[TheClimate.Vote] September 23, 2020 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Sep 23 09:44:59 EDT 2020
/*September 23, 2020*/
[RBG and the future]
*How Justice Ginsburg's Death Could Affect Future Climate Rulings*
Legal experts say a sixth conservative Supreme Court judge could imperil
current and future emissions regulations...
Legal experts say that the addition of a sixth conservative justice to
the court could lock in opposition to expansive readings of the Clean
Air Act that encompass greenhouse gas emissions or trigger a
reexamination of the landmark 2007 climate case Massachusetts v. EPA .
In either case, court watchers say, the outcome doesn't bode well for
the future of climate regulation. Advertisement "Climate change is a
crisis, and we really need all the tools we can get, and some of them
are probably not going to be there," said Dan Farber, a law professor at
the University of California, Berkeley.
"If Trump is able to fill this vacancy, there'll be at least five
conservative votes for at least 20 years, and we don't know what … new
doctrines that are not now on the horizon that could really weaken the
power of the government to deal with climate change," he said.
The Trump administration has made environmental deregulation a
cornerstone of its agenda for the last four years, rolling out […]
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-justice-ginsburgs-death-could-affect-future-climate-rulings/
[Greta tells Rainn Willson what to do, a nice 6 min video]
*Rainn Wilson FINALLY Meets Greta Thunberg | An Idiot's Guide to Climate
Change**
*Sep 1, 2020
SoulPancake
Rainn Wilson is on a mission to learn more about climate change and the
effects it's having on our planet. In this episode, he talks with
powerhouse and climate change activist Greta Thunberg about the state of
our planet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBkWgutg4V4
["Think of it as one of the coolest months of August in California in
the next century."]
*Climate Disruption is Now Locked In. The Next Moves Will Be Crucial.*
- -
Again and again, climate scientists have shown that our choices now
range from merely awful to incomprehensibly horrible.
If we cut emissions rapidly, about one-seventh of the world's population
will suffer severe heat waves every few years. Failure to do so doubles
or triples that number. If we act now, sea levels could rise another 1
to 2 feet this century. If we don't, Antarctica's ice sheets could
destabilize irreversibly and ocean levels could keep rising at an
inexorable pace for centuries, making coastal civilization all but
unmanageable.
The best hope is to slow the pace of warming enough to maintain some
control for humanity.
"In our research, we've found that most systems can cope with a
1.5-degree or 2-degree world, although it will be very costly and
extremely difficult to adapt," said Dr. Hayhoe of Texas Tech University.
"But in a 4-degree world, in many cases, the system just doesn't work
anymore."
So, even as nations cut emissions, they will need to accelerate efforts
to adapt to the climate change they can no longer avoid. "We need to
figure out how to put ourselves less in harm's way," said Gernot Wagner,
a climate economist at New York University.
Humans are remarkably resilient. Civilizations thrive in climates as
different as Saudi Arabia and Alaska.
When disaster strikes, we've demonstrated an ability to unite and
respond. In 1970 and 1991, two major tropical cyclones hit Bangladesh,
killing a half-million people. The country then built an extensive
network of early-warning systems and shelters, and strengthened building
codes. When another major cyclone struck in 2019, just five people died.
"The human capacity for adaptation is extraordinary -- not unlimited,
but extraordinary," said Greg Garrard, professor of environmental
humanities at the University of British Columbia. He added, "I'm much
more concerned for the future of the nonhuman than I am for the future
of humans, precisely because we're just very, very good at adaptation."
But as the case in Bangladesh illustrates, adaptation is usually a
reactive measure, not a preventive one. Adapting to climate change means
envisioning bigger disasters to come -- again, flipping the framing away
from history and into the future...
- -
*Cascading Disasters*
Adaptation can quickly become bogged down in a tangle of competing
motivations and unintended consequences. Proposals for stricter building
codes or higher insurance premiums face opposition from builders and
voters alike.
And there's the moral hazard problem, which is when people are shielded
from the costs of their decisions and thus make bad ones. For instance,
local communities reap increased property taxes from allowing buildings
to rise in disaster-prone areas, but they don't pick up most of the tab
for disaster recovery -- the federal government does.
Another challenge to adaptation is that, as climate change intensifies,
it increases the risk of "compound hazards," when numerous disasters
strike simultaneously, as well as the risk that one disaster cascades
into another.
In late 2017, large wildfires scorched Santa Barbara, Calif., burning
away vegetation that stabilized hillside soils. Heavy rainfall followed
a month later. The result: devastating mudflows that killed 23 and
injured 163.
In Houston in 2017, Hurricane Harvey shut down gasoline refineries,
strained hospitals and spread toxic substances and pathogens as
floodwaters swamped the city. And when the Camp Fire destroyed Paradise,
Calif., in 2018, nearly 20,000 displaced people arrived in nearby Chico,
which suddenly found its sewage system pushed to the limits...
- -
"It's really challenging to predict exactly where and how all of those
cascading risks will unfold," said Amir Aghakouchak, a climate scientist
at the University of California, Irvine, who studies compound hazards.
Experts also noted that climate change is an accelerant of inequality.
Those most affected, globally and in the United States, tend to be the
most vulnerable populations. Many are also among the people at highest
risk for Covid-19...
- -
"I feel like the climate scientists have kind of done our job," said Dr.
Kalmus, the Los Angeles-based scientist. "We've laid it out pretty
clearly, but nobody's doing anything. So now it's kind of up to the
social scientists."
Will the recent spate of disasters be enough to shock voters and
politicians into action?
"We have a lot of evidence that that doesn't happen," said Dr. Garrard
of the University of British Columbia.
One 2017 study found that people who experience extreme weather are more
likely to support climate adaptation measures than before. But the
effect diminished over time. It may be that people mentally adjust to
unusual weather patterns, updating their perception of what they
consider normal.
All of it can feel overwhelming, particularly for people wanting to make
a difference. Susan Cutter, who directs the Hazards and Vulnerability
Research Institute at the University of South Carolina, noted that
climate change's biggest problem may be the sense that it is beyond our
control. The planet is burning, so does it really matter if I turn off
the light?
"There's too much complexity and, frankly, too much that needs to be
changed, that we're flitting from one concern to another," she said...
- -
And if optimism springs from knowledge, the good news is that scientific
research lays out what to do. It's not a mystery, nor is it beyond the
bounds of human ability.
"What's beautiful about the human species is that we have the free will
to decide our own fate," said Ilona Otto, a climate scientist at the
Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change. "We have the agency to
take courageous decisions and do what's needed," she said. "If we choose."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/climate/climate-change-future.html
[ no face saving ]
*Facebook suspends environmental groups despite vow to fight misinformation*
Facebook blames mistake in system for restrictions on groups including
Greenpeace USA
Facebook has suspended the accounts of several environmental
organizations less than a week after launching an initiative it said
would counter a tide of misinformation over climate science on the platform.
Groups such as Greenpeace USA, Climate Hawks Vote and Rainforest Action
Network were among those blocked from posting or sending messages on
Facebook over the weekend. Activists say hundreds of other individual
accounts linked to indigenous, climate and social justice groups were
also suspended for an alleged "intellectual property rights violation".
The suspended people and groups were all involved in a Facebook event
from May last year that targeted KKR & Co, a US investment firm that is
backing the Coastal GasLink pipeline, a 670km-long gas development being
built in northern British Columbia, Canada.
The suspensions, the day before another online action aimed at KKR & Co,
has enraged activists who oppose the pipeline for its climate impact and
for cutting through the land of the Wet'suwet'en, a First Nations people...
"Videos of extreme violence, alt-right views and calls for violence by
militias in Kenosha, Wisconsin, are allowed to persist on Facebook,"
said Delee Nikal, a Wet'suwet'en community member. "Yet we are banned
and receive threats for permanent removal, for posting an online petition."
Many of the accounts have now been restored, but a handful are still
blocked, with no fuller explanation coming from Facebook...
- -
"We're committed to tackling climate misinformation," Facebook said in a
statement that also outlined its own efforts to reduce its own net
greenhouse gas emissions to zero this year. The information center will
include posts from trusted scientific sources, rated by fact-checkers.
"As with all types of claims debunked by our fact-checkers, we reduce
the distribution of these posts in News Feed and apply a warning label
on top of these posts both on Facebook and Instagram so people
understand that the content has been rated false," the company said.
But climate organizations have questioned whether Facebook is doing
enough to cut down on untruths about the climate crisis that are spread
across the site. In 2018, for example, a video that denied that human
activity was driving the climate crisis was shared on Facebook and
viewed 5m times.
Articles and videos about climate change can be deemed opinion, meaning
under Facebook guidelines they can't be blocked by its factcheckers.
This loophole meant that that this month the CO2 Coalition, a group that
argues more carbon dioxide is good for the planet, managed to overturn a
factcheck on an article that attacked the accuracy of climate models. A
factcheck rated the piece as "false" but it was published by Facebook
when labelled as opinion.
"Actions speak louder than words and once again Facebook has taken
actions that are in stark contrast to public statements from the
company," said Elizabeth Jardim, senior corporate campaigner at
Greenpeace USA.
"The recent bans targeting people fighting to save their communities
from climate change and the continued exploitation of fossil fuel
companies show us that when push comes to shove, Facebook will side with
polluters at the cost of their users' trying to organize."
Facebook was contacted for comment.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/22/facebook-climate-change-environment-groups-suspended
[aviation emissions]
*Guest Post - Calculating the true climate impact of aviation emissions*
Prof David S Lee and Prof Piers Forster, Carbon Brief
Two authors of a new paper published in the journal Atmospheric
Environment explain their updated analysis of aviation's contribution to
global warming. They show that, when all its impacts are taken into
account, aviation represents *around 3.5% of the warming impact caused
by humans in the present day. *
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-calculating-the-true-climate-impact-of-aviation-emission
https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/aviationemissions1-2.jpg
[Military thinking]
CLIMATE AND SECURITY
*Complex Emergencies and Alliance Strength*
By Christine Parthemore
Late summer 2020 is serving as yet another reminder that the 21st
century will be profoundly shaped by complex and compounding
emergencies. In the United States alone, the confluence of severe
natural disasters with the COVID-19 pandemic is jarring even those of us
who focus on such threats for a living. Multiple hurricanes and tropical
storms are proceeding toward the East and Gulf Coasts. The wildfire
season across the Western U.S. is creating apocalyptic conditions. As
Robinson Meyer described in The Atlantic, "In 2018…I noted that six of
the 10 largest wildfires in state history had happened since 2008. That
list has since been completely rewritten. Today, six of California's 10
largest wildfires have happened since 2018--and five of them have
happened this year." At the same time, as of mid-September the nation is
still seeing around 39,000 new COVID-19 cases being reported each day as
we near a staggering 200,000 deaths from this pandemic. These events are
overlaid on the profound shifts resulting from decades of injustice and
systemic racism in our society.
I learned much about the challenges of simultaneous, complex emergencies
from collaboration with allies like Japan and South Korea. While serving
in the Pentagon, I had the honor of helping to arrange Japan-U.S.
exchanges to share lessons on all-hazards crisis responses in the years
after the devastating March 2011 Triple Disasters (an earthquake and
massive tsunami that also triggered a nuclear emergency). Lately, I've
been following up with friends from Japan to think back to this
collaboration--which spanned how our countries prepare for chemical and
biological attacks, natural disasters, pandemics, nuclear accidents, and
more--and the critical role of working with allies to prepare for crises
of all kinds and prevent them when possible.
In early September, I wrote with two colleagues on this subject for
Sasakawa USA. In the years ahead, strength in the U.S.-Japan alliance
should be a high priority. Working together on these issues can and
should be part of that agenda.
In particular in light of the wake-up call on biological threats from
COVID-19 and climate security threats both here in the United States and
across the Indo-Pacific region, we recommended that the United States
and Japan consider expanding collaboration on these issues. In
particular, we suggested that our countries could consider a "joint
center of excellence to help lead the international community in
preparedness for complex emergencies."
This would build on a long tradition of cooperation in disaster response
and preparedness for Japan and the United States, and leverage lessons
our countries have learned from past and current experiences with
complex emergencies--including from when responses have gone well and
when they have not.
https://climateandsecurity.org/2020/09/complex-emergencies-alliance-strength/#more-21105
- -
[Peace]
*The Japan-U.S. Alliance and Climate Security:*
*Building on the Alliance's History for Future Preparedness and Response*
Rachel Fleishman, Shiloh Fetzek, and Christine Parthemore
September 4, 2020...
- -
*Conclusion*
In summary, Japan and the United States will continue to see daunting
challenges as climate change, environmental, and resource issues
influence the course of security and stability in the Indo-Pacific
region. The alliance should build on its unique history of collaboration
in disaster preparedness and response in order to mitigate these threats.
Importantly, these issues are inseparable from other security
considerations and dynamics, whether they be maritime disputes, nuclear
security concerns, displacement and migration of large populations, and
relations across the region's nations. Recognizing these connections,
Japan and the United States can make great strides in mitigating these
risks and supporting their national interests in the region by enhancing
climate and environmental security cooperation.
To download this paper as a PDF, please click
https://spfusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/The-Japan-U.S.-Alliance-and-Climate-Security.pdf
https://spfusa.org/research/the-japan-u-s-alliance-and-climate-security-building-on-the-alliances-history-for-future-preparedness-and-response/
[left thinking]
*Policy Change Afoot Now That Climate Chaos Hit The Monied Folk*
Sep 22, 2020
act.tv
Julianna welcomes back recurring guest, The Nation's Sasha Abramsky, to
discuss how the California wildfires have been some of the most
devastating in history, and it's changing the way Californians live.
According to Sasha, looking out his window he can see "gigantic,
wind-driven wildfires which have created apocalyptic, 40,000-foot-high
smoke plumes." He is here with us today to talk about what's causing
the fires and how we can show solidarity with the people who are
impacted by them.
Sasha Abramsky is a freelance journalist and teaches journalism at UC
Davis. He writes the Signal:Noise column twice weekly for The Nation
magazine. He also writes a regular column for Truthout and his writings
have appeared over years in Atlantic, New Yorker online, NY Times,
Guardian, Rolling Stone, American Prospect, Mother Jones, and more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAjHycldO3o
[5 printed books - video discussion]
*Want to understand climate change? Read these 5 books*
Sep 18, 2020
Simon Clark
Climate change can be overwhelming. It is the biggest challenge
currently facing the world. So here are five books that you can read to
understand it better.
Links to the books:
- *Uninhabitable Earth* https://geni.us/uninhabitableearth
- *Discovery of Global Warming* https://geni.us/weartdiscovery
- *Merchants of Doubt *https://geni.us/merchantsofdoubt
- *Don't Even Think About It* https://geni.us/marshallthink
- *This Changes Everything* https://geni.us/kleinclimate
- *Drawdown* https://geni.us/drawdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLLKfmn4gp4
[Oxford leadership]
Oxford Climate Society aims to develop the next generation of informed
climate leaders, thinkers, movers and shakers.
www.oxfordclimatesociety.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOoksFYBCHqZWwVBU9qewZg/about
*Oxford Climate Society - The Freshers Guide*
Sep 22, 2020
Oxford Climate Society
In this short introduction video, Our president, Nathan Lawson offers an
overview of the Oxford Climate Society, outlining the main projects,
initiatives and schemes that are ongoing and showing ways that freshers
can get involved with the society.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCFvfGPhTHs
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - September 23, 1976 *
President Gerald Ford and Democratic challenger Jimmy Carter discuss
energy policy in the first of three presidential debates; both men
express support for "cleaner" coal.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAqIKybNO38 -- (29:35--36:57)
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