[TheClimate.Vote] November 6, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Nov 6 09:22:49 EST 2020
/*November 6, 2020*/
[NYT says]
*Cutting Greenhouse Gases From Food Production Is Urgent, Scientists Say*
Efforts to limit global warming often focus on emissions from fossil
fuels, but food is crucial, too, according to new research.
- -
Food production results in emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and
other planet-warming gases in many ways, including land clearing and
deforestation for agriculture and grazing, digestion by cattle and other
livestock, production and use of fertilizers and the cultivation of rice
in flooded paddies. Overall emissions are equivalent to about 16 billion
metric tons of carbon dioxide a year, or about 30 percent of total
global emissions.
While the world tends to focus on reducing emissions from fossil-fuel
burning, the new study shows cutting emissions from food is crucial,
too, the researchers said.
"Food systems are sort of the dark horse of climate change," said Jason
Hill, senior author of the paper and a professor at the University of
Minnesota.
The researchers forecast how emissions would change in coming decades as
the world population grows, diets and consumption patterns change as
some countries become more affluent, and crop yields increase. They
found that food-related emissions alone would quite likely result in the
world exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius limit in 30 to 40 years. Food
emissions alone would bring the world close to the 2-degree limit by 2100...
Dr. Loken said that without changes, food emissions were expected to
double by 2050. "And the wiggle room to meet the Paris limits is so
small," he said.
Dr. Hill said that the study did not consider potential shifts like the
entire world population adopting a vegan diet. "We wanted to present the
ones that were realistic goals," he said. "A plant-rich diet is a
realistic goal. We're not saying in this paper to hit these targets we
have to give up animal products. But there need to be some dietary
shifts toward the healthier diets."
Dr. Clark said that he was optimistic that dietary shifts and other
changes in the food system could be made in time to have an effect on
global warming. He and others are currently working on determining what
policies and behavioral changes it may be possible to implement.
"Maybe it's a combination of nudges at grocery stores, and top-down
policies from governments," he said. "It could be very bureaucratic or
individualistic."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/climate/climate-change-food-production.html
[view to the future]
*How 2030 is the new 2100: Global Food Yields Already Dropping from
Abrupt Climate Change*
Jul 12, 2019
Paul Beckwith
2030 is the new 2100. Climate change is ALREADY reducing global food
yields TODAY, with an average 1% annual reduction in the worlds top ten
global crops, providing 83% of food calories to humanity: top ten food
crops: barley, cassava, maize (corn), oil palm, rapeseed (canola), rice,
sorghum, soybean, sugarcane, wheat. Most reduced: oil palm (-13.4%);
increased: soybeans (+3.5%). Negatively affected regions are Europe,
South Africa, and Australia; +ve is Latin America; mixed is Asia, North
and Central America. Growing season temperatures over all harvested
areas is up 0.5 to 1.2 C since the early 1970s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SModhHUpcj0
- -
[source material]
*Climate change has likely already affected global food production*
Deepak K. Ray ,Paul C. West,Michael Clark,James S. Gerber,Alexander V.
Prishchepov,Snigdhansu Chatterjee
Published: May 31, 2019https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0217148
Abstract
Crop yields are projected to decrease under future climate
conditions, and recent research suggests that yields have already
been impacted. However, current impacts on a diversity of crops
subnationally and implications for food security remains unclear.
Here, we constructed linear regression relationships using weather
and reported crop data to assess the potential impact of observed
climate change on the yields of the top ten global crops–barley,
cassava, maize, oil palm, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean,
sugarcane and wheat at ~20,000 political units. We find that the
impact of global climate change on yields of different crops from
climate trends ranged from -13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). Our
results show that impacts are mostly negative in Europe, Southern
Africa and Australia but generally positive in Latin America.
Impacts in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. This has
likely led to ~1% average reduction (-3.5 X 1013 kcal/year) in
consumable food calories in these ten crops. In nearly half of food
insecure countries, estimated caloric availability decreased. Our
results suggest that climate change has already affected global food
production.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0217148
[Paleo]
NOVEMBER 5, 2020
*Past is key to predicting future climate, scientists say*
by University of Arizona
In a review paper published in the journal Science, a group of climate
experts make the case for including paleoclimate data in the development
of climate models. Such models are used globally to assess the impacts
of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, predict scenarios for future
climate and propose strategies for mitigation...
- -
Several of the latest generation models that are being used for the next
report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, have a
higher climate sensitivity than previous iterations, Tierney explained.
"This means that if you double carbon dioxide emissions, they produce
more global warming than their previous counterparts, so the question
is: How much confidence do we have in these very sensitive new models?"
In between IPCC reports, which typically are released every eight years,
climate models are being updated based on the latest research data...
- -
"The key is CO2," Tierney said. "Whenever we see evidence of warm
climate in the geologic record, CO2 is high as well."
Some models are much better than others at producing the climates seen
in the geologic record, which underscores the need to test climate
models against paleoclimates, the authors said. In particular, past warm
climates such as the Eocene highlight the role that clouds play in
contributing to warmer temperatures under increased carbon dioxide levels.
"We urge the climate community to test models on paleoclimates early on,
while the models are being developed, rather than afterwards, which
tends to be the current practice," Tierney said. "Seemingly small things
like clouds affect the Earth's energy balance in major ways and can
affect the temperatures your model produces for the year 2100."
more at - https://phys.org/news/2020-11-key-future-climate-scientists.html
[from the journal Nature - 04 NOVEMBER 2020]
*Scientists aghast as hopes for landslide Biden election victory vanish*
With so many votes cast for Trump in US election, some researchers
conclude that they must work harder to communicate the importance of
facts, science and truth...
*The hard truth*
For some researchers, the fact that the election has come down to the
wire is evidence that scientists simply aren't connecting with the
general population. Whatever happens, says Naomi Oreskes, a science
historian at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, "we have a
lot of work ahead of us".
Distrust of Trump within the scientific community stems from his
rejection of climate science, his rollback of numerous environmental
regulations and his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has now
killed more than 230,000 people in the United States. Nature's own
survey of its scientist readers demonstrated their condemnation for
these actions: of the approximately 580 respondents eligible to vote,
87% said they would be doing so for Biden...
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03120-8
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - November 6, 1990 *
November 6, 1990: In a speech to the 2nd World Climate Conference in
Geneva, Margaret Thatcher declares, "The danger of global warming is as
yet unseen, but real enough for us to make changes and sacrifices, so
that we do not live at the expense of future generations."
http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/108237
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