[TheClimate.Vote] June 28, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sun Jun 28 08:15:10 EDT 2020
/*June 28, 2020*/
[Nation analysis]
*Climate change: Ireland on the verge of its 'greenest government ever'*
Ireland stands on the brink of putting climate change at the heart of
its government if Green Party members vote in favour of a new coalition.
The new administration plans to ban fracked gas imports from the US,
make steep cuts in emissions and end new drilling for oil and gas.
Agreed in talks with two larger parties, the plan now needs the support
of two thirds of Green members...
- -
"There's a new generation of activists that believe in climate justice
and they don't feel that you can separate issues around housing, issues
around finance, issues around taxation from environmental concerns,"
said Neasa Hourigan, who is a new Green party TD (Member of Parliament).
While she helped negotiate the programme for government, she is now
urging members to reject it.
"Until you address everything in terms of the fabric of how we operate
as a society, then really what you're doing is just compartmentalising
something into one area and that's not going to effect real climate
action," she told BBC News.
"It has to be system change instead of climate change."...
- -
"In a climate emergency when your house is on fire, you deal with the
emergency and then when that's stabilised we'll get onto all the other
good stuff," said John Gibbons...
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53147271
[good question - clips]
*FRANCE WANTS TO MAKE HURTING THE PLANET ILLEGAL, BUT WHAT IS ECOCIDE?*
At the forefront of the CCC's suggestions is a call for 'ecocide',
or the extensive damage of ecosystems, to become a crime in France.
The group suggests that the decision to introduce climate
protections into French law should be made by a referendum.
Making 'ecocide' a crime will allow "planetary limits" for global
warming, such as the 1.5 maximum proposed by the IPCC, to be
enforced by a "higher authority" responsible for protecting the
environment.
Making ecocide illegal creates a legal duty of care for the
environment giving it rights. It would make those who commission,
the destruction of the natural world, like chief executives and
government ministers, criminally liable.
A bill featuring similar measures to make "the serious and lasting
damage to the environment" a crime was rejected by the French Senate
in 2019.
The CCC has presented its proposals to protect the environment to
Minister for Ecological Transition, Elisabeth Borne, and will meet
with French president on the 29th June.
https://www.euronews.com/living/2020/06/25/france-wants-to-make-hurting-the-planet-illegal-but-what-is-ecocide
[Beyond the year 2100]
*[Nature Communications] Published: 08 May 2020*
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and
2300 from an expert survey
Benjamin P. Horton, Nicole S. Khan, Niamh Cahill, Janice S. H. Lee,
Timothy A. Shaw, Andra J. Garner, Andrew C. Kemp, Simon E. Engelhart &
Stefan Rahmstorf
Abstract
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are
vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit
projections from members of the scientific community regarding future
global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally
conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL
rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to
1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise
of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for
2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the
projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original
survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45%
(current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will
exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%.
Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in
upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential
studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the
meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
see the graph: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5/figures/1
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-020-0121-5
[at 71, now I agree]
*Pessimism about the future may lead to longer, healthier life*
Date: February 27, 2013
Source: American Psychological Association (APA)
Summary:
Older people who have low expectations for a satisfying future may be
more likely to live longer, healthier lives than those who see brighter
days ahead, according to new research published by the American
Psychological Association.
"Our findings revealed that being overly optimistic in predicting a
better future was associated with a greater risk of disability and death
within the following decade," said lead author Frieder R. Lang, PhD, of
the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg in Germany. "Pessimism about the
future may encourage people to live more carefully, taking health and
safety precautions." The study was published online in the journal
Psychology and Aging.
Lang and colleagues examined data collected from 1993 to 2003 for the
national German Socio-Economic Panel, an annual survey of private
households consisting of approximately 40,000 people 18 to 96 years old.
The researchers divided the data according to age groups: 18 to 39 years
old, 40 to 64 years old and 65 years old and above. Through mostly
in-person interviews, respondents were asked to rate how satisfied they
were with their lives and how satisfied they thought they would be in
five years.
Five years after the first interview, 43 percent of the oldest group had
underestimated their future life satisfaction, 25 percent had predicted
accurately and 32 percent had overestimated, according to the study.
Based on the average level of change in life satisfaction over time for
this group, each increase in overestimating future life satisfaction was
related to a 9.5 percent increase in reporting disabilities and a 10
percent increased risk of death, the analysis revealed.
Because a darker outlook on the future is often more realistic, older
adults' predictions of their future satisfaction may be more accurate,
according to the study. In contrast, the youngest group had the sunniest
outlook while the middle-aged adults made the most accurate predictions,
but became more pessimistic over time.
"Unexpectedly, we also found that stable and good health and income were
associated with expecting a greater decline compared with those in poor
health or with low incomes," Lang said. "Moreover, we found that higher
income was related to a greater risk of disability."
The researchers measured the respondents' current and future life
satisfaction on a scale of 0 to 10 and determined accuracy in predicting
life satisfaction by measuring the difference between anticipated life
satisfaction reported in 1993 and actual life satisfaction reported in
1998. They analyzed the data to determine age differences in estimated
life satisfaction; accuracy in predicting life satisfaction; age, gender
and income differences in the accuracy of predicting life satisfaction;
and rates of disability and death reported between 1999 and 2010. Other
factors, such as illness, medical treatment or personal losses, may have
driven health outcomes, the study said.
The findings do not contradict theories that unrealistic optimism about
the future can sometimes help people feel better when they are facing
inevitable negative outcomes, such as terminal disease, according to the
authors. "We argue, though, that the outcomes of optimistic, accurate or
pessimistic forecasts may depend on age and available resources," Lang
said. "These findings shed new light on how our perspectives can either
help or hinder us in taking actions that can help improve our chances of
a long healthy life."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/02/130227101929.htm
- - - -
[better check the source on this one]
Forecasting life satisfaction across adulthood: Benefits of seeing a
dark future?
Lang, Frieder R.,Weiss, David,Gerstorf, Denis,Wagner, Gert G.
Lang, F. R., Weiss, D., Gerstorf, D., & Wagner, G. G. (2013).
Forecasting life satisfaction across adulthood: Benefits of seeing a
dark future?
Psychology and Aging, 28(1), 249-261. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0030797
Anticipating one's future self is a unique human capacity that
contributes importantly to adaptation and health throughout adulthood
and old age. Using the adult life span sample of the national German
Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP; N [is above] 10,000, age range 18 to 96
years), we investigated age-differential stability, correlates, and
outcomes of accuracy in anticipation of future life satisfaction across
6 subsequent 5-year time intervals. As expected, we observed few age
differences in current life satisfaction but stronger age differences in
future expectations: Younger adults anticipated improved future life
satisfaction, overestimating their actual life satisfaction 5 years
later. By contrast, older adults were more pessimistic about the future,
generally underestimating their actual life satisfaction after 5 years.
Such age differences persisted above and beyond the effects of
self-rated health and income. Survival analyses revealed that, in later
adulthood, underestimating one's life satisfaction 5 years later was
related to lower hazard ratios for disability (n = 735 became disabled)
and mortality (n = 879 died) across 10 or more years, even after
controlling for age, sex, education, income, and self-rated health.
Findings suggest that older adults are more likely to underestimate
their life satisfaction in the future and that such underestimation was
associated with positive health outcomes.
https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fa0030797
[Activism news]
*What is Real Security | Extinction Rebellion*
What are the links between the military and climate change? How is
campaigning for the environment linked to the campaign for Nuclear
Disarmament? How can we build successful campaigns as we lift out of the
Covid Crisis?
Join XR Peace founder, Angie Zelter in conversation with Marine turned
war-abolitionist Brian Jones, anti-nuclear and environmental activist
David Collins, Nobel Peace Prize winner Rebecca Johnson and Quaker,
feminist and peace activist Janet Fenton as they discuss the links
between war, climate and energy.
Co-hosted by XR PEACE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNVxLiDuOic
- - -
[See also]
*THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE & SECURITY*
EXPLORING THE SECURITY RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
https://climateandsecurity.org/
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - June 28, 2006 *
The documentary "Who Killed the Electric Car?" is released in the United
States. (Executive producer Dean Devlin and electric-car advocate
Chelsea Sexton would appear on the July 7, 2006 edition of "EcoTalk with
Betsy Rosenberg" on Air America to discuss the film.)
http://youtu.be/k96tIRjxzw0
http://blogsofbainbridge.typepad.com/ecotalkblog/2006/07/who_killed_the_.html
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