[TheClimate.Vote] February8 , 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*February 8, 2020*/

[VICE reports]
*Good Morning. It's 65 Degrees in Antarctica.*
That's warmer than Orlando today.
You could be walking around Antarctica in a T-shirt.

A record-breaking temperature reading taken at an Argentinian research 
station on the continent Thursday clocked in at 18.3 degrees Celsius -- 
65 degrees Fahrenheit -- warmer than it is right now in Orlando, 
Florida, and the hottest temperature ever recorded in Antarctica.

The reading was from a station on Esperanza, the peninsula on the 
northern tip of Antarctica that's been recording temperature data since 
1961. As the planet heats, the poles are getting hotter way faster than 
the rest of the world. Hotter temperatures mean melting ice, which makes 
sea levels rise and threatens populations and economies around the world...
- - -
What happens at the poles, unfortunately, doesn't stay at the poles. The 
warming in Antarctica is melting glaciers and ice sheets at a record pace.

As ice sloughs off into the sea, it'll raise sea levels around the 
globe. The ice sheets on Antarctica are currently losing 127 gigatonnes 
of mass every year, according to NASA. Imagine dropping 20,000 Great 
Pyramids of Giza into the oceans -- that's about how much ice is falling 
off the continent annually. Scientists recently recorded temperatures 2 
degrees Celsius above freezing in the water at the base of one of the 
fastest-melting glaciers on the continent.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/4agaj3/good-morning-its-65-degrees-in-antarctica 




[Associated Press - great waters]
FEBRUARY 7, 2020
*High water wreaks havoc on Great Lakes, swamping communities*
- - -
On New Year's Eve, an unoccupied cottage near Muskegon, Michigan, 
plunged from an embankment to the water's edge. Another down the coast 
was dismantled a month earlier to prevent the same fate.

High water is wreaking havoc across the Great Lakes, which are bursting 
at the seams less than a decade after bottoming out. The sharp turnabout 
is fueled by the region's wettest period in more than a century that 
scientists say is likely connected to the warming climate. No relief is 
in sight, as forecasters expect the lakes to remain high well into 2020 
and perhaps longer...
- - -
But increasingly, the highs are higher and the lows lower--and the 
variations happen faster. Lakes Superior, Huron and Michigan had bigger 
jumps between 2013-14 than during any comparable period. It took just 
seven years to go from record slumps to all-time peaks.

Lakes Ontario and Erie last year reached their highest points since 
record keeping began in 1918. Superior surpassed several all-time 
monthly averages and did so again in January. Lakes Huron and Michigan 
did likewise last month, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 
in Detroit.

Even Ontario, where a hydropower dam provides more stability, has 
experienced record highs twice in the past three years.

"That's not supposed to happen," said Drew Gronewold, a University of 
Michigan hydrologist. "That lake is carefully regulated."

Climate change is believed to influence water temperatures and 
precipitation, which wage a constant tug-of-war with lake levels. Warmer 
water boosts evaporation, which pushed levels downward about 20 years 
ago. But as the atmosphere warms, it sucks up more moisture from other 
regions and dumps it into the lakes, filling them back up.

"Those two forces are increasing in intensity at the same time," 
suggesting the up-and-down shifts may become more extreme, Gronewold said...
- - -
High water is wreaking havoc across the Great Lakes, which are bursting 
at the seams less than a decade after bottoming out. The sharp turnabout 
is fueled by the region's wettest period in more than a century that 
scientists say is likely connected to the warming climate. No relief is 
in sight, as forecasters expect the lakes to remain high well into 2020 
and perhaps longer...
https://apnews.com/cdd234381027aa31138767bd3d935ef7/wsj/news/local/environment/high-water-wreaks-havoc-on-great-lakes-swamping-communities/article_0eb5767b-36f2-507d-8ade-1586a70e4cde.html



[Waking up syndrome]
*Climate Change Predictions Have Suddenly Gone Catastrophic. This Is Why*
The latest climate models have unexpectedly started to predict 
nightmarish warming scenarios. Now, scientists are scrambling to 
understand why, and if they can be trusted.
By Maddie Bender - Feb 6 2020
What would happen if the Earth's temperature went up a couple of 
degrees, or if carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions doubled? All signs point 
to terrible effects, from widespread heatwaves to negative impacts on 
biodiversity. Now, scientists' predictions have unexpectedly gotten even 
worse.

Some recent models have even predicted temperature increases in excess 
of 5 degrees celcius if CO2 emissions, which are setting records, 
double--an increase of just 3 degrees is expected to be devastating for 
humanity. In a study of these recent models, researchers found a 
surprising reason for the change: clouds.

Climate modelers rely on a centralized set of guidelines that enables 
comparison among their models. The models from this generation will be 
used to inform this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 
(IPCC) report and shape policy decisions to mitigate climate change. The 
world is already worryingly close to the temperature limits set in the 
Paris climate agreement, so the predictions of the latest climate models 
come as dire news.

"Most of the differences among models in climate sensitivity come from 
the clouds," said Paulo Ceppi, a co-author of the study. "And that's 
basically because it's really hard to simulate clouds accurately in 
climate models."

Ceppi and his co-authors compared models from the two most recent 
generations of guidelines based on climate sensitivity, a metric that 
describes the amount of surface warming a doubling in CO2 emissions 
would produce. Their study was published last month in the journal 
Geophysical Research Letters.

While the previous generation of climate models predicted on average a 
climate sensitivity of 3.3 Kelvin, the authors found that the most 
recent models average a climate sensitivity of 3.9 K. Additionally, the 
ranges of climate sensitivity produced by these models grew, from 
between 2.1 and 4.7 K to between 1.8 and 5.6 K.

Mark Zelinka, the first author of the study, said in an email that the 
only dramatic change between the two generations of models was how 
climate warming due to cloud cover had been incorporated. He explained 
that clouds reflect some sunlight that hits them, and as the planet 
warms from CO2 emissions, cloud cover will decrease. This in turn causes 
a positive feedback loop and further warms the climate.

Ceppi added that clouds also have their own greenhouse effects and can 
act as a blanket in the same way as greenhouse gases. The strength of 
this property depends on how high a cloud is, adding another layer of 
complexity that has only recently been incorporated into models.

Just because clouds are being modeled more realistically does not make 
the model as a whole better, though. In a preprint under review for the 
journal Earth System Dynamics, researchers at the University of Exeter 
looked at whether high estimates of climate sensitivity made sense in 
the context of historical observations.

First author Femke Nijsse said she was spurred to look into sensitivity 
because the last IPCC report considered a likely range to be lower than 
what several new models have predicted.

"We were quite surprised that this new generation of models showed quite 
a few models with a very high sensitivity," she said.

Nijsse and her team found that at least six current models were 
inconsistent with historical climate data, likely because of the new 
cloud modelling.

Ceppi agreed that some of the models predicting a higher sensitivity 
than before may be unrealistic; this presents a "bit of tension," since 
these new models were designed to better represent the climate processes 
that occur in clouds.

"On the one hand, they should be better, but on the other hand, at least 
some of these models seem to produce sensitivities that are too high 
compared with observed temperature changes," he said. "That's a bit of a 
puzzle there, that's something we need to resolve."

While there is some disagreement among the different climate models, 
Zelinka stressed that the next IPCC report, scheduled for release in 
2022, will take into account a number of measurements concerning climate 
sensitivity. Even so, differences of a Kelvin or two still lead to 
similar general conclusions, he said.

"In some ways we are splitting hairs when it is well known that CO2 
heats the Earth and that even a small amount of global warming is--on 
the whole--bad for society."
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/9393jd/climate-change-predictions-have-suddenly-gone-catastrophic-this-is-why


[We are in the age of fact check]
*Factcheck: How electric vehicles help to tackle climate change*
Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief
Due to an underlying study being recently amended, Carbon Brief's 
factcheck from May 2019 has now been updated. The analysis now shows 
that the per-kilometre lifetime emissions (manufacturing and driving) 
for a Nissan Leaf EV bought in the UK last year are about three times 
lower than for the average conventional car - even before accounting for 
the falling carbon intensity of electricity generation during the car's 
lifetime.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change


[AAAS Journal Science]*
**Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees 
across continents**
*Increasing temperatures and declines
One aspect of climate change is an increasing number of days with 
extreme heat. Soroye et al. analyzed a large dataset of bumble bee 
occurrences across North America and Europe and found that an increasing 
frequency of unusually hot days is increasing local extinction rates, 
reducing colonization and site occupancy, and decreasing species 
richness within a region, independent of land-use change or condition 
(see the Perspective by Bridle and van Rensburg). As average 
temperatures continue to rise, bumble bees may be faced with an 
untenable increase in frequency of extreme temperatures.
Science, this issue p. 685; see also p. 626
*Abstract*

    Climate change could increase species' extinction risk as
    temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species' historically
    observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species
    across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism
    altered likelihoods of bumble bee species' extinction or
    colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts
    species' local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area,
    and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing
    land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially
    explicit predictions of climate change-related population
    extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains
    observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across
    continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed
    historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee
    species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity
    loss more generally.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6478/685


[Good to know that a glossary exists]
*The Glossary of Meteorology*
This electronic version of the second edition of the Glossary of 
Meteorology is a living document and meant to be periodically updated as 
terms in our field evolve. To that end, AMS has established a Chief 
Editor for the Glossary who is responsible for updating/revising 
existing terms and adding new terms

For recommendations on correctly citing and referencing the Glossary of 
Meteorology, please see the Glossary entry for Citation.

If you are looking for the AMS e-book Glossary of Weather, Climate and 
Ocean, which is a textbook aimed at the K-12 level, it can be found in 
the AMS Education Bookstore. For further information on this textbook, 
please contact the AMS Education Program Director.
http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Main_Page


[Classic science from 2017 may need update]
*Less than 2 C warming by 2100 unlikely*
Adrian E. Raftery, Alec Zimmer, Dargan M. W. Frierson, Richard Startz & 
Peiran Liu
Nature Climate Change volume 7, pages637-641(2017)
Abstract
The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 
projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in 
four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use1. However, 
these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we 
use a country-specific version of Kaya's identity to develop a 
statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and 
temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960-2010, including the UN's 
probabilistic population projections for all countries2,3,4, we develop 
a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per 
capita and carbon intensity. We find that the 90% interval for 
cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC's two middle scenarios but 
not the extreme ones. The likely range of global temperature increase is 
2.0-4.9 C, with median 3.2 C and a 5% (1%) chance that it will be less 
than 2 C (1.5 C). Population growth is not a major contributing factor. 
Our model is not a 'business as usual' scenario, but rather is based on 
data which already show the effect of emission mitigation policies. 
Achieving the goal of less than 1.5 C warming will require carbon 
intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3352
See the paper 
https://www.votma.org/files/Exhibit_3_Raftery_et_al._(2017)_(1).pdf



[Six degrees described - fundamental climate science - conjecture 
briefing from 2018 - videos and text]
*What Will Happen As The World Gets Warmer?*
Following the agreements reached in Paris, Sky News looks at the 
consequences for life on Earth if the planet continues to warm.
Monday 8 October 2018
Almost 200 nations backed the final draft of a historic climate change 
agreement during United Nations talks in Paris in 2016. But what could 
happen if global temperatures continue to rise?

If the world temperature rises by two degrees, mountain glaciers and 
rivers will start to disappear and mountainous regions will see more 
landslides, as the permafrost that held them together melts away.
By 2100, sea levels could rise by a metre, displacing 10% of the world's 
population. Countries such as the Maldives will be submerged and the 
Indian subcontinent will be left fighting for survival. People will also 
die in greater numbers as they struggle with the increasing heat.

The ecosystem will collapse and a third of all life on earth will face 
extinction. Plant growth will slow, then stop. Plants don't absorb 
carbon dioxide very well so begin to emit it - making global warming worse.

The world's food centres will become barren and, within 85 years, one 
third of the planet will be without fresh water.
If the world's temperature rises by two to three degrees, up to 40% of 
the Amazon rainforest will be destroyed and warmer soil will kill 
vegetation and release more carbon.
Hurricanes will be stronger and cities in Asia, Australia and the 
south-east of the US will face destruction. Holland will be torn apart 
by the North Sea.
Saltwater will creep upstream, poisoning the groundwater and ruining the 
food supply.

If the world's temperature rises by three to four degrees, millions of 
people will begin to flee coastal areas, cities will begin to vanish and 
some will become islands.
The ice at both poles will vanish and this could see a rise in sea 
levels of as much as 50m, although this may take hundreds or thousands 
of years.

China, a major producer of the world's rice, wheat and maize, could see 
its agriculture fail - it will need to feed more than a billion people 
on two-thirds of its current harvest.

Summers will be longer and soaring temperatures will see forests turn to 
firewood, with even Britain's south reaching 45C. The increased demand 
on air-conditioning puts massive pressure on the country's power grid.

If the world's temperature increases by six degrees, rainforests will be 
deserts and massive numbers of migrants will flock to the few parts of 
the world they see as inhabitable, resulting in racial conflict and 
civil war.
Many will choose places such as Canada and Siberia but even those 
climates may be too hot to grow food.

Stagnant oceans mean more hydrogen sulphide, which kills the sea-life 
and, if the sea heats up enough, massive stores of methane hydrate under 
the sea will begin to escape.

Methane is flammable and the smallest spark or lightning strike could 
see fireballs tearing across the sky. Explosions greater than a nuclear 
bomb could destroy life on earth entirely.

Sulphur dioxide in the atmosphere will continue to cripple the ozone 
layer, leaving all remaining life exposed to extreme levels of UV radiation.

So what can we do to stop this?

Plant a tree, recycle, use energy-saving light bulbs and turn off the 
water while you brush your teeth. More drastic measures include giving 
up meat - or even giving up beef would make a big difference - and 
giving up your car.
https://news.sky.com/story/what-will-happen-as-the-world-gets-warmer-10336299



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming  - February 8, 2011 *

Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) releases a January 31, 2008 letter from 
then-EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson to President George W. Bush, 
urging Bush to finally take action on carbon pollution.
http://m.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2011/02/bush-epa-recognized-global-warming-threat


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