[TheClimate.Vote] April 13, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*April 13, 2020*/

[Serious, with direct fix]
*Methane Levels Reach an All-Time High*
New NOAA analysis highlights an alarming trend; experts call for curbing 
pollution from oil and gas wells
By Jeremy Deaton, Nexus Media on April 12, 2020
A preliminary estimate from NOAA finds that levels of atmospheric 
methane, a potent heat-trapping gas, have hit an all-time high.

Methane is roughly 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, and while 
it stays in the atmosphere for only around a decade, as opposed to 
centuries, like CO2, its continued rise poses a major challenge to 
international climate goals.

"Here we are. It's 2020, and it's not only not dropping. It's not level. 
In fact, it's one of the fastest growth rates we've seen in the last 20 
years," said Drew Shindell, a climate scientist at Duke University.
To gauge methane levels, scientists regularly gathered samples of air 
from dozens of sites around the world and analyzed them at NOAA's Global 
Monitoring Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. By comparing measurements, 
they were able to determine the global average. In 2019, the 
concentration of atmospheric methane reached nearly 1875 parts per 
billion, the highest level since record-keeping began in 1983.

Even more troubling, 2019 saw the second-largest single-year leap in two 
decades. However, this figure may change, as preliminary estimates have 
trended high, said Ed Dlugokencky, a research chemist at NOAA. The final 
numbers will likely be unveiled in November after a more detailed analysis.

"We're still waiting to see what the final number is going to be, and 
it's going to be many months before we know that," Dlugokencky said. 
"But the fact that methane is increasing means it's further contributing 
to climate change."

Methane emissions primarily come from natural sources, like wetlands, 
and manmade sources, like farms and oil and gas wells. In wetlands, 
microbes excrete methane, an issue that humans can do little about. On 
farms, cows and sheep belch methane--a problem that people can address 
by raising fewer livestock.

"Eat less beef and less dairy. That's the most straightforward thing," 
Shindell said. "For the sake of our own health, we should be doing that 
anyway."

The easiest way to stem methane pollution, however, is to limit its 
release from oil and gas drilling sites, he said. Natural gas is mostly 
methane, and it is prone to leaking from wells. There are essentially 
two ways to deal with this problem. The first is to burn the natural gas 
that seeps out, which turns the methane into carbon dioxide. The second 
is to plug the leaks.

Companies can install recovery equipment that allows them to collect the 
natural gas that would otherwise seep out. They can then sell this gas, 
helping to offset the cost of the equipment. By one estimate, oil and 
gas firms could cut methane pollution by 45 percent at no net cost.

Despite this, many companies are reluctant to pay for recovery 
equipment. Firms will instead spend their limited capital on a new 
drilling site, for instance, which will yield a greater return on 
investment, Shindell said, though practices vary.

Major players--including Chevron, Exxon Mobil, BP and Shell--are taking 
steps to cap methane pollution, in part, to shore up their public image. 
However, smaller firms operating on thinner profit margins have less 
incentive to invest in recovery equipment. And the coronavirus could 
make the problem worse, as companies facing declining revenues could pay 
less attention to leaks. For this reason, advocates have called for 
greater regulation of the oil and gas sector.

"I think that has taken on urgency because in recent years we have 
witnessed a surge in production of oil and natural gas," said Devashree 
Saha, a policy analyst at the World Resources Institute. "Increasing the 
oversight and regulation of oil and gas production is the only way to go 
right now."

Methane levels were more or less flat from the late 1990s to the early 
2000s. They began to rise after 2006 thanks, at least in part, to more 
oil and gas drilling. Their recent uptick threatens the goals of the 
Paris Climate Agreement, as scientists had assumed that methane 
concentrations would stay level and then drop off when they projected 
how countries would meet their climate targets. Experts say that curbing 
methane emissions is needed to limit warming in the short term, buying 
humanity much needed time to adapt to climate change.

"You see the benefits in the first decade or two that you make cuts. You 
see fewer people dying from heat waves. You see less powerful storms and 
all of the stuff that comes from climate change," Shindell said. "As 
long as we're still using fossil fuels, we should at least not be 
leaking out lots and lots of methane."
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/methane-levels-reach-an-all-time-high/



[Notice clear skies]
*Coronavirus: plane-free skies spur research into warming impact of 
aviation*
Published on 09/04/2020,
As the Covid-19 pandemic response hits air traffic, scientists seize the 
opportunity to study how planes' contrails trap heat in the atmosphere
By Alister Doyle
Mass groundings of flights caused by the coronavirus are giving 
scientists a rare chance to study plane-free skies and pin down how far 
aviation stokes global warming.

In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, air traffic has slumped in a 
manner not seen since the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks on the United 
States in 2001.

Scientists with Nasa and European research groups hope to use clear 
skies to narrow down massive uncertainties about the warming effect of 
condensation trails – the wispy white lines that criss-cross the skies 
in the wake of jets engines.

Understanding planes' impact on the climate is urgent because commercial 
aviation generates about 2% of global carbon emissions and rising, 
mainly from burning jet fuel. Taking into account the impact of cloud 
formation in the upper atmosphere, however, could make the sector's 
responsibility for human-caused global warming as high as 4% or 5%.

"It is welcome that we can have an experiment with the Earth," said 
Ulrike Burkhardt, of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the German 
Aerospace Center (DLR). "But it's not the way we would want to design it."

Coronavirus has killed almost 90,000 people. Global demand for air 
travel is down 70% compared to last year and millions of jobs are at 
risk, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata), 
which represents airlines.

Researchers will use satellites and measurements by planes to study how 
clouds form naturally when thousands of flights are grounded, and 
contrast it with data from pre-coronavirus conditions of crowded skies. 
In the long term, that could help governments set better policies.

Airlines urge UN body to ease climate goals for 2020s as traffic collapses

Under social distancing guidance to prevent the spread of Covid-19, 
however, Burkhardt said it was difficult to assemble teams of 
technicians to install sensors on planes and find pilots to fly them.

"The air traffic system has not been diminished to the current levels 
since the days following 9/11," said Patrick Minnis of Nasa Langley 
Research Center, who is joining a research effort to study high-altitude 
clouds.

"Flight groundings at the scales initiated in response to the 
coronavirus pandemic are a significant opportunity to better quantify 
the impact of air traffic on cloud cover via contrail formation."

The new research builds on studies after the 9/11 suicide hijackings in 
the US grounded flights for a few days. One study, for instance, found 
that the plane-free skies had an impact on temperature variations in the 
United States, but some researchers say the findings might have been 
caused by natural variations.

Minnis and colleagues are trying to determine whether contrails increase 
the total amount of clouds in the sky, or suck up moisture that might 
have allowed clouds to form elsewhere. That would help to establish 
whether contrails and cloudiness linked to aviation had an overall 
warming or cooling effect on the planet.

Most low clouds such as cumulus are made up of tiny water droplets and 
reflect sunlight back into space from  their white tops. That helps to 
keep the planet cool.

By contrast, icy, high-altitude clouds formed by contrails have an 
overall warming effect because they trap more heat escaping from the 
Earth's surface than they reflect back into space.

Coronavirus lockdown gives a boost to citizen science projects

Contrails typically form at 8-13 kms above the Earth, depending on 
factors including temperature and moisture. They are less likely in 
tropical regions than the higher latitudes of Beijing, New York or London.

Between 2013 and 2019, aviation sector emissions grew from 733 million 
tonnes to 915 million tonnes of CO2, according to Iata.

Piers Forster,  professor of Physical Climate Change at the University 
of Leeds, said that the "total historic warming from aviation is roughly 
twice that from its carbon dioxide emissions alone".

"The total warming effect of aviation is still small: maybe 5% of the 
warming from all human activity," Forster said, factoring in cloud 
formation. "But as other emissions will hopefully decline, it is 
expected that aviation will be the dominant source of emissions within 
the next few decades…

"We are beginning to look at this. We are looking at contrails and 
general high level cloudiness changes" amid coronavirus, he said.

Airlines urge UN body to ease climate goals for 2020s as traffic collapses

Nations have agreed to offset the growth in carbon dioxide emissions 
from 2020 under the International Civil Aviation Organization (Icao). So 
far, there is no consensus to curb the overall warming effect, partly 
because the impact on cloud formation is too uncertain.

At an individual level, flying is one of the most climate polluting 
activities a person can undertake. Swedish teen climate activist Greta 
Thunberg has famously refused to fly, sparking a debate about the 
morality of air travel. There are some signs "flight shame" is dampening 
demand in wealthy parts of the world.

But Bernd Karcher, a colleague of Burkhardt at Germany's DLR, said the 
2020 slowdown was likely to be short-lived, in a long-term trend of more 
flights. He estimated that aviation contributed 4% to man-made global 
warming, with most of it from contrails rather than carbon dioxide and 
other greenhouse gases.

Understanding all impacts of aviation was vital to the policy response, 
Karcher said: "To meet the Paris climate goals, every tenth of a degree 
of reduced increase in surface temperatures matters."

The plane-free skies could help narrow uncertainties and so help guide 
longer term policies, he added. "Icao points to the need for scientific 
consensus, which, so it is argued, is absent in the case of non-CO2 
cloud effects."

He said that other ways to reduce non-Co2 effects could be cleaner fuels 
that produce fewer contrails, re-routing flights to regions or altitudes 
where contrails are less likely to form, or better aircraft design.
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/09/coronavirus-plane-free-skies-spur-research-warming-impact-aviation/
[or by not flying]


[See the simple answer]
*Are We Screwed On Climate Change?*
The answer is complicated. This comic strip explains why.
https://nexusmedianews.com/are-we-screwed-on-climate-change-ab539ab98ee4



[Now is the time to plan ahead]
*This Pandemic Won't Save the Climate From Big Oil*
BY ADAM HANIEH
Global oil prices have plummeted in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. 
But that doesn't mean the giants of the industry are facing terminal 
decline: Big Oil could bounce back stronger than ever...
- -
It is certain that all parts of the fossil fuel industry will face a 
severe crisis over the remainder of this year and into 2021. But what 
might this mean for our ecological future? Unfortunately, unless fossil 
capital can be effectively challenged now, a wave of bankruptcies in the 
energy sector is actually likely to accelerate the further 
centralization of control by the largest oil majors.

The mega-firms collectively known as "Big Oil" -- Exxon, Shell, BP, and 
a handful of others -- are much better positioned to survive this crisis 
than smaller producers. They tend to be vertically integrated firms: in 
other words, they are active across the entire energy value chain, 
including refining, and thus will have some of their losses in crude 
production offset by the lower cost of fuel inputs for their downstream 
operations. As truly global firms, they have reserves and assets 
distributed across the world, not solely in the higher-cost shale fields 
of the United States. Financially, these firms also tend to have much 
deeper pockets, and their prospects are deeply entwined with broader 
financial markets (including pension funds). In the UK, for example, BP 
and Shell account for a remarkable one-fifth of all FTSE dividends.

This scenario is precisely the one that leading financial firms are 
expecting to see unfold over the next twelve to eighteen months. Goldman 
Sachs, for example, noted recently that while the current crisis will 
undoubtedly "be a game changer for the industry," the probable outcome 
is that the largest firms will consolidate the best assets and shed the 
worst: "When the industry emerges from this downturn, there will be 
fewer companies of higher asset quality."

Interindustry disputes over state support to the ailing shale industry 
in the United States also reflect this possible outcome. Here, as Justin 
Mikulka has meticulously documented, large oil majors such as Exxon have 
sought to hasten the collapse of smaller producers and have vigorously 
opposed any state support to the shale industry.

Mikulka cites the CEO of one shale firm, Pioneer Natural Resources, who 
told CNBC that efforts to engage the Trump administration in support of 
shale producers were not going well: "We've had opposition from Exxon 
who controls API [American Petroleum Institute] and the TXOGA [Texas Oil 
and Gas Association] . . . they prefer all the independents to go 
bankrupt and pick up the scraps."

*Exploiting the Crisis*
For this reason, the current moment presents a real danger for climate 
justice campaigns. In the United States, for example, the Trump 
administration has agreed to loosen environmental regulations for power 
plants, factories, and other industrial facilities. This will 
essentially mean that these polluters are allowed to "self-monitor" 
their own pollution levels, according to a recent report in the New York 
Times.

The Environmental Protection Agency has rolled out this new policy as 
part of its plan for addressing the COVID-19 crisis. Tellingly, however, 
it was also one of the key demands raised by the American Petroleum 
Institute in a letter sent by the Big Oil lobbyists to the Trump 
administration on March 20. It is not just the fossil fuel industry that 
is attempting to use this crisis to roll back environmental regulations: 
large banks and financial firms are also pushing for a relaxation on 
climate change reporting requirements, and a delay to climate change 
"stress tests."

A scenario that sees the undermining of (already inadequate) 
environmental regulations and a wave of industry consolidation will 
ultimately place Big Oil in a stronger position to capitalize on a 
post-viral world. While oil prices are today at historically low levels, 
they will not remain there over the longer term. One of the critical 
consequences of today's vast destruction in the demand for oil is that 
most leading oil companies are announcing savage cuts to their capital 
expenditure (CAPEX) on oil exploration and project development.

For the oil majors, these initial cuts have averaged around 20 percent 
over the last few weeks. They are even higher in the shale industry, 
where one energy consultant expects a 40 percent drop in spending over 
2020. It takes considerable time and expense to restart or bring new oil 
production online after projects have been halted or oil wells shut in: 
the effects of today's cutbacks to CAPEX will be felt in supply 
constraints for some time in the future.

This creates a strong possibility of a sharp rebound in prices as we 
emerge from this crisis -- an outcome that will incentivize a renewed 
wave of investment and expansion in fossil fuels globally (much as 
happened through the recent history of US shale production).

*Global Fortunes*
How might this be reflected beyond the United States and the fortunes of 
the large, globally diversified oil majors? Here, we also need to 
differentiate between the more powerful oil-producing states and other 
poorer oil exporters. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab 
Emirates, and other Gulf states will certainly experience rising 
deficits and greater pressure on government spending in a prolonged 
period of low oil prices.

These states, however, have relatively low levels of existing debt and 
can borrow quite cheaply on international markets. The Gulf's particular 
class structure -- an overwhelming reliance on temporary migrant workers 
that make up more than 50 percent of the region's labor force -- also 
means that any sharp economic contraction can be partially displaced 
through simply sending migrant workers home (as happened in Dubai in the 
aftermath of the 2008 crisis). Indeed, in a parallel to the possible 
strengthening of "Big Oil" through this crisis, the Gulf states could 
see their position further consolidated if assets in neighboring 
countries become more cheaply available in a post-viral world.

One important market here is India, where companies headquartered in the 
Gulf are continuing to make significant inroads in expectation of a boom 
in future energy demand. The Gulf's strategic insertion within trade and 
financial networks connected to China is also important to highlight. 
Crude oil and petrochemicals remain central to these connections, and 
work on key projects in these sectors is continuing throughout the 
current crisis. These projects include Abu Dhabi's Ruwais Refinery, 
which will be the largest integrated refinery and petrochemical plant in 
the world on completion.

Poorer oil exporters will face much more serious problems as a result of 
the current plunge in oil prices. Such countries include Ecuador, 
Venezuela, and Iran -- the latter two are also contending with the 
impact of savage US-imposed sanctions. States such as Nigeria -- which 
depends upon oil for 57 percent of government revenue, and over 90 
percent of foreign-exchange earnings -- will find it exceedingly 
difficult to meet budgetary demands. This will have deadly consequences 
in the midst of the pandemic. Similarly, for Iraq, where oil exports 
make up 90 percent of government revenues and a large part of the 
population depends upon the public sector for wages or pensions, it is 
difficult to see how the expected shortfall in funding will be addressed.

*Strange Bedfellows*
The problems these countries face, however, should not be blamed on low 
oil prices. Long-standing legacies of colonialism, the destruction 
wrought by Western-led wars and occupation, and the relations of debt 
and dependency that bind these countries to the centers of the global 
economy need to be placed up front in tackling this pandemic.

Nigeria, for example, may depend on oil for a large proportion of 
government revenues, but more than half of these revenues are spent 
simply on servicing existing foreign debt. Any attempt to move beyond 
fossil fuel dependency at the global level must challenge this 
combustible mix of oil, debt, and finance.

At time of writing, there is talk of a possible deal between the United 
States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia around oil production levels. It is 
unlikely that such a deal would have any sustained effect on the price 
of oil, given the vast destruction of demand that has occurred in recent 
weeks. Some observers have noted the irony of seeing leading 
Republicans, who had previously called for the dismantling of OPEC 
because of its "cartel"-like behavior, now demanding greater market 
collusion with Saudi Arabia and Russia over prices.

There is no doubt that the mutually reinforcing crises of the COVID-19 
pandemic and the global economic downturn are provoking a whole range of 
unexpected political realignments, strange bedfellows, and new openings 
for political change. But this moment is also one where previously 
existing arrangements may be reworked and consolidated in the interests 
of the most powerful.

We face the very real danger of an emboldened and resurgent oil 
industry, positioned ever more centrally within our political and 
economic systems. That would be a disastrous outcome of the current 
pandemic.
Many thanks to Jeffrey R. Webber for helpful suggestions on this piece.
https://jacobinmag.com/2020/04/big-oil-companies-climate-change-pandemic


[great speeches from the video archive]
*Climate Change: Why you should be angry and why anger isn't enough: 
John Ashton at TEDxBedfordSchool*
Aug 20, 2013
TEDx Talks
About the Speaker: One of the world's top climate diplomats, John Ashton 
is now an independent commentator and adviser on the politics of climate 
change. From 2006-12 he served as Special Representative for Climate 
Change to three successive UK Foreign Secretaries, spanning the current 
Coalition and the previous Labour Government. He was a cofounder and, 
from 2004-6, the first Chief Executive of the think tank E3G. From 
1978-2002, after a brief period as a research astronomer, he was a 
career diplomat, with a particular focus on China. He is a visiting 
professor at the London University School of Oriental and African 
Studies, and a Distinguished Policy Fellow at the Grantham Institute for 
Climate Change at Imperial College.

About the Talk: If you are under 30 today, you are on track to find out 
in your lifetime what unmanageable climate change will be like. 
Business,politics and economics seem to have no response. What is going 
wrong and how can you use your voice if you want this fixed in time to 
fix your future?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tq2Znc21TWY



[legacy of taint]
*S. Fred Singer (Deceased)*
Credentials
B.E.E. (Electrical Engineering), Ohio State University.
A.M. and Ph.D. (Physics), Princeton University.
Background
Siegfried Frederick Singer (S. Fred Singer) was a former space scientist 
and government scientific administrator. He passed away in 2020 at the 
age of 95.

Singer founded the Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) in 
1990, a 501(c)(3) "educational group" focusing on global warming denial. 
According to their website, SEPP also reports to cover topics such as 
nuclear radiation, DDT, science and regulation at EPA, energy policy, 
and space exploration.

According to SEPP, "sound, credible science must form the basis for 
health and environmental decisions that affect millions of people and 
cost tens of billions of dollars every year."..

Leaked documents obtained by DeSmog revealed that Fred Singer had also 
been receiving $5,000 a month from the Heartland Institute. With the 
help of Craig Idso, Singer helped develop the Heartland Institute's 
"Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC),"...
more at - https://www.desmogblog.com/s-fred-singer



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming  - April 13, 2012 *

In the Spokane, Washington Spokesman-Review, "Democracy Now" host Amy 
Goodman observes: "The Pentagon knows it. The world's largest insurers 
know it. Now, governments may be overthrown because of it. It is climate 
change, and it is real. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration, last month was the hottest March on record 
for the United States since 1895, when records were first kept, with 
average temperatures of 8.6 degrees above average. More than 15,000 
March high-temperature records were broken nationally. Drought, 
wildfires, tornadoes and other extreme weather events are already 
plaguing the country."
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2012/apr/13/climate-change-a-hot-issue/


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