[TheClimate.Vote] August 7, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Fri Aug 7 09:11:57 EDT 2020

/*August  7, 2020*/

[more than 190% of average season]
*CSU researchers now predicting extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane 
season
*05 Aug, 2020 - [updated report]
By CSU University Communications Staff
Colorado State University hurricane researchers have increased their 
forecast and now predict an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season 
in 2020, citing very warm sea surface temperatures and very low wind 
shear in the tropical Atlantic as primary factors. Tropical Atlantic sea 
surface temperatures averaged over the past month are at their 
fourth-highest levels since 1982, trailing only the very active Atlantic 
hurricane seasons of 2005, 2010 and 2017. Warmer-than-normal sea surface 
temperatures provide more fuel for tropical cyclone formation and 
intensification. They are also associated with a more unstable 
atmosphere as well as moister air, both of which favor organized 
thunderstorm activity that is necessary for hurricane development.

Vertical wind shear during July was also extremely weak across the 
tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Strong vertical wind shear tears apart 
hurricanes as they are trying to develop and intensify, and vertical 
reduced wind shear aids in hurricane development. When vertical wind 
shear is low in July, it also tends to be low during the peak of the 
Atlantic hurricane season from August-October.

The tropical eastern and central Pacific currently has cool neutral ENSO 
conditions, that is, the water temperatures are slightly below average. 
CSU anticipates that we will either continue to have cool neutral ENSO 
conditions or potentially weak La Nina conditions for the peak of the 
Atlantic hurricane season. El Nino tends to increase upper-level 
westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing 
apart hurricanes as they try to form. Atlantic hurricane seasons tend to 
be much more active when the tropical Pacific has either cool neutral or 
La Nina conditions.

*24 named storms*
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 24 named storms 
in 2020, including the nine named storms that have already formed 
(Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and 
Isaias). Of those, researchers expect 12 to become hurricanes (including 
the two that have already formed, Hanna and Isaias) and five to reach 
major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained 
winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. Twelve hurricanes is the most 
the team has ever predicted in their August forecast. This is an 
increase from the early July seasonal forecast which predicted 20 named 
storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

The team based this forecast on a statistical model that uses 
approximately 40 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea 
surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels 
(the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), 
El Nino (warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific), 
and other factors.

So far, the 2020 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar 
to 1966, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2017. "All of these seasons were 
very active in the Atlantic basin, with several (most notably 1995, 2005 
and 2017) being extremely active," said Phil Klotzbach, research 
scientist in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author 
of the report...
The team predicts that 2020 hurricane activity will be about 190 percent 
of the average season. By comparison, 2019's hurricane activity was 
about 120 percent of the average season...
- -
*Landfalling probability included in report*
The report also includes the post-Aug. 4 probability of major hurricanes 
making landfall in the continental U.S. and Caribbean:

    74 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (full-season average for
    the last century is 52 percent)
    49 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula
    (full-season average for the last century is 31 percent)
    48 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to
    Brownsville (full-season average for the last century is 30 percent)
    63 percent for the Caribbean (full-season average for the last
    century is 42 percent)...

- -
*Extended range Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast for 2020*
Released Aug. 5, 2020
Tropical Cyclone Parameters Extended Range
(1981-2010 Climatological Average Forecast for 2020 in parentheses)

    Named Storms (12.1) 24
    Named Storm Days (59.4) 100
    Hurricanes (6.4) 12
    Hurricane Days (24.2) 45
    Major Hurricanes (2.7) 5
    Major Hurricane Days (6.2) 11
    Accumulated Cyclone Energy (106) 200
    Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (116%) 215

- more at -
https://engr.source.colostate.edu/csu-researchers-now-predicting-extremely-active-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season/

- -

[Same data displayed in colorful visuals with commercials]
*Colorado State University Raises 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season 
Forecast to 24 Named Storms, Second Most on Record*
By weather.com meteorologists 2 days ago
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast

[Colorado Wildfire 5% contained]
*Pine Gulch Fire grows to nearly 12,000 acres amid dry, windy conditions*
Wildfire in rough terrain near Grand Junction could spread quickly, 
officials said
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/08/06/pine-gulch-wildfire-update-grand-junction/

[Alps melting]
*Italian homes evacuated over risk of Mont Blanc glacier collapse*
Roads near Courmayeur closed to tourists because of threat from falling 
Planpincieux ice
6 Aug 2020
Some 65 people, including 50 tourists, have left homes in Val Ferret, 
the hamlet beneath the glacier. Roads have been closed to traffic and 
pedestrians.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/06/italian-homes-evacuated-risk-mont-blanc-glacier-ice-planpincieux

[A climate Overton window ]
*In tackling the global climate crisis, doom and optimism are both 
dangerous traps*
Overheated polemics won't solve this emergency - and the apocalypse is a 
needlessly high bar for action..
- -
This crisis will not be solved quickly or easily, and overheated 
polemics are not helping. While it won't be good for us, it also won't 
be the literal end of the world. But the apocalypse is a needlessly high 
bar to take action. Though most of the challenges we overcome as a 
species are not existential risks, they are nonetheless critically 
important. We see a real risk that dwelling on doom may serve to 
obstruct climate action rather than motivating it, promoting fatalism 
and further polarisation. There is also evidence that fear is not a very 
effective tool to engage people around the climate. But dismissing the 
severity of climate impacts and the real possibility of worst-case 
outcomes is also an extremely dangerous gamble. The risks are serious 
enough, and we need a common understanding of the urgent need to tackle 
them.

Zeke Hausfather is director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough 
Institute in Oakland, California. Richard Betts is head of climate 
impacts research at the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/06/global-climate-crisis-doom-optimism-emergency

[Another thing to change]
*Why Sprawl Could Be The Next Big Climate Change Battle*
August 6, 2020
LAUREN SOMMER
President Trump is attacking Democrats on a new front: suburbia.

"They want to eliminate single-family zoning, bringing who knows into 
your suburbs," Trump said on a July campaign call...
- -
"I think the lesson for the rest of the country is that even in 
California's liberal suburban enclaves with Black Lives Matter signs 
everywhere, residents and local elected officials are still hostile to 
opening their communities up to housing that would bring people with 
diverse backgrounds and incomes," says Ethan Elkind, director of the 
climate program at University of California, Berkeley's law school.

*NIMBY vs. YIMBY*
In California, attempts to overhaul single-family zoning have fallen 
short. Often it's because they failed to win over Democrats, even those 
who supported the state's groundbreaking goals for boosting renewable 
energy and cutting carbon emissions.

"I think climate change is one of the real serious issues that we have 
to deal with," says Susan Kirsch, a community organizer in Mill Valley, 
Calif. "But I don't think we need to be forcing draconian measures, 
taking away local control and local preferences, to be able to solve 
that problem."

In Kirsch's driveway, an electric Toyota Prius is plugged into a 
charger. Solar panels cover her roof. Single-family homes like hers make 
up much of Mill Valley, a city located about half an hour north of San 
Francisco, where the median price is about $1.5 million...
- -
*Driving up emissions*
Overall, carbon emissions are declining in California, largely thanks to 
the rise of renewable energy such as solar power. But emissions from 
transportation are still going up, a clear obstacle to the state's goal 
of becoming carbon neutral by 2045.

"If you really want to address the climate problem, we're going to need 
our neighborhoods to be built in a different way," says Elkind. "We just 
simply cannot meet our near-term and certainly our long-term climate 
goals unless we address the land use question."

Studies show that residents of large cities have lower carbon 
footprints, generally. Residents in suburbs near a large city can have 
50% higher transportation emissions than city residents...
- -
"I think that there's undertones in, well, we don't want our 
neighborhoods to change," says Sanchez. "And to me, I'm left with a 
question mark. What's the kind of change you don't want to come to your 
neighborhood? What's the expectation that if you densify, a certain 
demographic is going to come to your neighborhood?"

Eliminating single-family zoning alone won't automatically lead to 
greater racial equity, he says. Increasing development runs the risk of 
gentrification and displacement, so housing justice advocates say there 
needs to be strong affordable housing policies and tenant protections, 
as well as ensuring that communities of color are directly part of the 
planning process.

"How we make these decisions is really key," says Tiffany Eng of the 
California Environmental Justice Alliance. "We have to ask ourselves who 
is benefiting from this housing? Who is losing? And what communities are 
centered?"

One of the toughest things in the Minneapolis debate, Bender says, was 
helping residents picture how their neighborhoods could change. Denser 
zoning challenges the American ideal of a big suburban home.

Bender says: "When you start to take on those kinds of ingrained 
assumptions that somehow that's better, that's where we really start to 
open up our minds to the possibility that our city can evolve to fit 
future needs of all of our residents."
https://www.npr.org/2020/08/06/812199726/why-sprawl-could-be-the-next-big-climate-change-battle

[Dave Roberts is a climate philosopher]
*How to drive fossil fuels out of the US economy, quickly*
The US has everything it needs to decarbonize by 2035.
By David Roberts @drvox david at vox.com  Aug 6, 2020...
- -
The US could be a more prosperous, healthier, and pleasant place to live.

"For so long we've been sold the lie that we have to choose between a 
livable planet and a thriving, equitable economy," says Varshini 
Prakash, executive director of the Sunrise Movement. "The Rewiring 
America Plan puts that lie to rest once and for all. We can achieve a 
just transition to a better world out of the wreckage of this economic 
crisis."

That's the story that needs to be told about tackling climate change. 
Not a story of privation or giving things up. Not a story of economic 
decline or inexorable ecological doom. A story about a better 
electrified future that is already on the way.

We can muster the effort and investment over the next 10 to 15 years to 
accelerate it, to reach it in time to avert the worst of climate change. 
We can have clean air, clean energy, a prosperous economy, and a stable 
climate, all the things we want, if we're just willing to do the work.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify

[Politician gets caught - hand slapped from RL Miller]
*Tim Ryan may be removed from fossil fuel pledge*
"There are multiple violations here," a No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge 
organizer said.
Emily Atkin
Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH) will be removed from the No Fossil Fuel 
Money Pledge if he does not return campaign donations he received from 
the scandal-plagued electric utility FirstEnergy, pledge organizers told 
HEATED on Wednesday.

"There are multiple violations here," said Collin Rees, a senior 
campaigner with Oil Change U.S., the organization behind the 
increasingly popular climate pledge. Rees was referring to HEATED's 
Tuesday article showing Ryan and his leadership PAC have taken a 
combined $27,500 from FirstEnergy's corporate PAC and company executives 
during the 2020 election cycle.

Ryan's campaign "will have one week to return or rectify the donations," 
Rees said. "If they don't, they'll be removed from the pledge."

Ryan's office did not return a request for comment.
- -
To date, the pledge has been signed by more than 2,000 candidates and 
elected officials across the country, including more than 50 members of 
Congress and Joe Biden. With their signature, pledge-takers promise not 
to knowingly accept more than $200 from "PACs, lobbyists, or SEC-named 
executives of fossil fuel companies—companies whose primary business is 
the extraction, processing, distribution, or sale of oil, gas, or coal."...
- -
"Tim Ryan really needs to rethink what he's doing here," Miller said. 
"This looks to be the most corrupt, appalling utility I've ever seen."

The fact that Ryan signed the No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge makes his 
acceptance of FirstEnergy money particularly abominable, Miller said. 
But she's also surprised any Democrat is still taking the utility's 
money, given the FBI allegations centered upon it.

"The moment that story first blew up, every single Democrat who says 
they care about climate action needed to return that money. And they 
haven't," said Miller, who is also a member of the Democratic National 
Committee.

"It's one thing for the Democratic Party to declare on its platform that 
we're against fossil fuel subsidies," she said. "It's another thing for 
Democrats to be OK with fossil fuel fucking bribes."

If Ryan or his Democrats colleagues do wind up returning FirstEnergy's 
contributions, Miller said, she hopes they money goes "not back to the 
FirstEnergy, but to an environmental justice group in Cleveland or 
Columbus fighting for the right to breathe."...
https://heated.world/p/update-tim-ryan-may-be-removed-from

[fire projections for sale]
*Climate Change and Wildfires: Projecting Future Wildfire Potential*
Posted on August 6, 2020
August 6, 2020 - Four Twenty Seven Report. Wildfires are complex 
physical phenomena that come at extraordinary costs to human and natural 
systems. Climate change is already making wildfires more severe and this 
new research finds that it will lead to more days with high wildfire 
potential in areas already prone to wildfires, and create hotter and 
drier conditions that will expose entirely new areas. Understanding 
which areas are exposed to changing wildfire conditions will help 
leaders in government, finance and public health to mitigate 
catastrophic loss. This report explores Four Twenty Seven's new 
methodology for assessing global wildfire potential, identifying 
regional trends and hot spots.
The 2019-2020 Australian bushfires raged for seven months, killed more 
than 30 people, hospitalized thousands more, and burned more than 10 
million hectares of land. While the full financial and ecological impact 
is still unknown, costs from those fires are likely to exceed $4.4 
billion. Meanwhile, ten of the largest wildfires in Arizona's history 
occurred in the last eight years and nine of California's largest 
wildfires occurred in just the last seven years. Beyond direct losses 
and disruption from damage to buildings and infrastructure, air 
pollution from wildfires has led to healthcare costs in excess of $100 
billion in losses per year in the United States. Leaders in government, 
finance, and public health need to understand how and where climate 
change will further heighten wildfire potential because of the serious 
threat wildfires pose to societies, economies, and natural systems.

Download the report from 
http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Projecting-Future-Wildfire-Potential_427_8.2020-2.pdf

This new report, Climate Change and Wildfires: Projecting Future 
Wildfire Potential, outlines Four Twenty Seven's approach to quantifying 
global wildfire potential, capturing both absolute and relative changes 
in frequency and severity by 2030-2040.  Wildfire potential refers to 
meteorological conditions and vegetative fuel sources that are conducive 
to wildfires. Using a proprietary methodology submitted for peer review, 
our analytics link climate drivers such as changing temperature and 
precipitation patterns with the availability of vegetative fuels to 
assess wildfire potential in the future.

The analysis also explores key regions exposed to increasing wildfire 
potential and discusses the implications for financial stakeholders and 
communities. Our analytics affirm common understanding about locations 
exposed to wildfire, providing an indication of the increasing severity 
and frequency of wildfires in areas already prone to these events. The 
report also offers insight into areas that may have less obvious 
exposure, but are likely to have higher wildfire potential over time. 
Preparing for wildfires is a local, and often regional effort. The 
relatively high spatial granularity of our results (~25 kilometers) 
enables decision-makers to evaluate wildfire potential at a useful scale.

*Key Findings:*
Four Twenty Seven developed a first-of-its-kind global dataset 
projecting changes to wildfire potential under a changing climate, at a 
granularity of about 25 x 25 kilometers.
In areas already exposed to wildfires, by 2030-2040 climate change will 
prolong wildfire seasons, adding up to three months of days with high 
wildfire potential in Western Australia, over two months in regions of 
northern California and a month in European countries including Spain, 
Portugal and Greece.
New wildfire risks will emerge in historically wet and cool regions, 
such as Siberia, which is projected to have 20 more days of high 
wildfire potential in 2030-2040.
Globally, western portions of the Amazon and Southeast Asia will 
experience the largest relative increases in wildfire severity, further 
threatening crucial biodiversity hotspots and carbon sinks.
Confronting this new risk will take unprecedented resources and new 
approaches in regions not familiar with wildfires and worsening wildfire 
seasons will continue to threaten already limited resources in currently 
exposed areas.
http://427mt.com/2020/08/06/projecting-future-wildfire-potential/

full 15 page report:- 
http://427mt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Projecting-Future-Wildfire-Potential_427_8.2020-1.pdf

[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - August 7, 2003 *

In a speech at New York University, Al Gore condemns the Bush 
administration's dishonesty on climate policy and foreign policy.

http://www.c-span.org/video/?177732-1/former-vice-president-speech

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