[TheClimate.Vote] February 4, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/February 4, 2019/


[trending action]
*Port Cancels Coal Transfer Facility at Fraser Surrey Docks*
Project would have made BC a major gateway for US thermal coal.
- -
If built, the facility would have resulted in up to four million tonnes 
of thermal coal per year from Wyoming's Powder River Basin coming 
through Metro Vancouver via open-car rail, Ecojustice warned. An 
estimated seven million tonnes of carbon dioxide -- a leading greenhouse 
gas -- would have gone into the atmosphere annually, it added...
- -
Opposition to the project extended into the United States. Climate 
change activism straddled the border, and citizens in Bellingham and 
other cities had rallied against similar proposals for their ports. ..
https://thetyee.ca/News/2019/02/01/Coal-Transfer-Facility-Cancelled/


[define the premise]
*A syndemic or synergistic epidemic* is the aggregation of two or more 
concurrent or sequential epidemics or disease clusters in a population 
with biological interactions, which exacerbate the prognosis and burden 
of disease. The term was developed by Merrill Singer in the mid-1990s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syndemic
- - -
[from The Lancet ]
*The Global Syndemic of Obesity, Undernutrition, and Climate Change: The 
Lancet Commission report*
Published: January 27, 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32822-8

    Malnutrition in all its forms, including obesity, undernutrition,
    and other dietary risks, is the leading cause of poor health
    globally. In the near future, the health effects of climate change
    will considerably compound these health challenges. Climate change
    can be considered a pandemic because of its sweeping effects on the
    health of humans and the natural systems we depend on (ie, planetary
    health). These three pandemics--obesity, undernutrition, and climate
    change--represent The Global Syndemic that affects most people in
    every country and region worldwide. They constitute a syndemic, or
    synergy of epidemics, because they co-occur in time and place,
    interact with each other to produce complex sequelae, and share
    common underlying societal drivers. This Commission recommends
    comprehensive actions to address obesity within the context of The
    Global Syndemic, which represents the paramount health challenge for
    humans, the environment, and our planet in the 21st century.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32822-8/fulltext#seccestitle10
- - -
[defined by The Lancet]
*Syndemics*
Published: March 2, 2017
Executive Summary
A syndemics framework examines the health consequences of identifiable 
disease interactions and the social, environmental, or economic factors 
that promote such interaction and worsen disease. This Series introduces 
the syndemics approach, explains important contrasts with conventional 
approaches to public health and health-care delivery based on the 
concept of multimorbidity, and explores how syndemics can be used to 
tackle health inequities in a comprehensive manner.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)30402-6/fulltext#relAudio
- - -
[equity - egalitarianism]
*Syndemic vulnerability and the right to health*
... the combined syndemics/health and human rights approach advanced 
here can provide clinicians and other key stakeholders with concrete 
insights, tools, and strategies to tackle the health inequities that 
affect migrants and other vulnerable groups by: (1) mapping the effect 
of social, political, and structural determinants on health; (2) 
identifying opportunities for upstream intervention; and (3) working 
collaboratively to tackle the structures, institutions, and processes 
that cause and exacerbate health inequities. Undergirding this approach 
is an egalitarian interpretation of the right to health that differs 
from narrow legalistic and individual interpretations by insisting that 
all people are equal in worth and, as a result, equally deserving of 
protection from syndemic vulnerability.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)30261-1/fulltext


[Hat tip to Betty M]
*The Dragons of Inaction: Psychological Barriers That Limit Climate 
Change Mitigation and Adaptation*
Article (PDF Available) in American Psychologist 66(4):290-302 · May 2011
DOI: 10.1037/a0023566 · Source: PubMed
Robert Gifford - University of Victoria
*Abstract*

    Most people think climate change and sustainability are important
    problems, but too few global citizens engaged in
    high-greenhouse-gas-emitting behavior are engaged in enough
    mitigating behavior to stem the increasing flow of greenhouse gases
    and other environmental problems. Why is that? Structural barriers
    such as a climate-averse infrastructure are part of the answer, but
    psychological barriers also impede behavioral choices that would
    facilitate mitigation, adaptation, and environmental sustainability.
    Although many individuals are engaged in some ameliorative action,
    most could do more, but they are hindered by seven categories of
    psychological barriers, or "dragons of inaction": limited cognition
    about the problem, ideological worldviews that tend to preclude
    pro-environmental attitudes and behavior, comparisons with key other
    people, sunk costs and behavioral momentum, discredence toward
    experts and authorities, perceived risks of change, and positive but
    inadequate behavior change. Structural barriers must be removed
    wherever possible, but this is unlikely to be sufficient.
    Psychologists must work with other scientists, technical experts,
    and policymakers to help citizens overcome these psychological barriers.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254734365_The_Dragons_of_Inaction_Psychological_Barriers_That_Limit_Climate_Change_Mitigation_and_Adaptation


[The Guardian tells us]
*Climate change 2020: can the Democrats make it an election issue?*
Several hopefuls are embracing the effort for a Green New Deal – but 
success will require overcoming legislative hurdles
Carl Shoupe, a 71-year-old who lives in Benham, Kentucky, at the foot of 
the tallest mountain in the state, does not feel well served by America.

When he came back from Vietnam, he went to work in the coal mines. At 
22, he was nearly killed by a roof collapse.

He spent a year on his back in the hospital. When he was mobile again, 
he got a job with the United Mine Workers Union. But after 12 years his 
injuries flared up and he had to quit. Then Vietnam memories started 
coming back, and he took to alcohol and pills.

"I was a wasted man for several years," he recalled.

In September 2005, everything changed. He went to church and got sober. 
When his mind was clear, he didn't like what he saw.

"Man," he said, "I seen all this destruction the coal companies were 
doing, tearing the mountains down."

Since then, Shoupe has worked with Kentuckians for the Commonwealth, a 
grassroots environmental and social justice group that wants to do 
things like insulate old camp homes and use the energy savings to pay 
the costs. It is also looking to create jobs to replace those that left 
with the mining companies as coal use declined.

Such ideas could now form the backbone of a national strategy that more 
and more Democrats are supporting and which will also aim to help slow 
the pace of climate change: a Green New Deal.

The concept has the backing of the 2020 presidential contenders Cory 
Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren and the 
likely candidate Bernie Sanders. The New York representative Alexandria 
Ocasio-Cortez and Massachusetts senator Ed Markey will soon roll out a 
brief outline.

A Green New Deal will aim to spur jobs and tackle inequity. It will aim 
to help people of color and indigenous communities. And it will try to 
help places like Benham, Kentucky. But most importantly, people involved 
say, the document will push candidates for the White House to explain 
what they plan to do about climate change.

"Where 2020 contenders stand on this legislation will make it clear who 
is using the Green New Deal as a buzzword and who is serious about 
transforming our economy in line with what science and justice demand," 
said Varshini Prakash, founder of the Sunrise Movement, a youth climate 
advocacy group.

The concept is already entering the mainstream. Earlier this week, 
Harris declared her support, telling an Iowa town hall: "Climate change 
is an existential threat to us, and we have got to deal with the reality 
of it." The California senator also touted statistics projecting huge 
growth in wind and solar power jobs.

Behind the scenes, environmental groups, unions and climate justice 
advocates have been laying out their thoughts on what a Green New Deal 
should include.

*A challenge on Capitol Hill*
For people like Shoupe, it's hard to get excited just yet. They need 
help now, while climate scientists stress that the world is already off 
the pace, having failed to begin phasing out coal and petroleum and 
working to limit greenhouse gas emissions from industry, agriculture and 
land use.

Then there is the legislative challenge a Green New Deal would present, 
even if all the groups involved could agree on the best way forward. So 
far, organizations are aligning around general aspirations, people 
familiar with discussions said. As concrete policy is generated, that 
will become more difficult.

One conflict will come around whether a Green New Deal can include 
nuclear power, which is carbon-free but runs on mined uranium. Another 
will regard the use of carbon sequestration, a technology to collect and 
store emissions from power plants, thereby letting them keep running.

Basav Sen, who works with a national consortium of groups, the Climate 
Justice Alliance, is against the inclusion of nuclear and carbon 
sequestration.

"There can be disagreement about other things," he said, "[but] those 
are things there's no compromise on."

For Paul Getsos, national director of the Peoples Climate Movement, an 
umbrella group for community organizations and environmental justice and 
labor groups, the Green New Deal "has to be about reducing emissions" as 
well as building a more just economy.

Working with unions, meanwhile, could make it hard to set specific goals 
for phasing out fossil fuels, because organized labor represents people 
working in coal, oil and gas, steel and concrete: all sources of 
greenhouse gases.

The plan could also divide Democrats in Congress. Representative Jamie 
Raskin of Maryland has been calling for a "green deal" including a 
carbon fee and dividend.

"Enthusiasm on the Democratic side is overwhelming," he said, adding 
that he favored "a comprehensive deal that commits us to meet goals 
[with] some detailed policy commitments built into it".

But he acknowledged: "I know some members of the House have concerns 
about overly ambitious goals built into the Green New Deal, such as 
trying to wean us off fossil fuels in a decade."
One such member was John Delaney of Maryland, who left the House last 
month in order to run for president.

In January, he told the Guardian: "There's a way of doing something 
really big on climate change in my opinion: it involves putting a price 
on carbon … That's the best way to do it: it's a market-based solution. 
But suddenly some people are saying, 'No, no, that's not good enough, 
we've got to go further, we've got to basically ban carbon in 10 years.' 
Now, that's just not going to happen.

"I worry that they move the goalposts to a point where you can't get 
anything done and I think that plays into Trump's hands, actually."

Advocates insist nonetheless that they have an opportunity to overcome 
such obstacles. Ben Beachy, with the Sierra Club, said he has been happy 
"to see just how much alignment on the broad goals there has been".

Furthermore, for once, some say they might have an advantage in the 
messaging war.

Julian Brave NoiseCat, a policy analyst for the climate group 350.org 
and a Guardian contributor, said: "Climate change and climate policy has 
been framed through tradeoffs, scarcity and sacrifice for so long.

"But what's powerful about the Green New Deal is it frames it as: 'We 
can build and provide millions of jobs and do phenomenal things for 
everyday people through climate policy.'"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/feb/03/green-new-deal-climate-change-jobs-plan


[got a match?]
*The world's top cigarette company thinks a future of extreme weather 
could be good for its tobacco*
- -
There's also the benefit of higher global temperatures, which the 
company estimates could produce another $1 million per year in savings.
Before producing a cigarette, manufacturers must first dry out, or 
"cure," the tobacco leaves in heated barns, which use firewood to power 
the drying-out process. Philip Morris believes that warmer weather will 
produce natural heat that could reduce the need to burn firewood...
https://www.businessinsider.com/philip-morris-thinks-climate-change-is-good-for-tobacco-2019-1



[USA Today]
*Extreme weather is already dangerous to the vulnerable, but it will get 
worse for all of us*
Eric Klinenberg, Opinion contributor Published 5:00 a.m. ET Jan. 30, 
2019 - Updated 9:59 a.m. ET Jan. 30, 2019
For most Americans, cold snaps and blizzards are a minor inconvenience. 
But for the most vulnerable in our society, extreme weather can turn lethal.
- - -
Surprisingly, one of the best ways that cities can protect vulnerable 
people is by investing in social infrastructure such as branch 
libraries, which provide shelter, warmth and security in ordinary times 
and in lethal weather. Libraries, after all, are among our most 
accessible shared spaces. They're staffed by professionals who are 
committed to supporting local communities. They're popular among people 
of all ages, social classes and groups.

In our divided society, libraries are rare places that foster trust, 
decency and bonding, which is one reason why they've been so essential 
in the aftermath of recent weather disasters, such as Superstorm Sandy 
in New York City and Hurricane Harvey in Houston. Yet too many cities 
neglect them. They often don't have generators for power outages or 
sufficient staff to deal with crises. In some places, they aren't open 
often enough to help.

It's an irony that, in a warming world, the cold can be so deadly. But 
the cold most dangerous is the one that comes from within us, not the 
one that blows in from the Arctic North.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/01/30/polar-vortex-2019-freezing-temperatures-chicago-column/2713906002/



[International history of climate treaties]
*The Surprising Evolution of the Climate Regime - Thomas Hale*
Oxford Climate Society
Published on Mar 11, 2018
Thomas Hale (Associate Professor in Global Public Policy at the 
Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford) gives a 
presentation on international climate politics as part of the Oxford 
Climate Society's School of Climate Change.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1VvLRra1D8


[GAMESPOT video game]
Civilization VI: Gathering Storm releases on February 14.
*Global Warming Is Your Worst Enemy In Civilization VI: Gathering Storm*
Global Warring.
By David Wildgoose on January 31, 2019 at 3:37PM
Sid Meier's Civilization VI

The British Empire is on the verge of collapse. Government House, 
nestled on a headland just across the Thames from the center of London, 
is somehow simultaneously underwater and ablaze. Once the home of Oasis, 
the city of Manchester is now little more than a shrinking island as 
entire coastal neighborhoods disappear into the rising sea. Maybe the 
sun never sets, but it's getting awfully late in the day.

However, this is no post-Brexit apocalypse. It's simply the state of 
play in my game of Civilization VI. The upcoming expansion, Gathering 
Storm, introduces the concept of climate change and, as I and every 
other civilization on the planet burn through consumable fuel resources, 
global temperature rises precipitate the polar ice to melt and the ocean 
to breach the walls of London. Time to rethink my strategy.

Following last year's Rise & Fall, Gathering Storm is the second major 
expansion for Civ VI and, based on the evidence so far, it suggests a 
continuation of Firaxis' efforts to disrupt the established meta. Where 
Rise & Fall delivered the ability to transition from a Golden Age into a 
Dark Age and back again--a system designed to chart the ebb and flow of 
an empire throughout history--Gathering Storm is more concerned with a 
gradual accumulation of choices slowly building over the course of the 
game before unleashing fury towards the end. You can see the dark clouds 
approaching. The question is: how long can you keep them at bay?
"We usually look at the second expansion of a Civilization title as the 
one where we make sure our content is robust and complete all the way to 
the end of the game," explains Civilization franchise lead designer Ed 
Beach. "For Civilization V, that was the additions of ideologies in 
Brave New World, with an emphasis on the World War period.

"We're taking a different tack in Civilization VI--this time we are 
focusing on the present time and the ecological struggles with climate 
change that face mankind in the 21st century. That's the big new 
addition with Gathering Storm, confronting players with decisions about 
how they are relating to the planet. There are winning strategies both 
ways: the diplomatic player probably wants to treat the planet well and 
participate in worldwide climate accords; a more militaristic player may 
not care and may even consider the fact that rising sea levels could 
deal damage to some of his coastal enemies."
Beach says Firaxis built their climate model using the predominant 
scientific conclusions on how the Earth is changing. It's a fairly 
straightforward relationship: CO2 emissions from exploiting resources 
such as coal and oil add to the global temperature. As the planet gets 
warmer, polar ice melts, sea levels rise, and finally flooding, storms, 
and droughts become more frequent.

Weather events occur from the very beginning of the game. Settle on the 
floodplains of a river and at some point, the banks will break. 
Similarly, some mountain tiles are now designated as volcanoes, which 
can become active, erupt, and cover adjacent tiles with lava. More 
randomly, blizzards, typhoons, and dust storms can now spawn on the map 
and trace a path of destruction through your lands.

Early on, these events aren't too bad, and can even be beneficial. A 
flood might injure a warrior you had stationed along the river or 
require you to repair damage to a wheat farm. But once the flood passes 
and you've cleaned up the mess, it's likely the tiles' soil will have 
been fertilized, providing additional resources for the rest of the game.
The idea of "playing the map" was a big part of the design ethos driving 
the development of Civ VI. Opening specialist districts constructed 
outside the city center to all kinds of bonuses based on adjacent 
terrain, as well as restrictions on where World Wonders can be built, 
requires you to adapt to the specific circumstances in front of you. 
You're playing the map as presented, rather than relying on some 
pre-defined optimal strategy. This idea is explicitly reflected in 
Gathering Storm's climate change and weather events.

"These changes were indeed deliberate additions to accentuate this 
feeling of playing the map,"

"These changes were indeed deliberate additions to accentuate this 
feeling of playing the map," says Beach. "Settling in a floodplain or 
near a volcano is obviously fraught with peril, yet mankind has 
continued to do just this for centuries. Why? Well, these are some of 
the most fertile agricultural areas on earth. With these tradeoffs in 
mind, these two natural disasters were the first ones we prototyped for 
Gathering Storm. They proved immensely popular with our testers so we 
kept going and added coastal flooding, droughts, and four kinds of 
storms before we were done."

In the late game, as storms and floods hit with greater frequency and 
severity, these events can be devastating. In my game as England, I'd 
been engaged in a border skirmish with India when a freak storm ripped 
through the city of Bristol, pillaging my only Encampment district. At a 
crucial moment in the war, I was unable to resupply my frontline with 
reinforcements until the armory and stable had been repaired. Thanks to 
the weather, I had to pursue a peace deal or risk being overrun.
Worse, in the situation I describe at the top of the page from later in 
the same game, the rising sea meant my Government Plaza district was 
destroyed, presumably for good, taking with it the powerful bonuses of 
its Audience Chamber and other internal buildings. Meanwhile, Manchester 
lost five workable tiles, including a Neighborhood district, its sole 
lumber mill, and the very spot I'd planned to build a Theater Square, 
leaving it with a population of 23 but a housing capacity of just 14. 
The Civ late game has rarely been so unpredictable and dynamic.

Indeed, according to Beach, "Our primary goal with this expansion is to 
make the world and map seem more dynamic, more alive." He also helpfully 
points out where my England game might have started to go wrong, and 
suggests some of the choices I could have made to, if not prevent 
environmental catastrophe, then perhaps mitigate or decelerate it.

"Our primary goal with this expansion is to make the world and map seem 
more dynamic, more alive."

"Coal, and subsequently Oil, unlock much earlier in the game than their 
renewable alternatives," Beach says. "We have added extensive bonuses to 
the third tier district buildings if your cities are powered, so you'll 
want to get going initially with coal and oil so you don't spend three 
eras of the game missing out on these significantly higher yields.

"Once uranium and renewables come online, there are several more factors 
to consider. Solar and wind farms consume a tile around your city late 
in the game when such spots are very precious. A nuclear plant has high 
output and very low CO2 emissions, but you need to spend city resources 
maintaining it regularly or an accident could result. All in all, we 
have eight different buildings or improvements that generate power all 
with unique terrain or resource requirements, outputs and tradeoffs."
Along with some of the other existing civs and leaders, England has had 
its abilities revised to suit the new features found in Gathering Storm. 
Specifically, England gains extra Iron and Coal resources, and derives 
greater additional yields from powering its cities. In combination, this 
means England comes into its own during the Industrial Era and, to gain 
full advantage of the country's unique abilities, you should be building 
coal power plants in every city and, uh, filling the skies above London 
and Manchester with horrible black smoke. Needless to say, the first 
time I checked the in-game World Climate report, my empire was 
responsible for over 90% of the world's CO2 emissions. As the water 
lapped at the door of No.10 Downing St I really only had myself to blame.

Since the beginning of time--well, 1991, to be precise--Sid Meier's 
Civilization has tended to view humanity through an optimistic lens. Of 
course, it's a very Western Civilization-centric perspective that, amid 
depicting the atrocities of war and colonization throughout history, one 
can remain hopeful and keep faith in the idea of the march of progress. 
So, perhaps, all is not yet lost for England, just like all is not yet 
lost for our own planet.

"Our warming planet is a story that is still unfolding and will take at 
least the first half of this century before we get to any conclusive 
outcome," says Beach.

"So to give that phenomenon time to play out, we needed to extend our 
game 25 to 50 years into the future. That meant adding a few new steps 
or considerations to both our Science and Culture victories. It also 
meant the era needed to include new tools to battle climate change, help 
with these extended victories, and provide high-tech military options.

"Since all these items are advances that mankind hasn't yet fully 
unlocked, we felt it was a bit presumptuous for us to know their precise 
order. That's why we hit on the idea of shuffling their order and 
position within the trees each game. The contents of those nodes remain 
hidden until you research the prerequisite."

In previous Civ games, you would still pump Science or Culture into 
researching generic "future" technologies and civics once you reached 
the end of their respective trees. There was little point to this--it 
was merely counting down to the eventual winner. With Gathering Storm, 
there's the admission that, however hopeful we might be, we still don't 
quite know what the future holds. And as a strategy game, Civilization 
still has that one final curveball to throw our way. Will it be enough 
to save England?

Civilization VI: Gathering Storm releases on February 14.
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/global-warming-is-your-worst-enemy-in-civilization/1100-6464706/

*This Day in Climate History - February 4, 1992 - from D.R. Tucker*
February 4, 1992: In one of the worst examples of mainstream media 
false-balance in US history, Ted Koppel hosts a "debate" on ABC's 
"Nightline" between Sen. Al Gore (D-TN) and Rush Limbaugh on global 
warming and other environmental issues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9rZKJt4ZC4 (Part 1)
http://youtu.be/WbC-yWycHfM (Part 2)
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