[TheClimate.Vote] June 19, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*June 19, 2020*/

[Remember 30 years ago, now look ahead]
*Rising Seas Threaten an American Institution: The 30-Year Mortgage*
Climate change is starting to transform the classic home loan, a fixture 
of the American experience and financial system that dates back 
generations...
- -
In new research this month, Dr. Ouazad found that, since the housing 
crash, the share of homes with fixed-rate, 30-year mortgages has 
declined sharply -- to less than 80 percent, as of 2016 -- in areas most 
exposed to storm surges. In the rest of the country, the rate has stayed 
constant, at about 90 percent of home loans..
- -
The tougher question, according Carolyn Kousky, executive director of 
the Wharton Risk Center at the University of Pennsylvania, is what 
happens after that, when people quite simply no longer want to live in 
homes that keep flooding. "What happens when the water starts lapping at 
these properties, and they get abandoned?" she said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/climate/climate-seas-30-year-mortgage.html



[Wildfire today]
*Bighorn Fire north of Tucson burns past Mt. Lemmon*
June 18, 2020C
The fire grew by over 31,000 acres Wednesday
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Bighorn-Fire-1033-pm-MDT-June-17-2020.jpg
https://wildfiretoday.com/2020/06/18/bighorn-fire-north-of-tucson-burns-past-mt-lemmon/
[smoke map US]
*This is the forecast for the distribution of vertically integrated and 
near surface smoke at 7 p.m. MDT June 17, 2020. By NOAA.*
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Forecast-for-wildfire-smoke-7-pm-MDT-June-17-2020.jpg
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/land/hms.html



[See the data first - Climate Prediction Center]
*NOAA Climate Prediction Center*
See the 3 month outlook
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
[You want to bookmark this site]



[TIME Magazine says]
*Scientists Alarmed About Siberia's Record Breaking Winter and Spring 
Temperatures*
Scientists say that Siberia's unusually warm weather through winter and 
spring is "an alarming sign" -- illustrating some of the most notable 
effects of global climate change as the world warms. In May, surface 
temperatures "were up to 10 degrees Celsius above average in parts of 
Siberia," according to research by a climate agency affiliated with the 
European Commission.

"It is undoubtedly an alarming sign, but not only May was unusually warm 
in this region," says Freja Vamborg, Senior Scientist at the Copernicus 
Climate Change Service in a statement on Wednesday. "The whole of winter 
and spring had repeated periods of higher-than-average surface air 
temperatures."

The program reported just days earlier that May 2020 was "globally the 
warmest May on record," with the most "above-average temperatures (…) 
recorded over parts of Siberia." Marina Makarova, the chief 
meteorologist at Russia's Rosgidromet weather service said, "This winter 
was the hottest in Siberia since records began 130 years ago" and that 
"average temperatures were up to 6 degrees Celsius higher than the 
seasonal norms," The Guardian reported.

Vamborg points out that while the entire world is getting warmer, some 
regions -- like Western Siberia -- stand out for just how much hotter 
the area is getting. It's not unheard of for regions to experience 
"large temperature anomalies" like this, she notes. "However, what is 
unusual in this case is how long the warmer-than-average anomalies have 
persisted for," Vamborg says.

Negative impacts of warmer weather are already being felt in the region. 
Media reports have also revealed an "exceptionally early break-up of ice 
in Siberia's rivers," Copernicus notes. Moreover, just last month, 
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a state of emergency in the 
city of Norilsk after a massive oil spill in the Arctic region. The 
incident was caused by the collapse of a power plant. (Copernicus says 
this was "thought to be due to melting permafrost beneath the tank's 
supports.") Last year, the Siberian region also experienced devastating 
wildfires in which millions of acres burned.
https://time.com/5855604/siberia-climate-change/




[AP notices]
https://apnews.com/093fb315c9164da3cfae5c7cff4dc70d
*Vatican: Climate change efforts go forward even without US*
By FRANCES D'EMILIO
VATICAN CITY (AP) -- The Vatican stressed Thursday that the movement to 
combat climate change is unstoppable and worldwide, although it said it 
would welcome a U.S. return to the Paris agreement.

The Holy See's foreign minister, Monsignor Paul Gallagher, at a news 
conference marking five years since Pope Francis' encyclical "Laudato 
Si'" decrying human damage to the environment, insisted that "humanity 
will not be blown off course" by any one player's decision.

Last year, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration formally began 
the process to exit the climate deal, in which nearly 200 nations 
pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and assist poor nations 
struggling with the consequences of a warming Earth.

"We do believe that U.S. engagement in many fields is vital to the 
future of the world's environment," Gallagher said in response to a 
question about the U.S. pullout.

Still, as efforts on climate change go, "it's an irresistible world 
movement, a social movement, a movement of faith," and so "humanity will 
not be blown of course by any decision" to withdraw from the accords, he 
said...
- -
The worldwide COVID-19 outbreak struck as various Vatican departments 
were well into drafting a document calling on the faithful to carry out 
concrete local actions to mark the fifth anniversary of the encyclical 
that denounced the environment's exploitation and strongly recommended 
caring for the Earth.

In the anniversary document, the Vatican said the pandemic also laid 
bare the need to rethink political policies that have been aimed at 
reducing welfare programs. It didn't identify specific countries.

The document says that, provoked by the pandemic, "the health emergency, 
the solitude, the isolation to combat contagion, have put us suddenly 
face-to-face with our fragility as finite creatures."

Essentially, the document takes stock of how Catholics worldwide have 
responded to the pope's encyclical. The Vatican cites examples of 
concrete projects and grass-roots initiatives taken in recent years by 
local churches, charities or parishes to prevent environmental damage or 
save natural resources. Among them is a charity's project in Mongolia to 
reduce carbon dioxide emissions and another to help small-scale farmers 
in India reduce use of excessive fertilizer...
https://apnews.com/093fb315c9164da3cfae5c7cff4dc70d


[clearly so]
*Big corporate climate pledges often can't work without policy changes*
**Ben Geman, author of Generate
Lyft's newly announced plan to go 100% electric by 2030 blends ambition 
on climate with an admission that making good relies on variables it can 
perhaps influence but can't control.

Why it matters: The ride-hailing giant is admirably open about something 
that can get lost in the avalanche of big pledges over the last two 
years. They need policy changes to make it work.

Lyft outlined a pathway that starts with more near-term electric vehicle 
deployment through its driver rental program and more slowly spurring 
electrification of driver-owned cars used for the vast majority of Lyft 
rides.
But it cites the need for "unprecedented leadership from policymakers 
and regulators to align market rules and incentives for businesses and 
consumers alike."
This sort of acknowledgment is hardly unique in the burgeoning world of 
aggressive corporate climate pledges.
The big picture: Look closely at various pledges and you'll see that a 
number -- though not all -- rely on a mix of corporate decision-making, 
technology advancements and policy changes to help meet the goals.

For instance, consider Duke Energy, one of the largest utilities in the 
nation and among a growing number of power giants pledging net-zero 
emissions or 100% carbon-free electricity by midcentury.
Its plan to be net-zero emissions by 2050 is shot-through with policy 
discussion, such as "permitting reforms" that will enable deployment of 
new technologies.
One level deeper: All the giant European oil companies are now setting 
targets for steeply cutting "Scope 3" emissions -- that is, emissions 
from the use of their products in the economy, not just the 
comparatively small emissions from their own operations.

This either explicitly or tacitly acknowledges the role of policy in 
addition to their own business practices (and indeed the companies are 
also vowing to boost their advocacy).
Take the French multinational giant Total, which points out that it's 
aiming for net-zero overall emissions by 2050 "together with society" 
and that it will develop "active advocacy" around carbon pricing and more.
The bottom line: It's another lens onto something we've written about 
before that's getting a lot of attention as President Trump scales back 
federal efforts.

The burst of state, local and business emissions efforts can do a lot -- 
but they're not a substitute for national policy.
https://www.axios.com/corporate-climate-pledges-need-policy-changes-2545bf66-cfbe-43bb-8176-f9b71171b50d.html



[US heatwave]
*Scientists Predict Scorching Temperatures to Last Through Summer*
Hotter than normal temperatures are expected across almost all of the 
United States into September, government researchers said.

By Henry Fountain and John Schwartz
June 18, 2020
Following a May that tied for the hottest on record, the United States 
is heading into a potentially blistering summer, with hotter than normal 
temperatures expected across almost the entire country into September, 
government researchers said on Thursday.

Dan Collins, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 
Administration's Climate Prediction Center, said that for July, August 
and September across almost the entire United States "the average 
temperatures are likely to be above normal," especially in the West and 
Northeast.

The trends over the last few decades are clear. The most recent figures 
are in line with a general warming trend: Each decade since the 1960s 
has been warmer than the one before, and the five hottest years occurred 
in the second half of the last decade.

High temperatures were likeliest in the Mid-Atlantic states, Northeast 
and New England, and across much of the West, Rocky Mountains and 
Southwest. Only a small part of the Midwest, centered around Missouri, 
has an equal chance of lower-than-normal temperatures, according to an 
analysis by the Climate Prediction Center.
- -
That warmth will likely mean that drought conditions, currently 
experienced by nearly one-fourth of the country, will persist through 
the summer, NOAA scientists said.

Globally, last month was tied with 2016 for the hottest May on record, 
with average land and sea temperatures that were 0.95 degrees Celsius, 
or 1.71 degrees Fahrenheit, above the average dating back more than a 
century.

Areas with the warmest average temperatures included Alaska, the 
Southwestern United States, the Caribbean, parts of Western Europe and 
northern Asia.

But May was also cooler than average across much of the Plains and the 
East Coast, said Karin Gleason, a NOAA climatologist.

It is now virtually certain that globally, 2020 will be one of the five 
hottest years on record, she said. But it's less likely that 2020 will 
eclipse 2016 as the hottest ever. NOAA now estimates there is about a 50 
percent chance that 2020 will be a record breaker, down from about 75 
percent a month ago.
- - -
Gavin A. Schmidt, the director the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 
at NASA, said that the new information is in line with what is known 
about climate change: "There is a long-term trend in temperatures driven 
by human activity that is going to lead to more and more records being 
broken," he said. "Not every month, not every year -- but this will keep 
happening as long as we continue to emit carbon dioxide."

It's always hot in summer. How is this any different?
Yes, summer has always been the sweltering season. But like all the 
months of the year, summer months have been getting hotter, a 
consequence of human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases.

July is the hottest month of all on a global average (even though it is 
winter in the Southern Hemisphere). July 2019 was the hottest ever, with 
an average temperature that was 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit (about 1 degree 
Celsius) higher than the 20th century average for the month.

Could last July have been an anomaly, an extreme swing in a variable 
climate? No -- it's the continuation of a trend. The five hottest Julys 
have occurred in the last five years, and nine of the 10 hottest have 
occurred since 2005.

So I'll swelter during the day. But I'll get some relief at night, right?
Yes, the air will cool after dark, when the Earth's surface is no longer 
absorbing sunlight and giving off heat as a result. But on average you 
will not get as much relief as you used to because even the nights are 
warmer now, and they are warming faster than days.

That somehow seems contradictory, doesn't it? But scientists have 
offered several explanations.

For a given geographical area or season, changes in nighttime cloud 
cover may play a role (more clouds trap more heat), as could changes in 
precipitation or the moisture content of soils.
-  -
But there is another explanation that applies globally, involving the 
boundary layer, the lowest part of the atmosphere that is directly 
affected by the surface. During the day this layer can be a half-mile 
thick or more, but at night it becomes much thinner, about 500 feet or 
less. With a much lower volume of air, the boundary layer at night warms 
more from the heat trapped by greenhouse gases.

I live in a city, and the summer heat always seems worse for me than in 
the suburbs. Why is that?
No doubt you appreciate the vibrancy of your city, with its densely 
packed apartments and houses and its many shops, restaurants, theaters 
and other cultural venues, all easily accessible through a network of 
streets.
But to make way for all those buildings and streets, open space was 
destroyed. Trees and other vegetation disappeared. The few remaining 
vacant lots were gradually paved over to become parking lots.
And those buildings and streets absorb more of the sun's energy and 
radiate more heat than open spaces do. Densely packed, they also can 
block cooling winds. The trees and shrubs that disappeared? They used to 
provide shade and a cooling effect through evapotranspiration. All of 
that, plus the waste heat that results from transportation, industry and 
cooling, because engines and other energy-consuming equipment are not 
completely efficient, makes cities hotter.
Even within a city, research shows that temperatures on a hot summer day 
can vary as much as 20 degrees across different areas, with poor or 
minority neighborhoods often bearing the brunt of that heat.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/climate/summer-weather-prediction.html


[Heat in Siberia]
*Climate crisis: alarm at record-breaking heatwave in Siberia*
Unusually high temperatures in region linked to wildfires, oil spill and 
moth swarms

A prolonged heatwave in Siberia is "undoubtedly alarming", climate 
scientists have said. The freak temperatures have been linked to 
wildfires, a huge oil spill and a plague of tree-eating moths.

On a global scale, the Siberian heat is helping push the world towards 
its hottest year on record in 2020, despite a temporary dip in carbon 
emissions owing to the coronavirus pandemic.

Temperatures in the polar regions are rising fastest because ocean 
currents carry heat towards the poles and reflective ice and snow is 
melting away.

Russian towns in the Arctic circle have recorded extraordinary 
temperatures, with Nizhnyaya Pesha hitting 30C on 9 June and Khatanga, 
which usually has daytime temperatures of around 0C at this time of 
year, hitting 25C on 22 May. The previous record was 12C.

In May, surface temperatures in parts of Siberia were up to 10C above 
average, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). 
Martin Stendel, of the Danish Meteorological Institute, said the 
abnormal May temperatures seen in north-west Siberia would be likely to 
happen just once in 100,000 years without human-caused global heating.

Freja Vamborg, a senior scientist at C3S, said: "It is undoubtedly an 
alarming sign, but not only May was unusually warm in Siberia. The whole 
of winter and spring had repeated periods of higher-than-average surface 
air temperatures.

"Although the planet as a whole is warming, this isn't happening evenly. 
Western Siberia stands out as a region that shows more of a warming 
trend with higher variations in temperature. So to some extent large 
temperature anomalies are not unexpected. However, what is unusual is 
how long the warmer-than-average anomalies have persisted for."

Marina Makarova, the chief meteorologist at Russia's Rosgidromet weather 
service, said: "This winter was the hottest in Siberia since records 
began 130 years ago. Average temperatures were up to 6C higher than the 
seasonal norms."

Robert Rohde, the lead scientist at the Berkeley Earth project, said 
Russia as a whole had experienced record high temperatures in 2020, with 
the average from January to May 5.3C above the 1951-1980 average. "[This 
is a] new record by a massive 1.9C," he said.

In December, Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, commented on the 
unusual heat: "Some of our cities were built north of the Arctic Circle, 
on the permafrost. If it begins to thaw, you can imagine what 
consequences it would have. It's very serious."

Thawing permafrost was at least partly to blame for a spill of diesel 
fuel in Siberia this month that led Putin to declare a state of 
emergency. The supports of the storage tank suddenly sank, according to 
its operators; green groups said ageing and poorly maintained 
infrastructure was also to blame.

Wildfires have raged across hundreds of thousands of hectares of 
Siberia's forests. Farmers often light fires in the spring to clear 
vegetation, and a combination of high temperatures and strong winds has 
caused some fires to burn out of control.

Swarms of the Siberian silk moth, whose larvae eat at conifer trees, 
have grown rapidly in the rising temperatures. "In all my long career, 
I've never seen moths so huge and growing so quickly," Vladimir 
Soldatov, a moth expert, told AFP.

He warned of "tragic consequences" for forests, with the larvae 
stripping trees of their needles and making them more susceptible to fires.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/17/climate-crisis-alarm-at-record-breaking-heatwave-in-siberia


[BBC tries]
*Who is to blame for climate change?*
We know that climate change is caused by human activity, but pinning 
down exactly who is responsible is trickier than it might seem.

One of the most frustrating things about the climate crisis is that the 
fact that earlier action could have prevented it. With every passing 
year of inaction, the emissions cuts needed to limit global warming to 
relatively safe levels grow steeper and steeper.

Many groups have been accused of being at blame for this ongoing lack of 
action, from fossil fuel companies and wealthy countries, to 
politicians, rich people and sometimes even all of us...
- -
Amy Westervelt is a climate journalist who has spent years exploring the 
thinking behind big oil's strategy over the past decades, most recently 
in her podcast Drilled. She says there was a point in the late 1970s 
when oil companies in the US like Exxon appeared to be embracing 
renewables and increasingly viewing themselves energy companies, rather 
than just oil companies. But this mindset had changed completely by the 
early 1990s due to a series of oil crises and changing leadership, she 
says. "There was this real sort of shift in mindset from 'If we have a 
seat at the table, we can help to shape the regulations,' to 'We need to 
stop any kind of regulation happening.'"
Fossil fuel firms have since done "a great job" of making any kind of 
environmental concerns seem elitist, adds Westervelt. For example, Rex 
Tillerson, the Exxon chief executive who went on to be US secretary of 
state, repeatedly argued that cutting oil use to fight climate change 
would make poverty reduction harder. "They have this talking point that 
they've been trotting out since the 1950s, that if you want to make that 
industry cleaner in any way, then you're basically unfairly impacting 
the poor. Never mind that the costs don't actually have to be offloaded 
on to the public."

At the same time, fossil fuel companies have long employed PR tactics in 
a bid to control the narrative around climate change, says Westervelt, 
pushing doubts about the science and working to influence how people 
understand the role of fossil fuels in the economy. "They have put a 
real emphasis on creating materials for social studies, economics and 
civics classes that all centre the fossil fuel industry," says 
Westervelt. "I think there's a real lack of understanding about just how 
much that industry has shaped how people think about everything, and 
very deliberately so."

A small group of scientists with links to right-wing think tanks and 
industry have for decades distorted public debate by sowing doubt on 
well-established scientific knowledge in the US, including on climate, 
according to Merchants of Doubt, the 2010 exposé by historians Naomi 
Oreskes and Erik Conway. "Ever since scientists first began to explain 
the evidence that our climate was warming – and that human activities 
were probably to blame – people have been questioning the data, doubting 
the evidence and attacking the scientists who collect and explain it," 
they write...
- -
But it is not only through their ongoing extraction of fossil fuels that 
these companies have had such a huge impact on climate action. They have 
also worked hard to shape the public narrative. In 2015, an 
investigation by US website Inside Climate News revealed that the oil 
firm Exxon knew about climate change for decades and led efforts to 
block measures to cut emissions. Revelations like this have contributed 
to strong public anger at fossil fuels firms. Many now think that such 
companies have said and done everything they could to be able to 
continue extracting and burning fossil fuels – no matter the cost...
- -
Whether we label it blame or not, the question of who is responsible for 
the climate crisis is a necessary one. It will inevitably impact the 
solutions we propose to fix things.

But it's also important to acknowledge that allocating emissions to 
someone – the extractors of fossil fuels, the manufacturers who make 
products using them, the governments who regulate these products, the 
consumers who buy them – does not necessarily mean saying they are 
responsible for them.
- -
It's also worth remembering that the very concept of a personal carbon 
footprint was popularised by a wide-reaching 2005 BP media campaign. "It 
was the most brilliant example of 'It's your fault, not ours,'" says 
Westerwelt. "It's a framework that serves them really well because they 
can just say 'Oh well, if you really care then why are you driving an SUV?'"

Rich people
Concentrating on the influence of fossil fuel companies in the failure 
to reduce emissions means focusing on where the supply chain starts and 
the push to keep extracting fossil fuels. But we can also look at where 
it ends – the people who consume the final products from fossil fuels, 
and, more specifically, those who consume a fair bit more than the rest...
- -
But it is crucial to also acknowledge that we are all part of a bigger 
system that not everyone is equally complicit in holding up. "The we 
responsible for climate change is a fictional construct, one that's 
distorting and dangerous," writes climate scholar and author Genevieve 
Guenther. "By hiding who's really responsible for our current, 
terrifying predicament, [the pronoun] we provides political cover for 
the people who are happy to let hundreds of millions of other people die 
for their own profit and pleasure."

What Guenther is saying boils down to the question of who holds the 
power to create and change the systems that cause climate change. If you 
can only afford a home in an edge-of-town housing estate without access 
to public transport, is it really your fault for becoming dependent on a 
car?...
- -
Power differences between countries also play a strong role in the 
outcomes of international climate talks, says Adow. "Sadly, the 
countries that have the greatest historical responsibility for climate 
change continue to have the greatest influence on the climate regime," 
he says. "They are effectively abusing their power."

But even viewing climate inaction through this lens of power, those who 
have less of it can still act to confront it. Climate activist Greta 
Thunberg embodied this when in 2019 she told elites gathered in Davos 
that many of them were to blame for the climate crisis by sacrificing 
"priceless values" to "continue making unimaginable amounts of money". 
As one academic essay puts it: "To avoid [confronting] power is to risk 
condoning a system that is inherently unsustainable and unjust."

We may or may not feel that the blame for the climate crisis should be 
placed at someone's door. But whether we call it blame or not, it is 
still crucial that we untangle the structures of power and 
decision-making that continue to promote climate inaction. Only by 
better understanding how to change these can we hope to make the 
emissions cuts we now need so badly.
--
Jocelyn Timperley is a freelance climate change reporter. You can find 
her on Twitter @jloistf.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200618-climate-change-who-is-to-blame-and-why-does-it-matter



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - June 19, 2003 *
The New York Times reports
*REPORT BY E.P.A. LEAVES OUT DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE*
By Andrew C. Revkin With Katharine Q. Seelye
"The Environmental Protection Agency is preparing to publish a draft 
report next week on the state of the environment, but after editing by 
the White House, a long section describing risks from rising global 
temperatures has been whittled to a few noncommittal paragraphs."
- -
Among the deletions were conclusions about the likely human contribution 
to warming from a 2001 report on climate by the National Research 
Council that the White House had commissioned and that President Bush 
had endorsed in speeches that year. White House officials also deleted a 
reference to a 1999 study showing that global temperatures had risen 
sharply in the previous decade compared with the last 1,000 years. In 
its place, administration officials added a reference to a new study, 
partly financed by the American Petroleum Institute, questioning that 
conclusion.

In the end, E.P.A. staff members, after discussions with administration 
officials, said they decided to delete the entire discussion to avoid 
criticism that they were selectively filtering science to suit policy.

Administration officials defended the report and said there was nothing 
untoward about the process that produced it. Mrs. Whitman said that she 
was ''perfectly comfortable'' with the edited version and that the 
differences over climate change should not hold up the broader 
assessment of the nation's air, land and water...
- -
''Political staff are becoming increasingly bold in forcing agency 
officials to endorse junk science,'' said Jeremy Symons, a climate 
policy expert at the National Wildlife Federation. ''This is like the 
White House directing the secretary of labor to alter unemployment data 
to paint a rosy economic picture.''...
- -
Other sections of the coming E.P.A. report -- on water quality, 
ecological conditions, ozone depletion in the atmosphere and other 
issues -- all start with a summary statement about the potential impact 
of changes on human health and the environment, which are the two 
responsibilities of the agency.

But in the ''Global Issues'' section of the draft returned by the White 
House to E.P.A. in April, an introductory sentence reading, ''Climate 
change has global consequences for human health and the environment'' 
was cut and replaced with a paragraph that starts: ''The complexity of 
the Earth system and the interconnections among its components make it a 
scientific challenge to document change, diagnose its causes, and 
develop useful projections of how natural variability and human actions 
may affect the global environment in the future.''

Some E.P.A. staff members defended the document, saying that although 
pared down it would still help policy makers and the agency address the 
climate issue.

''This is a positive step by the agency,'' said an author of the report, 
who did not want to be named, adding that it would help someone 
determine ''if a facility or pollutant is going to hurt my family or 
make it bad for the birds, bees and fish out there.''
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/19/us/report-by-epa-leaves-out-data-on-climate-change.html 


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