[TheClimate.Vote] December 7, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*December 7, 2020*/

[global heat destabilization]
*A warning on climate and the risk of societal collapse*
Scientists and academics including Prof Gesa Weyhenmeyer and Prof Will 
Steffen argue that we must discuss the threat of societal disruption in 
order to prepare for it
As scientists and scholars from around the world, we call on 
policymakers to engage with the risk of disruption and even collapse of 
societies. After five years failing to reduce emissions in line with the 
Paris climate accord, we must now face the consequences. While bold and 
fair efforts to cut emissions and naturally drawdown carbon are 
essential, researchers in many areas consider societal collapse a 
credible scenario this century. Different views exist on the location, 
extent, timing, permanence and cause of disruptions, but the way modern 
societies exploit people and nature is a common concern.

Only if policymakers begin to discuss this threat of societal collapse 
might we begin to reduce its likelihood, speed, severity, harm to the 
most vulnerable - and to nature.
Some armed services already see collapse as an important scenario. 
Surveys show many people now anticipate societal collapse. Sadly, that 
is the experience of many communities in the global south. However, it 
is not well reported in the media, and mostly absent from civil society 
and politics. People who care about environmental and humanitarian 
issues should not be discouraged from discussing the risks of societal 
disruption or collapse. Ill-informed speculations about impacts on 
mental health and motivation will not support serious discussion. That 
risks betraying thousands of activists whose anticipation of collapse is 
part of their motivation to push for change on climate, ecology and 
social justice.

Some of us believe that a transition to a new society may be possible. 
That will involve bold action to reduce damage to the climate, nature 
and society, including preparations for disruptions to everyday life. We 
are united in regarding efforts to suppress discussion of collapse as 
hindering the possibility of that transition.

We have experienced how emotionally challenging it is to recognise the 
damage being done, along with the growing threat to our own way of life. 
We also know the great sense of fellowship that can arise. It is time to 
have these difficult conversations, so we can reduce our complicity in 
the harm, and make the best of a turbulent future.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/dec/06/a-warning-on-climate-and-the-risk-of-societal-collapse

- -

[University of Cumbria - list of signees]

Sunday, 6 December 2020
*International Scholars Warning on Societal Disruption and Collapse*
A public letter signed by over 250 scientists and scholars from 30 
countries, calls on policy makers to engage more with the growing risk 
of societal disruption and collapse due to damage to the climate and 
environment. The letter invites focus on how to slow, prepare for, and 
help those already suffering from, such disruptions. The signatories are 
specialists in a range of subject areas that relate to this challenge, 
who commonly believe it is time to listen to all the scholarship on 
humanity's predicament.
http://iflas.blogspot.com/

- -

[Postscript to letter]
*Professor Jem Bendell of the University of Cumbria is one of the 
signatories.* He explains:
"Over 250 scientists and scholars have issued a warning to humanity that 
we need to make the increasing disruption from climate change a focus of 
research and policy. We come from dozens of countries and subject 
disciplines and perceive a resistance by the establishment to serious 
engagement in adapting to the increasing disruptions to food, water, 
health, and the economy. It is time to listen to the scholarship and try 
to reduce harm from societal disruption and even collapse. I believe the 
growing movement for Deep Adaptation to societal breakdown can be part 
of that agenda."

Total number of caveats upon signing:

Dr Wanchat Theeranaew: Our civilization is much more fragile than we 
believe. We are now entering the change of Earth System toward a new 
equilibrium. This alone will be extremely harmful to our civilization 
since all of our infrastructures were constructed based on stability.

Dr Wolfgang Knorr: This is not a statement of preference for any 
particular viewpoint within the broad debate of the Climate and 
Ecological Emergency, but rather an expression of a wish to broaden the 
debate as far as possible.

Dr Gwen Fischer: Climate disruption is happening and people's lives are 
unraveling.

Dr Mark Charlesworth: Having made clear that societal collapse cannot be 
dismissed in Charlesworth M and Okereke, C (2010) Policy responses to 
rapid climate change: An epistemological critique of dominant 
approaches, Global Environmental Change, 20(1), 121-129

Dr Phoebe Barnard: We can be prepared, or caught unawares. Discussion 
and preparedness for a full range of possibilities is essential, 
especially where partial (or even temporary) societal collapse will 
widen existing inequalities.

Professor Ira Allen: Failure to consciously negotiate what is, in 
effect, already a staggered collapse of the various systems that support 
humans' current forms of life will allow those most concerned with 
profiting off of this ruination to succeed, further immiserating the many.

Professor John Adams: We can no longer afford to govern through 
cognitive dissonance.
http://iflas.blogspot.com/



[too soon, every month a record]

*Another Month on a Warming Planet: Record-Hot November*
European scientists reported that November's global temperatures were 
the highest ever, surpassing the previous record, set in 2016 and 2019...
- -
The Copernicus service said that so far this year, temperatures were on 
par with 2016, which is the hottest year on record. Barring a 
significant drop in global temperatures in December, 2020 was likely to 
remain tied with 2016 or even become the warmest on record by a small 
margin, the service said...
- -
"Something to keep in mind is that the average global temperature is 
increasing at an unprecedented rate due to human influences," she said. 
"That's the main factor here."

"So we will continue to see these record-breaking temperatures even when 
we have climate phases, like La Niña, that could bring cooler temperatures."

The Copernicus service scientists said the warm conditions in the Arctic 
last month had slowed the freeze-up of ice in the Arctic Oce4an. The 
extent of sea-ice coverage was the second lowest for a November since 
satellites began observing the region in 1979. A slower freeze-up could 
lead to thinner ice and thus more melting in the late spring and summer.

The Arctic has been extraordinarily warm for much of the year, part of a 
long-term trend in which the region is warming significantly faster than 
other areas of the world. The warmth contributed to extensive wildfires 
in Siberia during the summer and led to the second-lowest minimum 
sea-ice extent for a September, the end of the summer melting season...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/07/climate/climate-change-hottest-november.html



[Arctic changes]
*Increased Heat From Arctic Rivers Is Melting Sea Ice in the Arctic 
Ocean and Warming the Atmosphere*
By UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS - DECEMBER 5, 2020
A new study shows that increased heat from Arctic rivers is melting sea 
ice in the Arctic Ocean and warming the atmosphere...

According to the research, major Arctic rivers contribute significantly 
more heat to the Arctic Ocean than they did in 1980. River heat is 
responsible for up to 10% of the total sea ice loss that occurred from 
1980 to 2015 over the shelf region of the Arctic Ocean.

That melt is equivalent to about 120,000 square miles of 1-meter thick 
ice. That is roughly 20% the size of Alaska, explained Igor Polyakov, 
co-author and oceanographer at the University of Alaska Fairbanks' 
International Arctic Research Center and Finnish Meteorological Institute.

Rivers have the greatest impact during spring breakup. The warming water 
dumps into the ice-covered Arctic Ocean and spreads below the ice, 
decaying it. Once the sea ice melts, the warm water begins heating the 
atmosphere...
- -
As rivers heat up, more heat will flow into the Arctic Ocean, melting 
more sea ice and accelerating Arctic warming.

Rivers are just one of many heat sources now warming the Arctic Ocean. 
The entire Arctic system is in an extremely anomalous state as global 
air temperatures rise and warm Atlantic and Pacific water enters the 
region, decaying sea ice even in the middle of winter. All these 
components work together, causing positive feedback loops that speed up 
warming in the Arctic.

"It's very alarming because all these changes are accelerating," said 
Polyakov. "The rapid changes are just incredible in the last decade or so."
https://scitechdaily.com/increased-heat-from-arctic-rivers-is-melting-sea-ice-in-the-arctic-ocean-and-warming-the-atmosphere/



[video lecture with cat]
*How the Huge & Intense "Godzilla" Dust Storm of 2020 Arose from Record 
Low Arctic Sea Ice:  2 parts*
Dec 5, 2020
Paul Beckwith

We all know that 2020 is a year for the record books, at least until we 
experience 2021, however most people are unaware of the record 
shattering "Godzilla" dust storm in the summer. A new peer-reviewed 
paper examines how this dust storm, covering the largest area in the 
satellite era, and with the largest sunlight blocking capacity (aerosol 
optical depth (2x thicker dust than ever before) was generated by the 
Sahara Desert in Africa and crossed thousands of km across the Atlantic 
Ocean to darken the skies in the Caribbean, Latin America, the Gulf of 
Mexico, into the southern USA.

I discuss how the Arctic Ocean sea ice was at a record low at the time, 
slowing and distorting the jet stream, creating a powerful ridge (high 
pressure) area just to the northwest of Africa, and a corresponding 
trough (low pressure) to the southwest of the ridge, and thus over 
Africa. This bimodal pressure situation acted as meshed gears, driving 
dust thermally converted upwards from the Sahara desert, entraining it 
into the exceptionally powerful African Easterly Jet at about 6 km 
altitude. This dust was then carried thousands of km across the Atlantic 
to the USA, setting a new record for the area covered and also for the 
dust thickness (thus sunlight blocking capability). Surprisingly, this 
dust did not suppress tropical storms enough to stop the record breaking 
tropical storm season (30 named storms, from Arthur to Iota). I think 
that the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic was so 
far above the threshold temperature for storm amplification (26.5 C) 
that the dust cooling of the SST was insufficient to suppress the 30 
storms; who knows, without the dust maybe there would have been 35 storms?
https://youtu.be/nsikpqVyv90 - part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy1qD7bZV40 - part 2

- -

[source matter from Scripts Institute of Oceanography]
*IS ARCTIC WARMING BEHIND A MONSTER SAHARAN DUST STORM?*
A June 2020 event set a record for size of a dust mass sent across the 
Atlantic
Robert Monroe - Dec 01, 2020
The Sahara Desert is the world's biggest source of dust and in 2020, it 
broke the June record for sending the largest and thickest dust cloud 
toward the Americas.
Amato Evan, an atmospheric scientist at Scripps Institution of 
Oceanography at UC San Diego, and colleagues have broken down the 
conditions that led to what some researchers call the "Godzilla" dust 
storm of 2020.

The June 2020 dust storm set records in terms of its geographic size and 
its aerosol optical depth - essentially a measure of its thickness 
determined by the ability of satellites to see through it. It reached an 
altitude of 6,000 meters (19,600 feet). In certain locations over the 
Atlantic Ocean, its thickness was double what had ever been recorded 
during the month of June during the history of the satellite record, 
which dates back to 1995.

The researchers analyzed what made it happen in a study appearing today 
in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Evan, lead author Diana Francis of Khalifa University of Science and 
Technology in the United Arab Emirates, and colleagues attributed the 
dust storm's magnitude to conditions set up by the development of a type 
of high-pressure system called a subtropical high off the coast of the 
Sahara. This increased the north-south pressure gradient over West 
Africa leading to record-strength, persistent northeasterly winds. The 
intensification of the northeasterly winds over the Sahara generated 
continuous dust emissions over several days in the second half of June 2020.
The researchers found that the subtropical high was embedded in a 
circumglobal wavetrain, a chain of wind patterns that extended around 
the planet, and was present in the Northern Hemisphere for most of June 
2020. This wavetrain may have been caused by record-low Arctic sea ice 
extent observed in June 2020 as well. The warming of the Arctic region 
is believed to be altering the course of wind patterns in the 
mid-latitudes and subtropics and causing severe weather events, though 
there is controversy among scientists about this concept.

"The development of the subtropical high off the African coast had a 
deterministic role in both dust emissions and rapid westward transport 
of the airborne dust across the tropical Atlantic," said Francis. "The 
clockwise circulation associated with the high, intensified the African 
Easterly Jet, a jet stream present over the Sahara around five 
kilometers (3.2 miles) in altitude, which rapidly transported the dust 
towards the Caribbean and southern United States."

The global travel of dust has myriad consequences, affecting everything 
from weather to aircraft travel to the fertility of soil on continents 
thousands of miles away from the source of the dust. The dust provides 
important nutrients such as iron and other minerals to ocean ecosystems 
as well. Dust is also thought to have an influence on tropical cyclone 
activity in the Atlantic Ocean through its effects on surface 
temperatures. Dust plumes are believed to cool the ocean surface by 
reflecting sunlight back to space, which in turn reduces the amount of 
energy available for a cyclone to form or intensify.

"While there is a large body of evidence suggesting that increased dust 
suspended over the Atlantic can reduce the numbers of tropical cyclones 
there, primarily through dust-induced cooling of ocean surface 
temperature, this year we observed the largest dust storm on record, as 
well as one of the most active hurricane seasons on record," said Evan. 
"Either 2020 is just a year where everything is upside-down, or we 
really need to reevaluate our understanding of how dust impacts that 
climate system."

Francis and Evan are planning to investigate in future work how the June 
2020 storm affected the solar energy received in the atmosphere and on 
the planet's surface, and assess its impact on the tropical storm season 
of 2020.

The study also touches on a controversial topic within the science 
community. Though not the main focus of study, the wavetrain pattern 
that set the Godzilla dust storm in motion looked very similar to one 
observed in 2010 when sea ice in the Arctic Ocean was substantially 
diminished, Francis' team noted.

"As the Arctic sea-ice cover was rather low in June 2020, around the 
lowest on record in the period of satellite observations, it may have 
contributed to the observed large-scale anomaly pattern," the study 
concludes. "Thus, if such patterns become more common in a warmer world, 
it is plausible that these extreme dust outbreaks will increase in 
frequency in the future."

The anomaly pattern the study refers to is one in which Arctic winds 
meander, rather than blowing in more or less a straight direction. 
Sometimes the wind patterns dip far south of the Arctic, leading to 
exceptionally cold events in the United States and Europe. The meander 
sets off a chain of events that can alter the course of other common 
wind patterns.

There is controversy, though, among researchers about the effect that a 
warming Arctic Ocean is having. Some argue that the sequence is 
reversed, that shifting wind patterns are what warms the Arctic rather 
than the other way around. Others believe that the patterns observed 
during years when sea ice is diminished are still within the range of 
natural variability, as opposed to change caused by global warming.

Francis will give a presentation on this study at the American 
Geophysical Union 2020 Fall Meeting on Dec. 7.

Co-authors of the study include Ricardo Fonseca, Narenda Nelli, and 
Michael Weston of Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Juan 
Cuesta of CNRS and Université Paris-Est Créteil Val de Marne in France, 
and Marouane Temimi of Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken, N.J.
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/arctic-warming-behind-monster-saharan-dust-storm


[audio thoughtful conversations]
*Deep Convection**
**A Podcast About Climate, Science, and Life*
Deep Convection is a podcast featuring real conversations between 
climate scientists (or sometimes those working in areas adjacent to 
climate science). The goal is to capture what it is like to work in our 
field at this moment in history. We talk about our lives, how we came to 
do what we do, what the work means to us, and how that is changing, or 
isn't - and sometimes about science. Our top priority is to capture good 
conversations, but if some learning happens that's fine too.
https://deep-convection.org/about/
https://deep-convection.org/episode-archive/



[December 7th- Pearl Harbor opinions]
*Clark: 'Have we waited too long?' Pearl Harbor, deniers and climate 
change | COMMENTARY*
By DAVID LANCE CLARK
CARROLL COUNTY TIMES
My father was a young high school teacher in Florida on Dec. 7, 1941. 
Following Pearl Harbor, he joined the Army and made it his career, 
including in Army intelligence assessing future security threats.

I once asked him what he thought, on the day of the Pearl Harbor attack, 
were our chances of winning the war. His answer was "not good." He was 
confident in 1941 that America could build a massive military force, and 
that our role as the arsenal of democracy could prove decisive. But the 
key question was, "Is there enough time left, or have we waited too long?"

For people of my generation and those younger, World War II looks like a 
familiar movie about a football team that storms back from a terrible 
first half to win the big game. The problem is that since we already 
know that the story has a good ending, we have become dangerously 
oblivious to the reality that we very nearly lost that war.

And there is an important lesson in that for us today as we face another 
profound threat to our world -- that of climate change.
President Franklin Roosevelt had been trying desperately to get 
recognition of the tremendous scale of the threats to America, and of 
the need to join directly into the war against Adolf Hitler even as he 
tried to buy time to build up our forces facing a possible war with Japan.

But isolationists kept hindering such actions, claiming that the threats 
of Hitler or the Japanese were not clear enough, and denying the 
seriousness of these threats to the United States. By the time Pearl 
Harbor forced us into war, overcoming the deniers, we were at a high 
risk of losing that war. And without some luck, we probably would have.

The most decisive piece of luck was Hitler's underestimation of the 
Russians. Hitler was sure his surprise attack in June 1941 would defeat 
Russia before the snows came and would allow Germany to turn its full 
might to the western front. He misread Russia's staying capacity.

Estimates are that well over 16 million Russians died, meaning more than 
40 Russian deaths for every American one. Over two-thirds of the German 
military deaths in World War II were on the eastern front. By the time 
of the bold invasion of Allied forces at Normandy, we were facing a 
weakened enemy that still had over half of its forces fighting the 
Russians. Indeed, if Russia had collapsed in 1941-42, the delayed U.S. 
entry into the war until after Pearl Harbor would probably have been too 
late to be decisive, with horrific consequences for our country and our 
world.

This lesson about the danger of waiting too late to fight back against a 
grave threat -- by denying its importance, or even its existence -- 
resonates strongly for us today.

Most Americans recognize the reality of climate change. However, they 
don't fully understand the truly catastrophic impacts it will have 
unless we make major changes now to curb greenhouse gases. The evidence 
is already piling up -- record fires in the west, record hurricanes in 
the south, record high yearly temperatures globally, including 100 
degrees recorded north of the Arctic Circle, and much, much more.

A key aspect is that the greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere 
today will be with us for many decades to come. If we wait for the 
catastrophes to be fully upon us, we will have waited too long to be 
able to reverse many of the worst changes, whatever we eventually do.

The incoming Biden administration has already committed to make fighting 
against climate change a top national priority. But if our actions are 
to be soon enough, and powerful enough, this fight needs to get taken 
out of the realm of partisan politics, and instead must be something 
that we all get behind.

Those who denied the threats from Nazi Germany and imperial Japan came 
very close to losing our country and world as we know it. We cannot 
afford to let denial of science and of the overwhelming evidence of 
climate change destroy our world in the 21st century. We are running out 
of time.

https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/carroll/opinion/cc-op-community-voices-120320-20201203-j6r3onz5cbc2ppxx5imlujdem4-story.html



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - December 7, 1999 *
The New York Times reports:

    "In a concession to environmentalists, the Ford Motor Company said
    today that it would pull out of the Global Climate Coalition, a
    group of big manufacturers and oil and mining companies that lobbies
    against restrictions on emissions of gases linked to global warming.

    "Ford's decision is the latest sign of divisions within heavy
    industry over how to respond to global warming. British Petroleum
    and Shell pulled out of the coalition two years ago following
    criticisms from environmental groups in Europe, where there has been
    more public concern than in the United States. Most scientists
    believe that emissions from automobiles, power plants and other
    man-made sources are warming the Earth's atmosphere.

    "British Petroleum and Shell were so-called general, or junior,
    members of the lobbying group. Ford is the first company belonging
    to the board that has withdrawn, and the first American company to
    leave the coalition, said Frank Maisano, a spokesman for the coalition."

http://www.nytimes.com/1999/12/07/business/ford-announces-its-withdrawal-from-global-climate-coalition.html

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