[TheClimate.Vote] May 17, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Fri May 17 12:37:52 EDT 2019

/May 17, 2019/

[Bloomberg opinion]
*Take Note, Capitalists: Green Energy Is Where the Growth Is*
The fossil fuel industry is suffering despite President Trump's fandom.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-15/green-energy-is-where-the-growth-is-capitalists

[politicians wimpy]
*The disaster aid fight shows just how unprepared Congress is to deal 
with the effects of climate change*
Right now, combatting natural disasters is much more focused on relief 
than prevention.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/5/16/18617697/disaster-aid-senate-puerto-rico-trump-climate-change
- -
[FiveThirtyEight]
*Disaster Politics Can Get In The Way Of Disaster Preparedness*
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/disaster-politics-can-get-in-the-way-of-disaster-preparedness/

[keep a close eye on global weather reports ]
*Simultaneous heatwaves caused by anthropogenic climate change*
Date: April 10, 2019
Source: ETH Zurich
Summary: Without the climate change caused by human activity, 
simultaneous heatwaves would not have hit such a large area as they did 
last summer.

Many people will remember last summer -- not only in Switzerland, but 
also in large swathes across the rest of Europe, as well as in North 
America and Asia. Multiple places around the world experienced heat so 
severe that people died of heatstroke, power generation had to be 
curtailed, rails and roads started to melt, and forests went up in 
flames. What was truly sobering about this heatwave was that it affected 
not only one area, such as the Mediterranean region, but several across 
the temperate zones and the Arctic simultaneously.

ETH researchers have concluded that the only explanation of why heat 
affected so many areas over several months is anthropogenic climate 
change. These are the findings of the recent study that ETH climate 
researcher Martha Vogel presented today at the European Geosciences 
Union press conference in Vienna. The paper resulting from this study is 
currently in review for an academic publication.

Analysing models and observations

In the study, Vogel, a member of ETH Professor Sonia Seneviratne's team, 
looked at the areas of the Northern Hemisphere north of the 30th 
latitude that experienced extreme heat simultaneously from May to July 
2018. She and her fellow researchers concentrated on key agricultural 
regions and densely populated areas. In addition they looked into how 
large-scale heatwaves are projected to change as a consequence of global 
warming.

To explore these phenomena, the researchers analysed observation-based 
data from 1958 to 2018. They investigated state-of-the-art model 
simulations to project the geographic extent that heatwaves could reach 
by the end of the century if temperatures continue to climb.

Massive increase in the areas affected by intense heat

An evaluation of the data from last year's hot summer reveals that, on 
an average day from May to July, 22 percent of agricultural land and 
populated areas in the Northern Hemisphere were simultaneously hit by 
extremely high temperatures. The heatwave affected at least 17 
countries, from Canada and the United States to Russia, Japan and South 
Korea.

By studying the measurement data, the researchers realised that such 
large-scale heatwaves first appeared in the northern hemisphere in 2010, 
then in 2012, and again in 2018. Prior to 2010, however, the researchers 
did not find any instances of such large areas being affected 
simultaneously by heat.

Widespread heat extremes ever more likely

Model calculations confirm this trend. As the earth grows warmer, 
widespread heat extremes become more and more likely. According to model 
projections, every degree of global warming will cause the area of land 
in key agricultural regions or densely populated areas in the Northern 
Hemisphere that is simultaneously affected by extreme heat to grow by 16 
percent. Should global temperatures rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above 
pre-industrial levels, then one-quarter of the northern hemisphere will 
experience a summer as hot as the summer of 2018 every two out of three 
years If global warming reaches 2 degrees, the probability of such a 
period of extreme heat rises to almost 100 percent. In other words, 
every year extreme heat will affect an area just as large as the 2018 
heatwave did.

"Without the climate change that can be explained by human activity, we 
wouldn't have such a large area being simultaneously affected by heat as 
we did in 2018," says Vogel. She is alarmed by the prospect of extreme 
heat hitting an area as large as it did in 2018 every year if global 
temperatures rise by 2 degrees: "If in future more and more key 
agricultural regions and densely populated areas are affected by 
simultaneous heatwaves, this would have severe consequences."...
more at - https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190410112744.htm
- -- - - -
**Show by Radio Ecoshock, reposted under CC License. Episode details at 
https://www.ecoshock.org/2019/05/smash-the-carbon-nightmare.html
Stop Fossil Fuels researches and disseminates effective strategies and 
tactics to halt fossil fuel combustion as fast as possible. Learn more 
at https://stopfossilfuels.org
-- 
According to new research led by Dr. Vogel, the first large-scale 
multi-continental heatwave show up in the records in 2010. In that year 
Russian, one of the world's largest wheat exporters, suffered so much 
crop loss they cancelled grain exports. Social scientists say the 
resulting rising grain (and bread) prices was one cause of the "Arab 
Spring" uprisings a year later...
- -
When I became aware of a warming world in 1990, I pictured a gradually 
warming world. That didn't sound too bad. This new science suggests we 
will be hit be pop-up extreme heat events instead, hitting many places 
at once. That is already happening. It is hard on animals (bats dropping 
dead out of trees in Australia), plants (failed crops and changed wild 
plants), and humans (heat now the leading cause of premature deaths in 
Australia, overtaking driving accidents.)
https://www.ecoshock.org/audio-on-demand/2019-radio-ecoshock-show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIUxjiD9TlU
- - -
[Nobody can say scientists didn't warn us...Article from 2017]
*SIMULTANEOUS WIDESPREAD GLOBAL HEAT WAVES ARE THE NEW NORM*
Late-spring warmth encircled the Northern Hemisphere, with records on 
every continent.
BOB BERWYN - JUL 3, 2017
- -
Climate researchers say that globally widespread and simultaneous heat 
waves are the new normal, and that people should be ready for worse.

It's clear that, because of global warming, it's going to get much 
warmer in the near future, according to Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate 
scientist with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

"By 2040, we will see about 12 times more monthly heat records than in a 
stable climate, not just five times, as in recent years," he says. "In 
that sense, four out of five monthly heat records are most likely 
man-made.... And these new heat records will also be hotter than past 
records, since, with every new record, the bar for topping that one 
again is raised."

With the average global temperature just shy of 2016's record level, 
Rahmstorf says it shouldn't come as a surprise that deadly forest fires 
swept through Portugal in mid-June. More fires are burning in southern 
Siberia, where the June readings have averaged more than seven degrees 
Celsius above average. Heat waves and drought are intensifying in areas 
where climate models said they would, and on-the-ground observations are 
confirming the forecasts.
- - -
The World Meteorological Organization noted the global scope of this 
year's heat waves in a June 20th bulletin. The European heat wave was 
particularly widespread, extending from the Iberian Peninsula to the 
British Isles and eastward to parts of Germany. A quick study by the 
World Weather Attribution program found that global warming had made the 
European heat much more likely.
- - -
Most of those records were set before summer even really started, and 
more heat is forecast to build across the Western U.S. in early July, 
where there are already more than 40 large wildfires burning. Dealing 
with heat waves will be one of the biggest challenges in the global 
warming era. Nobody can say the scientists didn't warn us.
from - 
https://psmag.com/environment/so-yeah-these-heat-waves-are-basically-the-new-normal
- - -
[Wait, this may have been suggested in a difficult-to-read scientific 
paper back in 2006]
*Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003,*
*their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability*
Received: 30 January 2006 / Accepted: 19 January 2007 / Published 
online: 20 March 2007
http://doc.rero.ch/record/313891/files/382_2007_Article_233.pdf

[fragility - USAID document ]
*Taking Action on Compound Climate-Fragility Risks*
By Ashley Moran and Josh Busby
Fragile states face substantial and growing risks from climate change. 
Our recent study for USAID sought to identify precisely where and how 
these climate and fragility risks intersect around the world. In new 
briefs from USAID, we highlight the key findings and implications for 
policymakers.
*Our Policy Summary: The Nexus of Fragility and Climate Risks notes key 
takeaways for policymakers at the global level. Notably:*
*Most highly fragile states--where institutions and mechanisms for 
meeting public needs are already strained--have a large number of people 
or large share of the population living in high-exposure areas. *These 
are concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, followed by the Middle East and 
North Africa and South and Southeast Asia. Several moderately fragile 
states have among the highest numbers of people living in high-exposure 
areas, posing grave risks to large numbers of people if fragility 
worsens and government response capacity declines in these countries.
*Fragility dynamics help us understand the indirect pathways between 
climate risks and potential conflict outcomes.* Considering 
state-society relations and the dynamics of legitimacy and effectiveness 
enhances our ability to identify the indirect pathways through which 
climate vulnerability is compounded. Conversely, it also helps us 
identify where resilience efforts can benefit climate, environment, and 
conflict prevention goals simultaneously.
*State legitimacy**--meaning public perceptions that the state is 
willing and able to meet public needs--is poor across nearly all states 
with high climate-fragility risks.* State actions that respond to the 
public's need for reduced climate vulnerability could thus 
simultaneously reduce both climate risks and the legitimacy deficits 
that often contribute most heavily to fragility in these states.
- -
It is our hope that the data and mapping products from our study provide 
new tools for policymakers to analyze these risks and identify new 
opportunities for intervention.
- - -
USAID From the American People
*POLICY SUMMARY: THE NEXUS OF FRAGILITY AND CLIMATE RISKS*
  - -
*DEFINING FRAGILITY*
USAID defines fragility as "the extent to which state-society relations  
fail  to  produce  outcomes  that are considered to be effective and 
legitimate.

"Inherent in this definition is the understanding that fragility is a 
characteristic of state-society relations, not just of governing 
institutions. This definition also establishes fragility as a 
two-dimensional concept; both effectiveness and legitimacy are equally 
important to our understanding.

"Effectiveness refers to the capability of the government to work with 
society to assure the provision of order and public goods and services. 
Legitimacy refers to the perception by important segments of society  
that  the  government  is  exercising state  power  in ways  that  are  
reasonably  fair  and  in  the interests of the nation as a whole.

"Finally, fragility affects state-society  relations  in gradations;  
i.e.,  it  is  not  a  condition  that  is  either completely  present  
or  completely  absent.  By  implication, countries  with  high  levels  
of  fragility  can  be expected to face steeper challenges in reducing 
extreme poverty than those with lower levels."Source: USAID 2014,
get the document - https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00TKRR.pdf
Get the full document - 
https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00TBFH.pdf?mc_cid=9a663aa12f&mc_eid=d2eb3bc86b

[Gives a prediction - video 46 mins in]
*Jared Diamond, "Upheaval"*
Politics and Prose
Published on May 14, 2019
Jared Diamond discusses his book, "Upheaval", at a Politics and Prose 
event at George Washington University on 5/10/19.
Best known for his classic Guns, Germs, and Steel, awarded the Pulitzer 
Prize in 1998, Jared Diamond is a professor of geography at UCLA, but he 
draws on myriad fields, including anthropology, economics, ecology, and 
evolutionary biology to propose groundbreaking arguments about human 
civilization. His new book looks at trauma and considers the reasons why 
some nations recover and others collapse. Using six case studies--the 
Soviet invasion of Finland, Commodore Perry's arrival in Japan, 
Pinochet's Chile, Indonesia's evolution from colonialism to 
independence, post-war Germany, and Australia--Diamond's comparative 
study defines "crisis," traces the process of self-appraisal and 
adaptation, identifies patterns, and looks at ways both nations and 
individuals can develop greater resilience.
https://youtu.be/OBUq0Mf5aU8?t=2756

[Protection for an ancient American civilization]
*Victory against fracking in the Greater Chaco region of New Mexico *
Our dedicated and passionate attorneys successfully proved the Bureau of 
Land Management (BLM) illegally approved oil and gas drilling and 
fracking in the Greater Chaco region of New Mexico, a landscape sacred 
to Tribes throughout the American Southwest and home to the Navajo 
Nation. This win has been many years in the making, involved numerous 
court battles, and we never gave up. The court ruled the BLM broke 
federal laws by failing to account for the cumulative impacts of 
fracking in this region and failed to address the impacts of water use 
associated with fracking. This victory comes as political pressure is 
mounting to permanently protect the Greater Chaco region. Recently the 
state of New Mexico instituted a moratorium on leasing oil and gas on 
state trust lands in the area. In addition, the New Mexico Congressional 
delegation introduced a bill to protect a buffer zone around Chaco 
Culture National Historical Park. Our clients and partners on the court 
case include Dine Citizens Against Ruining Our Environment, the San Juan 
Citizens Alliance, WildEarth Guardians, and the Natural Resources 
Defense Council. This victory is a giant leap in protecting the water, 
community health, air quality, climate, and cultural integrity of the 
Greater Chaco landscape. Learn more about this victory.
https://westernlaw.org/greater-chaco-region-wins-reprieve-fracking/

[Asked and answered]
*Will Climate Change Transform the Human Into Another Kind of Animal?*
https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2019/05/15/40213279/will-the-pressures-of-climate-change-transform-the-human-into-another-kind-of-animal

[information danger] *
**Germany's far-right AfD takes aim at Greta Thunberg as it denies 
climate emergency *
Nationalist party has mentioned Swedish schoolgirl hundreds of times on 
social media this year
Germany's leading far-right party is looking to make electoral gains by 
embracing climate change denial, and is increasingly targeting teenage 
activist Greta Thunberg as it seeks to paint global warming as a lie.

Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) this week teamed up with climate 
change sceptics who claim "hysteria" is driving environmentalism to hold 
a conference in parliament attacking climate science.

The event on Tuesday followed a surge in social media posts on the 
subject, including hundreds this year alone that mention Ms Thunberg, a 
16-year-old Swedish schoolgirl.
The AfD has been vocal about its rejection of global warming since 
entering the German Bundestag in 2017, claiming that "increasingly 
religious climate-related hysteria" threatens German prosperity...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-afd-great-thunberg-climate-change-denial-far-right-a8914721.html

[Well thought out Socialist rant]
*A Climate Emergency Manifesto To Avert Climate Catastrophe*
April 17, 2019
GUE/NGL, the left group in the European Parliament, is launching our 
Climate Emergency Manifesto. The latest IPCC Special Report, which 
warned of the mass human and ecological suffering of global warming at 
2° Celsius, coupled with the mass social movement for change of climate 
politics, leads us to make clear our demands on climate action before 
the EU elections next month.

The Left is the only group that makes demands commensurate to what the 
climate strikers are asking for. We stand for a change of the system, 
not politics as usual. Green capitalism will fail to bring about the 
rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes we need to effect to stop 
global warming in the next 11 years. We are MEPs from all corners of 
Europe, and this is our declaration of climate emergency.

Download the manifesto in your language below:
English - 
https://www.guengl.eu/content/uploads/2019/04/Manifesto_Climate_EN.pdf
German - 
https://www.guengl.eu/content/uploads/2019/04/Manifesto_Climate_DE.pdf
Italian - 
https://www.guengl.eu/content/uploads/2019/04/Manifesto_Climate_IT.pdf
https://therealnews.com/climate-emergency-manifesto

*This Day in Climate History - May 17, 2013- from D.R. Tucker*
Andrew Sullivan points to the root cause of US climate-change denial:

    "But the main reason many Americans still refuse to believe it is
    religious fundamentalism. That is immune to science and reason. But
    it is the bedrock belief of one of our political parties."

http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/05/17/settled-among-scientists/
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