the White House.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/EnergyIssues3
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