[TheClimate.Vote] July 12, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*July 12, 2020*/

[Scientific American]
*Worrisome Signs Emerge for 1.5-Degree-C Climate Target*
There is a 24 percent chance that global average temperature could 
surpass that mark in the next five years...
- -
According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization and 
the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office, there's about a 24% chance 
the world's average temperatures will rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above 
their preindustrial levels during at least one of the years between 2020 
and 2024...
- -
A stark report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 
2018 suggested it's still technically possible to achieve the 1.5 C goal 
-- but global carbon emissions must drop to zero by the year 2050, with 
significant reductions already made by 2030.

It's a timeline that would require an unprecedented overhaul of global 
energy, transportation and land use systems. At the moment, 
international commitments under the Paris climate agreement are nowhere 
near enough to get it done in time.

"While it's not impossible, we certainly don't see the political will 
evident today for those sorts of reductions," Hausfather said. "I'm 
personally not very confident that we're going to be able to limit 
global warming to 1.5 degrees. That makes it all the more important to 
make sure we take enough action to limit it to below 2 degrees."
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/worrisome-signs-emerge-for-1-5-degree-c-climate-target/



[audio podcast Hot Take]
*You're Worried about the Wrong Climate + Cancel Culture Done Right + 
Refugees on a Warming Ocean + More *
We hope you've all had a chance to listen to our Season 2 premiere 
episode in which we sat down with Kendra Pierre-Louis to discuss the 
tectonic shifts that are taking place in the media industry and what 
that could mean for climate coverage.
‎Hot Take with Mary Annaise Heglar and Amy Westervelt
An intersectional look at the climate crisis and the climate conversation.
https://podlink.to/realhottake



[video conjectures justifying radical action]
*Pivoting to the Endgame | Roger Hallam | Extinction Rebellion*
Jul 11, 2020
Extinction Rebellion
Recorded in London, July 2020.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEdXgB9urN0


[social stress]
Climate & conflict
*Roadmap for Studying Link between Climate and Armed Conflict*
Published 9 July 2020
Climate change--from rising temperatures and more severe heavy rain, to 
drought--is increasing risks for economies, human security, and conflict 
globally. Scientists are offering ways better to assess the 
climate-conflict link to help societies manage the complex risks of 
increased violence from a changing climate.

Climate change--from rising temperatures and more severe heavy rain, to 
drought--is increasing risks for economies, human security, and conflict 
globally. Scientists at the University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School 
of Marine and Atmospheric Science are leading an effort to better assess 
the climate-conflict link to help societies manage the complex risks of 
increased violence from a changing climate

The links between climate and the risk of violent conflict are well 
studied; however, scientists in varying research disciplines often 
disagree about the scope and severity of possible climate change 
impacts. Some of the open research questions are about the links between 
climate change and violence, including large-scale armed conflict.

In a new report in Earth's Future, a group of scholars, with backgrounds 
including environmental and political science, geography, and economics, 
analyze the relationship between climate and organized armed conflict to 
define crosscutting priorities for future directions of research. In a 
previous assessment published in 2019 by the group, it was estimated 
that over the last century between 3-20 percent of organized armed 
conflict risk has been influenced by climate.

In this new assessment, the scholars suggest that future directions for 
climate-conflict research include deepening insight on what the links 
are, when they matter, and how they manifest. They suggest that future 
research can use data from diverse sources, including satellite and 
drone imagery, social media, and population surveys.

"Our changing climate poses threats for human security," said Katharine 
Mach, an associate professor at the UM Rosenstiel School and lead author 
of the assessment. "In this commentary perspective, we provide a roadmap 
for future research that is supportive of appropriate societal 
responses. The options include deepening our understanding of how 
climate shapes security and conflict risks, as well as the ways in which 
research can prioritize ethical, interactive, and ongoing engagement 
with the many organizations and governments promoting peace and 
stability in societies."

Changes in Earth's climate are already impacting societies and economies 
and will further increase the risks of a range of outcomes, including 
civil conflict, which is profoundly and enduringly destructive for 
societies. Comprehensive and transdisciplinary efforts are needed to 
fully understand the multifaceted links between climate and conflict and 
appropriate responses by governments and humanitarian assistance 
organizations.

"This research topic is controversial and contested," said Caroline 
Kraan, a PhD student in the Abess Graduate Program in Environmental 
Science and Policy. "We came together to provide a full range of expert 
views to establish a way forward for research that can serve 
decision-making needs."

According to the authors, priorities for future directions of research 
include (1) deepening insight into climate-conflict linkages and 
conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously integrating 
research designs, (3) systematically exploring future risks and response 
options, responsive to ongoing decision-making, and (4) evaluating the 
effectiveness of interventions to manage climate-conflict links.
http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20200709-roadmap-for-studying-link-between-climate-and-armed-conflict



[readiness]
*Texas Needs To Prepare For A 'Megadrought,' State Climatologist Warns*
MOSE BUCHELE - JUL 10, 2020
Texas is no stranger to droughts. From the bone-dry stretch of the 
1950s, the state's longest drought, to the fiery months of 2011, the 
state's single driest year, droughts have shaped Texas' culture and economy.

But, according to the state climatologist of Texas, we ain't seen 
nothing yet.

John Nielsen-Gammon, who is also a professor of atmospheric sciences at 
Texas A&M University, is the lead author of a new paper that forecasts 
the arrival of more extreme droughts through this century. These could 
include decades-long "megadroughts," which have not afflicted the state 
for a thousand years.

  "There's some question about whether we should actually refer to 
what's coming as a drought," says Nielsen-Gammon, whose paper was 
published last month in the journal Earth's Future. "Because a drought 
is something that happens temporarily and goes away. And we're talking 
about something that is effectively going to be permanent - at least in 
terms of human lifespan."

The bottom line, according to climate models, is that an increasing 
aridness will grip the state. Soil will dry up and not be able to 
support the same amount of agriculture and plant and animal life. 
Nielsen-Gammon says it will make the climate of East Texas more like 
that of West Texas, and the climate of West Texas more like that of New 
Mexico.

There will be less water in the reservoirs, and without new ways of 
storing water, Texas will no longer be able to support human activity. 
So, he says, state water planners should be preparing for it now.

Water Planning In Texas
Texas manages its water resources based on what the paper calls a 
"rear-view mirror approach."

The state water plan, updated every five years, aims to prepare Texas 
for a drought like the seven-year-long "drought of record" that took 
place in the '50s. What it does not do is consider how climate change 
could further drain water supplies.

"For example," the paper says, "the state plan reports only a 3% 
decrease in surface water availability from 2020 to 2070," while climate 
change could bring a much steeper drop.

Climate change "means our margin of safety of our water supplies becomes 
smaller and smaller unless we adapt our planning to keep up with it," 
Nielsen-Gammon says.

That means groups that use and distribute water in the state, like 
agricultural interests and local and regional water authorities, should 
use tools for forecasting the impacts of climate change on their water 
supply.

Nielsen-Gammon says climate models are improving when it comes to 
predicting what climate change means for specific locations over 
specific periods of time.

"It won't generally be at the level of a particular aquifer impact or a 
particular stream, but you can at least tell basically which way the 
winds are blowing," he says.

Planning Takes Money And Will
The paper points to the City of Austin as an example of how one local 
government can prepare for a drier future.

After the drought of 2011, Austin decided to create a plan to ensure it 
had enough water for the next 100 years. It incorporated the increasing 
likelihood of drought driven by climate change into the process.

The result is the city's "Water Forward: Integrated Water Resource 
Plan." It recommends everything from increased water conservation to the 
creation of an underground aquifer water-storage system to tackle 
climate change.

But, planning with that level of detail and sophistication takes two 
things that can be hard to find in Texas: money and a willingness to 
accept the reality of climate change.

Nielsen-Gammon says groups without the economic resources of a city like 
Austin should still prepare "based on the more general projections of 
somewhat drier conditions and perhaps allow for some additional safety 
margin taking account what climate change might produce for them."

When it comes to the acceptance of climate science, he says he thinks 
it's starting to happen in Texas. The main reason for that is not a 
drought, but a flood: the one caused by Hurricane Harvey.

"We simply can't ignore those sorts of out-of-the-box natural 
disasters," he says. "Effectively, certain types of natural disasters 
are becoming more and more likely because of climate change."
https://www.kut.org/post/texas-needs-prepare-megadrought-state-climatologist-warns



[Media analysis about global warming]
MeCCO is *Media and Climate Change Observatory*
MeCCO monitors 117 sources (across newspapers, radio and TV) in 53 
countries in seven different regions around the world. MeCCO assembles 
the data by accessing archives through the Lexis Nexis, Proquest and 
Factiva databases via the University of Colorado libraries.
Current issue - Issue 42, June 2020

*"Our racial inequality crisis is intertwined with our climate crisis. 
If we don't work on both, we will succeed at neither"*
https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/issue42.html

    June 2020 brings us to a crossroads. Media coverage of climate
    change or global warming has dropped dramatically from the start of
    the year, and remains low. In June, media attention to climate
    change and global warming at the global level stayed at the same
    levels as May 2020 coverage. However, compared to June 2019 news
    articles and segments about climate change and global warming in
    June 2020 decreased 46%. Regionally, the ongoing stream of stories
    in in June increased in Asia (up 37%), the Middle East (up 17%),
    Europe (up 9%) and Africa (up 7%). In contrast, coverage went down
    in North America (down 15.5%), Oceania (down 13%) and Latin America
    (down 6%) from May 2020.

https://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/icecaps/research/media_coverage/summaries/ 




[Beckwith video]
*Number of Lightning Flashes per Square Kilometer of Land Surface Area 
to Increase 12% per degree C*
Jul 11, 2020
Paul Beckwith
The Clausius-Clapeyron equation says there is 7% more water vapour in 
the atmosphere for every 1 degree C of warming.  Water vapour rises by 
convection of hot air masses; cools, condenses and releases latent heat 
energy fueling more powerful storms. Science studies find that the 
number of lightning flashes per unit of ground area (flashes per square 
km) scales with multiplication of the CAPE (Convective Available 
Potential Energy) with the rainfall amount. Thus, the frequency of 
lightning flashes increases by 12% per degree C of warming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vh5Eym3Tog8



[News long ago ignored]
*On this day in the history of global warming - July 12, 2013 *

USA Today reports:

"U.S. energy supplies will likely face more severe disruptions because 
of climate change and extreme weather, which have already caused 
blackouts and lowered production at power plants, a government report 
warned Thursday.

"What's driving these vulnerabilities? Rising temperatures, up 1.5 
degrees Fahrenheit in the last century, and the resulting sea level 
rise, which are accompanied by drought, heat waves, storms and 
wildfires, according to the U.S. Department of Energy."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/07/11/climate-change-energy-disruptions/2508789/

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