[TheClimate.Vote] June 18, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Jun 18 08:47:54 EDT 2019
/June 18, 2019/
[Political solutions]
*Jay Inslee's 2020 plan: Become president, save the planet*
"My wife and I had a discussion about this," Inslee, 68, said about his
decision to run for president on a climate platform. "We wanted to be
able to say we did everything we could. And we realize how diminished
and degraded and despoiled my grandchildren's lives will be if we don't
get a president in the next term to make it job number one."
- - -
Inslee supports the U.S. Senate abolishing the filibuster and theorizes
that progressives can secure lasting victories with just 50% majorities.
"We've never actually gone backwards once we've embraced any degree of
social change, from Social Security, to Medicare, to Obamacare, to civil
rights, to gay marriage equality," Inslee said. "Once you win, you only
have to win once."
But he worries that other Democratic candidates, who lack his lifetime
of effort, are treating the issue as one policy battle among many.
"You can't totally restructure the United States economy to be a clean
economy by mid-century by putting it on your to-do list," Inslee said.
"This has to be the central defining mobilizing tenet and organizing
principle of your entire administration.
"And I am convinced to a moral certainty," he said, "that I'm the only
candidate who has the fire in the belly to actually do it."
https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-2020-jay-inslee-presidential-campaign-climate-change-20190617-story.html
[Follow the metaphor of mortgage money]
*Engineering climate debt: temperature overshoot and peak-shaving as
risky subprime mortgage lending*
Shinichiro Asayama ORCID Icon & Mike Hulme ORCID Icon
ABSTRACT
Despite the ambitious temperature goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement,
the pace of reducing global CO2 emissions remains sluggish. This
creates conditions in which the idea of temperature 'overshoot and
peak-shaving' is emerging as a possible strategy to meet the Paris
goal. An overshoot and peak-shaving scenario rests upon the
'temporary' use of speculative *solar radiation management (SRM)*
technologies combined with large-scale *carbon dioxide removal
(CDR).* Whilst some view optimistically the strategic
interdependence between SRM and CDR, we argue that this strategy
comes with a risk of escalating 'climate debt'. We explain our
position using the logic of debt and the analogy of subprime
mortgage lending. In overshoot and peak-shaving scenarios, the role
of CDR and SRM is to compensate for delayed mitigation, placing the
world in a double debt: 'emissions debt' and 'temperature debt'.
Analogously, this can be understood as a combination of 'subprime
mortgage' (i.e. large-scale CDR) and 'home-equity-line-of-credit'
(i.e. temporary SRM). With this analogy, we draw some important
lessons from the 2007-2009 US subprime mortgage crisis. The analogy
signals that the efficacy of temporary SRM cannot be evaluated in
isolation of the feasibility of large-scale CDR and that the failure
of the overshoot promise will lead to prolonged peak-shaving,
masking an ever-rising climate debt. Overshoot and peak-shaving
scenarios should not be presented as a secured feasible investment,
but rather as a high-risk speculation betting on insecure promises.
Obscuring the riskiness of such scenarios is a precipitous step
towards escalating a climate debt crisis.
Key policy insights
-- The slow progress of mitigation increases the attraction of an
'overshoot and peak-shaving' scenario which combines temporary SRM with
large-scale CDR
-- Following the logic of debt, the role of CDR and SRM in this scenario
is to compensate for delayed mitigation, creating a double debt of CO2
emissions and global temperature
-- Using the analogy of subprime lending, this strategy can be seen as
offering a combination of subprime mortgage and open-ended 'line-of-credit'
-- Because the 'success' of peak-shaving by temporary SRM hinges
critically on the overshoot promise of large-scale CDR, SRM and CDR
should not be discussed separately...
more at -
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2019.1623165?scroll=top&needAccess=true
- - -
[More Climate Policy Initatives]
*CLIMATE FINANCE*
Limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5Celsius while achieving
sustainable development will require trillions in new investments, and a
deliberate shift toward low-carbon, climate-resilient economic models.
https://climatepolicyinitiative.org/climate-finance/
[if you build it, they will come -- [because fossil fuels are over-used
in that region]
*Finnmark gets world's most advanced EV charging network*
17 high-power 150 kW chargers and eight fast chargers will make it
possible for practically all kinds of electric cars to drive anywhere in
Norway's northernmost region, even in freezing cold winter...
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/travel/2019/06/finnmark-gets-worlds-most-advanced-ev-charging-network
- - -
[see more videos on electric cars]
In this channel you will find tech videos, reviews, road trips, tests
and other useful information about Tesla Model X. I will also
occasionally test Tesla Model S and other smaller EVs such as BMW i3,
Nissan Leaf and similar.
https://www.youtube.com/user/bjornnyland/featured
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG1QcV31eoSaX4rE8avQL4A
[stay cool when facing heat]
*CLIMATE'S ROLE IN ARMED CONFLICT WILL LIKELY INCREASE*
JUNE 13TH, 2019
POSTED BY DEVON RYAN-STANFORD
Intensifying climate change will increase the future risk of violent
armed conflict within countries, according to a new study.
Synthesizing views across experts, the study in Nature estimates climate
has influenced between 3 percent and 20 percent of armed conflict risk
over the last century and that the influence will likely increase
dramatically.
In a scenario with 4 degrees Celsius of warming (approximately the path
we're on if societies do not substantially reduce emissions of
heat-trapping gases), the influence of climate on conflicts would
increase more than five times, leaping to a 26 percent chance of a
substantial increase in conflict risk, according to the study.
Even in a scenario of 2 degrees Celsius of warming beyond preindustrial
levels--the stated goal of the Paris Climate Agreement--the influence of
climate on conflicts would more than double, rising to a 13 percent chance.
"Appreciating the role of climate change and its security impacts is
important not only for understanding the social costs of our continuing
heat-trapping emissions, but for prioritizing responses, which could
include aid and cooperation," says Katharine Mach, director of the
Stanford Environment Assessment Facility and the study's lead author.
Climate change-driven extreme weather and related disasters can damage
economies, lower farming and livestock production, and intensify
inequality among social groups. These factors, when combined with other
drivers of conflict, may increase risks of violence.
"Knowing whether environmental or climatic changes are important for
explaining conflict has implications for what we can do to reduce the
likelihood of future conflict, as well as for how to make well-informed
decisions about how aggressively we should mitigate future climate
change," says Marshall Burke, assistant professor of earth system
science and a coauthor of the study.
NO PRECEDENT
Researchers disagree intensely as to whether climate plays a role in
triggering civil wars and other armed conflicts. To better understand
the impact of climate, the analysis involved interviews with and debates
among experts in political science, environmental science, economics,
and other fields who have come to different conclusions on climate's
influence on conflict in the past.
The experts, who also served as coauthors of the study, agree that
climate has affected organized armed conflict in recent decades.
However, they make clear that other factors, such as low socioeconomic
development, the strength of government, inequalities in societies, and
a recent history of violent conflict have a much heavier impact on
conflict within countries.
The researchers don't fully understand how climate affects conflict and
under what conditions. The consequences of future climate change will
likely be different from historical climate disruptions because
societies will be forced to grapple with unprecedented conditions that
go beyond known experience and what they may be capable of adapting to.
"Historically, levels of armed conflict over time have been heavily
influenced by shocks to, and changes in, international relations among
states and in their domestic political systems," says James Fearon,
professor of political science and coauthor of the study.
"It is quite likely that over this century, unprecedented climate change
is going to have significant impacts on both, but it is extremely hard
to anticipate whether the political changes related to climate change
will have big effects on armed conflict in turn. So I think putting
nontrivial weight on significant climate effects on conflict is reasonable."
HOW TO PREPARE?
Reducing conflict risk and preparing for a changing climate can be a
win-win approach. The study explains that adaptation strategies, such as
crop insurance, post-harvest storage, training services, and other
measures, can increase food security and diversify economic
opportunities, thereby reducing potential climate-conflict linkages.
Peacekeeping, conflict mediation, and post-conflict aid operations could
incorporate climate into their risk reduction strategies by looking at
ways climatic hazards may exacerbate violent conflict in the future.
However, the researchers make clear there is a need to increase
understanding of these strategies' effectiveness and potential for
adverse side effects. For example, food export bans following crop
failures can increase instability elsewhere.
"Understanding the multifaceted ways that climate may interact with
known drivers of conflict is really critical for putting investments in
the right place," Mach says.
Additional coauthors are from Stanford; the University of Exeter; the
Peace Research Institute Oslo; the Norwegian University of Science and
Technology; the National Bureau of Economic Research; the University of
Denver; the University of Antwerp; Lancaster University; the University
of Colorado Boulder; the College of William & Mary; the University of
Hamburg; and Uppsala University.
The Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Stanford Woods Institute for
the Environment, the European Research Council, the German Science
Foundation, and the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental
Research supported the work.
Source: Stanford University
Original Study DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6
https://www.futurity.org/armed-conflict-climate-change-2082152-2/
[Columbia Law School - Center for Climate Change Law]
*State Department Scientist Prevented from Submitting Written Testimony
to Congress*
Date: June 2019
Agency: Federal, State Department, White House
Explanation: Government Censorship
Scientist: Climate
Rod Schoonover, a senior scientist at the U.S. Department of State, was
reportedly prevented from submitting written testimony on the threats
posed by climate change to the House Intelligence Committee. Mr.
Schoonover's testimony warned that "[a]bsent extensive mitigation
factors or events, [there are] few plausible future scenarios where
significant -- possibly catastrophic -- hard does not arise from the
compounded effects of climate change." That characterization was
criticized by White House officials, including members of the National
Security Council (NSC), who complained that Mr. Schoonover's testimony
was "not objective" and included "lots of climate alarm propaganda that
is not science at all." NSC senior director, William Happer, was
particularly critical of the testimony, describing it as "propaganda . .
. for the scientifically illiterate."
According to media reports, following the NSC's criticism, the White
House Office of Legislative affairs directed Mr. Schoonover not to
submit the testimony because it did not "jibe" with the administration's
position on climate change.
http://columbiaclimatelaw.com/silencing-science-tracker/state-department-scientist-prevented-from-submitting-written-testimony-to-congress
- - -
[read the original document]
*Testimony from Rod Schoonover: 'The National Security Implications of
Climate Change'*
Updated Jun 8, 2019 at 7:45 AM
White House officials barred a State Department intelligence agency from
submitting this written testimony to the House Intelligence Committee
this week. The move came after State officials refused to excise the
documentc's references to federal scientific findings on climate change.
Here is the complete written statement:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/the-national-security-implications-of-climate-change/d5977183-15d9-45eb-a011-d4c701b02594/?utm_term=.b673f48d359c
Don't see the document?
https://games-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/23db9731-209c-44c2-ab0f-1db57d157f51/note/7acf47a1-8ec4-4e76-a93e-2d4dba26cb28.pdf#page=1
to download the pdf.
[The Maya]
*Misreading the story of climate change and the Maya*
Kenneth Seligson - Assistant Professor of Anthropology, California State
University,
Carbon dioxide concentrations in Earth's atmosphere have reached 415
parts per million - a level that last occurred more than three million
years ago, long before the evolution of humans. This news adds to
growing concern that climate change will likely wreak serious damage on
our planet in the coming decades.
While Earth has not been this warm in human history, we can learn about
coping with climate change by looking to the Classic Maya civilization
that thrived between A.D. 250-950 in Eastern Mesoamerica, the region
that is now Guatemala, Belize, Eastern Mexico, and parts of El Salvador
and Honduras.
Many people believe that the ancient Maya civilization ended when it
mysteriously "collapsed." And it is true that the Maya faced many
climate change challenges, including extreme droughts that ultimately
contributed to the breakdown of their large Classic Period city-states.
However, the Maya did not disappear: Over 6 million Maya people live
mainly in Eastern Mesoamerica today. What's more, based on my own
research in the Northern Yucatan Peninsula and work by my colleagues
throughout the broader Maya region, I believe Maya communities' ability
to adapt their resource conservation practices played a crucial role in
allowing them to survive for as long as they did. Instead of focusing on
the final stages of Classic Maya civilization, society can learn from
the practices that enabled it to survive for nearly 700 years as we
consider the effects of climate change today.
- --
All societies need to be flexible
Many observers have drawn parallels between disastrous climate shifts in
the past and the fate of modern society. I believe this perspective is
too simplistic. Current scientific understanding of climate change is
not perfect, but modern societies clearly know a lot about what is
happening and what needs to be done to avoid catastrophic warming.
However, they also require the will to tackle critical threats. The
Classic Maya proactively addressed climate challenges by adapting their
ecological practices to a changing environment. This helped many
communities survive for centuries through waves of intense drought.
Their experience, and the persistence of other ancient civilizations,
shows the importance of knowledge, planning and structural flexibility.
There also is an important difference between natural climate stresses
on ancient societies and the human-induced challenge we face today:
Modern humans can have a far greater impact on the survival of future
generations. The Maya could only react to climatic conditions, but we
know how to address the causes of climate change. The challenge is
choosing to do so.
https://theconversation.com/misreading-the-story-of-climate-change-and-the-maya-113829
[article from 2017]
What If... Comment & Analysis Prediction
*How Western civilisation could collapse*
Some possible precipitating factors are already in place. How the West
reacts to them will determine the world's future, says Rachel Nuwer.
Studying the demise of historic civilisations can tell us how much risk
we face today, says collapse expert Luke Kemp. Worryingly, the signs are
worsening.
By Rachel Nuwer - 18 April 2017
The political economist Benjamin Friedman once compared modern Western
society to a stable bicycle whose wheels are kept spinning by economic
growth. Should that forward-propelling motion slow or cease, the pillars
that define our society - democracy, individual liberties, social
tolerance and more - would begin to teeter. Our world would become an
increasingly ugly place, one defined by a scramble over limited
resources and a rejection of anyone outside of our immediate group.
Should we find no way to get the wheels back in motion, we'd eventually
face total societal collapse.
Such collapses have occurred many times in human history, and no
civilisation, no matter how seemingly great, is immune to the
vulnerabilities that may lead a society to its end. Regardless of how
well things are going in the present moment, the situation can always
change. Putting aside species-ending events like an asteroid strike,
nuclear winter or deadly pandemic, history tells us that it's usually a
plethora of factors that contribute to collapse. What are they, and
which, if any, have already begun to surface? It should come as no
surprise that humanity is currently on an unsustainable and uncertain
path - but just how close are we to reaching the point of no return?
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20170418-how-western-civilisation-could-collapse
- - -
[Difficult to consider]
*Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?*
Studying the demise of historic civilisations can tell us how much risk
we face today, says collapse expert Luke Kemp. Worryingly, the signs are
worsening.
By Luke Kemp - 19 February 2019
- - -
...The collapse of our civilisation is not inevitable. History suggests
it is likely, but we have the unique advantage of being able to learn
from the wreckages of societies past.
We know what needs to be done: emissions can be reduced, inequalities
levelled, environmental degradation reversed, innovation unleashed and
economies diversified. The policy proposals are there. Only the
political will is lacking. We can also invest in recovery. There are
already well-developed ideas for improving the ability of food and
knowledge systems to be recuperated after catastrophe. Avoiding the
creation of dangerous and widely-accessible technologies is also
critical. Such steps will lessen the chance of a future collapse
becoming irreversible.
We will only march into collapse if we advance blindly. We are only
doomed if we are unwilling to listen to the past.
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
*This Day in Climate History - June 18, - from D.R. Tucker*
June 18, 2005: Investigative journalist Brad Friedman interviews White
House whistleblower Rick Piltz regarding the Bush Administration's
assault on science. [audio recording]
http://www.bradshow.com/Archives/BradShow_061805_Hour1_24k.mp3 [starts
about 6 minutes in]
http://www.bradshow.com/Archives/BradShow_061805_Hour4_24k.mp3
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