[TheClimate.Vote] April 6, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Tue Apr 7 10:04:51 EDT 2020
/*April 6, 2020*/
[3rd biggest jump]
*Unexpec**ted Surge in Atmospheric Methane*
Summary
A dramatic and surprising surge in atmospheric methane has emerged over
the past several years. The size of the surge is significant. If not
mitigated, this new trend could, for example, wipe out the gains
anticipated from the Paris Climate Agreement. In response, scientists
have begun ringing alarm bells in several high-profile peer-reviewed
publications.
It is not entirely clear what factors are driving the surge. However,
there is a firm consensus among scientists that the best response is
deep and rapid reductions in methane emitted from the production and
distribution of natural gas.
Methane pollution from the natural gas sector is responsible for a
lion's share of current anthropogenic emissions. This baseline pollution
sustains methane in the atmosphere at a level far above pre-industrial
conditions. This pollution is also the most easily addressed source of
methane. The International Energy Agency estimates that the global oil
and gas industry can reduce 40-50% of methane emissions at zero net
cost. Looking at end uses, clean alternatives to gas-fired power (e.g.
utility-scale wind and solar) are now cost-competitive options.
In the United States, the fossil fuel industry is the largest source of
methane pollution, and emissions from the oil and gas sector have grown
at least 40% over the last decade...
- - -
https://climatenexus.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/ch4_trend_all_glThroughNov2019.png
- -
While the size of the role of fossil-fuel production and distribution in
driving the recent surge in global methane is still under investigation,
it is already well documented that fossil-fuel production is one of the
major drivers in sustaining industrial era methane levels.[35] As a
result, reducing fossil-fuel methane emissions would have a significant
impact in addressing impact of the methane surge. The lifetime of
methane in the atmosphere is relatively short (∼11 years), i.e. it
washes out of the atmosphere fairly quickly (unlike CO2). Thus, large
anthropogenic emissions are required to simply sustain the elevated
global methane levels of the industrial era. A significant reduction in
anthropogenic emissions quickly translates into a reduction in
atmospheric methane.
Fossil-fuel methane emissions are also the most easily addressed source
of emissions. The International Energy Agency estimates industry can
reduce its worldwide emissions by 75 percent--and that up to two-thirds
of those reductions (40-50% of total emissions) can be realized at zero
net cost.[36]
In addition, there are particular opportunities to address emissions
from agriculture. Changes in the diet of livestock could reduce the
production of methane in dairy cattle without reducing milk production.[37]
In this context the 23 authors of Nisbet et al wrote: "We may not be
able to influence the factors driving the new rise in methane,
especially if it is a climate change feedback, but by monitoring,
quantifying and reducing the very large anthropogenic inputs, especially
from the gas, coal and cattle industries, and perhaps by direct removal,
we may be able to cut the total methane burden to be compliant with the
Paris goals."[38]
https://climatenexus.org/climate-change-news/methane-surge/
- - -
*Atmospheric methane has reached a new record high according to the
annual estimate posted today by **
**@NOAA_ESRL*
This year's jump is the 3rd biggest going back 20 years, extending a
recent troubling surge in methane - a potent greenhouse gas. Background
here: https://climatenexus.org/climate-change-news/methane-surge/
https://twitter.com/HunterCutting/status/1247272715519586305
[Trend lines]
*The First Arctic Blue Ocean Event: What Computer Simulations and
Statistical Trend Analysis Tells Us*
Apr 6, 2020
Paul Beckwith
In this video and the next, I continue my examination of Arctic sea ice
data which gives us a clear picture of its present state and clearly
shows the relentless downward trends in extent, thickness, and volume
that allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about when it will
vanish in a Blue Ocean Event (BOE). It is just a matter of time before
the ice vanishes, but how much time are we talking about? I give my own
educated opinion (guess), and draw on some recent peer-reviewed
scientific papers that attempt narrow down the timing of the first BOE,
from both computer modelling simulations and statistical trend analysis.
https://youtu.be/U82e8XF-5Lo?t=57
- - -
[Data sources]
https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-figures/
https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1247331277281218560?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
- -
[predictions of melting Arctic Ocean]
*Arctic Blue Ocean Event: Timing Gleamed from Statistical Trend Analysis
and Computer Simulations*
Apr 6, 2020
Paul Beckwith
In this video and the next, I continue my examination of Arctic sea ice
data which gives us a clear picture of its present state and clearly
shows the relentless downward trends in extent, thickness, and volume
that allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about when it will
vanish in a Blue Ocean Event (BOE). It is just a matter of time before
the ice vanishes, but how much time are we talking about? I give my own
educated opinion (guess), and draw on some recent peer-reviewed
scientific papers that attempt to narrow down the timing of the first
BOE, from both computer modelling simulations and statistical trend
analysis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCEawfpDoD0
- -
[Data display sources]
*Predicting the Future of Arctic Ice*
New study suggests climate models may underestimate rate of melting
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/arctic-ice-study
- - -
*What Do Global Climate Models Tell Us about Future Arctic Sea Ice
Coverage Changes?*
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/8/1/15
[Opinion]
*Japan's woeful climate plan amounts to science denial*
03/04/2020
Comment: Japan reiterates past pledges for 2030 rather than mapping out
a radical overhaul needed by the world's fifth largest greenhouse gas
emitter.
By Shekhar Deepak Singh
Japan recently submitted a 'new' climate action plan largely reiterating
its old targets for 2030.
This is not just woefully inadequate for meeting larger climate goals,
it also negates science and sets a bad precedent, especially as Covid-19
engulfs the planet.
Already, the role of the leading emitters such as the US have made the
goals of Paris Agreement more turbid.
And Japan's plan issued on 30 March, known as a Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC), further muddies the issue. The fight to address
climate change has never been more serious, even though the 26th annual
UN climate summit – Cop26 – has been postponed in the wake of global
pandemic.
The growth of greenhouse gas emissions over the past years has wreaked
havoc across the world in the form of extreme weather events such as
floods, forest fires, heatwaves and droughts.
Still, the world continues to exorbitantly emit greenhouse gases into
the atmosphere with China, the US, India, Russia and Japan accounting
for 62% of all emissions in 2018.
The per-capita carbon emissions show the skewed divisions between
advanced industrial societies and the developing world, mandating an
aggressive role for industrial societies in line with their historical
responsibility in creating climate change...
- -
During the Kyoto Protocol regime, Japan had a target of a 6% reduction
from 1990 levels in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol
between 2008-2012.
However, rather than aiming for real emission cuts, Japan relied on
offsets and buying credits from other countries.
Measures such as energy efficiency, Cool Plan for halving emissions by
2050 (without a base year) and coal tax have been touted as weak and
highly insufficient.
Often in climate negotiations, Japan has worked closely with the biggest
historical polluter – the United States – in common stances such as
resisting ambition, pushing for "clean coal" and related technologies
and refusing to fulfil finance and technology transfer to developing
countries.
The Japan-United States Strategic Energy Partnership (JUSEP) in 2017 for
promoting coal and controversial nuclear technologies in the Southeast
Asian region is one such example. Applauded inititally, it did not
translate into real climate actions.
The post-Fukushima changed the Japanese energy dimensions drastically.
From 2000-2010, the Japanese solar photo-voltaic (PV) industry became
uncompetitive with foreign rivals.
After the Senkaku Island dispute (2010) with China, the import
restrictions of rare earth elements (like neodymium, indium,
praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) further dented the solar programme.
This was worsened by poor oversight to see the effects of major solar
programmes outside Japan's innovations system. Its wind programme did
not take off largely due to stringent environmental and technical norms
regarding seismic zones.
Rather than focusing on restructuring its solar industry, Japan has
opted for an easier option and switched to coal power in a big way.
It has more than 90 coal plants and plans to operate 22 additional new
plants. It relies on coal for more than a third of its power generation
needs, resulting in an upward increase in carbon emissions...
- - -
The coronavirus and economic slowdowns should be no excuse for climate
inaction.
The world cannot afford to passively watch rich emitters' shenanigans.
The (non) actions of climate rogues need to be called out unanimously
and to raise climate ambition is no longer a matter of choice.
Dr Shekhar Deepak Singh is a post-doctoral researcher at the Chinese
University of Hong Kong specialising on issues of Energy Policy,
Environment and Sustainable Development. Views expressed are personal.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/03/japans-woeful-climate-plan-amounts-science-denial/
[global climate refugees]
*As Himalayas Warm, Nepal's Climate Migrants Struggle to Survive*
Pushed out of their village by a drought and lack of food, a group of
Nepalis are fighting to amplify the voices of those forced to relocate
by the planet's warming.
By Bhadra Sharma and Kai Schultz
April 5, 2020
DHYE, Nepal -- High in the Himalayas, on a rugged plateau dotted with
empty mud huts, an exodus has begun.
In the village of Dhye, crops are stubby, dead stalks. Water is scarce.
The only school closed a few years ago. With dwindling food, most
families have packed their belongings and left, driven out by a
faceless, man-made enemy.
They are Nepal's climate-change migrants, and there will be more.
"I love this village," said Sonam Chhiring Gurung, 76, one of the final
holdouts, "but I can't survive here much longer."
Climate change is remaking the Himalayan region, putting at risk
millions of South Asians who depend on its water resources and pushing
mountain dwellers in northern Nepal, home to the world's highest peaks,
to build new settlements at lower altitudes.
Glacial melt has accelerated in the 1,500-mile-long Himalayas. Land once
used for growing vegetables has become barren. Yak herders say they are
struggling to find grazing patches for their animals. Scientists have
found that rising temperatures could spread malaria and dengue to new
areas of the Himalayas, where mosquitoes have started to appear in the
highlands.
Around the world, tens of millions of people have already been displaced
as a result of a warming planet. Researchers estimate that the number of
climate-change migrants -- those fleeing natural disasters, droughts or
other calamities -- could reach a billion by the end of the century.
South Asians are among the most vulnerable. Last year, after an
unusually weak monsoon, water nearly ran out in Chennai, one of India's
biggest cities. In Bangladesh, up to 18 million people face displacement
by 2050 from sea rise alone, according to the Environmental Justice
Foundation. Extreme heat is making people sicker and poorer, and could
sharply diminish the living standards of 800 million people in the
region if goals for mitigating climate change are not met.
Warmer Himalayas could have disastrous consequences for the subcontinent.
Last year, in one of the most complete studies on mountain warming,
scientists warned that even if the world's most ambitious climate change
targets were met, at least one-third of Himalayan glaciers would melt by
the end of the century...
- - -
"Nepal is ground zero for the impacts of climate change," she said. "As
a country with one of the most fragile ecosystems -- the Himalayas --
and an economy that is heavily reliant on favorable climate conditions,
Nepal is probably one of the most exposed."
Glimpses of a warmer future are everywhere...
- - -
When a government conservation group backed away from its promise of
providing apple seedlings for Dhye Khola, Mr. Gurung said he marched
into its office and threatened to burn it down. He said the group
eventually relented and sent about 275 seedlings.
"To those who say climate change is fake and criticize us for occupying
public land, I ask them to come visit our village," Mr. Gurung said. "I
am a victim of climate change."...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/asia/nepal-himalayas-glacier-climate.html
[Opinion from Business Insider]
*Climate change is only going to make health crises like coronavirus
more frequent and worse*
Ibrahim AlHusseini, Opinion Contributor
- Climate change is only going to make pandemics like coronavirus more
frequent.
- Climate change is also going to cause a slew of other health issues
for people around the world.
- In order to combat these devastating effects, we need to address
climate change.
- Ibrahim AlHusseini is the founder and CEO of FullCycle, an investment
firm focused on addressing the climate crisis.
- -
These viruses do not disappear along with the habitats and animals they
once inhabited; they tend to search for a new host – which all too often
becomes us. As Eric Roston noted in a recent Bloomberg article, "unlike
measles or polio, there is no vaccine for ecosystem destruction."
The good news is that these scenarios are by no means inevitable. But to
avoid them, we need our elected leaders to inform the public about the
connection between pandemics like COVID-19, and climate change. Because
climate change is a problem we can solve, but only if we show the kind
of international energy and cooperation that we are beginning to see in
the fight against coronavirus.
As we head into the fall election in the US, and President Trump and
former Vice President Biden debate their plans to confront this pandemic
and the next one, both men would benefit from offering concrete steps to
address the climate crisis. And businesses, even those who depend on
fossil fuels, need to realize that the health of their customers and
employees will suffer if they keep opposing climate-friendly policies
and candidates.
We no longer need vague promises from our leaders: we need decisive
action. Unless that happens, COVID-19 could be a harbinger of things to
come.
https://www.businessinsider.com/climate-change-making-health-crises-like-coronavirus-frequent-worse-2020-4
[Opinion Letters to the NYTimes]
LETTERS
*Does Coronavirus Bring a New Perspective on Climate Change?*
Readers discuss the effect of the virus on the environment going forward.
April 5, 2020
To the Editor:
Re "What the Pandemic Means for Climate Change," by Meehan Crist (Sunday
Review, March 29):
In Los Angeles, New York, Manila and Milan, the skies clear as air
pollution drops. In Venice, the canal water is clear enough to see fish,
and dolphins are returning. What would the world be like if we decided
to pursue this trend?
Less asthma and cancer, fewer lung and heart diseases, fewer deaths.
More beauty in our lives. A slowing of global emissions.
Coronavirus is catastrophic, but it opens a new path. What if the
frantic rush hours, relentless production of often unneeded or quickly
obsolete items, and nonstop consumer spending were to calm? If we
invested in renewable energy, electric cars and public transportation,
and stopped funding fossil fuels, would we create good jobs and improve
health for ourselves and the planet?
Before, it was hard to envision such a change, but now we can see
glimpses of what it might offer. Any new stimulus bill in the United
States should include funds for a transition to a more sustainable
world. We owe it to our children and grandchildren.
Mary Makofske
Warwick, N.Y.
- - -
To the Editor:
Coronavirus: The dominance of this topic in all media is understandable,
given the obvious global impact and need for immediate response. It is
equally understandable that climate change has never generated this kind
of urgency.
Human beings are just not wired to focus on long-term, slow-motion
disasters, no matter how severe, especially when there are commercial
interests involved that obscure the seriousness. It is not inevitable
that the cleaner air and water we are witnessing have to be temporary
and only associated with economic meltdown.
If the prospect of future heat waves, floods and extreme storms is not
grabbing you, what about addressing millions of deaths every year that
are happening right now because of particulate air pollution?
Carbon-pricing and cash-back legislation is consistent with a climate
change stimulus package that builds a carbon-neutral society. Meehan
Crist is wisely calling for a human-centered economy we can live with
forever, not a finance-centered, consumer-driven one that we live and
die for.
Gary M. Stewart
Laguna Beach, Calif.
The writer is an internist.
- - -
To the Editor:
Paul Krugman's explanation of the connection between coronavirus
denialism and climate denialism was spot on (column, nytimes.com, March
28). But the analogy is even deeper than he said.
Like climate change, a pandemic is outside the experience of today's
population. Like climate change, a pandemic develops gradually, with
small effects at first. Like climate change, a pandemic has effects that
must be predicted using scientific concepts that many people do not
understand.
Like climate change, a pandemic has effects that are predictable in
general but somewhat uncertain in detail. Like climate change, a
pandemic must be controlled by decisive action taken long before the
worst effects are felt, with immediate pain to vested economic interests.
The time scales are different, but the traits are similar. Our
policymakers have not been good at making costly changes today to avoid
dramatic harms in the future.
Steve C. Gold
Caldwell, N.J.
The writer teaches environmental law at Rutgers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/opinion/letters/coronavirus-climate.html
[more opinion from Grist]
*Be prepared: Key lessons from the coronavirus pandemic and climate change*
By Nathanael Johnson on Apr 3, 2020
It's no secret that President Donald Trump has impeded efforts to stop
the spread of the coronavirus across the country. He fired the National
Security Council's pandemic response team in 2018. He lied about his
shifting stances after first downplaying the threat, ad-libbed
falsehoods about invoking the Defense Production Act to produce masks,
and garbled messages from his own public health experts. He said that
only liberal snowflakes were concerned about the virus, labelling it
"their new hoax," ginned up to bring him down. His allies on TV repeated
those sentiments, convincing many Republicans that the coronavirus was
an overblown threat. And he declined to mobilize the government's
disaster response experts.
- -
"I've been in this adaptation space for a while, and it tends to be
framed in terms of additional costs only," she said. In other words,
people should consider what happens after disasters hit, the costs of
responding to emergencies, rebuilding, and loss of life.
President Barack Obama made an executive order to support climate
resilience efforts in 2009. Trump revoked it in 2017, on the grounds
that it made the country "less competitive" because it asked federal
agencies to reduce greenhouse gasses and plan ahead. In the meantime,
Chan said, local governments are leading the way.
"Communities from Vermont to Illinois and Colorado have rebuilt roads
and other infrastructure in the aftermath of major storms and floods to
better withstand future climate risks," she said. "Counties in Southeast
Florida have established a coordinated planning effort to adapt to sea
level rise. Low-lying states like Delaware and Maryland now require
state-funded construction projects to be designed to accommodate future
sea level rise and increased flooding."
The most terrifying projections about what hell climate change will
bring are often based on forecasts that assume governments refuse to
adapt to a wetter, warmer world. But as we can see cleary during this
pandemic, the argument for preparation seems blindingly obvious once
disaster strikes. So why wait?
https://grist.org/climate/be-prepared-key-lessons-from-the-pandemic-and-climate-change/
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - April 6, 2000 *
Predicting the controversies that would define the George W. Bush
administration, New York Times columnist Bob Herbert observes, "Mr.
Bush's relationship to the environment is roughly that of a doctor to a
patient -- when the doctor's name is Kevorkian."
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/04/06/opinion/in-america-bush-goes-green.html?pagewanted=print
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