[TheClimate.Vote] April 4, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*April 4, 2020*/

[rising risk]
*Climate Change Has Doubled Riskiest Fire Days in California*
The extreme conditions that are ripe for wildfires will only increase if 
warming continues unabated
By Anne C. Mulkern, E&E News on April 3, 2020
- -- 
The number of extreme-risk days will continue to grow "given that the 
climate will continue to warm somewhat more, no matter what we do," 
Swain said. The study noted, however, that actions to mitigate climate 
change "would substantially curb that increase" later in the century.

"This risk is definitely going to get worse before it gets better," 
Swain said. "On the other hand we have a lot of control over how much 
worse it gets."

California in recent years has experienced the deadliest and most 
destructive fires on record. That's triggered extreme adaptation 
efforts, including shutting off electricity to millions of people by 
Pacific Gas & Electric Co., the state's largest utility. The blackouts 
were aimed at preventing downed lines from sparking blazes...
- - -
"Much of interior northern California and coastal southern California 
experienced the hottest summer on record in 2018, and autumn rainfall 
did not arrive across much of the state until mid-to-late November—thus 
predisposing the region to extreme fire danger conditions," the study said.

The northern Sierras and the Malibu area, both of which suffered 
damaging fires in 2018, have warmed roughly 0.6 F per decade since the 
early 1980s, the study said.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-has-doubled-riskiest-fire-days-in-california/



[pushing for change]
*Virus Or Not, US States Foment 100% Renewable Energy Rebellion*
April 3rd, 2020 by Tina Casey
If fossil fuel stakeholders hoped for the COVID-19 crisis to give them a 
little breathing room, they may have to do some re-hoping. The US Energy 
Department dropped yet another one of its renewable energy truth bombs 
earlier this week, and now a coalition of economically powerful US 
states has followed up with a new initiative aimed at accelerating 100% 
clean energy goals across the country. That's not just a state-level 
thing, either. The new initiative aims at municipalities, corporations, 
utilities, and other stakeholders, too.
- - -
Fossil Fuels Crashing, Renewable Energy Rising
Meanwhile, yet another in a series of interesting coincidences (or 
not-coincidences as the case may be) occurred this week, when news 
surfaced that at least seven top oil and gas execs were heading to the 
White House for a personal meeting — a rare thing these days — in search 
of an assist for their industry.

As if to troll the group, the Energy Department promptly cut loose with 
two key renewable energy funding announcements promoting offshore wind, 
among other renewable marine energy resources.

No word yet on whether or not coal stakeholders get a top-level meeting 
of their own. If they get the brush-off, that wouldn't be a surprise. 
Despite repeated promises to coal miners from the current occupant of 
the Oval Office, the US coal industry is in freefall. As they say, 
failure is an orphan.

As if to underscore the point, earlier this week energy regulators in 
New Mexico enabled the utility PNM to cut ties with the notorious 
847-megawatt San Juan Generating Station, which is not good news for the 
power plant's feeder coal mine.

A firm called Enchant Energy still thinks it can keep San Juan going 
with a proposed carbon capture operation, but those energy regulators in 
New Mexico seem to be not thinking the same think.

According to a new study from our friends over at IEEFA, coal could sink 
to about 10% of US electricity generation within the next five years or so.

That's quite a turnaround for a fuel that claimed a 50% share as dawn 
broke over the 21st century. Just goes to show how quickly things can 
change. Something to think about as energy stakeholders of all sorts 
jockey for position in the post-COVID world of the future.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/03/virus-or-not-us-states-foment-100-renewable-energy-rebellion/



[Arctic risk]
*Arctic climate change - it's recent carbon emissions we should fear, 
not ancient methane 'time bombs'*
Joshua Dean - April 2, 2020
The Arctic is predicted to warm faster than anywhere else in the world 
this century, perhaps by as much as 7C. These rising temperatures 
threaten one of the largest long-term stores of carbon on land: permafrost.

Permafrost is permanently frozen soil. The generally cold temperatures 
in the Arctic keep soils there frozen year-on-year. Plants grow in the 
uppermost soil layers during the short summers and then decay into soil, 
which freezes when the winter snow arrives.

Over thousands of years, carbon has built up in these frozen soils, and 
they're now estimated to contain twice the carbon currently in the 
atmosphere. Some of this carbon is more than 50,000 years old, which 
means the plants that decomposed to produce that soil grew over 50,000 
years ago. These soil deposits are known as "Yedoma", which are mainly 
found in the East Siberian Arctic, but also in parts of Alaska and Canada.

As the region warms, the permafrost is thawing, and this frozen carbon 
is being released to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane. 
Methane release is particularly worrying, as it's a highly potent 
greenhouse gas.

- - -
What this shows is that the age of the carbon released from the warming 
Arctic is less important than the amount and form it takes. Methane is 
34 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas over a 
100-year timeframe. The East Siberian Arctic is a generally flat and wet 
landscape, and these are conditions which produce lots of methane, as 
there's less oxygen in soils which might otherwise create carbon dioxide 
during thaws instead. As a result, potent methane could well dominate 
the greenhouse gas emissions from the region.

Since most of the emissions from the Arctic this century will likely be 
from "young" carbon, we may not need to worry about ancient permafrost 
adding substantially to modern climate change. But the Arctic will still 
be a huge source of carbon emissions, as carbon that was soil or plant 
matter only a few hundred years ago leaches to the atmosphere. That will 
increase as warmer temperatures lengthen growing seasons in the Arctic 
summer.

The fading spectre of an ancient methane time bomb is cold comfort. The 
new research should urge the world to act boldly on climate change, to 
limit how much natural processes in the Arctic can contribute to the 
problem.
https://theconversation.com/arctic-climate-change-its-recent-carbon-emissions-we-should-fear-not-ancient-methane-time-bombs-135270



[Beckwith video talks ]
*Arctic Sea Ice Status: Where it is NOW; Where is it GOING; and how 
QUICKLY is it GOING.*
Apr 2, 2020
Paul Beckwith
This is the first of a bunch of videos on the Arctic Sea Ice. I first 
give a recap on how vanishing sea ice is distorting the jet streams and 
specifically messing with the center of rotation (center of cold). I 
then go into details on the present state of sea ice extent, thickness, 
and volume trends. Following that I discuss some recent papers using 
computer models and statistical models to assess when we can expect the 
first Blue Ocean Event (my phrase). Of course, I interject a few times 
into this important topic with a few updates on the exponential growth 
of our global coronavirus pandemic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJXkyeJBr_Q
- - -
[Next video]
*Arctic Sea-Ice: Going. Going. GONE; but WHEN?**
*Apr 2, 2020
Paul Beckwith
The essential go-to website for near real-time plots on the Arctic 
sea-ice can be easily found by Googling "Arctic sea ice graphs". 
Personally, I really appreciate the effort and expertise of Zach Labe 
who generates numerous graphs and animations that clearly show the 
rapidly decreasing trends in Arctic sea ice extent, thickness, and 
volume. In this video and the next, I examine this data which gives us a 
clear picture of the present state of the Arctic and from the trends 
allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about the near term 
trends. It is just a matter of time before the ice vanishes, but how 
much time are we talking?


[new titles published by Routledge on the subject of Climate Change and 
Sustainability]
*Contemporary Climate Change Debates*
A Student Primer
Edited by Mike Hulme
https://www.routledge.com/Contemporary-Climate-Change-Debates-A-Student-Primer/Hulme/p/book/9781138333024
- -
*Insuring Against Climate Change*
The Emergence of Regional Catastrophe Risk Pools
By Nikolas Scherer
https://www.routledge.com/Insuring-Against-Climate-Change-The-Emergence-of-Regional-Catastrophe/Scherer/p/book/9780367342470
- -
*Climate and Energy Politics in Poland*
Debating Carbon Dioxide and Shale Gas
By Aleksandra Lis
https://www.routledge.com/Climate-and-Energy-Politics-in-Poland-Debating-Carbon-Dioxide-and-Shale/Lis/p/book/9780367195496
- -
Routledge Advances in Climate Change Research:
https://www.routledge.com/Routledge-Advances-in-Climate-Change-Research/book-series/RACCR
Routledge Research in Global Environmental Governance: 
https://www.routledge.com/sustainability/series/RRGEG


[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming  - April 4, 2002 *
April 4, 2002: The New York Times reports:

"President Bush signed an executive order last year that closely 
resembles a written recommendation given to the administration two 
months earlier by the American Gas Association, according to documents 
released by the Bush administration.

"The executive order called for the creation of an interagency energy 
task force to accelerate the time it takes for government agencies to 
review corporations' applications for permits for energy-related 
projects, like power plants and the exploration of oil and natural gas 
on public lands. Mr. Bush signed the order last May.

"The language in Mr. Bush's executive order is similar to a passage in a 
proposed energy bill sent in March 2001 to the Energy Department by 
officials at the American Gas Association, the trade group that 
represents large natural gas companies and has given more than $500,000 
to the Republican Party since 1999."
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/04/politics/04ENER.html

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