[TheClimate.Vote] April 2, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/April 2, 2019/


[NOAA Flood forecast 2 minute video]
*NOAA's spring 2019 flood and climate outlook for the United States*
NOAAClimate
Published on Mar 21, 2019
Following a wet winter, many parts of the United States are at risk of 
at least minor flooding this spring. In this video, the Climate 
Prediction Center's Mike Halpert explains what's behind NOAA's 
temperature, precipitation, and flood outlooks for spring 2019. For maps 
and more discussion, visit https://www.climate.gov/spring2019.
Video produced by the Climate.gov team in cooperation with climate 
scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 
Unless specifically stated otherwise, Climate.gov video productions can 
be freely republished or re-purposed by others.
https://youtu.be/_7nXBtnAQl0


[Bugs going away]
*Insects have 'no place to hide' from climate change, study warns*
Analysis of 50 years of UK data shows woodlands are not havens, while 
changing emergence times damage nature and farming
Damian Carrington - Environment editor - April 1, 2019
Insects have "no place to hide" from climate change, scientists have 
said after analysing 50 years' worth of UK data.

The study found that woodlands, whose shade was expected to protect 
species from warming temperatures, are just as affected by climate 
change as open grasslands.

The research examined records of the first springtime flights of 
butterflies, moths and aphids and the first eggs of birds between 1965 
and 2012. As average temperatures have risen, aphids are now emerging a 
month earlier, and birds are laying eggs a week earlier. The scientists 
said this could mean animals were becoming "out of sync" with their 
prey, with potentially serious ramifications for ecosystems.
Researchers are increasingly concerned about dramatic drops in 
populations of insects, which underpin much of nature. In February it 
was said that these falls could lead to a "catastrophic collapse of 
nature's ecosystems", and in March there was further evidence of 
widespread loss of pollinating insects in recent decades in Britain.

Other studies, from Germany and Puerto Rico, have shown falling numbers 
in the last 25 to 35 years. Another showed butterflies in the 
Netherlands had declined by at least 84% over the last 130 years.

James Bell, at Rothamsted Research institute, who led the woodlands 
research, said: "Under global warming you would expect woodlands to have 
some protection for insects, a buffer against change. But we didn't see 
that. It is the major surprise and is disturbing. There is really no 
place to hide against the effects of global warming if you are an insect 
in the UK."

Another surprise was that insects and birds living in farmland are 
emerging later in the spring, not earlier as expected. "We can only 
assume this is to do with other, non-climate factors," Bell said. The 
loss of wild areas and changing crop types could be among the factors, 
he said, along with declining food availability leading to delayed breeding.

James Pearce-Higgins, of the British Trust for Ornithology, said: "Birds 
are at the top of many food chains and are sensitive to the impacts of 
climate change on the availability of their insect prey."
A separate new study found that populations of birds that rely on 
insects for food fell by 13% across Europe between 1990 and 2015, and by 
28% in Denmark, which the scientists used as a national case study. The 
omnivorous birds assessed did not show a decline.

The UK research, published in the journal Global Change Biology, found 
that the shift to earlier emergence or egg-laying varied considerably 
according to the type of habitat and how far north the species lives. 
Aphids breed very rapidly and can adapt to changing temperatures 
quickly. Their first flight is now an average of 30 days earlier than 50 
years ago. Birds, butterflies and moths are appearing one to two weeks 
earlier.

Bell said the changing timings were affecting farming, with aphids 
arriving earlier but potato crops being planted later due to wetter 
winters. This combination meant the aphids, which transmit viruses, were 
attacking much younger plants. "Plants are just like babies, with very 
poorly developed immune systems, so when a virus is transmitted into a 
young potato plant it has a much greater effect," he said.

Jon Pickup, of the Science and Advice for Scottish Agriculture division 
of the Scottish government, said: "As pests, it remains a concern that 
aphid migrations are getting earlier at a dramatic rate and this piece 
of work shows us that signal across the UK very clearly."

Bell said timing mismatches were also affecting wildlife. "For example, 
the leafing date of the oak tree determines when the caterpillars will 
appear, and that determines when blue tits that feed on caterpillars lay 
their first egg," he said. "If they become desynchronised, it has 
cascading effects through the food chain, leading to fewer eggs, and 
this has been seen."

During February's exceptionally warm weather there were sightings of 
rooks nesting, ladybirds mating and dozens of migratory swallows 
arriving along the south-west coast, all more than a month ahead of 
schedule.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/01/insects-have-no-place-to-hide-from-climate-change-study-warns
- -
[Ongoing news event...]
*Plummeting insect numbers 'threaten collapse of nature'*
Exclusive: Insects could vanish within a century at current rate of 
decline, says global review
Why are insects in decline, and can we do anything about it?

The world's insects are hurtling down the path to extinction, 
threatening a "catastrophic collapse of nature's ecosystems", according 
to the first global scientific review.

More than 40% of insect species are declining and a third are 
endangered, the analysis found. The rate of extinction is eight times 
faster than that of mammals, birds and reptiles. The total mass of 
insects is falling by a precipitous 2.5% a year, according to the best 
data available, suggesting they could vanish within a century...
- -
"The main cause of the decline is agricultural intensification," 
Sanchez-Bayo  said. "That means the elimination of all trees and shrubs 
that normally surround the fields, so there are plain, bare fields that 
are treated with synthetic fertilisers and pesticides." He said the 
demise of insects appears to have started at the dawn of the 20th 
century, accelerated during the 1950s and 1960s and reached "alarming 
proportions" over the last two decades.

He thinks new classes of insecticides introduced in the last 20 years, 
including neonicotinoids and fipronil, have been particularly damaging 
as they are used routinely and persist in the environment: "They 
sterilise the soil, killing all the grubs." This has effects even in 
nature reserves nearby; the 75% insect losses recorded in Germany were 
in protected areas...
- - -
Prof Paul Ehrlich, at Stanford University in the US, has seen insects 
vanish first-hand, through his work on checkerspot butterflies on 
Stanford's Jasper Ridge reserve. He first studied them in 1960 but they 
had all gone by 2000, largely due to climate change.

Ehrlich praised the review, saying: "It is extraordinary to have gone 
through all those studies and analysed them as well as they have." He 
said the particularly large declines in aquatic insects were striking. 
"But they don't mention that it is human overpopulation and 
overconsumption that is driving all the things [eradicating insects], 
including climate change," he said.

Sanchez-Bayo said he had recently witnessed an insect crash himself. A 
recent family holiday involved a 400-mile (700km) drive across rural 
Australia, but he had not once had to clean the windscreen, he said. 
"Years ago you had to do this constantly."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/10/plummeting-insect-numbers-threaten-collapse-of-nature



[Rebel for Life]
*'Heading for Extinction' - Oxford Extinction Rebellion talk with George 
Monbiot and friends.*
ExtinctionRebellion - Published on Mar 28, 2019
The 10 Working Principles of Extinction Rebellion
https://Rebellion.Earth/who-we-are/#p...
1.   We have a shared vision of change
2.   We set our mission on what is necessary
3.   We need a re-generative culture
4.   We hopefully challenge ourselves, and this toxic system
5.   We value reflection and learning
6.   We welcome everyone, and every part of everyone into Extinction 
Rebellion
7.   We actively mitigate for power
8.   We avoid blaming and shaming
9.   We are a non-violent movement
10. We are based on autonomy and de-centralization
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n__y1FXK_jE



[Global Warming in videos and movies]
*The Climate Cinema Channel*
This channel is a supplementary channel to the website "The Climate 
Cinema" - http://theclimatecinema.org and the sister website "Saving Our 
Planet" - http://savingourplanet.net.
In The Climate Cinema Channel, we will gather a fine selection of the 
best and most relevant playlists about and relevant to climate change 
from other Youtube channels.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEiUcjp9n5prbFSQnR8_Asw/playlists
http://theclimatecinema.org/



[$3 a barrel]
*Aramco's Big Reveal: What We Learned About the Saudi Oil Giant*
By Mohammed Sergie - April 1, 2019
It was always suspected, and now it's official. Saudi Aramco is the 
world's most profitable company.

Jealously guarded financial data about the kingdom's prized asset were 
disclosed to bond investors for the first time on Monday. Aramco's 
$111.1 billion profit in 2018 easily dwarfed all other businesses on the 
planet, a stunning result for a company that also paid the Saudi 
government $102 billion in taxes last year...
- - -
*1- Aramco leads all companies, oil and otherwise*
Profit King
Saudi Aramco's profit = Apple + Google + Exxon Mobil...
- -
*2- It still lags other oil majors in profit per barrel*
Aramco, which produces about 10 percent of the world's crude, spends 
just under $3 a barrel to pump its crude but doesn't generate as much 
cash per barrel as other top oil companies. The culprit: high taxes...
- -
*3- All that income still doesn't support a $2 trillion valuation*
Saudi Arabia has long insisted that Aramco would fetch the lofty 
valuation, even after some investors made it clear in the early stages 
of the mooted initial public offering that they didn't share that view. 
The $58.2 billion in dividends paid to the Saudi government last year 
indicates the company is worth closer to $1.2 trillion if it's judged by 
the same metrics as other oil majors...
- -
*4- Aramco can easily digest a $69 billion acquisition*
The state-owned producer, officially known as Saudi Arabian Oil Co., is 
selling a bond to help buy a 70 percent stake in chemical maker Saudi 
Basic Industries Corp. from the kingdom's sovereign wealth fund. Aramco 
will mostly use its own cash for the deal, with half of the payment due 
to the Public Investment Fund when it closes and the rest staggered 
until 2021. The installment plan will cost Aramco $500 million in 
interest (ultimately payable to its shareholder, the Saudi Arabian 
government)...
- -
*5- Investors are hungry for Aramco bonds*
"This launch has been eagerly awaited for some time and strong demand 
has already preceded it," said Richard Segal, a senior emerging-markets 
analyst at Manulife Asset Management in London. Aramco may end up paying 
a small premium to the kingdom's bonds. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia's 
sovereign-debt yields have declined this year, making it cheaper for 
Aramco to borrow. Brent crude has also advanced 28 percent...
- -
*6- Aramco has little debt, but its credit isn't stellar*
Saudi Aramco was assigned the fifth-highest investment grade rating at 
both Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Both firms said Aramco 
could have ranked even higher but was constrained by Saudi Arabia's 
sovereign rating. Even though Aramco lags peers like Shell, Total and 
Exxon Mobil Corp. in credit rating, its proposed acquisition of Sabic 
won't alter its current ranking thanks to its low debt load...
- - -
*7- Aramco faces risks, including missiles and hackers*
The bond prospectus detailed risks for investors, including missiles 
falling on Aramco's installations, the impact of proposed U.S. antitrust 
laws on OPEC, the fight against climate change, and even fears that 
Saudi Arabia may break the peg between its currency and the U.S dollar. 
It also revealed Aramco was the victim of "successful" cyber attacks. 
The prospectus showed how reliant Aramco is on high prices. In 2016, 
when Brent crude plunged to an average $45 a barrel and OPEC cut 
production, the company struggled to break even...
- -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-01/aramco-s-big-reveal-what-we-learned-about-the-saudi-oil-giant


[we're going to need more citronella]
*Global warming may expose one billion people to dengue studies show*
Sieeka KhanMar 31, 2019
Global warming could expose as many as one billion people to 
mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue and Zika by 2080, according to a 
study that examined temperature changes on a monthly basis across the 
world.

The news is bad even in areas with only a slight risk of having a 
climate suited for mosquitoes because the viruses they carry are 
notorious for explosive outbreaks when they show up at the right place 
under the right conditions, according to the study published in the 
journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. ..
- -
According to the World Health Organization, mosquitoes are one of the 
deadliest animals in the world, carrying diseases that cause millions of 
deaths every year. Both Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus can carry the 
dengue , chikunguyna and Zika viruses, as well as at least a dozen other 
emerging diseases that researchers say could be a threat in the next 50 
years. ...
- -
With global warming, the researchers say almost all of the world's 
population could be exposed at some point in the next 50 years. As the 
temperature increases, they expect year-round transmissions in the 
tropics and seasonal risks almost everywhere else. A greater intensity 
of infections is also predicted.

"These diseases, which we think of as strictly tropical, have been 
showing up already in areas with suitable climates, such as Florida, 
because humans are very good at moving both bugs and their pathogens 
around the globe," said Ryan. More severe climate change would produce 
proportionally worse population exposures for the Aedes aegypti mosquito.

However, in areas with the worst climate increase, including west 
African and southeast Asia, serious reductions are expected for the 
Aedes albopictus mosquito, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west 
Africa. This mosquito carries dengue, chikunguyna and Zika.
https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/19457/20190331/dengue.htm



[mosquitoes maybe?]
*Canada warming up twice as fast as rest of the world, and it's 
'irreversible': report*
Canada is warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world and that 
warming is "effectively irreversible," a new scientific report from 
Environment and Climate Change Canada says.

Warming is happening even faster in winter, leaving southern Canadians 
with more winter rainfall and northern Canadians with melting permafrost 
and less sea ice.

The Arctic is hit the hardest, with estimates that it is warming three 
times as fast as the rest of the world, leaving the risk that by the 
middle of this century most marine regions in the Canadian North will be 
ice-free for at least a month at a time.
More than 40 scientists worked on the report and say if nothing is done 
to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions building in the atmosphere, 
Canadians will end up with 10 times as many deadly heat waves and twice 
as many extreme rainstorms.
Canada's Changing Climate Report, the first Canadian-specific modelling 
of climate change, is coming the same week the federal Liberals roll out 
the signature piece of their climate-change plan: the carbon tax.

Environment Minister Catherine McKenna says the era of polluting for 
free in Canada is over, decrying carbon-tax critics as climate-change 
deniers and skeptics.
https://globalnews.ca/news/5119325/canada-warming-rate-environment-canada/


*This Day in Climate History - April 2, 2002; 2007 - from D.R. Tucker*
*April 2, 2002: *The New York Times reports:

    "After a year of urging from energy industry lobbyists, the Bush
    administration is seeking the ouster of an American scientist who
    for nearly six years has directed an international panel of hundreds
    of experts assessing global warming, several government officials
    have said.

    "The specialist, Dr. Robert T. Watson, chief scientist of the World
    Bank, is highly regarded as an atmospheric chemist by many climate
    experts. He has held the unpaid position of chairman of the
    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change since the fall of 1996.
    Now his term is expiring and the State Department has chosen not to
    renominate him to head the panel, which is run under the auspices of
    the United Nations and the World Meteorological Organization.

    "Dr. Watson is an outspoken advocate of the idea that human actions
    -- mainly burning oil and coal -- are contributing to global warming
    and must be changed to avert environmental upheavals.

    "Last night, a State Department official said the administration was
    leaning toward endorsing a scientist from India, which along with
    other developing countries has been eager for a stronger role in the
    climate assessments.

    "But many influential climate experts say they have written to the
    department supporting Dr. Watson."

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/02/science/02CLIM.html
http://youtu.be/6NcSOUJUBfY

*April 2, 2007: *
The US Supreme Court rules 5-4 in Massachusetts v. EPA that the EPA has 
the authority to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant.
http://youtu.be/6NcSOUJUBfY
https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/549/497/
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/

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