[TheClimate.Vote] May 1, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Wed May 1 10:04:47 EDT 2019

/May 1 , 2019/

[Evaluate presidential candidates - thanks to 350.org]
*The 2020 Climate Test*
Our next president needs to be a real climate leader. That means 
supporting a Green New Deal to create millions of good jobs 
transitioning to the 100% renewable energy-powered economy we need, 
opposing climate-wrecking fossil fuel projects, and refusing to take big 
polluters' money. See where all the candidates stand--then, take action.
No one is getting an A+ on this climate test just for admitting that the 
climate crisis is happening. Real climate leadership means real 
commitment to bold action. We're grading the candidates on these 3 
questions:

    - *The Green New Deal:* Have they voted for or publicly supported a
    Green New Deal, as defined by the resolutions introduced by Rep.
    Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey?
    - *The Keep it in the Ground Test*: Climate science demands we
    rapidly transition away from fossil fuels. Have they taken actions
    to keep fossil fuels in the ground by opposing new coal, oil, and
    gas projects?
    - *The No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge*: Have they signed the pledge to
    refuse money from oil, coal, and gas corporations?

https://350action.org/2020-tracker/#scorecard

[Too late to the table? ]
*In a Switch, Some Republicans Start Citing Climate Change as Driving 
Their Policies*
By Lisa Friedman - April 30, 2019
WASHINGTON -- When John Barrasso, a Republican from oil and uranium-rich 
Wyoming who has spent years blocking climate change legislation, 
introduced a bill this year to promote nuclear energy, he added a twist: 
a desire to tackle global warming.

Mr. Barrasso's remarks -- "If we are serious about climate change, we 
must be serious about expanding our use of nuclear energy" -- were 
hardly a clarion call to action. Still they were highly unusual for the 
lawmaker who, despite decades of support for nuclear power and other 
policies that would reduce planet-warming emissions, has until recently 
avoided talking about them in the context of climate change.

The comments represent an important shift among Republicans in Congress. 
Driven by polls showing that voters in both parties -- particularly 
younger Americans -- are increasingly concerned about a warming planet, 
and prodded by the new Democratic majority in the House shining a 
spotlight on the issue, a growing number of Republicans are now openly 
discussing climate change and proposing what they call conservative 
solutions.

"Denying the basic existence of climate change is no longer a credible 
position," said Whit Ayers, a Republican political consultant, pointing 
out the growing climate concern among millennials as well as centrist 
voters -- two groups the G.O.P. will need in the future...
- - -
In recent weeks Senator John Cornyn of Texas -- an oil state where 
climate denial runs deep -- said he is helping write legislation to 
reduce emissions through "energy innovation." Senator Lamar Alexander of 
Tennessee said he wants to create a "Manhattan Project" for clean energy 
funding. Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska is exploring bipartisan plans 
to curb emissions from her position as chair of the Senate Committee on 
Energy and Natural Resources. And Representative Matthew Gaetz of 
Florida, who once called to abolish the Environmental Protection Agency, 
introduced legislation to tackle climate change by encouraging nuclear 
energy and hydropower, as well as "carbon capture" technology, which 
aims to pull planet-warming carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere...
- - -
Democrats, for their part, said they are skeptical of new calls for 
compromise. Senator Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts, who sponsored the 
Green New Deal along with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New 
York, accused Republicans of rebranding "tired and inadequate proposals 
from the past" like nuclear and carbon-capture funding.

"We'll know the Republicans are sincere when they step forward for 
permanent tax breaks for wind and solar and electric vehicles and 
battery technologies and clean building technologies. Because we can 
deploy those technologies right now. But they only continue to talk 
about research on technologies that will not be deployed for a decade," 
Mr. Markey said.

Still, the handful of Republicans who have long looked for ways to 
tackle the rise of planet-warming emissions urged Democrats to seize the 
opportunity to find at least some common ground.

"Republicans who used to deny climate change as a real problem just to 
avoid the issue are now confronting it," said Carlos Curbelo, a 
Republican carbon tax supporter who lost his Florida House seat last 
year. "It's still early, but I think it's important to recognize that 
clearly it's now a debate about solutions."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/climate/republicans-climate-change-policies.html

[Of course]
*Renewable energy to outpace coal for first time ever in US*
Phil Dzikiy - - Apr. 30th 2019
Another tipping point in energy seems to be on the horizon, as renewable 
energy in the US is expected to surpass coal in electricity generation 
for the first time this month.

Renewables (including hydro, solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal) are 
projected to generate more electricity than coal-fired plants in April, 
according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis 
(IEFFA). This would be a first.
- -
So while coal fades away, the next frontier will see renewables taking 
on natural gas, and perhaps even nuclear, which has re-entered the 
discussion in some circles recently as a way to provide more energy 
while cutting back emissions. (See this USA Today article today about 
some Democratic presidential candidates showing "openness" to expanding 
nuclear power.)
https://electrek.co/2019/04/30/renewable-energy-coal-us/

[Permafrost risk]
*Rapid Permafrost Thaw Unrecognized Threat to Landscape, Global Warming 
Researcher Warns*
UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH  30 APRIL 2019
A "sleeping giant" hidden in permafrost soils in Canada and other 
northern regions worldwide will have important consequences for global 
warming, says a new report led by University of Guelph scientist Merritt 
Turetsky.

Scientists have long studied how gradual permafrost thaw occurring over 
decades in centimetres of surface soils will influence carbon release to 
the atmosphere. But Turetsky and an international team of researchers 
are looking at something very different: rapid collapse of permafrost 
that can transform the landscape in mere months through subsidence, 
flooding and landslides.

"We are watching this sleeping giant wake up right in front of our 
eyes," said Turetsky, who holds the Canada Research Chair in Integrative 
Ecology.

The team discusses the importance of abrupt thaw for carbon release 
estimates, northern ways of living and climate policy in a commentary in 
the May 2 issue of Nature. The researchers put together results from 
abrupt thaw studies from a range of environments across the permafrost 
zone to estimate the overall effect.
- - -
The researchers say rapid permafrost collapse will have local, national 
and international effects, from altering traditional travel and hunting 
patterns in the North, to causing costly infrastructure damage to roads 
and rail lines, to making it even more difficult to meet emission 
targets intended to limit global warming.

Despite threats to northern permafrost and climate, Turetsky remains 
optimistic.

"If we can limit human emissions, we can still curb the most dangerous 
consequences of climate warming.  Our window for action is getting 
narrow, but we still have it and can make changes to save the Arctic as 
we know it, and the Earth's climate along with it."

Ted Schuur, professor at Northern Arizona University, said, "Synthesis 
science designed to bring ideas and people together to create new 
knowledge is critical for understanding abrupt thaw impacts across the 
permafrost region at the scale where it affects climate."
https://news.uoguelph.ca/2019/04/rapid-permafrost-thaw-unrecognized-threat-to-northern-landscape-global-warming-researcher-warns/

[wait, what does this mean?]
*From Apples to Popcorn, Climate Change Is Altering the Foods America Grows*
In every region, farmers and scientists are trying to adapt an array of 
crops to warmer temperatures, invasive pests, erratic weather and 
earlier growing seasons.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/dining/farming-climate-change.html

[worthy 8 min listen]
*Climate scientist explains Extinction Rebellion*
ClimateAdam
Published on Apr 24, 2019
Extinction Rebellion have been causing disruption in the name of 
preventing catastrophic climate change. But what are the organisation's 
aims? And how do they compare to our understanding of global warming?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NY2RD2IUOM4

[Another copy of the recent BBC documentary. Important to know that 42 C 
= 107.6 F]
*Climate Change - The Facts (by Sir David Attenborough)*
DIY & STUFF - Published on Apr 21, 2019
This BBC documentary is very well made, covers most of the topic and is 
narrated by Sir David Attenborough, so it's worth watching to the end.
I suppose i kinda stole it, but on the other hand, i disabled all kinds 
of monetization on this video, so there is no profit for me from it. [he 
says]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVnsxUt1EHY

[more found documents]
[*Found documents about climate change coverup*]
Clmate Investigations Center...did about a year of work gathering all 
the documents we could find and scan on the Global Climate Coalition 
from friends' basements and dusty boxes and some deep Googling.

There are numerous documents among the thousands of pages we have 
annotated here that have never been on the internet before last week - 
internal meeting notes, strategy documents, budgets, membership lists, etc.

Our write up on Climate Investigations Center:
https://climateinvestigations.org/global-climate-coalition-industry-climate-denial/

The docs themselves are uploaded on DocumentCloud and searchable via
www.ClimateFiles.com

http://www.climatefiles.com/?s=&category_name=global-climate-coalition-collection
click the older and newer posts arrows to navigate the 250+ documents

Early reporting by Climate Liability News
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/04/25/gcc-global-climate-coalition-history/
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/04/25/global-climate-coalition-gcc-un-climate-change-ipcc/
https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/04/25/gcc-global-climate-coalition-un-fossil-fuels/

and DeSmogBlog
https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/04/25/global-climate-coalition-documents-secretive-fossil-fuel-lobby-un-programs
https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/04/24/how-big-oil-tried-failed-capture-un-intergovernmental-panel-climate-change

[From DesdemonaDespair]
*Greenland ice sheet melting six times faster than in the 1980s - "It is 
a bit scary to see how fast it is changing"*
Greenland's ice sheet is melting six times faster than it was in the 
1980s. And all that meltwater is directly raising sea levels...
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/04/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-six-times-faster-than-in-the-1980s-it-is-a-bit-scary-to-see-how-fast-it-is-changing.html

[Three guys in an audio chat show ]
*Episode 8 - Mosquito-Flavored Popcorn, or What Climate Scientists Are 
Getting Wrong (April 24, 2019)*
Did you know that we can lose half our food supply and it won't matter? 
That's because agriculture is only 3% of GDP, so there's no need to 
worry about the effects of climate change on farming. Or so says the 
latest genius to win the Nobel Prize in economics. This "logic" is 
pretty darn disturbing on its own, but what happens when such muddled 
thinking comes to infest climate models? Besides causing Jason, Asher, 
and Rob to lose their minds (and their cool), it can lead to unrealistic 
optimism surrounding the Green New Deal and other worthwhile policies 
for dealing with climate change. Well, maybe we can use cryptocurrencies 
to purchase information about food for our virtual bellies when we run 
into problems on the farm.
*Episode 8 Notes*
Jason Bradford's uh-oh moment when it comes to lack of feedback in 
IPCC's climate models
The research group Jason was part of when he read the IPCC report (ABERG)
Economic failings and a critique of William Nordhaus by environmentalist 
Rex Weyler
Takedown of William Nordhaus by economist Jason Hickel
John de Graaf's measured, realistic support for the Green New Deal
Good look at the limits to growth in the context of the Green New Deal
Donella Meadows's classic book, Thinking in Systems: a Primer
Herman Daly's book Ecological Economics and Sustainable Development 
(available online)
Current IPCC report section on future changes, risks, and adaptation
RCP = Representative Concentration Pathways
A good write-up of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
David Hughes and the American Geophysical Union meeting looking at 
possible geological limitations to fossil fuel reserves
Justin Ritchie on coal limitations compared to IPCC scenarios
Richard Heinberg and David Fridley's review of a low-energy-demand 
scenario without negative emissions technologies for climate modeling
Kevin Anderson, the climate scientist who could be elected the mayor of 
Crazy Town, as he sees right through the B.S.
https://www.postcarbon.org/crazytown/

[stranding and abandoning risks]
*U.S. Pipeline Boom Could End In Crisis*
By Irina Slav - Apr 29, 2019, 2:00 PM CDT
An oil and gas building spree in the United States might have a serious 
boomerang effect that could hit the industry as hard as a changing 
fundamentals landscape hit the coal industry in the 2010s, a report from 
Global Energy Monitor has warned.

According to the report, there is US$232.5 billion worth of new oil and 
gas pipelines being planned and built right now in North America, with 
most of this in the United States. This expansion, however, does not 
rely on an increase in domestic demand for oil and gas. It relies almost 
exclusively on demand growth in Asia, much like the coal expansion in 
the 2010s. That, however, went awry, decimating the coal industry.

The factors that could ruin the pipeline expansion in the United States 
include demand patterns in that key Asian market everyone is targeting 
as well as changing attitudes--and legislation--concerning climate 
change and the oil and gas industry.

Asia, and particularly China and India, the continent's largest 
economies, have become the top target market for all commodity 
industries, but the Asian markets are particularly important for the 
energy industry. Demand for fossil fuels in Europe, for example, is 
falling steadily under the pressure of climate change-related 
legislation and changing climate attitudes.

Even in the United States, the EIA has projected a slowdown in oil and 
gas demand growth, which, according to Global Energy Monitor, means the 
domestic market would not be able to take all the additional oil and gas 
coming in from the shale plays that are driving the overall growth in 
fossil fuel production. In China and India, conversely, energy demand, 
including oil and gas demand, is on the rise. For now.

Referring to a term coined by John Maynard Keynes--"animal spirits"--the 
report explains the ambitious expansion plans of energy companies in the 
U.S. with a misleading sense of optimism that the current supply and 
demand dynamics will continue. In other words, pipeline builders falsely 
believe Asian markets will continue to be as thirsty for U.S. oil and 
gas--especially gas--as they are now. This, according to Global Energy 
Monitor, is not the case.

Natural gas supply from the Middle East, for one, is on the rise and 
this rise will hit 65 percent between 2017 and 2040, according to the 
IEA. What's more, China's own domestic production of natural gas is set 
for a jump of 142 percent by 2040.  A strong increase in gas production 
is expected in Africa and South America as well, with the global total 
rise at 46 percent, versus 36 percent in the United States. In other 
words, the U.S. is by far not the only place where gas production is on 
the rise, which means a lot more intense competition in the coming decades.

Then there is the climate change factor that is increasingly likely to 
begin pressuring demand for oil and gas in all markets. As one of the 
authors of the report put it in an interview with Engineering and 
Technology, "The IPCC has made it clear that emissions in the oil and 
gas sector need to level out quickly and significantly decline in the 
next decade. That is incompatible with investments in more oil and gas 
infrastructure."

While it remains doubtful how successful governments' efforts in the 
emission-cutting respect will be, the fact remains that such efforts are 
being made, including in that most desirable of all Asian market where 
reducing oil and gas consumption is not just a question of emissions 
reduction, but of reducing the energy import bill.

It seems the risk comes from the belief that the status quo will 
continue indefinitely. This, however, is not the case and investors 
should think twice before taking part in new pipeline construction, Ted 
Nace, executive director of Global Energy Monitor said.

"The oil and gas industry is shaped by the familiar patterns of the 
boom/bust cycles that characterise extraction," he told Engineering and 
Technology. "It's easy to shift drilling rigs in and out of deployment. 
But midstream infrastructure is fundamentally different. Investments are 
for 40 to 50 years. The industry does not seem to realise how quickly 
the landscape is shifting as costs for renewables and storage fall very 
rapidly."
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Pipeline-Boom-Could-End-In-Crisis.html

*This Day in Climate History - May 1, 1998 - from D.R. Tucker*
May 1, 1998: The AP reports on a bogus petition allegedly claiming that 
15,000 scientists reject the evidence of human-caused climate change.
http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?slug=2748308&date=19980501
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py2XVILHUjQ
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/

/Archive of Daily Global Warming News 
<https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html> 
/
https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote

/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe 
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request> 
to news digest./

*** Privacy and Security:*This is a text-only mailing that carries no 
images which may originate from remote servers. Text-only messages 
provide greater privacy to the receiver and sender.
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain must be used for democratic 
and election purposes and cannot be used for commercial purposes.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote 
<mailto:contact at theclimate.vote> with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe, 
subject: unsubscribe
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at 
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for 
http://TheClimate.Vote <http://TheClimate.Vote/> delivering succinct 
information for citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List 
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously restricted to 
this mailing list.