[TheClimate.Vote] July 19, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*Sunday July 19, 2020*/

[turnabout]
*A Plunge in Mass Transit Ridership Deals a Huge Blow to Climate Change 
Mitigation*
Transit agencies ask Congress for relief as commuters return to their 
cars and fare revenues tank. Meanwhile, driving direction requests--and 
carbon emissions--soar.
- -
For years, environmentalists and other mass transit advocates have 
pointed to public transportation as a way to reduce pollution and help 
curb climate change. But as cities across the country come out of 
lockdown, and people begin moving around again, commuters by the 
thousands appear to be choosing driving over public transportation.

One recently updated study found that traffic, and carbon emissions, 
quickly rebounded across the world in early June as lockdowns began 
lifting. And in the United States, phone and other device data suggest 
that while all of the nation's traffic plunged during the height of the 
pandemic in April and May, only public transit use remains below 
pre-pandemic levels as states reopen...
- -
If that trend continues, it means even more traffic congestion--and 
carbon emissions--than before the pandemic, said Elizabeth Irvin, a 
senior analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

As the largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S., the 
transportation sector is responsible for nearly a third of the nation's 
total emissions, according to the Environmental Protection Agency...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/16072020/climate-change-new-york-city-metro-subway-coronavirus-mass-transit



[Online August 6th]
*American Climate Leadership Summit 2020 will now be a 100% virtual live 
event!* Join us each Thursday during the month of August for a series of 
live webcasts featuring thought-and-action-provoking topics and speakers 
in an engaging and interactive online experience. You'll hear from our 
great speakers (plus a few new ones) focusing on the prescient climate 
topics updated to reflect our modern times. Each 3-hour webcast will 
include engaging conversation, Q+A with you the participants, and a few 
additional ways for you to engage, all the while we individually and 
collectively avoid air travel and reduce our carbon footprint.

If there was ever a time to make a difference on climate change, that 
time is now. Join us to connect on climate, with speakers and each 
other, and to move climate action in America forward during these 
unprecedented times.
We are making progress and have had some good success in the climate 
fight recently, but we are still nowhere near where we need to be to be 
comfortable about our future.  The upcoming months, with the elections 
and the 117th congress will be pivotal.  Help us all broaden and 
activate greater public support and political resolve at the 9th annual 
American Climate Leadership Summit 2020.

The topics couldn't be more relevant, and we've assembled some fantastic 
climate leaders - Christiana Figueres, Katharine Hayhoe, Senator Sheldon 
Whitehouse, Seth Goldman, Naomi Oreskes, Senator Brian Schatz, Bill 
McKibben, Chris Anderson (TED) and many others will be joining live.

ACLS 2020 Speakers, Agenda and Registration available at this link

Our usual two day in-person event will now be a series of three-hour 
webcasts each Thursday afternoon in August starting at at 2 pm ET/11 am 
PT.  We will expand and diversify participation, making ACLS2020 
accessible with a pay-what-you-can model.

Attendance at ACLS 2020 will now be on a pay-what-you-can basis. 
However, ecoAmerica would greatly appreciate your financial support to 
offset the costs of shifting to and hosting a virtual event.
https://web.cvent.com/event/5b81798a-40e8-4872-adfc-e14958de2914/summary



[news analysis]
*The Trump administration cooks the climate change numbers once again*
BY RICHARD RICHELS, HENRY D. JACOBY, GARY YOHE AND BEN SANTER, OPINION 
CONTRIBUTORS -- 07/18/20
In its campaign against action on greenhouse gas emissions, one of the 
more subtle moves by the Trump administration is its manipulation of the 
Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). This number is used to represent the damage 
resulting from emitting an additional ton of carbon. Climate economists 
sometimes refer to it as the most important number you've never heard 
of. Undermine the SCC and you can discredit action to fight climate 
change, boost support for the fossil fuel industry, tip the scales away 
from renewable energy and counter other important policy initiatives. 
Fortunately, in a detailed report on the estimation of the SCC, the 
congressional watchdog General Accounting Office has called out this 
latest affront to reliable assessment of the science and risks of 
climate change.

The SCC is a key input to the benefit-cost analyses required of all 
federal regulatory actions, and thus is an important factor in their 
justification. The federal SCC estimate has also been adopted by several 
states. Examples of the SCC's use are abundant, including the setting of 
reasonable federal standards for the performance of private automobiles 
and appliances.

Estimating the SCC requires joint consideration of natural and social 
science aspects of the climate change problem. A federal working group 
spent nearly a decade on this process. Recognizing that the underlying 
methodology needed rigorous and impartial review, the interagency group 
commissioned a comprehensive update by the U.S. National Academy of 
Sciences (NAS). The 2017 NAS report supported the previous approach to 
valuing the SCC, recommending a program of research and analysis to 
improve the estimate.
The Trump administration did not follow this recommendation. Instead, it 
imposed measures to hobble reliable estimation of the SCC. The earlier 
working group was disbanded, associated documents were withdrawn and the 
NAS study was ignored. Instead, changes were made to limit the SCC's 
scope and the weight it gave to future generations. These changes cannot 
be justified by either the science or the standards deemed acceptable 
for benefit-cost studies.

As a result of the administration's changes, the previous central value 
for the SCC - roughly $50 per ton of CO2 - was reduced by nearly 90 
percent.

These changes are misguided and pernicious. They limit damages to those 
occurring within U.S. borders, and thus reflect a tragic 
misunderstanding about climate change and the U.S. national interest. 
CO2 emissions, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, impact every 
person on the planet, regardless of the geographical location of the 
source. To limit current and future climate change damages, it is in the 
U.S. national interest not only to reduce its own emissions, but also to 
encourage other countries to do the same. The administration's near-zero 
SCC does just the opposite, offering other countries a pretense for 
adopting positions that mimic those of the world's second-largest emitter.

There are many other causes for concern. The impacts of our emissions 
will be felt most cruelly by the most vulnerable Americans, and by those 
countries least able to cope with the ensuing damages. Ignoring the 
needs of these individuals and countries threatens to exacerbate 
societal inequities at home and to create millions of environmental 
refugees abroad. Humanitarian crises that would burden rich and poor 
nations alike are the obvious consequences. Preventing these crises is 
both the right thing to do and in our own self-interest.

Another critical aspect of the SCC calculation is the value placed on 
future generations. Intergenerational equity is a contentious topic. 
There are reasonable debates among social scientists about what 
constitutes fairness in the treatment of unborn generations. Despite 
these disagreements, there is convergence among scholars as to what 
represents a plausible range of discount factors. The administration, 
ignoring the prudent advice of the NAS authors and other knowledgeable 
experts, provides no analysis of its own. It simply mandates a set of 
discount rates at the higher end of the spectrum, to the disadvantage of 
future generations.
In its assessment of the administration's SCC procedure, the GAO uses 
careful diplomatic language. It writes that, ". . . the federal 
government may not be well positioned to ensure agencies' future 
regulatory analyses are using the best available science." Our 
interpretation is more direct: Ignoring the science to cook the numbers 
discredits the federal process for public decision-making.

The GAO recommends that a federal agency should be made responsible for 
addressing the NAS report, and for ensuring that the best-available 
science is used in calculating the SCC. Sadly, there is little 
expectation that this recommendation will be heeded by an administration 
that denies the reality and seriousness of the climate threat.

Richard Richels directed climate change research at the Electric Power 
Research Institute (EPRI). He served on the National Assessment 
Synthesis Team for the first U.S. National Climate Assessment.

Trump turns White House into backdrop for political events
Support swells for renaming Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma to honor...
Henry D. Jacoby is the William F. Pounds Professor of Management, 
Emeritus in the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management and former co-director 
of the M.I.T. Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

Gary Yohe is the Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and 
Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in Connecticut. 
He served as convening lead author for multiple chapters and the 
Synthesis Report for the IPCC from 1990 through 2014 and was vice-chair 
of the Third US National Climate Assessment.

Ben Santer is a climate scientist and member of the U.S. National 
Academy of Sciences. He served as convening lead author of the climate 
change detection and attribution chapter of the IPCC's Second Assessment 
Report and has contributed to all five IPCC assessments. ...
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/507929-the-trump-administration-cooks-the-climate-change-numbers-once



[38 million evacuated as rains keep coming]
*China Slammed by Floods*
Jul 18, 2020
China Uncensored
Heavy rainfall has lead to sever flooding in most of China. And worst of 
all, some fear the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River is in danger of 
collapsing. Millions are at risk many have been displaced by floods and 
natural disasters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Ygz6wL1M2s



[Brazil]
*Dramatic footage fuels fears Amazon fires could be worse than last year*
As dry season starts campaigners sound alarm over 'shocking' scale of 
fires, as Bolsonaro doubles down on denials

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/17/dramatic-footage-fuels-fears-amazon-fires-could-be-worse-than-last-year



[video summary of Dr James Hansen's collected work]
*Updating the Climate Science: Truth and Consequences: 1 of 3*
Jul 17, 2020
Paul Beckwith
James Hansen is one of my climate heroes. He tried to tell the world 
about the grave threat of climate change by testifying to the US 
Congress in 1988 but nobody wanted to listen. Ten years ago he wrote the 
totally awesome book "Storms of my Grandchildren". He and his team 
diligently update numerous graphs on global energy, global temperature, 
solar activity, greenhouse gas levels and rates of change, ENSO cycles, 
global precipitation and drought, wind, hurricanes, tornadoes, 
wildfires, sea level, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet loss, 
butterflies, forcings, aerosols, and paleoclimate. Have I missed anything:)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVv9jkgGQEE
- - -
[2 of 3]
*Updating the Climate Science: Truth and Consequences: 2 of 3*
Jul 17, 2020
Paul Beckwith
I continue chatting on James Hansen climate graph updates and key 
findings. Global emissions continue rising, exceeding 10 PgC/yr (Gt/yr), 
with the airborne fraction from 45 to 64%. Atmospheric CO2 growth is 
about 2.5 ppm/yr (5-year mean) spiking over 3 ppm/yr some years. Global 
surface temperature relative to 1880-1920 mean is 1.3C (add 0.3 for 1750 
baseline). Land surface temperature rise is about double that of sea 
surface temperature rise. Northern Hemisphere warming anomaly is 
greatest in autumn, then winter, then spring and least in summer. 
Siberia is gonzo. Solar irradiance is at a minimum in sunspot cycle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2e3EjKdEmw
- - - -
[3 of 3]
*Updating the Climate Science: Truth and Consequences: 3 of 3*
Jul 17, 2020
Paul Beckwith
Global temperature in 2020 is exceeding the record set in powerful El 
Niño event 2015-2016, in spite of it not being another El Niño year. 
Global precipitation mayhem results in torrential rains with huge floods 
in some regions and extreme droughts in other regions (both bad for 
crops). Number of powerful Category 3 to 5 Atlantic hurricanes is 
trending upwards, as is number of top end tornadoes. Wildfire average is 
increasing, correlated with temperature anomalies. Sea level rise is 
accelerating, with Greenland and Antarctica ice mass loss rates doubling 
every 10 years. Arctic sea ice is getting crushed like a bug.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGXAKpE48Vg

- - - -

[source material links from Dr Hansen site]
*Critical Climate Diagnostics and Feedbacks*
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/



[from the Republic of Turkey]
*De-growth only solution to tackle climate change: Expert**
*Restraining population growth, consumption per capita is way to tackle 
climate change, climate scientist tells Anadolu Agency
Burak Bir - 18.07.2020
ANKARA
The problem of climate change cannot be solved without tackling earth's 
growing human population, which gives rise to greater consumption and 
carbon emissions, according to a climate scientist.

Known as the greatest threat to the planet, the climate crisis is 
exacerbated by growing pressure from the human population, while it 
continues to increasingly affect the planet's inhabitants.

In an interview with Anadolu Agency, Levent Kurnaz, a professor at the 
Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies at Istanbul's Bogazici 
University, described the link between climate change and the humans as 
"two cycles" instead of one "vicious circle."

The main reason behind climate change is greenhouse gas emission, 
especially CO2, he said, noting that a rising number of people will 
eventually have an effect on themselves, as more people bring more 
consumption, and there will be more emission...
- -
The only solution to tackle climate change is de-growth, not only 
economically but also de-growth of the population, he stressed.

As a theory that criticizes economic growth, de-growth is based on 
various frameworks, including political ecology, ecological economics, 
and environmental justice.

Reiterating the cycles of the growing population and climate change, he 
said: "Both cycles need to be broken ... even if we leave aside all our 
consumption habits, and keep what we eat at a minimum, if the human 
population rises to 20 billion, this problem will continue."

"On one hand, we need to restrain population growth around the world, 
and on the other, we need to restrain consumption per capita," he said.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/environment/de-growth-only-solution-to-tackle-climate-change-expert/1914618


[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - July 19, 2001 *Proving 
that the wish is the father to the thought, White House adviser Karen 
Hughes tells CNN, "The whole issue of global climate change is something 
our administration is serious about."
http://web.archive.org/web/20140427081627/http://edition.cnn.com/2001/US/07/19/hughes.access.cnna/

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