[TheClimate.Vote] July 10, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*July 10, 2020*/

[CBS weather report]
*Relentless heat wave to bake the U.S. for "multiple weeks"*
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/heat-wave-across-united-states-multiple-weeks/


[So sayeth TIME magazine]
*2020 Is Our Last, Best Chance to Save the Planet*
In the future, we may look back at 2020 as the year we decided to keep 
driving off the climate cliff–or to take the last exit...
- -
However, we do have a choice of how bad it will get. If we invest in 
preserving nature and transitioning our energy system today, we will 
stave off the worst, giving us the ability to manage the hurricanes and 
floods as they come. If we wait, we'll be stuck flat-footed when the 
worst arrives, watching in dismay as the temperature curve ticks up and up.

The choice is ours. We just don't have much time to decide.
https://time.com/5864692/climate-change-defining-moment/



[fundamentals]
*Climate change: 'Rising chance' of exceeding 1.5C global target*
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent
9 July 2020

The World Meteorological Organisation says there's a growing chance that 
global temperatures will break the 1.5C threshold over the next five 
years, compared to pre-industrial levels.

It says there's a 20% possibility the critical mark will be broken in 
any one year before 2024.

But the assessment says there's a 70% chance it will be broken in one or 
more months in those five years.

Scientists say that keeping below 1.5C will avoid the worst climate impacts.

The target was agreed by world leaders in the 2015 Paris climate accord 
accord.

They committed to pursue efforts to try to keep the world from warming 
by more than 1.5C this century...
- -
If the 1.5C threshold is broken in one of the coming years, the experts 
stress it won't mean the targets are invalid.

However it will, once again, underline the urgency of significant 
emissions cuts to prevent a long-term move to this more dangerous, 
warmer world.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806



[Political wrangling]
*Big Oil's Fallback Plan Is Falling Flat*
But the industry's political lobbying during the pandemic has been a 
smashing success.

By Alexander C. Kaufman
The oil and gas industry is in crisis. Crude prices plunged into 
negative territory at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, and oil 
giants in recent months cut dividends to shareholders and wrote down the 
value of their assets by tens of billions of dollars. Utilities this 
week abandoned a major gas pipeline as wind and solar smashed records. 
As of last month, 17 countries had set targets to phase out internal 
combustion engine vehicles.

Yet petrochemicals -- the sector producing everything from plastics to 
polyester fabrics to paint -- looked like a safe bet. Exxon Mobil Corp. 
is spending $20 billion on chemical and refining plants across the Gulf 
Coast. Royal Dutch Shell PLC is constructing a massive complex in 
Pennsylvania to churn ethane, a component in fracked natural gas, into 
polyethylene plastic. China's state-owned Sinopec Corp. last month 
opened its third petrochemical facility in 18 months.

There is, however, a "hole in the hedge," as The Economist magazine 
declared in a print headline last month. The price of plastic resins 
dropped amid the pandemic, and cheap oil is undercutting the United 
States' natural gas-based petrochemical buildout. Regulations are 
mounting as new research shows plastic pollution is so severe and 
ubiquitous that tiny particles are appearing in remote locales.

"Petrochemicals and plastic will not be how the oil and gas industry 
grows its way out of this crisis or climbs its way out of debt," a 
report published Thursday by the nonprofit Center for International 
Environmental Law concluded. "The plastic market is saturated, and a 
short-term uptick in demand for personal protective equipment will not 
change the long-term downward trajectory of plastic use."
Plastic isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Between 1971 and 2015, demand 
for plastic outpaced that for other bulk materials such as cement, 
aluminum and steel, according to International Energy Agency data. And 
demand keeps growing. By 2050, nearly half of all growth in oil demand 
is estimated to come from plastics.

But as oil and gas giants scale back drilling and lose billions on 
existing investments, the profit margins on plastics and other 
petrochemicals are slimming down. Prices for plastic resins -- the raw 
pellets made from ethylene or other feedstocks -- plunged in March, and 
few if any have recovered, according to a report by Plastics Technology, 
an industry trade group.

Refiners in Asia and Europe invested in making resins from naphtha, a 
flammable liquid mix distilled from oil, peat or coal. In the U.S., 
where the fracking boom made natural gas cheap and plentiful, the 
industry instead built a fleet of "cracker" plants, sprawling complexes 
of pipes and furnaces that heat ethane -- a component in natural gas -- 
into ethylene and polyethylene. The IEA estimated that 40% of the 
world's ethane-based production capacity is in the U.S.
But the historic drop in oil prices "essentially eliminated the huge, 
years-long competitive cost advantage that North American [natural 
gas-based polyethylene] producers have enjoyed over their international 
naphtha-based counterparts," Plastics Today, a trade publication, 
reported on June 30.
Regulations, meanwhile, are proliferating quickly as global outrage 
grows over the extent of plastic pollution. The presence of granular 
microplastics in the oceans, Great Lakes and even Arctic snow is well 
known. But researchers found tiny bits of airborne plastic in 98% of 
dust samples collected in 11 national parks and wilderness areas, 
according to a study published last month in the journal Science.

By last year, 127 countries started regulating plastic bags. Eight U.S. 
states banned plastic bags as of the start of this year. In 2019, the 
European Parliament voted to ban many single-use plastic items by 2021 
and require member states to collect 90% of plastic bottles by 2029. In 
January, China, the largest producer of single-use plastics, started 
phasing out most nonbiodegradable bags, straws and cutlery over the next 
two years.

COVID-19 may reverse the trend. As officials struggled to contain the 
virus, the industry and its allies began pressing to halt or reverse 
bans across the world. While the European Union denied the request, the 
United Kingdom postponed its ban on some plastics until later this year. 
In the U.S., states such as New Hampshire banned reusable bags, fearing 
they could spread the virus, in favor of single-use paper or plastic bags.

The lobbying successes extend beyond plastics. Between March and July, 
64% of the oil and gas industry's global efforts to increase financial 
support for fossil fuel production or roll back climate regulations were 
either "completely" or "mostly successful," according to a study 
published Thursday by InfluenceMap, a British think tank that tracks 
corporate influence on policy. Another 26% of lobbying efforts were ongoing.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/oil-plastics_n_5f060aa1c5b67a80bc01dd3e



[PR Influence Map]
*Fossil Fuel Lobbyists Are Dominating Climate Policy Battles During 
COVID-19*
An InfluenceMap Briefing
July 2020
*Executive Summary*
New research from InfluenceMap shows the oil and gas sector to have 
dominated climate related policy battles stemming from COVID-19 crisis. 
Interventions from the industry seeking
deregulation and support for fossil fuels in recovery packages have 
drowned out pro-climate
interventions from the non-fossil corporate sector. They have also been 
over twice as likely
to succeed based on detailed assessment of quick wins obtained thus far. 
Given the
compressed time scales at which this is unfolding, a new tracking 
platform RecoveryMap is
being launched to allow real time access to this data and analysis.
The research has tracked 121 instances of corporate and industry 
association lobbying
interventions globally that are relevant both to the COVID-19 crisis and 
the climate
emergency from March 1st to July 1st. The vast majority of these are 
associated with fossil
fuel value chain companies including automotive and aviation, as well as 
oil, gas and coal
production. InfluenceMap's analysis of the lobbying of key sectors can 
be found in the
Appendix of this document, along with important examples.
The smaller number of positive corporate interventions largely consist 
of top-line, public
statements that companies have signed urging policymakers to implement a 
"green"
recovery. The research also tracked instances of more tactical positive 
lobbying by industry
groups representing the renewable energy sector. Neither these top-line 
statements of
support nor lobbying by renewable groups is likely to be able to match 
the more intensive
lobbying by powerful groups representing the fossil fuel value chain 
sectors.
The research scores the outcomes of these lobbying interventions where 
decisions have been
made thus far. It assesses them as 'successful', 'mostly successful', 
'mostly unsuccessful', or
'unsuccessful' in shaping the COVID-19 recovery as it relates to climate 
and energy policy.
Where decisions are pending, or the results are unclear, the lobbying is 
scored as "ongoing".
This applies to only 30% of the 121 lobbying data points, highlighting 
the compressed
timescales of policy decisions since March 2020

The oil and gas sector has been both the most active and the most 
successful in its lobbying
interventions to date, with 64% of lobbying engagements either 
completely or mostly
successful, and a further 26% ongoing. The aviation sector has been 
similarly effective, with
63% of its lobbying engagements being either completely or mostly 
successful.
Less successful sectors are automotive, with 59% of its engagements 
resolved unsuccessfully
or mostly unsuccessfully, and coal, with 47% of its engagements resolved 
unsuccessfully or
mostly unsuccessfully. This relative failure may represent waning trust 
on the part of
policymakers, especially in Europe, in the climate intentions of 
companies in these sectors. It
is noted that this analysis does not include state-owned industry, which 
might counterbalance
this trend, particularly for coal.
Pro-climate, cross-sector interventions have seen limited success so 
far, with only 28% of
those assessed being at least partially successful. In contrast to the 
in-depth policy advocacy
from the fossil fuel lobbyists, pro-climate business coalitions have 
generally limited their
interventions to top-line statements and letter-signings which alone are 
unlikely to be as
effective as tactical lobbying by well-organized industry groups. 
However, 72% of these
positive interventions were assessed on policy that is still 'ongoing', 
indicating there is
opportunity for pro-climate companies willing to ramp up strategic 
engagement on this issue.
The analysis indicates the presence of global trends, with the oil and 
gas sector most
dominant in the US, Canada and Australia. The coal sector has been 
mostly unsuccessful in
convincing policymakers in the US and the EU that it merits specific 
financial support,
although emerging evidence shows that coal companies have been a major 
benefactor of the
US government's Paycheck Protection Program. Coal has seen more success 
in other nations
where coal forms a key part of the energy mix, for example in Indonesia. 
Lobbyists
representing the automotive sector have also encountered the least 
success in Europe in
pushing a negative climate agenda that is increasingly at odds with the 
EU's climate
commitments. Despite this, a relentless campaign from European natural 
gas lobby has made
inroads on EU climate ambition, looking to insert gas as a necessary 
part of the EU's "green"
recovery.
The success of the fossil fuel value chain, particularly the oil and gas 
sector, can be attributed
to its powerful ecosystem of lobbying actors globally. These groups come 
prepared to target
detailed policy decisions as they unfold and bring to the table 
entrenched narratives linking
jobs and economic growth with the fossil fuel value chain in key 
economies. The success of
this is also due to the universal lack of transparency around corporate 
lobbying in general
which has enabled lobbyists to push for policies with clear negative 
societal and
environmental implications without being held to account.
https://influencemap.org/site/data/000/542/InfluenceMap_COVIDClimateLobby_report_July2020_FINAL.pdf
- - -
[Important]
*Why the Fossil Fuel Lobbyists are Winning*
Through this analysis and from its ongoing corporate climate lobbying 
platform, InfluenceMap has
unpicked the tactical playbook of the fossil fuel value chain lobbyists 
amid the COVID-19 crisis pushing
for both favorable financial interventions and regulatory rollbacks.
InfluenceMap's analysis shows significant success from fossil fuel value 
chain lobbyists in both these
short-term tactics and long-term goals, although the short-term success 
is strikingly evident.
InfluenceMap's analysis points to several factors driving this success.
*Pre-existing and Powerful Climate Lobbying Capacity:* Fossil fuel value 
chain companies,
particularly those within the oil and gas sector, have coordinated 
networks of lobbyists
globally who are actively engaged on climate policy, such as the 
powerful American
Petroleum Institute (API) which scored early wins on regulatory roll 
backs in the US. These
networks were quickly mobilized at the start of the COVID-19 crisis to 
take advantage of fastmoving policy decisions when high levels of public 
confusion provided cover for quick wins on
climate deregulation and financial support. In general, the lobbying 
machines of pro-climate
sectors such as renewables do not possess such capacity or resources to 
match those of the
fossil fuel value chains. Pro-climate, cross-sector business coalitions 
generally took much
longer to organize a response to the COVID-19 crisis, with many 
pro-climate companies likely
focusing on more immediate issues for their business.
*Tactics Focused on Lobbying as well as Top-Line Messaging:* In contrast 
to the varied tactics
and in-depth policy advocacy from the fossil fuel lobbyists, pro-climate 
business coalitions
have thus far generally limited their interventions to high-level, 
public policy statements
which alone are unlikely to be as effective in swaying the all-important 
binding details of
policy changes.
*Green Recovery Framing: *While the emerging concept of a "green 
recovery" has begun to
gain traction in some countries, this is not yet challenging deeply 
entrenched narratives that
tie economic growth and jobs to the fossil fuel value chain, 
particularly in economies such as
the US and Russia with large fossil fuel industries.
*Lack of Transparency:* The process of corporate lobbying is universally 
opaque, a feature
which enables companies and their lobbyists to push for policies with 
clear negative societal
and environmental implications without being held to account. The added 
stress on
governmental policymaking processes caused by urgent timescales and 
social distancing
measures have compounded this problem and enabled opportunistic 
lobbyists to push for
highly controversial policy positions.
https://influencemap.org/site/data/000/542/InfluenceMap_COVIDClimateLobby_report_July2020_FINAL.pdf


[measurements]
*CO2 in Earth's atmosphere nearing levels of 15m years ago*
Last time CO2 was at similar level temperatures were 3C to 4C hotter and 
sea levels were 20 metres higher

The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is approaching a 
level not seen in 15m years and perhaps never previously experienced by 
a hominoid, according to the authors of a study.

At pre-lockdown rates of increase, within five years atmospheric CO2 
will pass 427 parts per million, which was the probable peak of the 
mid-Pliocene warming period 3.3m years ago, when temperatures were 3C to 
4C hotter and sea levels were 20 metres higher than today.

But it seems we must now go much further back to see what's ahead.

Some time around 2025, the Earth is likely to have CO2 conditions not 
experienced since the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum 15m years ago, 
around the time our ancestors are thought to have diverged from 
orangutans and become recognisably hominoid...
For the paper published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports, a team 
of researchers from the University of Southampton constructed a new 
high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 during the Pliocene using data 
derived from the boron levels in tiny fossils about the size of a pin 
head collected from deep ocean sediments of the Caribbean Sea.

This confirmed trends previously observed in ice cores, but also allowed 
a more precise estimate of the CO2 range in that geological epoch, when 
levels of solar radiation were the same as today.

"A striking result we've found is that the warmest part of the Pliocene 
had between 380 and 420 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere," one of 
the co-authors Thomas Chalk, said. "This is similar to today's value of 
around 415 parts per million, showing that we are already at levels that 
in the past were associated with temperature and sea-level significantly 
higher than today."

"Currently, our CO2 levels are rising at about 2.5 ppm per year, meaning 
that by 2025 we will have exceeded anything seen in the last 3.3 million 
years."

The authors said the study of the past provided a guide to what is 
likely to happen in the future as the Earth responds to the buildup of 
greenhouse gas from the past two centuries of industrial emissions.

"Ice sheets today haven't had a chance to catch up with CO2 forcing. We 
are burning through the Pliocene and heading towards a Miocene-like 
future," said another of the authors, Gavin Foster, a professor of 
isotope geochemistry at the University of Southampton. "We now have to 
go further back in time to find situations that are relevant."

During the Middle Miocene, ice sheets shrank further and sea levels were 
much higher than the Pliocene. Foster said this was long before anything 
recognisably human had evolved on Earth.

The steady increase in temperatures in the current era were highlighted 
on Thursday by a new international collaboration coordinated by the 
World Meteorological Organization and led by the UK's Met Office. In the 
first of what will be an annually annually-updated five-year climate 
prediction, the scientists noted that there is a 20% chance of the world 
temporarily reaching 1.5C above pre-industrial levels before 2025.

"This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the enormous 
challenge ahead in meeting the Paris agreement on climate change target 
of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2C above 
pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature 
increase even further to 1.5C," said the WMO secretary-general, Petteri 
Taalas.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/09/co2-in-earths-atmosphere-nearing-levels-of-15m-years-ago
- -
[source material]
*Atmospheric CO2 during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period and the M2 
glaciation*
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67154-8


[NYTimes]
*Japan's Deadly Combination: Climate Change and an Aging Society*
Record-breaking rains this week in the country's southernmost main 
island, which have killed 62, have shown the vulnerability of people 
living in nursing homes...
- -
In recent years, climate change has spurred more torrential rains in 
Japan, causing deadly flooding and mudslides in a nation with many 
rivers and mountains. The people most vulnerable to the risks of this 
extreme weather are the elderly, of which Japan has the highest 
proportion in the world...
- -
"Under the emerging impact of global warming, there is an increasing 
risk or potential that rainfall amounts could be at a level that we 
haven't experienced in the past," Professor Nakamura said. "So I think 
that citizens must realize that their previous experience may no longer 
work. We have to act even earlier or faster than what we have 
experienced in the past."...
- -"Despite having highly trained staff, world-class equipment and 
well-established emergency response plans," he added, "when things go 
sideways, this lack of coordination between state, prefectural and local 
authorities inordinately delays the response, leaving vulnerable 
citizens unnecessarily exposed to harm."

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe initially dispatched about 10,000 Self-Defense 
Forces troops to Kyushu over the weekend. Earlier this week, he doubled 
the number to 20,000, along with 60,000 police officers, firefighters 
and Coast Guard rescue workers...
- -
"When we have victims from disasters, multiple unlucky factors are 
involved," he said. "This time that was the case, too. The best solution 
is to relocate to a safer area."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/world/asia/japan-climate-change-rains-elderly.html



[it is never too late to change, the sooner we start the more powerful 
our actions]
*Another Month Gone, Another Month Entering the Global Warming Record Books*
With Siberia burning under unprecedented heat, our planet experienced a 
virtual tie for warmest June on record.
https://www.discovermagazine.com/environment/another-month-gone-another-month-entering-the-global-warming-record-books



[More heat -- more bugs]
*Microbiome may mediate link between climate change and new diseases*
Scientists have proposed a new model of animal diseases that includes 
the role of the microbiome. Their research suggests that climate change 
may lead to the emergence of new infectious diseases...
- -
The researchers' key message is that human activities are changing the 
environment in profound ways that will impact wildlife and people. 
Protecting the health of both requires a broad research approach that 
takes account of a range of influences, including the microbiome.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/microbiome-may-mediate-link-between-climate-change-and-new-diseases



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - July 10, 2007 *

On MSNBC's "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," Air America host Rachel 
Maddow points out the mainstream media's fetish for false balance, 
specifically citing climate coverage.

http://youtu.be/vcMFwuu_UlA


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