[TheClimate.Vote] February 5, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/February 5, 2019/

[Book tour for - The Uninhabitable Earth: A Story of the Future - is due 
out on 19 February]
*David Wallace-Wells on climate: 'People should be scared - I'm scared'*
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/03/david-wallace-wells-on-climate-people-should-be-scared-im-scared?CMP=share_btn_link


[combination of perils down under]
*Australia floods: Crocodiles seen in 'once in a century' waters*
Authorities in Townsville, Australia have warned residents to beware of 
crocodiles and snakes spotted in floodwaters in residential areas.
More than 1,100 people have been evacuated from the town amid a "once in 
a century" flood.
On Sunday, the city authorities released a dam which had swollen to 
double its capacity following a week of record rainfall.
Authorities have said more heavy rain is expected in coming days.

Opened dam floods Australian city
Up to 20,000 homes are at risk of being inundated.
Emergency workers and the army said they had received more than 1,000 
calls for help. They've been using boats and helicopters to move people 
to higher ground.

"Crocodiles may be seen crossing roads, and when flooding recedes, 
crocodiles can turn up in unusual places such as farm dams or 
waterholes," said Queensland's Environment Minister Leeanne Enoch.
"Similarly, snakes are very good swimmers and they too may turn up 
unexpectedly."
One local resident, Erin Hahn, shared pictures of a crocodile sitting in 
shallow water at the end of her father's drive. Another was photographed 
climbing a tree in the floodwater.
Townsville has received more than a metre (3.3ft) of rain in the past 
week - more than 20 times the average for the time of year.

"This is unprecedented, we've never seen anything like this before," 
said Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
"It's basically not just a one-in-20-year event, it's a one-in-100-year 
event," she said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-47112044


[From the Fram Center and Barrents Observer - Arctic publication]
[definition first]
*OCEAN ACIDIFICATION*
The ocean is in gas equilibrium with the atmosphere, so when atmospheric 
CO2 increases, more CO2 is taken up by oceans. There, it reacts with 
water to form carbonic acid. The most prominent effects of this reaction 
are a decrease in the seawater's carbonate ion concentration, and a 
lowering of its pH (a phenomenon termed ocean acidification). The 
world's oceans are estimated to have absorbed 155 billion tonnes of 
anthropogenic carbon between 1750 and 2010, roughly one third of the CO2 
emitted by human activity over that period. This has lowered the global 
mean pH of the surface ocean from 8.13 in pre-industrial times to the 
present-day 8.05. The pH scale is logarithmic, so this corresponds to a 
20% increase in acidity. Ocean models predict that this trend will 
continue; we expect a further decrease of 0.4 pH units by 2100...
*Will ocean acidification affect arctic zooplankton populations?*
Fram Centre - January 31, 2019
You may know that the carbon dioxide we humans release is changing the 
climate. Fewer are aware that it is also changing the chemistry of 
seawater. About a third of the CO2 we emit is taken up by the oceans, 
where it lowers the water's pH. That has consequences for marine ecosystems.
Text by: Peter Thor and Allison Bailey, Norwegian Polar Institute
In the ocean, zooplankton are a crucial link between energy-producing 
phytoplankton and fish. We have studied how changing acidity might 
affect zooplankton. Although recent research has revealed a complex web 
of interactions between plankton species, the notion of a linear food 
chain from phytoplankton via zooplankton to fish is still valid as a 
model for the transport of energy from primary producers to fish stocks 
in arctic waters. There, most fish larvae rely on zooplankton for food. 
This makes the arctic ecosystem particularly vulnerable to perturbations 
that affect zooplankton productivity. One focus of concern is how arctic 
zooplankton populations will evolve in the face of climate change and 
ocean acidification (OA)...
Just as arctic ecosystems are vulnerable to perturbation, the waters of 
the Arctic are vulnerable to OA. Present OA rates are far higher here, 
and they are expected to remain so for three reasons. First, melting sea 
ice has low capacity to buffer acidity. Second, although the Arctic 
Ocean constitutes only 1% of the global ocean volume, it receives 11% of 
the discharge from rivers, which not only has low buffering capacity but 
also brings significant amounts of terrestrial carbon, which may 
ultimately be transformed to CO2 by microbial respiration. Finally, 
increasing inflow from the North Atlantic transports large amounts of 
anthropogenic CO2 to the Arctic Ocean. Arctic organisms are therefore 
the first to face the effects of OA and will face stronger OA in the 
future...
Unfortunately, arctic species may also be less well equipped to handle 
decreasing pH than most other marine invertebrates. Unlike 
lower-latitude species that tolerate a wide range of temperatures, true 
polar species perform best at low temperatures. But this advantage comes 
at a price. Polar marine invertebrates have less energy available for 
cellular pH regulation...
- - -
There is no doubt that the Arctic will change, and along the increase in 
temperature, one of the main changes is the decrease in pH. Although our 
knowledge on the effects of Arctic OA is increasing, we still know 
little about how these changes will affect the entire pelagic community, 
including fish stocks. During our work in the Fram Centre Ocean 
Acidification Flagship, we have focused particularly on effects on the 
keystone zooplankton species, the Calanus copepods. Ultimately, we hope 
our work will enable ecosystem models to project how future OA might 
affect the entire arctic ecosystem.
https://framsenteret.no/2018/03/will-ocean-acidification-affect-arctic-zooplankton-populations/ 



[tune in tomorrow ]
*HEARING ON "TIME FOR ACTION: ADDRESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC 
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE"*
Date: Wednesday, February 6, 2019 - 10:00am
Location: 2123 Rayburn House Office Building
Subcommittees:
Environment & Climate Change (116th Congress)
The Subcommittee on Environment and Climate Change of the Committee on 
Energy and Commerce will hold a hearing on Wednesday, February 6, 2019, 
at 10 a.m. in room 2123 of the Rayburn House Office Building. The 
hearing is entitled, "Time for Action:  Addressing the Environmental and 
Economic Effects of Climate Change."
https://energycommerce.house.gov/committee-activity/hearings/hearing-on-time-for-action-addressing-the-environmental-and-economic



[A brief, poetic video]
*LIVING INTO BEING**
*"What futures are YOU living into being?" asks this short film, taken 
from an interview with Culture Designer/Evolutionary Joe Brewer. A 
conversation about the context of the time we are living in, combined 
with aerial cinematography from various locations in the USA and Iceland.
- -
A rough transcript:
We've been given a false choice between a story of hope and the story of 
doom.
The false choice is that they're both true.
I learned that reframing climate change required us to not talk about 
climate.
Instead we need to talk about what it means to be human and how 
economies work.
I also learned that global warming as an idea is inherently 
traumatizing. It hurts us. So what we have to do is prepare ourselves 
for some trauma because global warming, while traumatizing, is also real.
A false hope between a story of hope and a story of doom misses the 
combining of the two.
The story of authentic painful struggle worth having is the story that 
ignites hope. It ignites hope because we embrace the struggle and pain 
and we don't run from it.
The realization that this is the story that we have been waiting for, 
that this is a story that is not yet written, so we cannot tell it , is 
something that a lot of people miss.
People ask me what story I would tell for the new paradigm, and I tell 
them that you cannot tell a story that has not happened yet.
We don't create it by telling it we create it by living it.
To live a story that combines hope and doom is to walk courageously into 
the pain of loss, knowing that there is something worth doing about it.
The best way to do this is to have something that you love in the future 
that you cannot let be lost.
For all the parents it's the future for your grandchildren not yet born 
and great grandchildren.
For the nature lovers it is the landscape that has been depleted, that 
will regenerate after you're dead after you're long gone.
So to step into the pain and the loss, and to find the hope that you 
will never touch, is hope you give to someone else. This is the call to 
service.
That is the story that we experience, and as we do, we will discover 
that not knowing was an essential piece of living it.
https://vimeo.com/235829612


[The Green New Deal - might be the most important legislation ever]
*Ocasio-Cortez Begins to Sketch Out Details of 'Green New Deal'*
By Ari Natter  and Billy House
February 4, 2019
Environmental legislation dubbed a "Green New Deal" and championed by 
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has drawn widespread attention 
-- despite the fact that no one really knows for sure what it is.

Now, as Ocasio-Cortez prepares to release a blueprint, details are emerging.

"Next week, we plan to release a resolution that outlines the scope and 
scale of the Green New Deal," according to a letter the New York 
Democrat sent to colleagues. "In it, we call for a national, social, 
industrial and economic mobilization at a scale not seen since World War 
II."

Goals laid out in the letter include reaching net-zero greenhouse gas 
emissions "through a fair and just transition for all communities and 
workers," creating millions of "good, high-wage jobs" while ensuring 
prosperity and economic security for all, and investment in 
infrastructure and industry.

The resolution will also call for clean air and water, climate 
resiliency, healthy food, access to nature and "a sustainable 
environment for all for generations to come," according to the letter. 
Lastly, the Green New Deal will "promote justice and equity by 
preventing current and repairing historic oppression to frontline and 
vulnerable communities."

She said the goals will be accomplished through a 10-year plan of 
industrial and infrastructure projects.

So far the Green New Deal has drawn the support of more than 40 
progressive lawmakers as well as Democratic 2020 presidential 
candidates, but has yet to elicit full-throat support from Democratic 
moderates including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. While the Green New Deal 
would certainly never pass muster with coal-state Senate Majority Leader 
Mitch McConnell and President Donald Trump, some of the plan's backers 
believe it's important to show it has the blessing of the House 
Democrats in advance of the 2020 presidential elections.

Conservative lawmakers have seized on the plan as a product of out of 
touch liberals, with some price estimates ranging as high as $7 trillion.

"Americans deserve better than to foot the bill for the Green New Deal's 
reckless, expensive, and unattainable goals," said Oklahoma Republican 
Representative Markwayne Mullin. "The Green New Deal, just like 
proposals for free college or Medicaid for All, is nothing but an empty 
promise that leaves American taxpayers on the hook."

The House resolution has nine co-sponsors and climate champion 
Democratic Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts will introduce companion 
legislation in the Senate, according to the letter.

Markey issued a statement Monday saying he has invited Varshini Prakash, 
co-founder of Sunrise, a group that supports the Green New Deal, as his 
guest to the State of the Union on Tuesday.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-04/ocasio-cortez-begins-to-sketch-out-details-of-green-new-deal
- - -
[Opinion in the Financial Times$]
*Pay for Green New Deal now or spend even more later*
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's plan to halt climate change will be cheaper 
in the long run
ROBERT HOCKETT
The new Democrats in the US Congress already have done something no 
American politician has managed for decades: to get people talking about 
massive -- and massively transformative -- public investment as a real 
prospect.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's plan for a Green New Deal to 
fight climate change envisions massive spending on carbon-free products, 
services and infrastructure. It would be larger than any other American 
government undertaking since Franklin D Roosevelt's original New Deal 
and the US mobilisation for the second world war. This is true no matter 
which measure is used: real expenditure or expenditure as a percentage 
of gross domestic product.

Ambition on such a scale always draws naysaying from the timid, the 
cynical and the economically uninformed, and this time has been no 
exception. Predictable expressions of skepticism have been accompanied 
by jibes of "how will you pay for it?".

But we must remember that in this case, size matters -- and matters in a 
way that critics seem to miss. The problems the Green New Deal addresses 
require solutions where bigger is better, imperative and, paradoxically, 
more affordable. Climate scientists tell us that average global 
temperatures have now crossed a threshold, and are still climbing at a 
rate that leaves us no option but to reverse course. Further 
foot-dragging will lead to astronomically high costs from more frequent 
environmental calamities. There is also massive environmental 
degradation being wrought by contamination from chemicals, plastics and 
other materials.

The question now is not whether to address these threats but how -- and 
how quickly. Green New Deal supporters recognise not only that we must 
act but also that going big here is actually to go more affordably too. 
That might seem counterintuitive but there are three reasons why this 
makes sense.

Firstly, there are economies of scale: like all productive activities, 
climate mitigation occasions both fixed costs and variable costs. Fixed 
costs tend to diminish proportionally as the scale of activity rises, 
reducing average cost per unit, at least until the law of diminishing 
returns kicks in. Where climate mitigation is concerned, the scale of 
the threat that we face is so monstrous that we are unlikely to run into 
that threshold for many years to come.

A bigger Green New Deal would also will be more affordable in the long 
run because of what is known as the snowball effect. The pace of climate 
change will accelerate as early harms damage the environment's capacity 
to compensate for later ones. This leads to accelerating costs and 
negative feedback. As a consequence, it is clear that acting faster will 
yield greater impact than acting sluggishly. And acting faster here 
means spending more now rather than later.

The third reason to "go big" on the Green New Deal is connected to the 
question of making it affordable. For countries such as the US that run 
a deficit, governments essentially create money when they spend it. The 
danger is that if too much money is created, inflation will rise rapidly 
and make the money worth less. But this is actually a reason to spend 
more to increase production and productive capacity. The key here is 
that inflation occurs when there is too much money in relation to a 
given stock of goods and services. Supporters of Ms Ocasio-Cortez's 
plans understand that spending will be absorbed without causing 
inflation if we ramp up production and installation of everything from 
solar panels and batteries to new plants and "smart" power grids.

Not since the US moved to a wartime economy in 1942 has America seen 
such productive enhancement. And the comparison is apt. When you are 
fighting for your very survival, you do not pinch pennies. That would be 
false economy. In this case it would also be suicide.

The writer is a law and finance professor at Cornell Law School and 
advises Ms Ocasio-Cortez
https://www.ft.com/content/046e7c30-23c8-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb



[Massachusetts Podcast audi 18 min]
*Doctors, Economists, and Marching Women Agree - Time for Climate Action!*
Jan 27th, 2019 by massclimateaction
The third annual women's march inspires us to connect the dots between 
women's issues and climate change. Woman are disproportionately affected 
by climate change globally, and often feel the burden of climate 
problems most acutely. Also, tune in as we discuss why doctors and 
economists are joining the clarion call for climate action.
https://massclimateaction.podbean.com/e/doctors-economists-and-marching-women-agree-time-for-climate-action/


*This Day in Climate History - February 5, 1990 - from D.R. Tucker*
February 5, 1990: Addressing a special IPCC gathering in Washington, 
D.C., President George H. W. Bush acknowledges the reality of 
human-caused climate change, but says that solutions to the problem of a 
warming planet must not inhibit worldwide economic growth.
http://web.archive.org/web/20100811144431/http://bushlibrary.tamu.edu/research/public_papers.php?id=1514&year=1990&month=all 

http://c-spanvideo.org/program/PresidentialAddress28
http://articles.latimes.com/1990-02-05/news/mn-275_1_global-warming

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