[TheClimate.Vote] July 6, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/July 6, 2019/

[thanks to A.A. for the Cape Town update]
*Continuous Recovery Following Recent Rainfall*
More rain is expected this week as well as into the rest of the winter 
months
Latest update: 2 July 2019
Dam levels are slowly recovering in the Western Cape thanks to recent 
rainfall. Provincial dam levels are increasing by about 2.5% per week. 
The average level for dams in the Western Cape is 39.3% (2018: 41.5%). 
The City of Cape Town's dams are now 52.6% full (2018: 48.3%)...
- - -
WHERE WE COME FROM
Throughout 2018, reports said Cape Town could be the first major city in 
the world to run out of drinking water, with images of dry dams being 
beamed all over the world.

Capetonians have taken on the challenge to save water: Not taking baths; 
shortening showers; not flushing with potable water, and becoming more 
conscious of when to wash clothes or have a tap open. Those who could 
buy rainwater tanks while others educated their neighbours on 
water-conscious usage. The hospitality industry invested in water 
re-usage systems and desalination plants were installed.

As things improve it's important to also read about how Capetonians 
pulled together, and for tourists to know that they make up only 1% of 
the population at peak season, and should consider Cape Town their top 
destination of choice.
https://theworldnews.net/za-news/continuous-recovery-following-recent-rainfall


[certainly]
*Nearly Every Democratic Presidential Candidate Is Now Backing a Debate 
on Climate Change*
There are now 19 candidates in favor.
REBECCA LEBER - Reporter
Nineteen of the 25 Democratic presidential candidates have gone on 
record in favor of holding a debate devoted to climate change policy. In 
the past three days, four more candidates--including Kamala Harris--have 
told Mother Jones that they support a climate debate, raising the stakes 
for the Democratic National Committee, which has so far resisted 
allowing such an event to take place. In addition to the California 
senator, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, former Rep. John Delaney 
(Md.), and former Rep. Joe Sestak (Pa.) are now calling for a climate 
debate, joining big-name candidates including Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, 
and Elizabeth Warren.

Earlier this year, the DNC announced plans to hold a dozen primary 
debates in 2019 and 2020 and to prohibit candidates from appearing in 
any debates that had not been approved by the national party. In April, 
climate activists launched a grassroots campaign demanding that one of 
the debates be dedicated to climate; they noted that presidential debate 
moderators had a long history of giving short shrift to the issue. It's 
not just because activists want to vet candidate platforms and 
solutions, but because even getting candidates to talk more about an 
issue can raise the issue's profile.

The activists quickly won support from Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who 
has put global warming at the center of his campaign. But the DNC's line 
all along has been that it wouldn't hold any issue-specific debates.

The controversy reemerged after the first round of Democratic debates 
last week. Climate received 15 minutes of discussion over two nights, 
but the largely superficial discussion of the issue only seemed to 
strengthen the activists' case, as key policy proposals such as the 
Green New Deal and 100 percent renewable energy mandates were virtually 
ignored.

DNC officials spent the weekend reconsidering the matter. The result was 
a pair of resolutions that could come up for a vote at the party's 
August meeting. One proposal, backed by DNC executive committee member 
Christine Pelosi and others, would create a climate debate. A separate 
resolution, which Pelosi described as less ideal, would call for a forum 
in which candidates would appear individually to address climate policy. 
A third way forward, she suggested, might include an effort to survey 
party members about which issues deserve a standalone debate.

"It was somewhat ironic we [DNC officials] spent more time debating 
climate in our debate on Saturday than the candidates did Wednesday and 
Thursday," Pelosi said.

If a climate debate does happen, much of the credit will belong to 
activist organizations like the US Youth Climate Strike, a teen-led 
group that has pressured candidates into endorsing the efforts. They 
plan to join with another youth-oriented group, Sunrise Movement, to 
keep up the pressure throughout the summer.

Still, six candidates either haven't taken a position on a climate 
change debate or didn't respond to requests for comment in time for 
publication. They are Sen. Cory Booker, who called for more time to be 
devoted to the issue after the first debate; Montana Gov. Steve Bullock; 
former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; Wayne Messam, the mayor of 
Miramar, Florida; California Rep. Eric Swalwell; and author Marianne 
Williamson.

*Here's what each of the candidates have said:*
*Joe Biden*
Biden addressed a Greenpeace activist at a campaign rally in Ottumwa, 
Iowa, on June 11: "That's what we should be doing," he said. "I'm all 
in, man. Take a look at what I'm talking about--and by the way, the 
first climate change plan in the history of the Congress?" The campaign 
confirmed his position to Mother Jones in July.

*Bernie Sanders*
He tweeted in response to a Youth Climate Strike activist:
We need a climate debate. There are quite simply few issues more 
important than the survival of our planet and people. 
https://t.co/yiOyFDUosx
--Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders), May 7, 2019

*Elizabeth Warren*
The candidate tweeted a video of her reading a letter from an activist 
asking her to sign a petition for a climate change debate. "I'm up for 
that," she said. She also backed Inslee's pushback against the DNC:

Gov. Inslee is exactly right. Climate change is the biggest challenge we 
face. Every candidate running for president should have a serious set of 
policies to address it, and should be eager to defend those proposals in 
a debate. https://t.co/6uprXIJKa2
-- Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) June 6, 2019

*Kamala Harris*
Harris' communications director told Mother Jones, "She's said she is 
happy to debate." Harris previously hadn't said publicly that she 
supports a climate change debate.

*Pete Buttigieg*
Buttigieg's campaign did not clarify the candidate's position on a 
debate, but a staffer says he "plans to continue to address the issue of 
climate change at every debate and every event that he attends."
As we reach just a hair away from 30,000 signatures in only about 48 
hours, our @IowaStrike Lead Lydia Pesek meets Pete Buttigieg who says he 
will "try to" support our petition. @PeteButtigieg, we hope you keep 
your promise and be a climate leader. Sign at https://t.co/65qmtSlsnX 
pic.twitter.com/QNL4VQV5Yu
--US Youth Climate Strike (@usclimatestrike), April 17, 2019

*Beto O'Rourke *
O'Rourke's campaign did not respond to a request for comment in time for 
publication to confirm Youth Climate Strike's tweet:
Breaking! @BetoORourke is asked by one of our national organizers if he 
would support a #climatedebate!
His response: "I like that idea… I can't see why we wouldn't want to 
participate!"
Thanks Beto! We hope you come out in full support! 
pic.twitter.com/vlaxSVtV6B
--US Youth Climate Strike (@usclimatestrike), May 6, 2019

*Cory Booker*
Booker supports more climate change discussion, but the campaign told 
Mother Jones that the decision is in the hands of the DNC.
Andrew Yang
When asked if he supports a climate debate, @AndrewYang gives us an 
enthusiastic yes. "Very much so. I wanna be there!"
Thank you for supporting our movement Andrew!
Together, we WILL get a climate debate and comprehensive policy to stop 
the climate crisis. pic.twitter.com/E9HUTW6gc1
--US Youth Climate Strike (@usclimatestrike), May 7, 2019

*John Delaney*
"John supports having a climate debate," his communications director 
wrote in a July 1 email. "Climate has been a big part of our campaign 
and we mentioned our carbon fee and dividend plan during the debate last 
week."

*Tulsi Gabbard*
@TulsiGabbard believes we do need to have a debate on the climate 
crisis, and environmental protection. She also believes that there needs 
to be a debate devoted to the issue of regime change wars, the new Cold 
War and nuclear arms race. #Tulsi2020 #NoMoreWars #Debate
--Cullen Tiernan (@CullenYossarian) June 7, 2019

*Amy Klobuchar*
Thank you so much @amyklobuchar for being a leader on not only 
supporting the #climatedebate, but taking the #NoFossilFuelMoney pledge 
from Day One! Keep signing and sharing the petition and 
https://t.co/65qmtSlsnX to get past the platitudes and straight to the 
policy on climate. pic.twitter.com/MKvV4IVLkg
--US Youth Climate Strike (@usclimatestrike), May 24, 2019

*Julian Castro*
I'm in! Climate change is a global crisis that knows no borders. My 
first executive action as President would be to recommit the U.S. to the 
Paris Climate Accord, and to reestablish America as a leader in the 
fight against climate change. #EarthDay https://t.co/4hsc3sT1Xb
--Julian Castro (@JulianCastro), April 22, 2019

*Bill de Blasio*
"We support this!" de Blasio's team told Mother Jones.

*Kirsten Gillibrand*
"A DNC debate focused on climate change would show the world that 
America intends to lead again on this issue, and would be a smart place 
to discuss the key tenets of the Green New Deal--infrastructure, green 
jobs and clean air and water--and how to put a price on carbon," she 
told the Daily Beast.

*Michael Bennet*
Bennet told Politico he thought a climate debate would be "great."

*Steve Bullock*
No position

*Mike Gravel*
Yep, and we'd love to have Mike Gravel come. We're proud to support.
--Sen. Mike Gravel (@MikeGravel), April 18, 2019

*John Hickenlooper *
No position

*Jay Inslee*
Inslee was the first candidate to endorse a climate change debate, on 
April 17, launching his own petition aimed at the DNC. "I cannot rule 
out any other debate that would highlight both the necessity of 
defeating the climate crisis and calling for the candidates to step up 
to the plate," Inslee said in an interview with Mother Jones. 
"Sixty-second sound bites, which is all you'll be able to get in a party 
debate, is grossly inadequate to the task."
*
**Wayne Messam *
No position

*Seth Moulton*
@JayInslee is right, we need a climate debate.
While we're at it, let's have a national security debate too. The 
American people deserve to hear all candidates' positions on these 
critical issues.
--Seth Moulton (@sethmoulton), June 7, 2019

*Tim Ryan*
I'm in! Climate change demands unprecedented action that requires our 
full and complete attention. This is an economic issue, a social justice 
issue, and a national security issue. @MoveOn https://t.co/CTaJcJ16nY
--Tim Ryan (@TimRyan), April 22, 2019

*Joe Sestak*
The candidate wrote on Wednesday in an email to Mother Jones, "How could 
you not? It is the most destructive threat to America and mankind."

*Eric Swalwell*
No position

*Marianne Williamson *
No position
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/07/nearly-every-democratic-presidential-candidate-is-now-backing-a-debate-on-climate-change/


[That's a lot of trees]
*Restoring forests may be our most powerful weapon in fighting climate 
change*
Adding 2.2 billion acres of tree cover would capture two-thirds of 
man-made carbon emissions, a new study found.
By Umair Irfan
- -
Forests' other valuable functions, like purifying water, mitigating air 
pollution, and drawing tourists also help make a strong policy case for 
restoring forests while creating pressure to deter further deforestation...
- - -
Climate change in turn is starting to affect forests and their ability 
to store carbon. Crowther noted that warming is making some of the most 
carbon-absorbing forest areas less hospitable to their native species. 
Climate change-exacerbated weather extremes like torrential downpours 
can also damage forests. That means restoration efforts will have more 
climate benefits the sooner they are implemented and yield diminishing 
returns over time.

Duncanson, however, said that it's not clear what direction carbon 
absorption will go under climate change. While some regions may become 
less hospitable to trees, others may benefit from increasing carbon 
dioxide in the atmosphere, so extrapolating forest behavior from the 
present into the future may not make sense.

"We have a lot more certainty with how forests will respond to current 
growing conditions than in the future," Duncanson said. "They might be 
more robust than we think. They might be even better carbon sinkers in 
the future. We don't know."

Also, not every bit of land that can be reforested will be reforested 
because there are other constraints. Even if a government were inclined 
to restore a forest, there is a finite amount of money, resources, and 
political capital to do so. So despite the theoretical potential of 
countering two-thirds of man-made emissions, it will be breathtakingly hard.

Duncanson said that Chazdon's and Crowther's papers both stand out for 
getting specific in identifying regions where trees could regrow. "It's 
nice to see that we have gone to the point of actually having maps of 
areas to restore forests," she said.

She is working on a project, known as the Global Ecosystem Dynamics 
Investigation (GEDI), that uses LIDAR aboard the International Space 
Station to create a three-dimensional map of the world's forests. From 
there, researchers hope to get a far more accurate estimate of the how 
trees take in carbon dioxide and what that means for the global climate. 
"I think that will be a nice extension of this work," Duncanson said.

https://www.vox.com/2019/7/4/20681331/climate-change-solutions-trees-deforestation-reforestation
- - -
[Source material]
*Global restoration opportunities in tropical rainforest landscapes*
Pedro H. S. Brancalion1, Aidin Niamir2, Eben Broadbent3, Renato 
Crouzeilles4,5,6, Felipe S. M. Barros7, Angelica M. Almeyda Zambrano8, 
Alessandro Baccini9, James Aronson10, Scott Goetz11, J. Leighton Reid10, 
Bernardo B. N. Strassburg4,5,6, Sarah Wilson12 and Robin L. 
Chazdon1,4,13,14,15
Science Advances  03 Jul 2019:
Vol. 5, no. 7, eaav3223
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aav3223
Abstract
Over 140 Mha of restoration commitments have been pledged across the 
global tropics, yet guidance is needed to identify those landscapes 
where implementation is likely to provide the greatest potential 
benefits and cost-effective outcomes. By overlaying seven recent, 
peer-reviewed spatial datasets as proxies for socioenvironmental 
benefits and feasibility of restoration, we identified restoration 
opportunities (areas with higher potential return of benefits and 
feasibility) in lowland tropical rainforest landscapes. We found 
restoration opportunities throughout the tropics. Areas scoring in the 
top 10% (i.e., restoration hotspots) are located largely within 
conservation hotspots (88%) and in countries committed to the Bonn 
Challenge (73%), a global effort to restore 350 Mha by 2030. However, 
restoration hotspots represented only a small portion (19.1%) of the Key 
Biodiversity Area network. Concentrating restoration investments in 
landscapes with high benefits and feasibility would maximize the 
potential to mitigate anthropogenic impacts and improve human well-being...
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/7/eaav3223



[informal walks through data and comments on recent studies and reports]
*Antarctic Sea Ice Tipping Point Crossed in 2014: Abrupt Climate System 
Disruption Accelerates*
Paul Beckwith on Jul 5, 2019
Up until 2014, strong winds circumventing Antarctica (and resulting 
powerful circumpolar ocean currents) were a barrier isolating the 
continent from thermal intrusions. Sea ice pulled away from coastlines 
more strongly over passing decades by increasing Southern Annular Mode 
(winds strengths) due to leftward Coriolis deflection. Sea ice extent 
trended upwards by 1% per decade. Feb 2014 had record high Antarctic sea 
ice extent. Then the barrier was breached. The average Antarctic sea ice 
extent plummeted a staggering 2 million square kilometres within 3 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buQzZDJ-918
- -
*Wall Isolating Antarctic Cold, Ice, and Snow Breached in 2014*
Paul Beckwith on Jul 5, 2019
Over the last 40 years, passive microwaves emitted from Earth's surface 
were detected both night and day and through clouds (thus in all weather 
conditions) by satellites sensors, measuring Antarctica Sea Ice extent, 
concentration, and area cycling up and down throughout yearly seasons, 
with even greater ranges of variability in the Southern Hemisphere than 
in the Arctic. Sea ice trended up over the years, reaching a maximum in 
2014, but since then has plummeted, likely indicating a tipping point 
breach of the Southern Annular Mode wall. No, Prez T cannot rebuild it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGsz4W74wHQ
- - -
*Regime Change Underway in Antarctica: Isolating Wall Breached*
Paul Beckwith on Jul 5, 2019
Since Southern Annular Mode (SAM) wind circulation; also ocean currents 
circumventing Antarctica appear to have been breached in 2014, there 
will be profound consequences. Jet streams will further criss-cross the 
Antarctica Ice Cap, mixing cold dry air with hotter humid air, 
accelerating sea-ice loss and increasing glacial ice-cap melt and ice 
sheet calving rates. South Pole warming rates will accelerate to exceed 
global averages, similar to what has played out and is ongoing in the 
Arctic. Antarctic Albedo Feedbacks will kick into gear, further 
disrupting global jet streams.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtWCrmUCclU



[not necessarily the Koch brothers]
*Rural anxieties derailed Oregon's climate plans*
Arguments over state environmental policy impacts ignore broader 
challenges to rural communities.
Carl Segerstrom Analysis July 3, 2019

As Oregon moved toward joining an international market to cap carbon 
emissions in late June, truckers, loggers and farmers chugged into the 
capitol in Salem. With horns blaring, they protested a proposed bill to 
rein in greenhouse gases, rallying behind slogans like "Timber Unity" 
and "Cap Kills Jobs."

As demonstrators gathered, Oregon's Republican state senators absconded 
to Idaho in a last-ditch effort to prevent a Senate vote on the bill. 
Political wrangling over the emissions-reducing legislation was 
punctuated by arrest threats, menacing remarks aimed at state police, 
and pledges of support for the senators from militia members. More than 
a week later, the Republicans returned -- once Democratic leaders 
declared that they didn't have enough votes to pass the climate bill.

After the climate legislation was shelved, lawmakers passed more than 
100 bills in a frenzied weekend before the legislative session ended on 
June 30. But the battle over the carbon emissions legislation revealed a 
deepening political chasm between Oregon's conservative rural areas and 
liberal population centers. Republicans held firm to their base, 
aligning with legacy industries and the rural jobs they support, rather 
than engaging in restructuring the economy to address carbon pollution. 
While the potential costs of the climate legislation took center stage, 
a deeper economic truth went unspoken -- that the issues that hamper the 
fiscal well-being of rural Oregon have less to do with environmental 
regulations than with broader market forces, from international policy 
to demographics.

Since 2018, Democrats in Colorado, New Mexico and Washington have 
followed through on promises to limit carbon emissions. For 
environmental activists, Oregon's legislation was the cream of the crop 
of the new bills, with its cap on greenhouse gases extending across all 
sectors of the economy, not just transportation or electricity generation.

But, at least initially, the climate bill would have cost rural 
Oregonians more. According to an analysis by The Oregonian, fuel taxes 
would hit wallets harder outside urban centers, where people drive 
longer distances in less fuel-efficient vehicles and lack access to 
public transportation. Higher energy costs also raised concerns about 
milling and manufacturing jobs leaving the state for friendlier economic 
conditions.

Still, Oregon's rural communities face larger forces than the proposed 
carbon pricing system. For nearly three decades, the state's 
less-populated counties have fallen behind urban centers in wages and 
employment. Lack of industry diversification, reliance on natural 
resource industries, and an aging population are some of the reasons 
why, according to a 2018 state report. International politics also play 
a role. For example, the ongoing trade war with China added uncertainty 
to an economically strapped agricultural industry, costing Northwest 
cherry growers $86 million in 2018.

Railing against environmental rules and shifting blame from big-picture 
economic forces to regulations harks back to earlier fights over 
logging, said Peter Walker, an author and University of Oregon geography 
professor. In the 1980s, before spotted owl regulations cut old-growth 
logging in federal forests, the state's timber industry had already lost 
nearly one in five jobs, due to a recession, technological changes and 
increased competition from other markets. "The flashpoint issues -- 
spotted owls and climate bills -- belie the bigger economic forces that 
shape the state's economy," he said.

As the Republican party harped on the costs of the proposed climate 
legislation, proponents of the bill countered that it would benefit 
rural Oregon. An analysis conducted by University of California Berkeley 
economists, for example, estimated that it would create 50,000 jobs by 
2050, and that rural areas would get a larger share of those jobs.

But a job created isn't the same as a job lost. Any upheavals in the job 
market as workers shift from one industry to another -- from timber 
harvesting to solar installation, say -- take a toll on workers' 
self-confidence and the social networks they rely on. "Even for people 
who get re-employed quickly, the change can have big impacts," said 
Jennie Brand, a sociology professor at University of California Los Angeles.

Regardless of government interventions, the economy and climate are both 
changing. In Oregon, plans for transitioning to a less 
fossil-fuel-intensive economy have been pushed down the line as 
politicians wrestle over the details. In a press conference the day 
after the legislative session ended, Democratic Gov. Kate Brown pledged 
to spend more time traveling the state and listening to people's 
concerns, even as she explores executive actions to curb the state's 
emissions.

Former Republican Rep. Lane Shetterly, who for seven years represented a 
timber district in the Willamette Valley and Coast Range and is the 
current board president for the nonprofit Oregon Environmental Council, 
said climate change isn't a rural or urban issue. People across the 
state feel its impacts, and must rally around solutions. "Climate change 
won't go away," he said. "And the need to address it won't go away."

Carl Segerstrom is an assistant editor at High Country News, covering 
Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies from Spokane, 
Washington. Email him at carls at hcn.org or submit a letter to the editor
https://www.hcn.org/articles/climate-change-rural-anxieties-derailed-oregons-climate-plans?utm_source=wcn1&utm_medium=email 




*This Day in Climate History - July 6, 2012 - from D.R. Tucker*
July 6, 2012: In the Spokane, Washington Spokesman-Review, "Democracy 
Now!" host Amy Goodman writes:

    "Beyond the borders of wealthy countries like the United States, in
    developing countries where most people in the world live, the
    impacts of climate change are much more deadly, from the growing
    desertification of Africa to the threats of rising sea levels and
    the submersion of small island nations.

    "The U.S. news media have a critical role to play in educating the
    public about climate change. Imagine if just half the times that
    they flash 'Extreme Weather' across our TV screens, they alternated
    with 'Global Warming.' This Independence Day holiday week might just
    be the beginning of people demanding the push to wean ourselves off
    fossil fuels and pursue a sane course toward sustainable energy
    independence."

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/jul/06/amy-goodman-climate-change-signs-abound/
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/

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