[TheClimate.Vote] January 7, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/January 7, 2019/

[Good question]
***What if the Worst Case Models are Right?*
Production: Peter Sinclair / Yale Climate Connections
Year: 2018
Speakers: Patrick Brown (Stanford University), Michael Mann (Penn State 
University), Bill McKibben (350.org), Andrew Dressler (Texas A&M University)
Publication: Yale Climate Connections 
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtZdUYUZr493AUh_EInBYxQ
https://youtu.be/XB82kv6H0Q0


[video "this is the moment when you should not sleep"]
*Actual Expert tells audience, We won't have an Ice Age again!*
Climate State - Published on Jan 6, 2019
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact 
Research), speaks October 2018 at the 50th Anniversary Summit of the 
Club of Rome, Aurelio Peccei Lecture, in Rome. The talk is titled, 
"Climate, Complexity, Conversion". The talk briefly discusses the 2018 
landmark study, "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene" 
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 , delves into societies 
attention to climate change, and Schellnhuber touches on synergistic 
future challenges, such as artificial intelligence. #ClimateState
https://youtu.be/HyWSMovZLVY
*The study discussed by Schellnhuber, can be read here "Trajectories of 
the Earth System in the Anthropocene" 
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252*
[Paleoclimatology]
*How climate change caused the world's first ever empire to collapse*
THE CONVERSATION - 1/05/2019
VASILE ERSEK, NORTHUMBRIA UNIVERSITY, NEWCASTLE
Akkadia was the world's first empire. It was established in Mesopotamia 
around 4,300 years ago after its ruler, Sargon of Akkad, united a series 
of independent city states. Akkadian influence spanned along the Tigris 
and Euphrates rivers from what is now southern Iraq, through to Syria 
and Turkey...
https://www.sixdegreesnews.org/archives/26103/how-climate-change-caused-the-worlds-first-ever-empire-to-collapse
- -
[His important academic paper]
*Abstract*

    We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the
    Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could
    prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature
    rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even
    as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to
    a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in
    the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher
    than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such
    a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is
    crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious
    disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human
    action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential
    threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state.
    Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth
    System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include
    decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere
    carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new
    governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
    The Anthropocene is a proposed new geological epoch based on the
    observation that human impacts on essential planetary processes have
    become so profound that they have driven the Earth out of the
    Holocene epoch in which agriculture, sedentary communities, and
    eventually, socially and technologically complex human societies
    developed. The formalization of the Anthropocene as a new geological
    epoch is being considered by the stratigraphic community, but
    regardless of the outcome of that process, it is becoming apparent
    that Anthropocene conditions transgress Holocene conditions in
    several respects. The knowledge that human activity now rivals
    geological forces in influencing the trajectory of the Earth System
    has important implications for both Earth System science and
    societal decision making. While recognizing that different societies
    around the world have contributed differently and unequally to
    pressures on the Earth System and will have varied capabilities to
    alter future trajectories, the sum total of human impacts on the
    system needs to be taken into account for analyzing future
    trajectories of the Earth System.

Here, we explore potential future trajectories of the Earth System by 
addressing the following questions.

    -- Is there a planetary threshold in the trajectory of the Earth
    System that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization in a range of
    intermediate temperature rises?

    --Given our understanding of geophysical and biosphere feedbacks
    intrinsic to the Earth System, where might such a threshold be?

    --If a threshold is crossed, what are the implications, especially
    for the wellbeing of human societies?

    --What human actions could create a pathway that would steer the
    Earth System away from the potential threshold and toward the
    maintenance of interglacial-like conditions?

Addressing these questions requires a deep integration of knowledge from 
biogeophysical Earth System science with that from the social sciences 
and humanities on the development and functioning of human societies. 
Integrating the requisite knowledge can be difficult, especially in 
light of the formidable range of timescales involved. Increasingly, 
concepts from complex systems analysis provide a framework that unites 
the diverse fields of inquiry relevant to the Anthropocene. Earth System 
dynamics can be described, studied, and understood in terms of 
trajectories between alternate states separated by thresholds that are 
controlled by nonlinear processes, interactions, and feedbacks. Based on 
this framework, we argue that social and technological trends and 
decisions occurring over the next decade or two could significantly 
influence the trajectory of the Earth System for tens to hundreds of 
thousands of years and potentially lead to conditions that resemble 
planetary states that were last seen several millions of years ago, 
conditions that would be inhospitable to current human societies and to 
many other contemporary species.
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252


[warning!- too many commercials in this CBS 60 Minutes video]
*Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: The rookie congresswoman challenging the 
Democratic establishment*
The youngest woman ever elected to Congress tells 60 Minutes she thinks 
President Trump is racist and responds to criticisms she could be 
pushing the Democratic Party too far to the left
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-the-rookie-congresswoman-challenging-the-democratic-establishment-60-minutes-interview-full-transcript-2019-01-06/ 



[video also]
*Historic Antarctica Weddell Sea expedition sets sail to unearth 
'Endurance' wreckage*
Video report by ITV News Correspondent Geraint Vincent
A team of scientists investigating one of the most remote regions in the 
Antarctica hiding the "historic" Endurance wreckage have embarked on 
their expedition.
The S.A. Agulhas II vessel has set sail towards the Larsen C Ice Shelf, 
the fourth largest ice shelf in the Antarctica, where only a "handful of 
ships" have traveled to.
The mission is twofold - to unearth British explorer Earnest 
Shackleton's Endurance ship, which sank in 1915, and to carry out vital 
climate change research.
*If successful, it will be "the first scientific investigation" of that 
area.*
Only a handful of ships have been to the Weddell Sea since Ernest 
Shackleton's ship, Endurance, visited the area.
According to the voyagers the "scientific importance" of the region has 
only been realised in the last 15 to 20 years.
In 2017 an iceberg four times the size of London broke away from the 
Larsen C Ice Shelf.
Results from the investigation could lead to the discovery of new 
species and provide better insight into what is happening to sea ice 
levels around the world.
John Shears, Voyage Leader, told ITV News: "The primary scientific goal 
of the expedition is to get to the Larsen C ice shelf. The first 
scientific investigations of that area.

"No one has ever attempted to put an AUV underneath the ice shelf or 
study the sea ice in that area, so we aim to be the first to that.
"Our secondary objective, since we're in the area, is to try and find 
the historic wreck of Ernest Shackleton's ship, Endurance."

British explorer Sir Ernest Henry Shackleton visited the Antarctica in 
1915 with the primary aim of becoming the first person to cross the 
Antarctic.
However, the Endurance never made landfall.
"It got trapped in the ice, floated around with the ice for a little 
while and ultimately was crushed and sank," Scott Polar Research 
Institute's Museum Curator Charlotte Connelly told ITV News.

"So that left 28 men with three lifeboats, no one knew where they were, 
no one was going to come looking for them - they had to get themselves 
out of that mess."
While six men survived, the wreckage has never been found.

Only six men survived after the Endurance sank.
Despite being armed with coordinates and state-of-the art equipment, the 
team are still worried it might not be enough.

Mensun Bound, tasked with unearthing Endurance, told ITV News: "There 
are problems, the one that worries me the most, keeps me awake at night 
is ice coverage.

"Then we have to ask ourselves, how good is the position for the wreck? 
Can we find the wreck? We have Worlsey's [an explorer who served with 
Shackleton] recorded co-ordinates, but how good are they?

"Latitude is pretty sound, longitude, longitude worries me silly. It's 
always longitude. And then, you know what, the sea is a very big place.
But Mr Shears is optimistic about their chances of finding Endurance and 
telling its explorers' "incredible story of survival and leadership."

Alongside rediscovering a vital piece of exploration history he is also 
excited about putting a free swimming robot, an AUV, under the ice shelf 
of the Larsen C.The technology could help develop the global research 
being done on sea ice levels around the world.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-01-04/antarctica-weddell-sea-expedition-global-warming-climate-change-ernest-shackleton/


*This Day in Climate History - January 7, 1982 - from D.R. Tucker*
January 7, 1982: The New York Times reports:

    "Mankind's activities in increasing the amount of carbon dioxide and
    other chemicals in the atmosphere can be expected to have a
    substantial warming effect on climate, with the first clear signs of
    the trend becoming evident within this decade, a scientist at the
    National Aeronautics and Space Administration said here today.

    "The changes are in prospect because of excess carbon dioxide put
    into the atmosphere as humans burn coal, gas, oil and wood and cut
    forests for agriculture and other purposes. More recently there has
    also been an atmospheric buildup of methane, nitrous oxide and other
    chemicals as a result of agriculture and industry, said Dr. James
    Hansen of the space agency's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in
    New York.

    "Dr. Hansen spoke at a session of the annual meeting of the American
    Association for the Advancement of Science here and amplified some
    of his remarks at a news conference."

http://www.nytimes.com/1982/01/07/us/warming-of-world-s-climate-expected-to-begin-in-the-80-s.html
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