[TheClimate.Vote] December 24, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Dec 24 12:50:35 EST 2020
/*December 24, 2020*/
[now 4.8 mm per year]
*Sea-level rise from climate change could exceed the high-end
projections, scientists warn*
BY JEFF BERARDELLI
DECEMBER 23, 2020 - CBS NEWS
The new paper, titled "Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed
IPCC projections for strong-warming futures," takes issue with that
upper estimate, saying it is likely too low. The paper was published by
a who's who of the most well known glaciologists and sea-level rise
experts, including Martin Siegert, Richard Alley, Eric Rignot, John
Englander and Robert Corell...
- -
In the paper, they write: "Existing ice-sheet models are more likely to
provide reliable projections if global warming is kept below 2º Celsius
[3.6º Fahrenheit], but a world in which warming exceeds 4º Celsius [7.2º
Fahrenheit] presents a much more challenging situation. It is quite
possible that this extreme situation will lead to reactions and
feedbacks in the atmosphere-ocean-ice systems that cannot be adequately
modeled at present…"
- -
Another paper published in Nature this week makes a similar case,
focused on the evidence from Greenland. Employing the latest models used
to inform the next IPCC report, the authors found that in a high-warming
scenario Greenland may contribute an extra 3 inches to sea-level rise by
the end of the century, when compared to the former version of models
used by the IPCC. This extra sea-level rise is due to an additional 2
degrees Fahrenheit of warming projected by the new climate models in the
Arctic.
A big concern of Englander's for our future is the non-linear behavior
of sea-level rise. In recent years the pace of sea-level rise has been
accelerating. In the 1990s the oceans rose at about 2 millimeters per
year. From 2000 to 2015 the average was 3.2 millimeters per year. But
over the past few years the pace has quickened to 4.8 millimeters per
year...
- -
We must also remember that warming today, due to human-caused climate
change, is happening faster than it has in at least 2,000 years and
possibly over 100,000 years. So scientists just don't have a directly
comparable situation to measure against — once again highlighting our
uncertain future.
While scientists and scientific periodicals tend to be conservative in
their public projections of sea-level rise, scientists will often remark
that they are concerned it may be much worse. When CBS News asked
Englander what he thinks is a "realistic range" of sea-level rise by
2100, he said, "With the current global temperature level and rate of
temperature increase I believe that we could get 5 to 10 feet before the
end of this century."
While this is just one expert's opinion, if sea-level rise even comes
close to those levels, the impacts would be truly dangerous and
destabilizing, dramatically reshaping nations' coastlines and forcing
hundreds of millions of people to abandon their homes. Englander says to
reduce the potential impacts, it is better to be prepared for a
worst-case scenario.
"We need to begin planning and designing for that while there is time to
adapt."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-rising-sea-levels-worst-case-projections/
- -
[new calculations say 5 to 10 feet]
*Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed **IPCC projections for
strong-warming futures*
Correspondence: m.siegert at imperial.ac.uk
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.11.002
*SUMMARY*
While twentieth century sea-level rise was dominated by thermal
expansion of ocean water, mass loss from
glaciers and ice sheets is now a larger annual contributor. There is
uncertainty on how ice sheets will respond
to further warming, however, reducing confidence in twenty-first
century sea-level projections. In 2019, to
address the uncertainty, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) reported that sea-level rise
from the 1950s levels would likely be within 0.61–1.10 m if warming
exceeds 4C by 2100. The IPCC acknowledged
greater sea-level increases were possible through mechanisms not
fully incorporated in models used in
the assessment. In this perspective, we discuss challenges faced in
projecting sea-level change and discuss
why the IPCC’s sea-level range for 2100 under strong warming is
focused at the low end of possible outcomes.
We argue outcomes above this range are far more probable than below
it and discuss how decision makers
may benefit from reframing IPCC’s terminology to avoid
unintentionally masking worst-case scenarios.
https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2590-3322%2820%2930592-3
- -
[another source - Nature Communications]
*Greater Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to global sea level rise in CMIP6*
Nature Communications volume 11, Article number: 6289 (2020) Cite this
article
1975 Accesses
176 Altmetric
Metricsdetails
*Abstract*
Future climate projections show a marked increase in Greenland Ice
Sheet (GrIS) runoff during the 21st century, a direct consequence of
the Polar Amplification signal. Regional climate models (RCMs) are a
widely used tool to downscale ensembles of projections from global
climate models (GCMs) to assess the impact of global warming on GrIS
melt and sea level rise contribution. Initial results of the CMIP6
GCM model intercomparison project have revealed a greater 21st
century temperature rise than in CMIP5 models. However, so far very
little is known about the subsequent impacts on the future GrIS
surface melt and therefore sea level rise contribution. Here, we
show that the total GrIS sea level rise contribution from surface
mass loss in our high-resolution (15 km) regional climate
projections is 17.8 ± 7.8 cm in SSP585, 7.9 cm more than in our
RCP8.5 simulations using CMIP5 input. We identify a +1.3 °C greater
Arctic Amplification and associated cloud and sea ice feedbacks in
the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario as the main drivers. Additionally, an
assessment of the GrIS sea level contribution across all emission
scenarios highlights, that the GrIS mass loss in CMIP6 is equivalent
to a CMIP5 scenario with twice the global radiative forcing.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20011-8
[International law discussions - video 1:33.]
*Ecocide as an International Crime: Key Considerations*
Dec 18, 2020
Stop Ecocide International
Official side event of the 19th Session of the Assembly of States
Parties (ASP) to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court
(ICC), December 2020
At the 2019 ASP in The Hague, small island States Parties to the ICC
Vanuatu and Maldives addressed the need for ecocide to be seriously
considered by the ICC. Support has been expressed at state level by
France and Belgium, with parliamentarians in a growing number of
countries now discussing this legal route to sanctioning the worst
excesses of environmental damage. The event will cover key legal,
historical and political considerations as well as examining the broader
implications of this approach to protecting Earth's crucial life-support
systems.
Kindly hosted by the Republic of Vanuatu in association with the Stop
Ecocide Foundation and Institute for Environmental Security.
Co-host:
Dreli Solomon, First Secretary of the Vanuatan Embassy, Brussels
Special Guest:
Pekka Haavisto, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Finland
Speakers:
Professor Philippe Sands QC, Matrix Chambers / University College London
Kate Mackintosh, Executive Director, Promise Institute for Human Rights,
UCLA School of Law
Marie Toussaint, Member of the European Parliament (Greens/EFA)
Judge Tuiloma Neroni Slade, former ICC judge
Moderator:
Andrew Harding, BBC Africa correspondent
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT50At89zT8&feature=youtu.be
- -
https://coalitionfortheicc.org/general-debate-statements-asp19
[summary]
*Extreme Heat and Heat Waves*
https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/extreme-heat-and-heat-waves
[Classic document, important study from 2016 - how we know it's human
caused]
The National Academies of the Sciences Engineering Medicine
*Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change*
The extent to which climate change influences an individual weather or
climate event
is more difficult to determine. It involves consideration of a host of
possible natural
and anthropogenic factors (e.g., large-scale circulation, internal modes
of climate variability, anthropogenic climate change, aerosol effects)
that combine to produce the
specific conditions of an event. By definition, extreme events are rare,
meaning that
typically there are only a few examples of past events at any given
location.
Nonetheless, this relatively new area of science—often called event
attribution—is
rapidly advancing. The advances have come about for two main reasons:
one, the
understanding of the climate and weather mechanisms that produce extreme
events
is improving, and two, rapid progress is being made in the methods that
are used for
event attribution. This emerging area of science also has drawn the
interest of the
public because of the frequently devastating impacts of the events that
are studied. This is reflected in the strong media interest in the
connection between climate
change and extreme events, and it occurs in part because of the
potential value of
attribution for informing choices about assessing and managing risk and
in guiding
climate adaptation strategies. For example, in the wake of a devastating
event, communities may need to make a decision about whether to rebuild
or to relocate. Such
a decision could hinge on whether the occurrence of an event is expected
to become
more likely or severe in the future—and, if so, by how much.
- -
*Event attribution is more reliable when based on sound physical
principles, consistent evidence from observations, and numerical models
that can replicate the**
**event.*
- -
*Confidence in attribution findings of anthropogenic influence is
greatest for**
**those extreme events that are related to an aspect of temperature,
such as the**
**observed long-term warming of the regional or global climate, where
there is**
**little doubt that human activities have caused an observed change.*
https://www.nap.edu/download/21852
https://www.nap.edu/read/21852/chapter/2
[Some recent history of climate negotiations and Australia]
*Australien climate sh!tf at ckery | Richie Merzian*
Dec 21, 2020
thejuicemedia
Juice Media Podcast 18: In which we take a trip back in time with Richie
Merzian to discover the story of how Australia earned it's preciousss
Kyoto Carryover Credits, and in the process learn about international
climate politics and why our Government has pissed off the entire world
with all its bullshit. Essential history for all Aussies (and others too)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pTo5yquvjI
[Two video talks]
*Arctic Warming Today Versus Abrupt Warming in Past Dansgaard - Oeschger
Oscillations: Part 1 of 2**
**Abrupt Arctic Warming and Sea-Ice Loss Today and During
Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations: Part 2 of 2*
Dec 21, 2020
Paul Beckwith
During the last glacial period, from about 110,000 years ago to about
10,000 years ago, there were many so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O)
Oscillations. Oxygen isotope data extracted from Greenland ice cores
showed that in D-O events, atmospheric temperatures over Greenland
rapidly rose as much as 5 degrees C to 16.5 degrees C in a decade or
two, and then eventually cooled back down more slowly, over several
hundred to several thousand years. The question is what was happening to
Arctic sea ice coverage during those transitions? We can guess but is
there any data on this?
I chat about a recent peer-reviewed scientific paper that uses
biomarkers in Nordic Sea ocean floor sediment samples as a proxy for the
Arctic sea ice coverage. This study determines Arctic sea ice variations
during four D-O events between 41,000 years ago and 32,000 years ago.
During the extremely rapid warming periods there was very rapid sea ice
loss, then reinvigoration of deep ocean convection in the Nordic Seas,
followed by the abrupt warming in Greenland. Exactly what seems to be
happening today. Today, we are clearly having the rapid sea ice loss,
shifts in ocean circulation, loss of Arctic Ocean stratification,
Atlantification, and extremely high Arctic atmospheric temperature
anomalies. Like my climate protest poster from many years ago says
boldly, “all hell is breaking loose”. I would like to add “you ain’t
seen nothing yet”.
part 1 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nA0edgFkkB8
part 2 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyKzF9tLEls
[Wow, they could do it again this year]
*On this day in the history of global warming - December 24, 1988 *
December 24, 1988: TIME Magazine names "Endangered Earth" its "Planet
of the Year" for 1988, citing in part rising concerns over global warming.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/28176/TIME-MAGAZINE-PICKS-EARTH-IN-LIEU-OF-MAN-OF-THE-YEAR.html
http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19890102,00.html
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