[TheClimate.Vote] January 5, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/January 5, 2019/

[The House steps up ]
*'The existential threat of our time': Pelosi elevates climate change on 
Day One*
Democrats put climate change back on the forefront of their governing 
agenda Thursday, portraying the issue as an "existential threat" even as 
the caucus remains split over how forcefully to respond.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi brought up the issue in her opening address while 
touting a new select panel to come up with ideas on how to solve it, and 
the Energy and Commerce Committee announced that climate change would be 
the subject of its very first hearing this year...
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/03/nancy-pelosi-climate-change-congress-1059148


[Liability]
*Devastating Wildfires Force California's Largest Utility To Plan Sale 
Of Gas Assets*
Facing staggering liability costs for its potential culpability in a 
series of deadly wildfires, the parent company of California's largest 
utility is exploring whether to sell off a major part of the company, 
NPR has learned.

Internally, Pacific Gas & Electric has dubbed this strategy "Project 
Falcon." Under the plan, the company would sell its natural gas division 
this spring. After years of deadly errors and safety violations, the 
utility giant is looking for ways to cover liability costs and avoid 
bankruptcy, a senior company official and a former employee with 
knowledge of the plan tell NPR.

All net proceeds from the sale of PG&E's gas division would be used to 
set up a fund to pay billions of dollars in potential claims from 
wildfires, the sources said. They requested anonymity because they were 
not authorized to speak publicly.

The company also is exploring selling key real estate assets, including 
its San Francisco headquarters, and moving its operations elsewhere in 
the Bay Area, the sources say...
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/04/677832387/devastating-wildfires-force-californias-largest-utility-to-plan-sale-of-gas-asse


[top news today: Ice is melting]
*Antarctic sea ice is 'astonishingly' low this melt season*
By Eric Holthaus on Jan 3, 2019
Right now, on the shores of Antarctica, there's open water crashing 
against the largest ice shelf in the world. The annual ice-free season 
has begun at the Ross Ice Shelf -- a month ahead of schedule.

The frozen region of freshwater ice the size of France partially 
protects the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from collapsing into the sea. In 
recent years, the ice-free season in the Ross Sea has become a routine 
event -- but it happened this year on New Year's Day, the earliest time 
in history.

"Antarctic sea ice extent is astonishingly low this year, not just near 
the Ross Ice Shelf, but around most of the continent," says Cecilia 
Bitz, a polar scientist at the University of Washington.

In recent years, scientists have set up seismic monitoring stations on 
the ice shelf to track the wave energy as it percolates inland, 
potentially causing stress fractures on the Ross Ice Shelf along the way.

Bitz pointed to low ice concentration also happening right now in the 
Amundsen Sea, more than 1,000 miles away from Ross, and that's 
potentially even more worrying. In a worst-case scenario, with continued 
business as usual greenhouse gas emissions, ice shelves all across West 
Antarctica could collapse within decades, melted from above and below 
and shattered by wave action.

After that, it would probably be just a matter of time before West 
Antarctica's massive land-based glaciers, like the "Doomsday glaciers" 
at Thwaites and Pine Island, collapse as well, sending sea levels upward 
by as much as 10 feet and flooding every coastal city on Earth...
Across the entire continent, there are more than 750,000 square miles of 
sea ice missing, a record [deficit] for this time of year. Because it's 
approaching mid-summer in the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctica will keep 
shedding sea ice for about another six weeks or so, and is currently on 
pace to drop far below the all-time record low set in 2016.

The North Pole and South Pole are both very cold, of course, but they 
couldn't be more different in how climate change is affecting them.

The Arctic is an ocean fringed by cold continents, and has already 
passed a tipping point. Sea ice there has been declining sharply for 
decades -- so much so that about a year ago, scientist declared the 
start of a "New Arctic," with conditions likely unseen in at least 1,500 
years, and probably much, much longer.

Owing to its unique geography (a cold continent fringed by a relatively 
warmer ocean), sea ice in the Antarctic region has long been considered 
something of a climate wildcard. A sharp decline in the Antarctic began 
only two years ago, and scientists aren't sure yet if it will continue. 
If 2019 and the rapidly warming Southern Ocean is any indication, it will.
https://grist.org/article/antarctic-sea-ice-is-astonishingly-low-this-melt-season/


[Less bad does not mean better]
*A Terrifying Sea-Level Prediction Now Looks Far Less Likely*
But experts warn that our overall picture of sea-level rise looks far 
scarier today than it did even five years ago.
One of the scariest scenarios for near-term, disastrous sea-level rise 
may be off the table for now, according to a new study previewed at a 
recent scientific conference.

Two years ago, the glaciologists Robert DeConto and David Pollard rocked 
their field with a paper arguing that several massive glaciers in 
Antarctica were much more unstable than previously thought. Those key 
glaciers--which include Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, both 
in the frigid continent's west--could increase global sea levels by more 
than three feet by 2100, the paper warned. Such a rise could destroy the 
homes of more than 150 million people worldwide.

They are now revisiting those results. In new work, conducted with three 
other prominent glaciologists, DeConto and Pollard have lowered some of 
their worst-case projections for the 21st century. Antarctica may only 
contribute about a foot of sea-level rise by 2100, they now say. This 
finding, reached after the team improved their own ice model, is much 
closer to projections made by other glaciologists.

It is a reassuring constraint placed on one of the most alarming 
scientific hypotheses advanced this decade. The press had described 
DeConto and Pollard's original work as an "ice apocalypse" spawned by a 
"doomsday glacier." Now their worst-case skyrocketing sea-level scenario 
seems extremely unlikely, at least within our own lifetimes...
- - -
While "marine ice-cliff instability" might be clunky, the idea is 
cinematic. It holds that warm ocean waters will eventually chew away the 
floating ice shelves that gird Antarctic glaciers today. With these ice 
shelves gone, the glaciers will stand naked on the seafloor: towering, 
fragile cliffs of ice. Imagine a 300-foot-tall shard of sapphire rising 
from the ocean and stretching for miles in both directions, and you will 
have a sense of the awesome prospect of this new geography. You will 
also have a sense of its dangerous physics, because ice cannot support 
itself at such heights. As MICI kicks in, those sapphire walls will 
crack, buckle, and begin rapidly birthing hundred-foot splinters of 
frozen freshwater into the sea. And thus the oceans will rise...
- - -
MICI remains a young idea, first proposed only six years ago. It need 
not be rejected simply because scientists haven't arrived at hard 
conclusions yet, Fricker, the Scripps glaciologist, said. Marine 
ice-cliff instability remains a worrying possibility: a low-chance, 
high-danger tail risk of climate change. It's just one of the many 
gambles that humanity is placing on its own future--and it's not even 
the only mechanism that could cause West Antarctica to collapse. 
Researchers are also investigating another mechanism, "marine ice-sheet 
instability," that could target some of the same fragile glaciers.

"It might not happen," Fricker said. "But if there's a chance that it 
could happen, then shouldn't you involve that in your planning? If 
you're hosting a picnic and it might rain, you don't necessarily move 
the whole event, but you probably do make a Plan B. If you're planning a 
city…you might as well keep this in the back of your mind."
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/sea-level-rise-may-not-become-catastrophic-until-after-2100/579478/


[cough, cough]
*Study: Even low levels of air pollution kills people*
By TRACY SAMILTON - JUL 4, 2017
MICHIGAN RADIO
A new study from Harvard University concludes that there is no "safe" 
level of air pollution.
Researcher Qian Di and colleagues find that particulate matter and ozone 
kills thousands of people every year, even at levels below the federal 
standard.
James Clift of the Michigan Environmental Council says the message for 
the state is clear: DTE Energy and Consumers Energy should not delay 
shutting down their remaining coal-burning plants.
http://www.michiganradio.org/post/study-even-low-levels-air-pollution-kills-people
- -
[Med Page Today journal]
*Study: Even Low-Level Air Pollution Kills the Elderly*
No safe threshold for exposures to fine particulates, ground-level ozone
UP
by Alexandria Bachert MPH, Staff Writer, MedPage Today
June 28, 2017
Action Points
Long-term exposure to airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone 
was associated with an increased risk of death among Medicare 
beneficiaries, even for exposures below National Ambient Air Quality 
Standards, reported researchers.

Analysis of more than 60 million Medicare beneficiaries found that each 
increase in PM2.5 of 10 microgram/m3 was associated with a 7.3% increase 
in all-cause mortality (95% CI 7.1%-7.5%), reported Qian Di, MS, of 
Harvard University, and colleagues in the New England Journal of Medicine.

"If we could reduce PM2.5 level by just 1 microgram/m3 nationwide, we 
could save about 12,000 lives just among people above 65 years old. The 
health benefit could be even larger in the overall population," Di told 
MedPage Today.

"There was no appreciable level below which mortality risk tapered off, 
and thus no 'safe' level of PM2.5. More importantly, we found 
significant harmful effects of air pollution below the current National 
Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5."

Writing in an accompanying editorial, titled "Air Pollution Still 
Kills," Rebecca E. Berger, MD, of Massachusetts General Hospital in 
Boston, and colleagues said, "Owing to the large size of the cohort, 
[the researchers] were able to perform robust subgroup analyses and 
identified greater risks of death associated with air pollutants among 
blacks and Medicaid-eligible populations; moreover, these groups were 
more likely to be exposed to higher pollutant levels.

"The findings stress the need for tighter regulation of air-pollutant 
levels, including the imposition of stricter limits on levels of PM2.5."

Di and colleagues constructed an open cohort of 60,925,443 Medicare 
beneficiaries in the continental U.S. with 460,310,521 person-years of 
follow-up. The team analyzed 2002-2012 data from the Medicare 
beneficiary denominator file from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid 
Services on all beneficiaries age 65 and older with all-cause mortality 
as the outcome. This included the date of death (up to Dec. 31, 2012), 
age at year of Medicare entry, year of entry, sex, race, ZIP code of 
residence, and Medicaid eligibility (a proxy for low socioeconomic status).

Annual averages of fine particulate matter PM2.5 and ozone were 
estimated according to the ZIP code of residence for each enrollee via 
previously validated prediction models.

Using a two-pollutant Cox proportional-hazards model that controlled for 
demographic characteristics, Medicaid eligibility, and area-level 
covariates, the researchers estimated the risk of death associated with 
exposure to increases of 10 μg per cubic meter for PM2.5 and 10 parts 
per billion (ppb) for ozone.

Annual average PM2.5 concentrations across the U.S. ranged from 6.21 to 
15.64 microgram per cubic meter (fifth and 95th percentiles, 
respectively), and the warm-season average ozone concentrations ranged 
from 36.27 to 55.86 ppb (fifth and 95th percentiles, respectively). The 
highest PM2.5 concentrations were in California and the eastern and 
southeastern U.S., while the Mountain region and California had the 
highest ozone concentrations.

For each 1 ppb increase in ozone, the associated mortality rate increase 
was about 1.1% (95% CI 1.0-1.2), Di et al reported. Similarly, a 
reduction in ozone level of just 1 ppb nationwide could save 1,900 
elderly lives each year, the team wrote.

The researchers also noted that males, blacks, and Medicaid-eligible 
participants had higher risk estimates associated with PM2.5 exposure 
compared with the national average. Notably among blacks, the effect 
estimate for PM2.5 was three times that of the overall population.

"The message is clear," Di explained in an email: "Air pollution kills 
people, even below current National Ambient Air Quality Standards. 
Current air quality standard is not stringent enough to protect human 
health. We need to strengthen, not weaken, EPA air pollution standards. 
We need to increase, not reduce the EPA research funding."

Berger and colleagues agreed, noting in the editorial that despite 
compelling data such as this study, "the Trump administration is moving 
headlong in the opposite direction. Trump's proposed budget includes 
crippling cuts to the EPA, including cuts in funding for both federal 
and state enforcement of regulations. The increased air pollution that 
would result from loosening current restrictions would have devastating 
effects on public health."
https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/environmentalhealth/66330


[Any ideas?]
*Southern California City Asking Residents for Suggestions on Battling 
Climate Change*
By Don Jergler - January 3, 2019
The city of Long Beach, Calif. is soliciting help from its citizens to 
come up with a plan to deal with climate change.

The coastal city of roughly half-a-million, which was an early adopter 
of the ban on plastic bags and was also quick to ban plastic straws, 
will hold a public workshop on Jan. 26 to discuss the proposed Climate 
Action and Adaptation Plan.

The plan, the Long Beach Press-Telegram writes, will be "a road map for 
how Long Beach - with the help of residents and businesses - can reduce 
the effects of global warming, an increasingly worrisome phenomenon that 
could be particularly devastating to coastal cities."

According to the newspaper, the climate plan will likely be 
"far-ranging," and detail incentives for energy efficiency, as well as 
creating insurance requirements for beachfront property owners in case 
their houses get destroyed during a flood.

"It will also look at how to upgrade Long Beach's electrical grid and 
other infrastructure to handle increased temperatures - a response to 
the 2015 heatwave-caused blackout that left downtown residents without 
power for five days," the story states.

The city says the goals of the plan are to help reduce greenhouse gas 
emissions, prepare the community for the impacts of climate change, 
improve the quality of life and enhance economic vitality in Long Beach.

"Long Beach strives to be a more sustainable and resilient city in the 
face of climate change impacts such as air pollution, extreme heat, 
drought, coastal storm surge, and sea level rise," is the city's 
statement on its plan...
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/01/03/513500.htm


[paradigm shift]
*A Clean Energy Revolution Is Rising in the Midwest, with Utilities in 
the Vanguard*
Xcel is leading the pack, with a pledge to go 100% zero carbon by 2050. 
Other major electricity providers are trading coal for wind and solar 
sooner than planned.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02012019/renewable-energy-tipping-point-midwest-2018-year-review-utilities-wind-solar-xcel-100-percent


*This Day in Climate History - January 5, 2000 - from D.R. Tucker*
January 5, 2000: During a Democratic Presidential debate with former New 
Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, Vice President Al Gore notes that as a 
Congressman, "...I decided to take on the issue of global warming and 
make it a national issue, when everybody was saying 'You know, you're 
going to run a lot of risk there. People are going to think that that's 
kind of off the edge there.' Well, now more and more people say, 'Yes, 
it is real,' and the next president has to be willing to take it on."
(29:28-29-50)
http://c-spanvideo.org/program/DemocraticCandidatesDebate10
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