[TheClimate.Vote] June 5, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Jun 5 09:33:56 EDT 2020
/*June 5, 2020*/
[unstoppable rise]
*Atmospheric CO2 levels rise sharply despite Covid-19 lockdowns*
Scientists find coronavirus crisis has had little impact on overall
concentration trend
Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have risen strongly to a new
peak this year, despite the impact of the global effects of the
coronavirus crisis.
The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 417.2 parts per
million in May, 2.4ppm higher than the peak of 414.8ppm in 2019,
according to readings from the Mauna Loa observatory in the US.
Without worldwide lockdowns intended to slow the spread of Covid-19, the
rise might have reached 2.8ppm, according to Ralph Keeling, a professor
at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. He said it was likely they
had played a small role, but that the difference was too small to show
up against other factors causing year-to-year fluctuations...
- - -
Environmental campaigners said the continued rise in emissions showed
how urgently a green recovery from Covid-19 crisis was needed.
John Sauven, the executive director of Greenpeace UK, called on the
British government to do more as hosts of the next UN climate talks,
Cop26, now postponed until 2021. "Just a few months of lower emissions
were never likely to make a dent in the hundreds of billions tonnes of
carbon that have built up over a century and a half of burning fossil
fuels," he said.
"That's why the drop in emissions caused by the pandemic will remain
just a blip unless governments get serious about building a cleaner,
healthier and safer world."
Muna Suleiman, a campaigner at Friends of the Earth, said: " It's clear
that climate breakdown isn't a distant idea, it's here right now, and we
have to treat it like the emergency it is."
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/04/atmospheric-co2-levels-rise-sharply-despite-covid-19-lockdowns
[New book wellness]
*Distressed by recent turmoil? New book offers coping tips based on your
'reactor type.'*
By Lise Van Susteren and Stacey Colino
In these turbulent times, many people feel like they're struggling to
stabilize their moods from a kind of ongoing emotional whiplash. They
may feel uncharacteristically anxious or agitated, worried or withdrawn,
sad or despondent, hyper-reactive to or outraged about continuously
disturbing events. In our new book, we call this emotional inflammation.
It's a state that shares some of the same symptoms as post-traumatic
stress disorder (with disturbing or intrusive thoughts, hypervigilance,
grief, sleep problems), but that stems from simply living in today's
tumultuous world...
- -
To restore your emotional equilibrium: Slow down and prioritize your
actions, based on how or where you can be particularly effective.
Exercising your critical thinking skills -- such as questioning the
veracity of the information you're hearing before deciding whether to
act on it -- will also help you avoid spinning your wheels. Schedule
downtime: Take a walk in nature to absorb the sounds, scents and sights
and other soothing effects. Immerse yourself in a hobby, listen to or
make music; read books that capture your imagination. Research has found
that greater participation in enjoyable leisure activities is associated
with lower blood pressure, more positive moods, a greater sense of calm
and a buffering effect against the negative psychological impact of
stress...
- - -
*Tips for all types of reactors*
Every reactor type can benefit emotionally from taking steps to help
others. Research has found that volunteering enhances your emotional
well-being and your sense of engagement and competence. It also puts us
on the road to moving from being a bystander, someone who simply watches
harm or injustices happen, to becoming an upstander, someone who, after
recognizing that something is wrong, speaks up or stands up to work to
make it right. Taking empowering action to change things moves us from
feeling vulnerable and victimized to feeling strong, capable and
resilient -- a potent antidote to emotional inflammation.
Also, remember that when you have an emotional reaction to something,
the stress hormone cortisol is released by the brain and puts the body
on high alert. But this surge lasts for only 90 seconds, according to
neuroscientist Jill Bolte Taylor. After that, any lingering emotional
response stems from your choosing, consciously or not, to stay in that
emotional loop. So keep an eye on the clock! Let the emotion surge
through you for 90 seconds then consciously release it from your mind
and refocus your attention. Your emotions will naturally dissipate.
When you take these steps to restore your emotional equilibrium, you'll
be able to better cope with the challenges of our tumultuous world. And
you'll reclaim a greater sense of calm, purpose and connection to others.
Lise Van Susteren is a psychiatrist in Washington, D.C. Stacey Colino is
a writer in Chevy Chase, Md., specializing in health and psychology.
They are the co-authors of "Emotional Inflammation: Discover Your
Triggers and Reclaim Your Equilibrium During Anxious Times" (Sounds
True, April 2020).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/distressed-by-recent-turmoil-new-book-offers-coping-tips-based-on-your-reactor-type/2020/06/02/5e095f70-a44c-11ea-b619-3f9133bbb482_story.html
[We know]
*Racism, Police Violence, and the Climate Are Not Separate Issues*
By Bill McKibben
June 4, 2020
"Having a racist and violent police force in your neighborhood is a lot
like having a pollution-emitting factory in your neighborhood."
https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/racism-police-violence-and-the-climate-are-not-separate-issues
[Beckwith talks on ice science]
*Our Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean: Part 1 of 3*
Jun 4, 2020
Paul Beckwith
When will Arctic sea-ice vanish? In this 1st of 3 videos of findings
from a review paper, I delve into details. Importantly, sea ice coverage
loss (area and extent) have a deterministic component arising primarily
from future greenhouse gas emissions. There is roughly 3 square meters
of September ice loss per ton of CO2 emissions; or a loss of 4 million
square km per degree C rise in global temperature; or a cumulative
emission amount of 800 Gt (20 years). There is also an internal
variability (chaotic) component of 1 million square km (or 300 Gt or 7.5
years). Thus, no summer sea ice within 12.5 to 27.5 years. I expect
sooner myself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPqslr0G0MA
- -
*Our Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean: Part 2 of 3*
Jun 4, 2020
In this 2nd of 3 videos, I delve into the question of when Arctic summer
sea ice will vanish. In the past few decades summer area has dropped in
half; thickness also by half; this volume (area x thickness) is down to
only a quarter left. When will that last quarter vanish? Analysis to
answer must consider both strengths and weakness of satellite
observation and the latest most complex computer simulation modelling.
External forcing changes (greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric CO2
concentration, global temperature); internal variability changes
(chaotic); and feedbacks must all be utilized and weighed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNlJAQViYS0
- -
*Our Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean: Part 3 of 3*
Jun 4, 2020
In this 3rd of 3 videos, I analyze when summer Arctic sea ice will
vanish. Interestingly, rather than analyze sea ice coverage curves over
time, here one uses sensitivity of ice coverage to Global Mean Surface
Temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions. Ever wonder why ice coverage
is lasting so long given the staggering record low in 2012? Summer
feedbacks are mostly accelerating, but there are 3 braking winter
feedbacks. Winter ice forms faster over open water with no ice; thin ice
thickens much faster than thick ice; and delayed ice onset in fall means
less snow covers the ice; all 3 factors preserve Arctic sea-ice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8pg260DENs
[Revkin's Zoom meeting]
*No Talking Heads! Unbroken Circle Song and Story Swap*
Streamed live on May 24, 2020
Andrew Revkin
DESCRIPTION: Every Sunday, musicians, poets, artists and others from
around the world connect from a distance via the Unbroken Circle segment
of the Earth Institute's Sustain What webcast. Join us!
If you want to contribute a tune or reading, contact Andy Revkin:
Andrew.revkin at columbia.edu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVI1rROsbFQ
Gui Becker's song at 1.17- Cataclysmic Chaos
https://youtu.be/lVI1rROsbFQ?t=4667
[does activism work - yes, somewhat]
*Study Says "Extreme" Protest Isn't Popular (But It Can Still Be Effective)*
video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRjPzsZ0cWQ
transcript -
https://skepchick.org/2020/06/study-says-extreme-protest-isnt-popular-but-it-can-still-be-effective/
- -
[recent research]
*The activist's dilemma: Extreme protest actions reduce popular support
for social movements.*
Citation
Feinberg, M., Willer, R., & Kovacheff, C. (2020). The activist's
dilemma: Extreme protest actions reduce popular support for social
movements. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Advance online
publication. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000230
Abstract
How do protest actions impact public support for social movements? Here
we test the claim that extreme protest actions--protest behaviors
perceived to be harmful to others, highly disruptive, or both--typically
reduce support for social movements. Across 6 experiments, including 3
that were preregistered, participants indicated less support for social
movements that used more extreme protest actions. This result obtained
across a variety of movements (e.g., animal rights, anti-Trump,
anti-abortion) and extreme protest actions (e.g., blocking highways,
vandalizing property). Further, in 5 of 6 studies, negative reactions to
extreme protest actions also led participants to support the movement's
central cause less, and these effects were largely independent of
individuals' prior ideology or views on the issue. In all studies we
found effects were driven by diminished social identification with the
movement. In Studies 4-6, serial mediation analyses detailed a more
in-depth model: observers viewed extreme protest actions to be immoral,
reducing observers' emotional connection to the movement and, in turn,
reducing identification with and support for the movement. Taken
together with prior research showing that extreme protest actions can be
effective for applying pressure to institutions and raising awareness of
movements, these findings suggest an activist's dilemma, in which the
same protest actions that may offer certain benefits are also likely to
undermine popular support for social movements. (PsycINFO Database
Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved)
https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2020-02398-001
[MAP]
*Pan-arctic Circumpolar Off-grid Settlements (2016)*
https://nnsl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/0704EnergySecuritiy__.jpg?_gl=1*1klg9g2*_ga*YW1wLTlrdG0zMHpyaTFTMVBxZnFLTnNDbUE.
[Climate Lab Book posted a new item]
*Sensitivity of historical climate simulations to uncertain aerosol forcing*
May 28, 2020
Earth's climate has warmed by approximately 0.85 degrees over the period
from 1880 to 2012 [IPCC, 2013] due to anthropogenic emissions of
greenhouse gases. However, the rate of warming throughout the twentieth
and early twenty-first centuries has not been uniform, with periods of
accelerated warming and cooling.
Guest post by Andrea Dittus
A key player in determining the historical evolution of global
temperatures besides greenhouse gases are anthropogenic aerosols.
Aerosols are airborne particles that scatter or absorb incoming solar
radiation, and affect cloud properties, therefore altering the surface
energy budget. Different aerosol species have different properties and
climate impacts, but perhaps the most important aerosols in the context
of global climate variability are sulphate aerosols, which account for a
large proportion of anthropogenic aerosol. As a scattering aerosol,
sulphate has a cooling effect on global climate and has partially offset
some of the warming induced by emissions of greenhouse gases. Although
we know that aerosols play an important role for global climate, the
magnitude of historical aerosol forcing remains very uncertain.
In a recently published study, we analyse how varying anthropogenic
aerosol emissions in a novel ensemble of climate model simulations with
a development version of HadGEM3-GC3.1 affects the simulated evolution
of global mean surface temperatures during the period from the 1850s to
near present-day.
The evolution of sulphate aerosol emissions, radiative forcing, global
temperature and Arctic sea ice extent in the large ensemble, with
different colours representing different scaling for historical aerosol
emissions.
Five ensemble members are run for each of five scaling factors applied
to anthropogenic aerosol emissions to sample a wide range of the
uncertainty in historical aerosol forcing and account for internal
variability in the climate system. We find that the magnitude of
anthropogenic aerosol forcing affects global temperatures as early as
the 1900s onwards, and the 1950-1980 period is particularly sensitive to
the magnitude of aerosol forcing. This is expected, as this period
corresponds to a period of rapid growth in aerosol emissions over
Europe, North America and Asia.
From 1980 onwards, global temperature trends are less sensitive to
changes in aerosol forcing, as declining aerosol emissions over North
America and Europe are compensated by continued increases over Asia. The
most important driver of simulated temperature trends in this period is
forcing from greenhouse gases.
In this climate model, simulations with present-day aerosol forcing more
negative than around -1 W/m2 are found to cool more in the mid-twentieth
century than observed and agreement with observed trends is improved for
simulations with weaker aerosol forcing. All ensemble members warm more
rapidly than observations suggest for the period 1980-2014 regardless of
aerosol scaling, which is likely related to the high sensitivity to
greenhouse gases common to many climate models of this generation. Going
forward, we hope these simulations will help us better understand how
historical aerosol forcing has shaped climate variability in the
twentieth and early twenty-first century beyond global temperatures.
About Ed Hawkins
Climate scientist in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)
at the University of Reading. IPCC AR5 Contributing Author. Can be found
on twitter too: @ed_hawkins
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2020/sensitivity-of-historical-climate-simulations-to-uncertain-aerosol-forcing/
[may be GM propaganda]
*Chile advances in breeding gene-edited crops that weather climate change*
BY DANIEL NORERO
MAY 29, 2020
After playing a key role in global genetically modified (GM) seed
production for two decades, Chile is now leading the way in publicly
developed gene-edited crops that address climate change impacts on local
agriculture.
- -
Stange emphasized the importance of modern biotechnology in contributing
to a healthier diet and serving as a tool that generates local products
with added value that are 100 percent adapted to the national
agricultural and climatic reality.
"Currently, the new varieties are acquired by paying royalties to
foreign companies," she explained. "This implies bringing in those
varieties and waiting a few seasons until they adapt to our
edaphoclimatic conditions -- and with the expectation that they will
produce the fruits as they are produced where they were generated. This
is a risk. In our case, these are varieties already produced and
marketed in Chile, to which we will add these new traits. In this way,
we will add value to the Chilean varieties of apples."
"It's relevant to generate varieties made in Chile that are also
healthier," Stange added. "Today's consumers are looking for foods that
are functional, with a higher content of antioxidants, vitamins, etc.
Those characteristics would be fulfilled by our apples with the highest
content of carotenoids, which are provitamin A molecules, and
antioxidants that counteract various diseases and aging."
Castillo describes biotechnology as an advanced tool that allows the
study of candidate genes that can assist breeding programs. "We are in a
genetic revolution, and as scientists we can create innovative research
solutions to face one of the greatest global challenges in food security
through an agriculture transformed by new technologies."
https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2020/05/chile-advances-in-breeding-gene-edited-crops-that-weather-climate-change/
[Opinion]
*My mom, little brother and I are 'climate refugees' from Florida | Column*
We fled Miami as Hurricane Irma approached, and driving to Chicago was
frightening.
By Luxha Aliheligi Phillips
I'm a climate refugee and that's the primary reason I am one of eight
young Floridians who are plaintiffs in a climate lawsuit, Reynolds v.
State of Florida. My name is Luxha Aliheligi Phillips, and the warming
climate has already affected my life.
In 2017, when I was 14 years old, Hurricane Irma was about to hit
Florida as a Category 4 or 5 storm. My mom realized that we could not
ride out the storm in Miami because we did not have the resources or
support locally. My mother, little brother and I lived right on the
water in a rented apartment near Brickell Avenue. There was a nearby
seawall and water often splashed over it onto the sidewalk.
Our cousins live in Chicago and they said we could stay with them. So,
my mom got on the computer to find a flight, but they were already filled.
The next morning at 6 a.m., we packed our stuff and our cat Jerry into
the car and left. We did not know how long we would be gone, or what
would be destroyed by the storm.
We brought hurricane supplies so our car was packed tight. My mom began
the drive and I fell asleep. When I woke up, we had been on the road for
hours in heavy traffic. We found ourselves in Georgia but it was
difficult to find a hotel room. My brother and I were nervous but
eventually we found a room and got some sleep.
We got on the road again the next day at 6 a.m. This time, I had to stay
awake and help my mom with the directions. I became her co-pilot for the
rest of the day.
Again, we were looking for a place to stay. It was scary looking for
hotels and we ended up getting lost. We finally found a hotel in
Tennessee that appeared sketchy. My mom was so worried that she put a
chair under the door handle to make sure we were safe. After about four
days of driving, we reached Chicago, but the journey was one I will
never forget.
The planet's air and water are getting warmer - and hurricanes get
energy from warm water. That is one reason hurricanes are getting more
destructive.
Hurricanes are causing more flooding due to sea-level rise. Rainfall can
be more intense due to warmer air holding more water. Irma was the most
powerful Atlantic hurricane in recorded history and climate change
contributed to the storm's magnitude.
The record-setting heat in Florida this Spring has resulted in the Gulf
of Mexico reaching record-breaking temperatures, which experts say could
contribute to another devastating hurricane season.
When I heard about the climate change lawsuit, I wanted to participate
because I want to be part of the solution. The suit contends that
Florida is denying me and the other seven plaintiffs our constitutional
right to a safe climate by failing to develop a plan to combat the
warming climate.
In the end, my family and I moved to Chicago two years after Hurricane
Irma. My mom could not deal with another hurricane season. She is a
single parent and we didn't have family nearby to help. I consider us
climate refugees because we left the state that we loved to avoid storms
that are getting more and more dangerous because the atmosphere and
oceans are getting hotter - and our political leaders are doing very
little to address the growing threat.
Even though we are kids, the problems that adults create affect us. We
can't vote. We aren't given the power to make change. We do however have
the power of our voices to demand change for future generations that
will have to carry the burden that those who came before us ignored.
This lawsuit gives me a voice and the power to demand that the courts
protect my constitutional rights. There's an important hearing in our
case on June 1, which is also the first day of hurricane season. My hope
is that both of them go well.
Luxha Aliheligi Phillips is one of the eight young Floridians suing
Florida officials for violating their constitutional rights to a stable
climate. "The Invading Sea" is the opinion arm of the Florida Climate
Reporting Network, a collaborative of news organizations across the
state focusing on the threats posed by the warming climate.
https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2020/05/31/my-mom-little-brother-and-i-are-climate-refugees-from-florida-column/
[Video talk]
*Arctic Sea Ice Loss Projections From the Latest-and-Greatest Climate
Simulation Models (CMIP6)*
Jun 3, 2020
Paul Beckwith
The latest, most sophisticated climate models of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) have been used to track Arctic Sea Ice
Area and Volume over time and make future projections. The vast majority
of models predict a practically ice free Arctic in summer (less than 1
million square km) before 2050. September sea ice area decreases at a
rate of 2.73 square meters per ton of CO2 emissions, and by 4 million
square km per degree Celsius of average global warming. Future
cumulative CO2 emissions of between 500 to 1,100 Gt should finish the
ice; with our present level of 40 Gt per year this is between 12.5 and
27.5 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0R2lsH837mQ
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - June 5, 2007 *
At a GOP presidential debate in New Hampshire, Rudy Giuliani declares:
"I think we have to accept the view that scientists have that there
is global warming and that human operation, human condition,
contributes to that. And the fact is that there is a way to deal
with it and to address it in a way that we can also accomplish
energy independence, which we need as a matter of national security.
It's frustrating and really dangerous for us to see money going to
our enemies because we have to buy oil from certain countries. We
should be supporting all the alternatives."
http://youtu.be/Wlqb1D9pDIs
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