[TheClimate.Vote] April 10, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Apr 10 10:07:18 EDT 2020
/*April 10, 2020*/
[Audio podcast]
*HEATED Ep 3: COVID-19 is the dress rehearsal for the climate apocalypse*
Strap in because environmental justice organizer Anthony Rogers-Wright
brings the heat. In his role as the policy coordinator for the Climate
Justice Alliance, Anthony advocates for a huge network of indigenous,
urban black, and low-income communities on the front lines of climate
change who all share one thing in common: they are all
disproportionately harmed by the effects of climate change and
pollution. As Anthony makes abundantly clear, the reality that we have
to face right now is that we will not be equal in our suffering when it
comes to climate change. Just as we will not be equal in our suffering
when it comes to coronavirus.
https://podbay.fm/podcast/1439735906/e/1586329260
[The Journal Nature]
*The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change*
Christopher H. Trisos, Cory Merow & Alex L. Pigot
Nature (2020 )
Abstract
As anthropogenic climate change continues the risks to biodiversity
will increase over time, with future projections indicating that a
potentially catastrophic loss of global biodiversity is on the
horizon. However, our understanding of when and how abruptly this
climate-driven disruption of biodiversity will occur is limited
because biodiversity forecasts typically focus on individual
snapshots of the future. Here we use annual projections (from 1850
to 2100) of temperature and precipitation across the ranges of more
than 30,000 marine and terrestrial species to estimate the timing of
their exposure to potentially dangerous climate conditions. We
project that future disruption of ecological assemblages as a result
of climate change will be abrupt, because within any given
ecological assemblage the exposure of most species to climate
conditions beyond their realized niche limits occurs almost
simultaneously. Under a high-emissions scenario (representative
concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5), such abrupt exposure events begin
before 2030 in tropical oceans and spread to tropical forests and
higher latitudes by 2050. If global warming is kept below 2C, less
than 2% of assemblages globally are projected to undergo abrupt
exposure events of more than 20% of their constituent species;
however, the risk accelerates with the magnitude of warming,
threatening 15% of assemblages at 4C, with similar levels of risk in
protected and unprotected areas. These results highlight the
impending risk of sudden and severe biodiversity losses from climate
change and provide a framework for predicting both when and where
these events may occur.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2189-9
[opinion in Scientific American]
*Climate Change and Infectious Diseases*
It isn't making COVID-19 worse than it would otherwise have been--but we
can't say the same for malaria, dengue and other illnesses
By Arthur Wyns on April 9, 2020
Is there a link between climate change and COCID-19, and should we be
worried about other infectious diseases?
We know climate change is having widespread impacts on our health,
including by worsening illnesses ranging from seasonal allergies to
heart and lung disease. But what do we know about how climate change
affects infectious diseases? Here are some answers.
*
**Do weather and climate influence the risk of COVID-19?*
No. At the moment there is no scientific evidence to believe that either
weather or climate have a particularly strong influence on the
transmission of the COVID-19 disease, since the new disease currently
also spreads in hot and humid climates. There is also no evidencethat
climate change made the emergence or transmission of COVID-19 more
likely. Popular myths around COVID-19, such as that the novel
coronavirus will be killed by hot or cold weather have also all been
debunked.
COVID-19 is mainly transmitted directly from person to person through
close contact, or through respiratory droplets produced when an infected
person coughs, sneezes or exhales. People can catch the disease if they
breathe in those droplets, or by touching objects or surfaces where
infected droplets have landed, then touching their eyes, nose or mouth.
While temperature and humidity may influence how long the virus survives
outside of the human body, this effect is likely to be many degrees
smaller compared to the degree of contact between people. Washing hands
and reducing physical contact are therefore essential to breaking the
chain of transmission, in all locations, seasons and climates.
*
**Will climate change make the effects of COVID-19 worse?*
Even though climate change did not cause the emergence of COVID-19, it
could indirectly make the effects of a current or future pandemic worse.
This is because it undermines the environmental conditions we need for
good health--access to water, clean air, food and shelter--and places
additional stress on health systems.
For example, climate change is causing widespread drought and
desertification in much of the world, threatening the availability of
water for consumption, food production, personal hygiene, and medical
care, including for infectious disease. In drought-prone areas, medical
facilities with water shortages will be ill-equipped to deal with the
outbreak. Similarly, COVID-19 outbreaks will cripple already weakened
health systems in regions that have seen an increase in the frequency
and severity of climate-induced extreme weather events, such as Haiti or
Mozambique.
For health systems already weakened by climate-related health impacts,
flattening the curve of infections to avoid overwhelming the healthcare
system becomes much more challenging.
*What about other infectious diseases?*
We do know that infections that are transmitted through water, through
food, or by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks, are highly sensitive
to weather and climate conditions. The warmer, wetter and more variable
conditions brought by climate change are therefore making it easier to
transmit diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow
fever, Zika virus, West Nile virus and Lyme disease in many parts of the
world.
The Lancet Countdown, a scientific collaboration between 35
institutions, found that the climate suitability for disease
transmission has already increased for diseases including dengue,
malaria and cholera.
As an example, a changing climate is aggravating the negative health
impacts of malaria by broadening the range of the Anopheles mosquito,
the vector that spreads it. It also lengthens the season in which
mosquitos reproduce and transmit the disease, thereby increasing the
number of people at risk. A similar escalation takes place for diseases
such as dengue fever, chikungunya, yellow fever and Zika, which are
spread by Aedes mosquitos.
Lyme disease, which is spread by ticks, is also increasing its range and
seasonality in many parts of North America and Europe, while waterborne
cholera and cryptosporidiosis are increasing with more frequent droughts
and flooding.
What can the global response to COVID-19 teach us about our response to
climate change?
Both climate change and COVID-19 are public health threats, although
they are playing out across vastly different timescales. Both require
early action to save lives, as well as adequate health systems that
provide equitable access to the most vulnerable in society.
Just as with COVID-19, how well communities can cope with infectious
diseases and other health impacts that are intensified by climate change
ultimately depends on the underlying strength and resilience of the
health system, whether it ensures protection for the most vulnerable in
society, and the extent to which it protects the public from both short
and long-term health threats.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/climate-change-and-infectious-diseases/
[Nature and the IPCC report]
*Can the world's most influential climate report carry on?*
For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, COVID-19 has forced a
new way of doing business.
Jeff Tollefson
With science around the world grinding to a halt as a result of efforts
to contain the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus, the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is struggling to keep the world's next
big global-warming report on track.
Hundreds of scientists are working with the international panel to
assess the science of climate change as well as the efforts to curb
greenhouse-gas emissions and prepare for inevitable impacts. The next
big report -- the IPCC's first in about seven years -- is due out next
year, and is intended to guide government actions. But that timeline is
already under threat due to government lockdowns, travel bans and
university closures.
Here, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, a climatologist at the Climate and
Environmental Sciences Laboratory in Gif-sur-Yvette, France and co-chair
of the working group that assesses the physical science of climate
change, discusses with Nature how the scientists involved are dealing
with the crisis. Regardless of the final schedule and acknowledging the
inevitable delays ahead, Masson-Delmotte says she intends to press on
with her work. "We want to have a light touch and avoid adding any
burden on the shoulders of people who are facing multiple challenges,"
she says.
How is the IPCC adapting to problems posed by COVID-19? What is the
strategy?
I think there are two dimensions. The first one is to alleviate the
stress on everybody contributing to the work of the IPCC. The second is
to develop ways to maintain the highest-quality standards for our
reports. The two goals are contradictory, in a way.
We have run a survey of the climate-science community and received 351
responses from all continents (see 'How are climate scientists
coping?'). Ninety-five percent say that measures in place to address the
coronavirus situation are impacting on their work. Many are not able to
continue working in the laboratory or do field work. Most meetings are
postponed or cancelled. Researchers are dealing with a transition to
online teaching and extra administrative issues. They feel committed,
but it's such a stress at the moment.
This month's meeting of the IPCC working group on climate-change
mitigation will now take place online. Can the IPCC work virtually?
We will all learn from this experience. For years we have faced a number
of challenges in making our physical meetings more participatory and
inclusive. Now we need to work to make online meetings as inclusive and
as participatory as possible.
We cannot ask people to spend 8 hours in an online meeting when it's the
middle of the night on one part of the globe, so we need to make the
best use of time when people are connected. It's about unpacking what
has to be done during the meeting, and structuring a process that
continues in the following weeks. We have some experience with this, but
not at the level of what we need.
What about the IPCC plenary session scheduled to begin in Kenya at the
end of September?
From my perspective, I don't think a plenary session can easily take
place remotely. For the special report on 1.5C last year, it was like
100 hours in a single week, working around the clock with huddles and
contact groups. There are long, detailed discussions between authors and
delegates from governments. It's possible, but it can only work if all
government delegates and authors have high-quality internet access. And
that's not yet the case, especially in Africa.
How has the crisis affected your efforts to promote diversity and
broaden participation within the IPCC?
This crisis is revealing and exacerbating all sorts of inequalities.
It's an additional burden for scientists with children, and especially
the mothers. It's also exacerbating the challenges of working remotely
for those in the developing world.
But I think the strongest pressure is on early-career scientists and
students. They miss discussion, feedback and teamwork. They don't have
established networks. Their financial situation is less secure. PhD
students are concerned about graduating and having no job, and post-docs
depend on grants from projects that have been delayed. The level of
stress is unbelievable.
Given the potential scale of the economic, social and political changes
ahead due to COVID-19, will the assessment itself need to be updated?
We have not yet fully touched on that in our discussions, but the
elephant in the room is the relevance of the IPCC report to the current
situation. For instance, there might be insights with the economic
slowdown leading to reductions in emissions of short-lived climate
forcers [such as methane, nitrogen dioxide and black carbon]. There is
research taking place, but if it is to be part of the assessment we need
to have timely publications.
There are cut-off dates for the science that can be included in the
climate assessment. Are you worried about scientists getting their work
published in time?
Any delay to the IPCC schedule would involve an extension of cut-off
dates, giving authors the opportunity to assess very carefully new
literature coming out in the pandemic context.
Do you worry about the postponement of the United Nations climate and
biodiversity conferences to 2021?
No, they could never have taken place. We need to wait until something
like an affordable vaccination is available to get back to normal. I
think the postponement also gives more time for people to think very
carefully about the type of society we want to build together.
We are trying to keep up the momentum. When we keep these meetings
going, I think we create a sort of work bubble where people are
comfortable, where they can escape the ambient stress and focus on
something we've been working so hard for. So, it's also helpful, in a
way, to continue our work.
Are there lessons we can learn from the COVID-19 crisis?
I really hope that the lessons learnt from the lack of strategic
planning for this pandemic will push governments and the general public
to consider how to better address other, slow-onset crises.
I know it's creating a lot of anxiety, but it's also the right time to
consider, very seriously, solidarity among generations -- not just
protecting those who are most vulnerable to the coronavirus today, but
also protecting the young generations. What will be the legacy of our
actions today? That's the key issue related to climate change and
biodiversity.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01047-8
[Denial video 2:18]
*Cranky Uncle video: FLICC*
Apr 8, 2020
John Cook
An introduction to the five techniques of science denial: Fake experts,
Logical fallacies, Impossible expectations, Cherry picking, and
Conspiracy theories (FLICC).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNs2YMblqwU
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - April 10, 2007 *
In a debate with Senator John Kerry in Washington, DC, Newt Gingrich
acknowledges that climate change is real and largely caused by human
activity, though he insists that regulatory solutions are not needed to
stem emissions. By 2009, Gingrich would once again suggest that the
basic science of human-caused climate change was in dispute.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/197538-1
https://mediamatters.org/blog/2014/02/19/gingrich-didnt-always-take-issue-with-john-kerr/198125
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