[TheClimate.Vote] June 28, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Richard Pauli richard at theclimate.vote
Sun Jun 28 08:15:10 EDT 2020


/*June 28, 2020*/

[Nation analysis]
*Climate change: Ireland on the verge of its 'greenest government ever'*
Ireland stands on the brink of putting climate change at the heart of 
its government if Green Party members vote in favour of a new coalition.

The new administration plans to ban fracked gas imports from the US, 
make steep cuts in emissions and end new drilling for oil and gas.

Agreed in talks with two larger parties, the plan now needs the support 
of two thirds of Green members...
- -
"There's a new generation of activists that believe in climate justice 
and they don't feel that you can separate issues around housing, issues 
around finance, issues around taxation from environmental concerns," 
said Neasa Hourigan, who is a new Green party TD (Member of Parliament).

While she helped negotiate the programme for government, she is now 
urging members to reject it.

"Until you address everything in terms of the fabric of how we operate 
as a society, then really what you're doing is just compartmentalising 
something into one area and that's not going to effect real climate 
action," she told BBC News.

"It has to be system change instead of climate change."...
- -
"In a climate emergency when your house is on fire, you deal with the 
emergency and then when that's stabilised we'll get onto all the other 
good stuff," said John Gibbons...
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53147271



[good question - clips]
*FRANCE WANTS TO MAKE HURTING THE PLANET ILLEGAL, BUT WHAT IS ECOCIDE?*

    At the forefront of the CCC's suggestions is a call for 'ecocide',
    or the extensive damage of ecosystems, to become a crime in France.
    The group suggests that the decision to introduce climate
    protections into French law should be made by a referendum.

    Making 'ecocide' a crime will allow "planetary limits" for global
    warming, such as the 1.5 maximum proposed by the IPCC, to be
    enforced by a "higher authority" responsible for protecting the
    environment.

    Making ecocide illegal creates a legal duty of care for the
    environment giving it rights. It would make those who commission,
    the destruction of the natural world, like chief executives and
    government ministers, criminally liable.

    A bill featuring similar measures to make "the serious and lasting
    damage to the environment" a crime was rejected by the French Senate
    in 2019.

    The CCC has presented its proposals to protect the environment to
    Minister for Ecological Transition, Elisabeth Borne, and will meet
    with French president on the 29th June.

https://www.euronews.com/living/2020/06/25/france-wants-to-make-hurting-the-planet-illegal-but-what-is-ecocide



[Beyond the year 2100]
*[Nature Communications] Published: 08 May 2020*
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 
2300 from an expert survey

Benjamin P. Horton, Nicole S. Khan, Niamh Cahill, Janice S. H. Lee, 
Timothy A. Shaw, Andra J. Garner, Andrew C. Kemp, Simon E. Engelhart & 
Stefan Rahmstorf

Abstract
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are 
vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit 
projections from members of the scientific community regarding future 
global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally 
conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway 
(RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL 
rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 
1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise 
of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 
2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the 
projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original 
survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% 
(current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will 
exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the 
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. 
Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in 
upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential 
studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the 
meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
see the graph: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5/figures/1
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5



[at 71, now I agree]
*Pessimism about the future may lead to longer, healthier life*
Date: February 27, 2013
Source: American Psychological Association (APA)
Summary:
Older people who have low expectations for a satisfying future may be 
more likely to live longer, healthier lives than those who see brighter 
days ahead, according to new research published by the American 
Psychological Association.

"Our findings revealed that being overly optimistic in predicting a 
better future was associated with a greater risk of disability and death 
within the following decade," said lead author Frieder R. Lang, PhD, of 
the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg in Germany. "Pessimism about the 
future may encourage people to live more carefully, taking health and 
safety precautions." The study was published online in the journal 
Psychology and Aging.

Lang and colleagues examined data collected from 1993 to 2003 for the 
national German Socio-Economic Panel, an annual survey of private 
households consisting of approximately 40,000 people 18 to 96 years old. 
The researchers divided the data according to age groups: 18 to 39 years 
old, 40 to 64 years old and 65 years old and above. Through mostly 
in-person interviews, respondents were asked to rate how satisfied they 
were with their lives and how satisfied they thought they would be in 
five years.

Five years after the first interview, 43 percent of the oldest group had 
underestimated their future life satisfaction, 25 percent had predicted 
accurately and 32 percent had overestimated, according to the study. 
Based on the average level of change in life satisfaction over time for 
this group, each increase in overestimating future life satisfaction was 
related to a 9.5 percent increase in reporting disabilities and a 10 
percent increased risk of death, the analysis revealed.

Because a darker outlook on the future is often more realistic, older 
adults' predictions of their future satisfaction may be more accurate, 
according to the study. In contrast, the youngest group had the sunniest 
outlook while the middle-aged adults made the most accurate predictions, 
but became more pessimistic over time.

"Unexpectedly, we also found that stable and good health and income were 
associated with expecting a greater decline compared with those in poor 
health or with low incomes," Lang said. "Moreover, we found that higher 
income was related to a greater risk of disability."

The researchers measured the respondents' current and future life 
satisfaction on a scale of 0 to 10 and determined accuracy in predicting 
life satisfaction by measuring the difference between anticipated life 
satisfaction reported in 1993 and actual life satisfaction reported in 
1998. They analyzed the data to determine age differences in estimated 
life satisfaction; accuracy in predicting life satisfaction; age, gender 
and income differences in the accuracy of predicting life satisfaction; 
and rates of disability and death reported between 1999 and 2010. Other 
factors, such as illness, medical treatment or personal losses, may have 
driven health outcomes, the study said.

The findings do not contradict theories that unrealistic optimism about 
the future can sometimes help people feel better when they are facing 
inevitable negative outcomes, such as terminal disease, according to the 
authors. "We argue, though, that the outcomes of optimistic, accurate or 
pessimistic forecasts may depend on age and available resources," Lang 
said. "These findings shed new light on how our perspectives can either 
help or hinder us in taking actions that can help improve our chances of 
a long healthy life."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/02/130227101929.htm
- - - -
[better check the source on this one]
Forecasting life satisfaction across adulthood: Benefits of seeing a 
dark future?
Lang, Frieder R.,Weiss, David,Gerstorf, Denis,Wagner, Gert G.
Lang, F. R., Weiss, D., Gerstorf, D., & Wagner, G. G. (2013).
Forecasting life satisfaction across adulthood: Benefits of seeing a 
dark future?
Psychology and Aging, 28(1), 249-261. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0030797

Anticipating one's future self is a unique human capacity that 
contributes importantly to adaptation and health throughout adulthood 
and old age. Using the adult life span sample of the national German 
Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP; N [is above] 10,000, age range 18 to 96 
years), we investigated age-differential stability, correlates, and 
outcomes of accuracy in anticipation of future life satisfaction across 
6 subsequent 5-year time intervals. As expected, we observed few age 
differences in current life satisfaction but stronger age differences in 
future expectations: Younger adults anticipated improved future life 
satisfaction, overestimating their actual life satisfaction 5 years 
later. By contrast, older adults were more pessimistic about the future, 
generally underestimating their actual life satisfaction after 5 years. 
Such age differences persisted above and beyond the effects of 
self-rated health and income. Survival analyses revealed that, in later 
adulthood, underestimating one's life satisfaction 5 years later was 
related to lower hazard ratios for disability (n = 735 became disabled) 
and mortality (n = 879 died) across 10 or more years, even after 
controlling for age, sex, education, income, and self-rated health. 
Findings suggest that older adults are more likely to underestimate 
their life satisfaction in the future and that such underestimation was 
associated with positive health outcomes.
https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fa0030797


[Activism news]
*What is Real Security | Extinction Rebellion*
What are the links between the military and climate change? How is 
campaigning for the environment linked to the campaign for Nuclear 
Disarmament? How can we build successful campaigns as we lift out of the 
Covid Crisis?

Join XR Peace founder, Angie Zelter in conversation with Marine turned 
war-abolitionist Brian Jones, anti-nuclear and environmental activist 
David Collins, Nobel Peace Prize winner Rebecca Johnson and Quaker, 
feminist and peace activist Janet Fenton as they discuss the links 
between war, climate and energy.

Co-hosted by XR PEACE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNVxLiDuOic

- - -

[See also]
*THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE & SECURITY*
EXPLORING THE SECURITY RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
https://climateandsecurity.org/



[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - June 28, 2006 *

The documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?" is released in the United 
States. (Executive producer Dean Devlin and electric-car advocate 
Chelsea Sexton would appear on the July 7, 2006 edition of "EcoTalk with 
Betsy Rosenberg" on Air America to discuss the film.)

http://youtu.be/k96tIRjxzw0
http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/07/who_killed_the_.html 


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