[TheClimate.Vote] July 5, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*July 5, 2020*/

[Opinion upset]
*Stop making sense: why it's time to get emotional about climate change*
Rebecca Huntley
4 Jul 2020
The science has been settled to the highest degree, so now the key to 
progress is understanding our psychological reactions...
- -
Over the 15 years I've been a social researcher, I've watched with 
concern the increasing effects of climate change, and also watched as 
significant chunks of the electorate voted for political parties with 
terrible climate change policies.
There is clearly a disconnect between what people say they are worried 
about and want action on and who, when given the chance, they pick to 
lead their country.
The science behind climate change has been proven correct to the highest 
degree of certainty the scientific method allows. But climate change is 
more than just the science. It's a social phenomenon. And the social 
dimensions of climate change can make the science look simple - the laws 
of physics are orderly and neat but people are messy...
- -
So when it comes to talking to people about climate change, it helps 
enormously to think about it not just as a scientific question but as a 
social and political one. But understanding how people's already 
existing (and often entrenched) political allegiances influence their 
response to climate change is only part of the picture. Understanding 
their emotional reactions is even more important, and that leads us from 
politics towards psychology.

Viewing the climate change issue through a psychological lens yields 
endless important insights into why we are where we are. Have a look at 
the must-watch 2018 Ted Talk by the meteorologist J Marshall Shepherd, 
on three kinds of bias that shape your worldview. As a self-proclaimed 
weather geek, he often gets asked if he believes in climate change. He 
finds the question odd because science isn't about belief. It's about 
proof that things are real or not. He is agog at the chasm between what 
scientists know to be true and what surveys have shown the US public 
believes about issues like vaccinations, evolution and, of course, 
climate change.

This has led the natural scientist to start thinking about psychology, 
namely what biases shape our perceptions of the world around us. He 
picks three big ones. The first, and probably the most obvious, is 
confirmation bias, namely that we zero in on evidence that supports what 
we already believe. Confirmation bias is even more pronounced in a world 
where we can use our social media to filter out information we don't 
want to absorb and where we follow influencers who reinforce our 
existing beliefs.
The second bias is called Dunning-Kruger, which describes our human 
tendency to think we know more than we do as well as to underestimate 
what we don't know. Again, I see this happen in focus groups all the 
time, when participants with no scientific credentials or training pick 
apart the science of climate change.

The third and final bias is cognitive dissonance. When people encounter 
actions or ideas they cannot reconcile psychologically with their own 
beliefs, they experience discomfort. They then try to resolve their 
discomfort by arguing away the new evidence.

Given that climate change is such a discomforting topic, I see this 
cognitive dissonance all the time in focus groups, where people try to 
find reasons other than climate change for the events happening around 
them, even when faced with a strong scientific explanation. They pick it 
apart because of Dunning-Kruger and then, because of confirmation bias, 
try to find a blog that states something other than what the scientific 
evidence shows...
J Marshall Shepherd argues that we need to close the gap between public 
perception and scientific fact, to create a better future and preserve 
life as we know it. He challenges us to take an inventory of our biases 
and of the beliefs we use to prop them up. Think about where you get 
your information, how reliable it is and whether you only read the 
things that agree with what you want to think rather than the actual 
truth. Then share what you've learned - about yourself and about the 
world - with other people.

I'm not saying facts don't matter or the scientific method should be 
watered down or we should communicate without facts. What I am saying is 
that now the climate science has been proven to be true to the highest 
degree possible, we have to stop being reasonable and start being emotional.

More science isn't the solution. People are the solution.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/05/stop-making-sense-why-its-time-to-get-emotional-about-climate-change



[More science anyway - Beckwith video starts 7 mins in]
*High Risk of Simultaneous Crop Failures in North America, Europe, and 
Asia From Stuck Jet Streams*
Jul 3, 2020
Paul Beckwith
With Abrupt Climate System Change, we are hit with worsening, severe, 
increasingly grave consequences. When the Jet Stream Rossby Waves get 
stuck in persistent quasi-resonant locking patterns with wavenumbers 5 
and 7 (i.e. 5 and 7 wavelengths: a ridge H and a trough L is one 
wavelength cycle) circumventing the planet then crucial agricultural 
regions in North America, Europe, and Asia have lower yields. This jet 
stream resonance with Earth (from topography and land-ocean temperature 
contrasts) causes simultaneous crop failures spiking food prices causing 
geopolitical conflict and mayhem.
https://youtu.be/-dZecBLntF8


[Nature Climate Change ]
*A typology of compound weather and climate events*

    Abstract
    Compound weather and climate events describe combinations of
    multiple climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal
    or environmental risk. Although many climate-related disasters are
    caused by compound events, the understanding, analysis,
    quantification and prediction of such events is still in its
    infancy. In this Review, we propose a typology of compound events
    and suggest analytical and modelling approaches to aid in their
    investigation. We organize the highly diverse compound event types
    according to four themes: preconditioned, where a weather-driven or
    climate-driven precondition aggravates the impacts of a hazard;
    multivariate, where multiple drivers and/or hazards lead to an
    impact; temporally compounding, where a succession of hazards leads
    to an impact; and spatially compounding, where hazards in multiple
    connected locations cause an aggregated impact. Through structuring
    compound events and their respective analysis tools, the typology
    offers an opportunity for deeper insight into their mechanisms and
    impacts, benefiting the development of effective adaptation
    strategies. However, the complex nature of compound events results
    in some cases inevitably fitting into more than one class,
    necessitating soft boundaries within the typology. Future work must
    homogenize the available analytical approaches into a robust toolset
    for compound-event analysis under present and future climate conditions.

*Key points*
- Compound events -- a combination of multiple drivers and/or hazards 
that contribute to societal or environmental risk -- are responsible for 
many of the most severe weather-related and climate-related impacts.

- A classification of compound events is proposed, distinguishing events 
that are preconditioned, multivariate, temporally compounding and 
spatially compounding.

- The typology aids compound-event analysis by facilitating the 
selection of appropriate analysis and modelling tools.

- Through altering the distribution of climate variables and their 
spatial and temporal dependencies, climate change affects the 
likelihood, nature and impacts of compound events.

- Bottom-up approaches, which link sectoral impacts to physical hazards, 
can help understand and, ultimately, better prepare for emerging risks 
posed by compound events.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s1558-020-0832-y#Sec5

[more]
*Future climate risk from compound events*
J Zscheischler, S Westra, BJJM Van Den Hurk… - Nature Climate …, 2018 - 
nature.com
Floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts often result from a 
combination of interacting
physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The 
combination of
processes (climate drivers and hazards) leading to a significant impact 
is referred to as a
'compound event'. Traditional risk assessment methods typically only 
consider one driver
and/or hazard at a time, potentially leading to underestimation of risk, 
as the processes that
cause extreme events often interact and are spatially and/or temporally 
dependent. Here we …
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0156-3


[catholic trend]
*Pope: cooperatives for clean energy against climate change*
In a tweet to mark the International Day of Cooperatives, Saturday, Pope 
Francis notes that cooperatives across the globe are making a real 
difference in the fight against climate change.
By Robin Gomes
For the past 97 years, the International Day of Cooperatives has been 
celebrated each year on the first Saturday of July.  Since 1995, the 
United Nations and the International Cooperative Alliance have chosen 
the theme of the annual day. The focus for this year is on climate 
action for sustainable development for a healthier, fairer and more 
united economy.

In a tweet for Saturday's observance, Pope Francis also focused on the 
role of cooperatives in the fight against climate change.  "In some 
places, cooperatives are being developed to exploit renewable sources of 
energy which ensure local self-sufficiency," the Pope wrote on his 
Twitter account @Pontifex.  "They can make a real difference in the 
fight against climate change, thanks to a strong sense of community and 
a deep love for the land," he added.

*Cooperatives - people-centred development*
The aim of the annual celebration is to increase awareness about 
cooperatives. Being people-centred, not capital-centred, cooperatives 
distribute wealth in a fairer way.  As farms, businesses, or other 
organizations which are owned and run jointly by members who share the 
profits or benefits, cooperatives are committed to the sustainable 
development of their communities, environmentally, socially as well as 
economically.  They support community activities, local sourcing of 
supplies to benefit the local economy, and decision-making that 
considers the impact on their communities.

*Healthy, social and integral progress*
Pope Francis' tweet is an echo from his landmark encyclical "Laudato 
Si'", which addresses issues of justice, peace and development with 
regard to the use of the goods of creation.  He says that technology can 
be used for a type of progress which is "healthier, more human, more 
social, more integral", such as when "cooperatives of small producers 
adopt less polluting means of production, and opt for a non-consumerist 
model of life, recreation and community".

Addressing representatives of the Confederation of Italian Cooperatives 
on 16 March 2020, the Pope observed that the way of the cooperatives is 
to "take the lid off" of an economy that risks producing goods but at 
the cost of social injustice.
*
**UN: Challenges of Covid-19 and climate change*
In a message for the June 4 International Day of Cooperatives, UN 
Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, focused on the role of cooperatives 
in addressing the challenges caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and climate 
change and in forging a path towards an inclusive and equitable future 
for all.

He noted that the dual crises of the pandemic and the climate emergency 
"are disproportionately affecting the world's most vulnerable countries 
and people, and deepening many social and economic rifts".  The crises 
are also highlighting the need to strengthen global cooperation and 
solidarity.

This year's observance, he said, underscores the contribution of 
cooperatives in addressing these challenges, achieving the Sustainable 
Development Goals and forging a path towards an inclusive and equitable 
future.

"Cooperatives and other social and solidarity economy enterprises," 
Guterres noted, "can also point the way toward resilience in times of 
crisis".
https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2020-07/pope-francis-cooperatives-day-climate-renewable-energy-justice.html

- -

[source material]
*ENCYCLICAL LETTER LAUDATO SI' OF THE HOLY FATHER FRANCIS**
**ON CARE FOR OUR COMMON HOME*
http://www.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/documents/papa-francesco_20150524_enciclica-laudato-si.html


[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - July 5, 2012 *

Economist Yoram Bauman and law professor Shi-Ling Hsu point out the 
benefits of a federal carbon tax in a New York Times article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/opinion/a-carbon-tax-sensible-for-all.html

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