[TheClimate.Vote] November 7, 2019 - Daily Global Warming News Digest..

[Richard Pauli]

/November 7, 2019/

[from THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE & SECURITY]
*The Security Implications of Omitting Climate Change from Federal Water 
Availability Forecasts*
- - -
The Army is the executive agent for all land-based water. It is 
responsible for "all aspects of land-based water support for the 
Military Services during contingency operations, including water 
selection, pumping, purification, storage, distribution, cooling, 
consumption, water reuse, water source intelligence, research and 
development, acquisition of water support equipment, water support 
operations doctrine, human factors requirements, training, and water 
support force structure."

With the doctrinal connection between installations and operations and 
the Army's role as executive agent for all land-based water, 
incorporating climate change into water availability planning is 
essential to understand if mission requirements can be met both now and 
in the future. Water availability planning includes not only estimating 
water volumes, sources, and quality needed, but all the equipment and 
infrastructure to acquire, treat, store, deliver, reuse, and dispose, if 
necessary, to support the Joint Force, and ultimately, the National 
Defense Strategy.

Other strategic plans also omit climate change
This action plan is not alone, however. As I wrote previously, the 
interagency National Drought Resilience Partnership (NDRP) also 
inexplicably omits climate change - a critical factor for drought 
forecasting and planning. Further, the Department of Commerce's 
strategic plan and the Department of Interior's strategic plans, which 
should be the parent plans for this action plan, also omit climate 
change and its' effects on water availability. In short, a number of 
U.S. government plans dealing with water issues that have been released 
in 2019 are missing attention to climate change. This is a worrying 
development, to say the least.

Conclusion
Without consideration of climate change in this water forecast action 
plan, understanding of water availability across the breadth of U.S. 
national interests cannot occur. You can't plan for risks that you're 
ignoring. Individual actions, in this context, will bee disconnected 
from a comprehensive and complete understanding of the risks. Climate 
change data is readily available, widely shared and regularly reported 
on by many different outlets. We can see the risks coming. Deliberately 
ignoring that information creates a blind-spot on water availability in 
the U.S. That keeps the U.S. population who relies on that water 
uniformed about the risks to their families, homes, and livelihoods, as 
well as to the military that defends them.
https://climateandsecurity.org/2019/11/06/the-security-implications-of-omitting-climate-change-from-federal-water-availability-forecasts/



[concluding words]
*In its Insatiable Pursuit of Power, Silicon Valley is Fuelling the 
Climate Crisis*
By Rebecca Solnit - November 5, 2019
- - -
Human beings are at their worst when they are consumers, locked into the 
miserable pursuit of satisfaction through the isolation of individual 
consumption - particularly when that shopping and consuming is done 
online (and when, as with Instagram, we learn to turn ourselves into 
commodities). Though many have used technology to further democracy and 
participation, big tech doesn't want us to be citizens. It wants us to 
be consumers. To address the climate crisis we need to be citizens - 
free, powerful, with our private lives private and our public lives 
vivid, energised and safe.

If we do what the climate requires of us we will decentralise energy 
production, breaking up the fossil fuel companies and oligarchies and 
building solar and wind and other renewable technologies that use 
resources that belong to no one and everyone. The beautiful underlying 
metaphor here is that decentralising literal power - as the juice that 
runs our machines - can and should mean decentralising social and 
political power. But big tech has been about consolidation of power, and 
it has created a new billionaire class that advocates in its own 
self-interest and against those of the deep future and the broad 
majority. It has chosen to be the problem rather than the solution.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2019-11-05/in-its-insatiable-pursuit-of-power-silicon-valley-is-fuelling-the-climate-crisis/



[reviling the vile]
*Trump Isn't a Climate Denier. He's Worse.*
The president is withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on 
climate change because he just can't quit carbon.
ROBINSON MEYER - NOV 5, 2019

The United States began the formal process of leaving the Paris 
Agreement on climate change yesterday, withdrawing on the first day it 
was legally possible. Barring something unforeseen, the country will 
depart the accord on November 4, 2020--a day after the next presidential 
election.
- - -
Trump's political opponents--and, sometimes, the press--often term him a 
"climate-change denier." But in a way, this term actually flatters him. 
His stated views about climate science are far too messy and 
opportunistic to bear any coherent label. Here is a man who can tell New 
York Times editors that "there is some connectivity" between human 
activity and climate change and, two years later, say that "people like 
myself, we have very high levels of intelligence, but we're not 
necessarily such believers," before finally proclaiming during a 
snowstorm that it "wouldn't be bad to have some of that good old 
fashioned Global Warming right now!"
- - -
No, when Trump pulls America out of the Paris Agreement, he is 
responding to a different ideology: carbonism. For Trump, carbonism is a 
powerfully economic and cultural idea. Think of the carbon in carbonism 
as akin to the nation in nationalism: It implies a founding myth, a 
powerful worldview, a theory of value, and a prophecy. But it is, at 
heart, a simple idea. Carbonism is a belief that fossil fuels--which 
send carbon pollution spewing into the atmosphere, accelerating climate 
change and ocean acidification--have inherent virtue. That they are 
better, in fact, than other energy sources.

When the Trump administration replaces the Obama-era Clean Power Plan 
with a new rule that may actually increase pollution, that's carbonism. 
When Perry tried to get Americans to subsidize failing coal plants 
through their power bills, that's carbonism. When the EPA fights to 
allow the free venting of methane and other greenhouse gases into the 
atmosphere, that's carbonism. When the EPA fights to let coal plants 
have an easier time spewing heavy metals and other neurotoxins into the 
atmosphere, that's carbonism.
- - -
Here we can see the deeper logic of carbonism: that carbon pollution 
imposes no hard limit on human flourishing, that through the exclusive 
magic of fossil fuels, society can effortlessly solve any problem. 
Sometimes these arguments are rooted in accurate understandings of 
historical progress. Fossil fuels really did make modern excess 
possible, improving the living standard of hundreds of millions of 
people. But now that it's time to move away from fossil fuels, 
carbonists become desperately anti-progress, or they reuse old arguments 
in bizarre new ways. Hence Perry's 2017 claim that fossil fuels somehow 
reduce sexual assault in "those villages in Africa."..
- - -
There's a standard line here: that when the United States withdraws from 
the Paris Agreement and treaties like it, it damages American 
credibility abroad. Such a concern feels a little blasé in the wake of 
our betrayal of the Kurds. If you help us fight the Islamic State and we 
abandon you, why should anyone trust us over a climate treaty?

The damage to American credibility has, to some degree, already been 
done. The real risk now is to American power. One day, perhaps not long 
from now, a few global governments will decide that the age of carbon is 
over. They will back massive investments into remaking the global energy 
economy, redirecting the turbulent flows of international finance. If 
the United States is not among those governments, then American 
banks--whose wealth is deeply bound to fossil fuels--will suffer a 
sudden revaluation. And the mighty dollar, that last guarantor of 
American power, will go up in carbonism's flame.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/11/ideology-behind-donald-trumps-paris-withdrawal/601462/



[11,000 scientists sign on]
*World Scientists' Warning of a Climate Emergency *
William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Thomas M Newsome, Phoebe Barnard, 
William R Moomaw Author Notes
BioScience, biz088, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biz088
Published: 05 November 2019

Scientists have a moral obligation to clearly warn humanity of any 
catastrophic threat and to "tell it like it is." On the basis of this 
obligation and the graphical indicators presented below, we declare, 
with more than 11,000 scientist signatories from around the world, 
clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency.

Exactly 40 years ago, scientists from 50 nations met at the First World 
Climate Conference (in Geneva 1979) and agreed that alarming trends for 
climate change made it urgently necessary to act. Since then, similar 
alarms have been made through the 1992 Rio Summit, the 1997 Kyoto 
Protocol, and the 2015 Paris Agreement, as well as scores of other 
global assemblies and scientists' explicit warnings of insufficient 
progress (Ripple et al. 2017). Yet greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are 
still rapidly rising, with increasingly damaging effects on the Earth's 
climate. An immense increase of scale in endeavors to conserve our 
biosphere is needed to avoid untold suffering due to the climate crisis 
(IPCC 2018).

Most public discussions on climate change are based on global surface 
temperature only, an inadequate measure to capture the breadth of human 
activities and the real dangers stemming from a warming planet (Briggs 
et al. 2015). Policymakers and the public now urgently need access to a 
set of indicators that convey the effects of human activities on GHG 
emissions and the consequent impacts on climate, our environment, and 
society. Building on prior work (see supplemental file S2), we present a 
suite of graphical vital signs of climate change over the last 40 years 
for human activities that can affect GHG emissions and change the 
climate (figure 1), as well as actual climatic impacts (figure 2). We 
use only relevant data sets that are clear, understandable, 
systematically collected for at least the last 5 years, and updated at 
least annually.

https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/165912517/biz088fig1.jpg
https://academic.oup.com/view-large/figure/165912518/biz088fig2.jpg

The climate crisis is closely linked to excessive consumption of the 
wealthy lifestyle. The most affluent countries are mainly responsible 
for the historical GHG emissions and generally have the greatest per 
capita emissions (table S1). In the present article, we show general 
patterns, mostly at the global scale, because there are many climate 
efforts that involve individual regions and countries. Our vital signs 
are designed to be useful to the public, policymakers, the business 
community, and those working to implement the Paris climate agreement, 
the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and the Aichi 
Biodiversity Targets.

Profoundly troubling signs from human activities include sustained 
increases in both human and ruminant livestock populations, per capita 
meat production, world gross domestic product, global tree cover loss, 
fossil fuel consumption, the number of air passengers carried, carbon 
dioxide (CO2) emissions, and per capita CO2 emissions since 2000 (figure 
1, supplemental file S2). Encouraging signs include decreases in global 
fertility (birth) rates (figure 1b), decelerated forest loss in the 
Brazilian Amazon (figure 1g), increases in the consumption of solar and 
wind power (figure 1h), institutional fossil fuel divestment of more 
than US$7 trillion (figure 1j), and the proportion of GHG emissions 
covered by carbon pricing (figure 1m). However, the decline in human 
fertility rates has substantially slowed during the last 20 years 
(figure 1b), and the pace of forest loss in Brazil's Amazon has now 
started to increase again (figure 1g). Consumption of solar and wind 
energy has increased 373% per decade, but in 2018, it was still 28 times 
smaller than fossil fuel consumption (combined gas, coal, oil; figure 
1h). As of 2018, approximately 14.0% of global GHG emissions were 
covered by carbon pricing (figure 1m), but the global emissions-weighted 
average price per tonne of carbon dioxide was only around US$15.25 
(figure 1n). A much higher carbon fee price is needed (IPCC 2018, 
section 2.5.2.1). Annual fossil fuel subsidies to energy companies have 
been fluctuating, and because of a recent spike, they were greater than 
US$400 billion in 2018 (figure 1o).

Especially disturbing are concurrent trends in the vital signs of 
climatic impacts (figure 2, supplemental file S2). Three abundant 
atmospheric GHGs (CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide) continue to increase 
(see figure S1 for ominous 2019 spike in CO2), as does global surface 
temperature (figure 2a-2d). Globally, ice has been rapidly disappearing, 
evidenced by declining trends in minimum summer Arctic sea ice, 
Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and glacier thickness worldwide 
(figure 2e-2h). Ocean heat content, ocean acidity, sea level, area 
burned in the United States, and extreme weather and associated damage 
costs have all been trending upward (figure 2i-2n). Climate change is 
predicted to greatly affect marine, freshwater, and terrestrial life, 
from plankton and corals to fishes and forests (IPCC 2018, 2019). These 
issues highlight the urgent need for action.

Despite 40 years of global climate negotiations, with few exceptions, we 
have generally conducted business as usual and have largely failed to 
address this predicament (figure 1). The climate crisis has arrived and 
is accelerating faster than most scientists expected (figure 2, IPCC 
2018). It is more severe than anticipated, threatening natural 
ecosystems and the fate of humanity (IPCC 2019). Especially worrisome 
are potential irreversible climate tipping points and nature's 
reinforcing feedbacks (atmospheric, marine, and terrestrial) that could 
lead to a catastrophic "hothouse Earth," well beyond the control of 
humans (Steffen et al. 2018). These climate chain reactions could cause 
significant disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies, 
potentially making large areas of Earth uninhabitable.

To secure a sustainable future, we must change how we live, in ways that 
improve the vital signs summarized by our graphs. Economic and 
population growth are among the most important drivers of increases in 
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Pachauri et al. 2014, 
Bongaarts and O'Neill 2018); therefore, we need bold and drastic 
transformations regarding economic and population policies. We suggest 
six critical and interrelated steps (in no particular order) that 
governments, businesses, and the rest of humanity can take to lessen the 
worst effects of climate change. These are important steps but are not 
the only actions needed or possible (Pachauri et al. 2014, IPCC 2018, 2019).

Energy
The world must quickly implement massive energy efficiency and 
conservation practices and must replace fossil fuels with low-carbon 
renewables (figure 1h) and other cleaner sources of energy if safe for 
people and the environment (figure S2). We should leave remaining stocks 
of fossil fuels in the ground (see the timelines in IPCC 2018) and 
should carefully pursue effective negative emissions using technology 
such as carbon extraction from the source and capture from the air and 
especially by enhancing natural systems (see "Nature" section). 
Wealthier countries need to support poorer nations in transitioning away 
from fossil fuels. We must swiftly eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels 
(figure 1o) and use effective and fair policies for steadily escalating 
carbon prices to restrain their use.

Short-lived pollutants
We need to promptly reduce the emissions of short-lived climate 
pollutants, including methane (figure 2b), black carbon (soot), and 
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Doing this could slow climate feedback loops 
and potentially reduce the short-term warming trend by more than 50% 
over the next few decades while saving millions of lives and increasing 
crop yields due to reduced air pollution (Shindell et al. 2017). The 
2016 Kigali amendment to phase down HFCs is welcomed.

Nature
We must protect and restore Earth's ecosystems. Phytoplankton, coral 
reefs, forests, savannas, grasslands, wetlands, peatlands, soils, 
mangroves, and sea grasses contribute greatly to sequestration of 
atmospheric CO2. Marine and terrestrial plants, animals, and 
microorganisms play significant roles in carbon and nutrient cycling and 
storage. We need to quickly curtail habitat and biodiversity loss 
(figure 1f-1g), protecting the remaining primary and intact forests, 
especially those with high carbon stores and other forests with the 
capacity to rapidly sequester carbon (proforestation), while increasing 
reforestation and afforestation where appropriate at enormous scales. 
Although available land may be limiting in places, up to a third of 
emissions reductions needed by 2030 for the Paris agreement (less than 
2°C) could be obtained with these natural climate solutions (Griscom et 
al. 2017).

Food
Eating mostly plant-based foods while reducing the global consumption of 
animal products (figure 1c-d), especially ruminant livestock (Ripple et 
al. 2014), can improve human health and significantly lower GHG 
emissions (including methane in the "Short-lived pollutants" step). 
Moreover, this will free up croplands for growing much-needed human 
plant food instead of livestock feed, while releasing some grazing land 
to support natural climate solutions (see "Nature" section). Cropping 
practices such as minimum tillage that increase soil carbon are vitally 
important. We need to drastically reduce the enormous amount of food 
waste around the world.

Economy
Excessive extraction of materials and overexploitation of ecosystems, 
driven by economic growth, must be quickly curtailed to maintain 
long-term sustainability of the biosphere. We need a carbon-free economy 
that explicitly addresses human dependence on the biosphere and policies 
that guide economic decisions accordingly. Our goals need to shift from 
GDP growth and the pursuit of affluence toward sustaining ecosystems and 
improving human well-being by prioritizing basic needs and reducing 
inequality.

Population
Still increasing by roughly 80 million people per year, or more than 
200,000 per day (figure 1a-b), the world population must be 
stabilized--and, ideally, gradually reduced--within a framework that 
ensures social integrity. There are proven and effective policies that 
strengthen human rights while lowering fertility rates and lessening the 
impacts of population growth on GHG emissions and biodiversity loss. 
These policies make family-planning services available to all people, 
remove barriers to their access and achieve full gender equity, 
including primary and secondary education as a global norm for all, 
especially girls and young women (Bongaarts and O'Neill 2018).

*Conclusions*
Mitigating and adapting to climate change while honoring the diversity 
of humans entails major transformations in the ways our global society 
functions and interacts with natural ecosystems. We are encouraged by a 
recent surge of concern. Governmental bodies are making climate 
emergency declarations. Schoolchildren are striking. Ecocide lawsuits 
are proceeding in the courts. Grassroots citizen movements are demanding 
change, and many countries, states and provinces, cities, and businesses 
are responding.

As the Alliance of World Scientists, we stand ready to assist 
decision-makers in a just transition to a sustainable and equitable 
future. We urge widespread use of vital signs, which will better allow 
policymakers, the private sector, and the public to understand the 
magnitude of this crisis, track progress, and realign priorities for 
alleviating climate change. The good news is that such transformative 
change, with social and economic justice for all, promises far greater 
human well-being than does business as usual. We believe that the 
prospects will be greatest if decision-makers and all of humanity 
promptly respond to this warning and declaration of a climate emergency 
and act to sustain life on planet Earth, our only home.
PDF 
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/30339339/biz088.pdf

https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biz088/5610806?searchresult=1



[You can fight reality, but eventually you will lose]
*Delhi air pollution: Environmental crisis must be seen in conjunction 
with politics for effective solutions*
IF THINGS CONTINUE IN THE PRESENT MANNER, INDIA WILL HAVE ALL THE TOP 10 
SLOTS FOR THE MOST POLLUTED CITIES IN THE WORLD; DELHI, DESPITE ITS 
INTERNATIONAL INFAMY IN THE GLOBAL HALL OF POLLUTION, IS NOT EVEN IN THE 
TOP 10 IN INDIA ITSELF, JUDGING BY CENTRAL POLLUTION CONTROL BOARD DATA
The pollution problem in North India is not a technology problem or an 
agriculture problem, or even a traffic problem
The solution must be sought in changing economic incentives for farmers 
in North India to get out of their bad habits
We have almost reached the point where the air will similarly become a 
commodity...
https://www.sixdegreesnews.org/archives/27552/delhi-air-pollution-environmental-crisis-must-be-seen-in-conjunction-with-politics-for-effective-solutions




[from the archive, a 1965 warning]
*'Time is Running Out,' American Petroleum Institute Chief Said in 1965 
Speech on Climate Change*
By Sharon Kelly - posted November 20, 2018
The warning is clear and dire -- and the source unexpected. "This report 
unquestionably will fan emotions, raise fears, and bring demand for 
action," the president of the American Petroleum Institute (API) told an 
oil industry conference, as he described research into climate change 
caused by fossil fuels.

"The substance of the report is that there is still time to save the 
world's peoples from the catastrophic consequence of pollution, but time 
is running out."

The speaker wasn't Mike Sommers, who was named to helm API this past 
May. Nor was it Jack Gerard, who served as API's president for roughly a 
decade starting in 2008.

The API president speaking those words was named Frank Ikard -- and the 
year was 1965, over a half-century ago.

It was the same year that Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. led a civil rights 
march from Selma to Montgomery, Muhammad Ali felled Sonny Liston in the 
first round, and Malcom X was fatally shot in New York. The first 
American ground combat troops arrived in Vietnam and President Lyndon B. 
Johnson signed the law establishing Medicaid and Medicare.

It would be another four years before American astronaut Neil Armstrong 
first set foot on the moon -- and another decade before the phrase 
"global warming" would appear for the first time in a peer-reviewed study.

And 1965, according to a letter by Stanford historian Benjamin Franta 
published this week in the peer-reviewed journal Nature, was the year 
that President Johnson's Science Advisory Committee published a report 
titled "Restoring the Quality of Our Environment," whose findings Ikard 
described at that year's annual API meeting.

"One of the most important predictions of the report is that carbon 
dioxide is being added to the Earth's atmosphere by the burning of coal, 
oil, and natural gas at such a rate that by the year 2000 the heat 
balance will be so modified as possibly to cause marked changes in 
climate beyond local or even national efforts," Ikard presciently added, 
according to excerpts from his speech published in Nature...

API Funded Early Research Linking CO2 and Fossil Fuels
That prediction was based in part on information that was known to the 
oil industry trade group for over a decade -- including research that 
was directly funded by the API, according to Nature.

In 1954, a California Institute of Technology geochemist sent the API a 
research proposal in which they reported that fossil fuels had already 
caused carbon dioxide (CO2) levels to rise roughly five percent since 
1854 -- a finding that Nature notes has since proved to be accurate.

API accepted the proposal and funded that Caltech research, giving the 
program the name Project 53. Project 53 collected thousands of CO2 
measurements -- but the results were never published.

Meanwhile, other researchers were reaching similar conclusions. Nuclear 
physicist Edward Teller became known in 1951 as the "father of the 
hydrogen bomb" for designing a thermonuclear bomb that was even more 
powerful than the atomic bombs dropped in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Teller 
warned the oil and gas industry in 1959 about global warming and sea 
level rise in a talk titled "Energy Patterns of the Future."

"Carbon dioxide has a strange property," Teller said in excerpts 
published earlier this year by The Guardian. "It transmits visible light 
but it absorbs the infrared radiation which is emitted from the earth. 
Its presence in the atmosphere causes a greenhouse effect."

A researcher at Humble Oil Co. (now known as ExxonMobil) checked results 
from a study of carbon isotopes in tree rings against the unpublished 
Caltech results, and found that the two separate methods essentially agreed.

*What the Oil Industry Knew, Then and Now*
In his 1965 talk, the API's Ikard described the role of oil and gasoline 
specifically in causing climate change. "The report further states, and 
I quote: '…the pollution from internal combustion engines is so serious, 
and is growing so fast,'" he told the API conference, "'that an 
alternative nonpolluting means of powering automobiles, buses, and 
trucks is likely to become a national necessity.'"

Three decades later, the API urged a different approach to climate 
science. "It's not known for sure whether (a) climate change actually is 
occurring, or (b) if it is, whether humans really have any influence on 
it," the API wrote in a 1998 draft memo titled "Global Climate Science 
Communications Plan," which was subsequently leaked...
https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/11/20/american-petroleum-institute-1965-speech-climate-change-oil-gas


[Heavy planetary science and philosophy video that relates to global 
warming]
*Why We Might Be Alone in the Universe*
Nov 4, 2019
PBS Space Time
Why does it appear, that humanity is the lone intelligence in the 
universe? The answer might be that  planet Earth is more unique than 
we've previously assumed. The rare earth hypothesis posits exactly this 
- that a range of factors made Earth exceptionally unusual and uniquely 
able to produce intelligent life.

In upcoming episodes we'll be exploring the anthropic principle and its 
two main versions - the strong and the weak anthropic principles. The 
strong anthropic principle tells us that the observed universe must be 
able to produce observers - including the contentious idea that this 
predicts the existence of universes beyond our own. But in today's 
episode we're going to focus on the weak anthropic principle. It says 
that we must find ourselves in a part of the universe capable of 
supporting us. For example, in a planetary biosphere rather than 
floating in the void between the galaxies. This may seems tautological, 
but accounting for this observer selection bias is important to 
understanding why the universe looks the way it does from our 
perspective. And the weak anthropic principle is much more useful than 
that. When combined with the apparent absence of alien civilizations, it 
may tell us why intelligent life is incredibly rare in our universe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wa1l7M5gU8

*This Day in Climate History - November 7, 2012 - from D.R. Tucker*
The 350.org "Do the Math" tour commences in Seattle.
http://www.desmogblog.com/2012/11/08/bill-mckibben-kicks-do-math-tour-seattle
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbdJRb7yaWY
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