[✔️] August 4, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[👀 Richard Pauli]

/*August 4, 2021*/

[opinion from Gov of Oregon]*
**The West Is on Fire. It’s Past Time to Act on Climate Change.*
By Kate Brown -- Aug. 3, 2021
- -
What we need now is bold action from Congress. The recently announced 
infrastructure deal, which includes the largest ever investment in 
electric vehicle infrastructure, is a great start, but we must continue 
to do more. As the bills are finalized in the legislative process, 
lawmakers must look for opportunities to reduce emissions and modernize 
the electrical grid. We have an opportunity right now to get millions of 
Americans back to work in clean energy jobs, address the climate crisis 
and center equity in our investments.

Building back better means building a more just and equitable country 
for all. In Oregon, we have taken decisive action on climate while still 
growing our economy, with many green technology companies choosing 
Oregon for their operations.

States and cities are on the front lines of the climate crisis. But this 
is a problem that knows no borders. Climate change is playing out here 
now, with a fury, but it will be in your backyard next. People are 
dying. Congress must act, now.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/opinion/wildfires-oregon-west-congress.html

- -

[Fire report -- video]
*Update and Forecast for Dixie Fire, McFarland Fire, Monument Fire, and 
Other Western Wildfires*
Streamed live August 3, 2012
Holt Hanley Weather
Unfortunately, we have seen a large increase in our fire activity over 
the last 24 hours. The Dixie Fire was looking good just a couple of days 
ago, but due to some unfavorable weather conditions we have returned to 
more extreme fire behavior. The warm/dry/windy air lead to a number of 
spot fires, which were able to jump containment lines, and have 
continued to spread ever since. Due to this continued growth, there are 
a number of new evacuation warnings in place.
Using the satellite imagery, you can see the other large wildfires going 
on in Northern California including the McFarland Fire, the Monument 
Fire, the Haypress Fire, the Summer Fire, and a number of other smaller 
blazes. These continue to spread rapidly given the large amount of dry 
fuels and the steep terrain in the region.
Throughout this video, we'll dive into all the important updates, as 
well as the fire weather forecast to predict how all these wildfires may 
change in the coming days.

You can also check out my Twitter page where I post more concise updates 
on the current wildfires: https://twitter.com/HoltHanleyWX

Update and Forecast for Dixie Fire, McFarland Fire, Monument Fire, and 
Other Western Wildfires - Chapters:
0:00 = Introduction
2:47 = Dixie Fire Update/Forecast
26:13= McFarland/Monument and Other NorCal Fires Update/Forecast
41:50 = Summary of Western Wildfires

You can obtain the latest information by going to:

    https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7746/
    https://www.weather.gov
    https://www.fire.ca.gov
    https://inciweb.nwcg.gov
    https://www.windy.com
    https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntq--c-c1Rw



[Follow the money]
*Redfin to include ‘climate risk’ in all listings as Americans consider 
climate change when buying*
By Laurel Deppen on August 3, 2021
https://www.geekwire.com/2021/redfin-include-climate-risk-listings-americans-consider-climate-change-buying/amp/



[no so permanent-frost]
*Scientists expected thawing wetlands in Siberia’s permafrost. What they 
found is ‘much more dangerous.’*
A 2020 heat wave unleashed methane emissions from prehistoric limestone 
in two regions stretching 375 miles, study says
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/08/02/climate-change-heat-wave-unleashes-methane-from-prehistoric-siberian-rock/
- -
[New source of methane revealed]
*Climate crisis: Siberian heatwave led to new methane emissions, study says*
Leak of potent greenhouse gas is currently small but further research is 
urgently needed, say scientists...

The Siberian heatwave of 2020 led to new methane emissions from the 
permafrost, according to research. Emissions of the potent greenhouse 
gas are currently small, the scientists said, but further research is 
urgently needed.

Analysis of satellite data indicated that fossil methane gas leaked from 
rock formations known to be large hydrocarbon reservoirs after the 
heatwave, which peaked at 6C above normal temperatures. Previous 
observations of leaks have been from permafrost soil or under shallow seas.

Most scientists think the risk of a “methane bomb” – a rapid eruption of 
huge volumes of methane causing cataclysmic global heating – is minimal 
in the coming years. There is little evidence of significantly rising 
methane emissions from the Arctic and no sign of such a bomb in periods 
that were even hotter than today over the last 130,000 years.

However, if the climate crisis worsens and temperatures continue to 
rise, large methane releases remain possibility in the long term and 
must be better understood, the scientists said.
Methane is 84 times more powerful in trapping heat than carbon dioxide 
over a 20-year period and has caused about 30% of global heating to 
date. Its concentration in the atmosphere is now at two and a half times 
pre-industrial levels and continuing to rise, but most of this has come 
from fossil fuel exploitation, cattle, rice paddies and waste dumps...
- -
The areas where methane emissions rose coincided very closely with the 
geological boundaries of limestone formations that are several hundred 
kilometres long and already exploited by gas drilling at the western end 
of the basin. Gas stored in fractures in the limestone would be trapped 
by a solid layer of permafrost. “We think that with this [heatwave], the 
surface became unstable, which released the methane,” Froitzheim said.

The study concluded with the suggestion that “permafrost thaw does not 
only release microbial methane from formerly frozen soils, but also, and 
potentially in much higher amounts, [fossil] methane from reservoirs 
below. As a result, the permafrost–methane feedback may be much more 
dangerous than suggested by studies accounting for microbial methane 
alone.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/02/climate-crisis-siberian-heatwave-led-to-new-methane-emissions-study-says

- -

[PNAS article]
*Methane release from carbonate rock formations in the Siberian 
permafrost area during and after the 2020 heat wave*
PNAS August 10, 2021
Abstract

    Anthropogenic global warming may be accelerated by a positive
    feedback from the mobilization of methane from thawing Arctic
    permafrost. There are large uncertainties about the size of carbon
    stocks and the magnitude of possible methane emissions. Methane
    cannot only be produced from the microbial decay of organic matter
    within the thawing permafrost soils (microbial methane) but can also
    come from natural gas (thermogenic methane) trapped under or within
    the permafrost layer and released when it thaws. In the Taymyr
    Peninsula and surroundings in North Siberia, the area of the
    worldwide largest positive surface temperature anomaly for 2020,
    atmospheric methane concentrations have increased considerably
    during and after the 2020 heat wave. Two elongated areas of
    increased atmospheric methane concentration that appeared during
    summer coincide with two stripes of Paleozoic carbonates exposed at
    the southern and northern borders of the Yenisey-Khatanga Basin, a
    hydrocarbon-bearing sedimentary basin between the Siberian Craton to
    the south and the Taymyr Fold Belt to the north. Over the
    carbonates, soils are thin to nonexistent and wetlands are scarce.
    The maxima are thus unlikely to be caused by microbial methane from
    soils or wetlands. We suggest that gas hydrates in fractures and
    pockets of the carbonate rocks in the permafrost zone became
    unstable due to warming from the surface. This process may add
    unknown quantities of methane to the atmosphere in the near future.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/32/e2107632118

- -

[New Models relate to methane]
*UN Climate Panel Contends With Models Showing Implausibly Fast Warming*
Next week, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 
(IPCC) will unveil its latest scientific assessment, widely considered 
the most authoritative review of climate research. But ahead of its 
release, scientists have had to grapple with the fact that several 
next-generation models used in the assessment project that the Earth 
will warm far faster than previous estimates, Science reported.

“You end up with numbers for even the near-term that are insanely scary 
— and wrong,” Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for 
Space Studies, told Science...
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/un-climate-panel-contends-with-models-showing-implausibly-fast-warming

- -

[Lessons not learned will be repeated]
*Heat waves to drastically worsen in Northern Hemisphere, studies warn*
Climate models project heat waves will regularly break records and 
induce more heat stress before the end of the century
By Kasha Patel - August 3, 2021

In July 1936, the central United States roasted during one of the most 
notable summers of the Dust Bowl-era. Parched lands, low rainfall and a 
strong ridge of high pressure over the region led to record-breaking 
temperatures in the Upper Mississippi River Valley — a handful of which 
still stand today. La Crosse, Wis., experienced temperatures at or above 
90 degrees Fahrenheit for two consecutive weeks. Nationally, about 5,000 
deaths were linked to the heat wave.

But if those same conditions happened now, the outcomes would be worse.

“If the same weather patterns of the 1930s-era heat waves occurred today 
again, they would happen in a much, much warmer climate,” said Erich 
Fischer, scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in 
Zurich. “The heat wave we would experience will be way, way warmer than 
they were in the 1930s.”

As global temperatures have increased, extreme heat events in the 
Northern Hemisphere have occurred with greater frequency and intensity. 
Deadly, record-crushing heat waves have scorched parts of the United 
States, Europe and the Arctic in just the past two decades. The World 
Health Organization reports that more than 160,000 heat-related deaths 
occurred from 1998 to 2017 globally.

Recent studies show the magnitude of extreme heat events, and their 
effect on people will escalate in coming decades if greenhouse gas 
emissions from human activities are not slashed. Climate models show 
record-breaking heat waves and heat stress will more than double in the 
northern midlatitudes before the end of the century.

*More severe record-shattering heat waves*
Extreme heat events have been occurring more in recent decades: the 2003 
European heat wave, the Russian heat spell in 2010, Australia’s 
“angriest summer” in 2018-2019, the Siberian heat anomaly in 2020 and 
the Pacific Northwest heat blitz in 2021.

“These record-breaking behaviors haven’t received enough attention [in 
adaptation and planning], and, in many places, we haven’t seen anything 
close to the most intense heat waves possible,” said Fischer. “We need 
to plan for events that shatter the records we have seen over recent 
decades.”

In a study published last week in Nature Climate Change, Fischer and his 
colleagues ran nearly 100 computer simulations to determine the 
frequency and intensity of record-breaking heat waves with future 
projections of Earth’s climate. They defined the intensity of the events 
by the margin by which they broke previous records.

They found week-long record-breaking heat events were up to seven times 
more likely to occur from 2021 to 2050. From 2051 to 2080, these events 
were up to 21 more times likely to occur and could happen every six to 
37 years somewhere in the northern midlatitudes. These events would 
break previous heat records by 6.4 to 7.6 degrees Fahrenheit (3.6 to 4.2 
Celsius).

The recent Pacific Northwest heat wave exemplified the team’s findings, 
even though they began working on this study more than two years ago. 
The event broke previous temperature records by more than 9 degrees 
Fahrenheit (5 Celsius). Fischer states that “such an event is completely 
outside the realm of all our expectations” if only considering past 
observations and not future climate projections.

*The Pacific Northwest heat wave was shocking but not a surprise*
The team found that the probability of these large-margin, 
recording-breaking heat waves is directly related to the speed of warming.

“It suddenly matters that we currently warm at 0.2 degrees Celsius [0.36 
Fahrenheit] per decade,” said Fischer, stressing that faster rates of 
warming make setting records more probable.

Since 1880, Earth’s average global temperature has increased by slightly 
more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius). Two-thirds of that 
warming has occurred since 1975, at around 0.35 degrees (0.2 Celsius) 
per decade.

Pacific Northwest heat wave was ‘virtually impossible’ without climate 
change, scientists find

Slowing the pace of global warming would lessen the chance of 
record-shattering events. Fischer said that if temperatures could be 
stabilized, then heat events would not break records by such large 
margins after a couple of decades.

But that is not to say non-record-breaking heat events would be harmless.

“If a heat wave strikes again, even if it’s not record shattering, 
people would still be very heavily impacted,” Fischer said. “For some of 
these impacts, it’s often even worse if the same event occurs over and 
over again, even if it doesn’t have a high magnitude.”

*More danger to our bodies*
Heat stress is one of the most serious effects of extreme heat events on 
the human body. It occurs when temperatures and relative humidity are 
high enough that the body can no longer get rid of the extra heat and 
cool itself. Heat stress can lead to heat exhaustion, heat cramps, heat 
strokes and death.

How climate change is making parts of the world too hot and humid to survive

In a study published in the journal Earth’s Future in April, a team of 
researchers investigated how heat stress would intensify along with 
general increases in temperature, relative humidity and population in 
the Lower 48 U.S. states over the next century.

They found the potential impact of heat stress of short- to 
medium-duration (one to seven days) is likely to double in the United 
States by 2060 to 2099, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to be high. 
The risk tripled, though, in places with heavier populations, such as 
Central California, the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region.

“Ironically, one of the regions for which we predict the greatest 
increases is the Pacific Northwest (as much as a tripling in under a 
high carbon emissions scenario), which was struck by the infamous ‘heat 
dome’ this summer,” wrote Michael Mann, an author of the study and a 
climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, in an email.

Potential heat stress risk for 2060-2099 accounting for climate and 
population growth projections, if greenhouse gas emissions remain high 
(the RCP8.5 scenario). Risk ratios (RR) is defined as the potential 
impact of the future divided by the potential impact of the present 
(1980-2019), where a value above 1 represents a future increase. 
(Mukherjee et al. (2021) Earth’s Future 10.1029/2020EF001886)
Unlike in many other heat stress analyses, the team included a proxy for 
heat acclimatization, or the ability of our bodies to adapt to changes 
in temperature.

“If there is a gradual increase in the temperature, then our body can 
adjust to that,” said Ashok Mishra, an author of the study and a civil 
engineer at Clemson University. “If it’s less variable, our body will 
observe that pattern. It’s that sudden increase in the heat stress that 
will bring more problems.”

Mishra explained that temperatures have not been rising in a linear 
fashion since the 1960s, instead increasing with more variability. The 
variability makes it more difficult for our bodies to adapt to the 
sudden changes in temperature. The team accounted for the fluctuating 
and rapid changes by including intraseasonal variability, which previous 
studies have not done...
- -
“The extreme weather events this summer are a reminder that the impacts 
of climate change could well be worse than the models currently 
suggest,” wrote Mann. “These events could well exceed our adaptive 
capacity, underscoring the urgency of actions to prevent a worsening of 
the climate crisis, i.e. rapid decarbonization of our economy.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/08/03/heat-wave-stress-climate-change/



[Survey conclusions]
*Yale report · Aug 3, 2021
Americans’ Actions to Limit and Prepare For Global Warming*
Today we are pleased to release a new report on Americans’ Actions to 
Limit and Prepare for Global Warming. Overall, we find that many 
Americans have yet to take household or political actions to limit 
global warming or prepare for climate impacts. A few highlights:

*Household Actions to Limit Global Warming*
  Some Americans have deliberately bought energy-efficient products, 
including kitchen appliances (52%), home water heaters (39%), air 
conditioners (38%), or a fuel-efficient car (37%). Fewer, however, have 
purchased an energy-efficient home furnace (28%), services from 
businesses that are explicitly eco-friendly (18%), or electricity 
generated from renewable sources (12%).

*Household Actions to Prepare for Global Warming*
  Global warming is linked to increased likelihood and severity of many 
natural disasters, including floods, fires, hurricanes, and extreme 
weather. Most Americans (83%) have thought at least a little about 
preparing for a natural disaster, but fewer have given this a “great 
deal of thought” (12%). Likewise, relatively few have an emergency 
supply kit in their home (40%) or a disaster emergency plan that all 
members of their family know about (28%). In this summer of 
record-setting extreme events, it remains critical to encourage families 
to prepare to protect themselves and their loved ones.
*
**Political Actions to Limit Global Warming*
  About half of Americans (52%) say they would sign a petition about 
global warming. Three in ten or more say they would donate money (33%) 
or volunteer time (31%) to an organization working on global warming. 
One in four or more say they would write or phone government officials 
(28%), or meet with an elected official or their staff (25%), about 
global warming. Finally, about one in four (26%) would support an 
organization engaging in non-violent civil disobedience against 
corporate or government activities that make global warming worse, and 
14% would personally engage in such non-violent civil disobedience.

But relatively few Americans say they have actually engaged in political 
action to reduce global warming in the last year, including signing a 
petition (15%), donating money to an organization working on the issue 
(13%), or volunteering for such an organization (6%). This indicates that
there is considerable potential to grow the climate movement.

The report includes many more important results, including Americans’ 
collective and political actions to limit and prepare for global warming 
in their own communities.
https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-actions-to-limit-and-prepare-for-global-warming/
- -
*Executive Summary*
https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/americans-actions-to-limit-and-prepare-for-global-warming/2/



[Opinion manipulation battleground]

*Exxon Invaded My Roku*
By Molly Taft

A familiar—and unwelcome—logo popped up on the screen: ExxonMobil. I 
brushed it off at first; Big Oil was not going to get between me and my 
rewatch of Succession. But I kept seeing Exxon’s ad floating across my 
TV in subsequent weeks. It turns out streaming services are opening up a 
whole host of new advertising opportunities for Big Oil.

I first spotted the ad on Roku’s screensaver—a cityscape graphic the 
service uses when the TV is on but at rest, complete with “billboard” 
advertisements that float gently across the screen. It appeared again a 
few days later in Roku’s main menu, in the sidebar alongside where users 
can select channels. Selecting the ad took me to a separate, 
Exxon-branded screen.


The background was an improbably beautiful mountain scene, the likes of 
which fossil fueled-fires are currently burning through. It was titled 
“Fuel Your Next Adventure.” There, I was treated to an ad for Exxon’s 
Synergy gas and offered a choice of three different streaming channels 
to check out: Tastemade, a food and travel channel; Magellan TV, which 
offers documentaries; and Outside TV, the streaming arm of the 
outdoors-focused magazine brand.

Seeing the Exxon logo continually popping up on my TV screen was jarring 
for me, an innocent climate reporter just trying to stream 90 Day Fiancé 
in my off time, so I reached out to Roku to figure out what the heck it 
was that I’d just seen. A spokesperson told me that the page was a 
“streaming guide”—a way a brand can work with Roku to promote itself on 
the service by suggesting content their target audience might like. The 
spokesperson sent me a post on the company’s advertising blog that 
details some of the types of advertising companies can buy on the platform.

“If you want to recommend content to viewers, offer a guide of top 
streaming channels that your audience will most likely want to watch,” 
the blog post says about the “streaming guide” example. It uses a 
screenshot of a collection of food and cooking channels put together by 
egg producer Eggland’s Best for a “Home Cooking For The Holidays” 
collection: the Food Network, Eater, and Food52. (Mmm, eggs.)

It’s a great idea for a brand to tap into Roku like this. The platform 
is the U.S.’s most popular smart TV streaming service by a big margin, 
dominating 38% of the market share at the end of 2020, besting options 
like Amazon Fire and Apple TV. Roku boasted more than 51 million 
accounts at the start of this year (14 million of which, the company 
said, were added in 2020 alone).

As Roku’s blog post explains, the enormous amount of content at our 
fingertips means that viewers spend a lot of time on that home screen 
just trying to figure out what to watch: The average user, surveys have 
shown, takes seven minutes trying to decide what to stream, and more 
than half of viewers turn on their TV without knowing what they actually 
want to watch. (Guilty.) It’s pretty clear that as users move away from 
live TV and onto different streaming platforms, there are lots of 
opportunities for these platforms to sell new kinds of space for 
companies to plop an ad in front of viewers browsing for their next 
binge watch.

The choice of channels reflected in the Exxon Roku ad—science 
documentaries the outdoors—paint a specific picture of the audience 
Exxon is trying to reach: people interested in travel, culture, and 
science who care about the environment. It fits with a pattern of other 
fossil fuel company advertising Earther has tracked recently from Shell 
tapping Instagram travel and science influencers to promote gas to 
reality host and faux-man-of-the-people Mike Rowe’s new Discovery+ show 
being propped up by the American Petroleum Institute. (Ads for Rowe’s 
show have also popped up on my Roku, so maybe fossil fuel companies 
think I’m in their audience zone. Which, lol.)

It was jarring to see Exxon using Outside, a company focused on the 
splendor of the outdoors, and Magellan TV, which has a huge selection of 
documentaries on science and nature, to advertise itself. Did these 
companies know about the Exxon deal—or even get a cut of it? Emails to 
Roku as well as Outside TV and its owner, Pocket Outdoor Media, went 
unanswered. But a representative from Magellan TV’s PR group said in an 
email that “Roku controls all if [sic] its own advertising initiatives 
which are strictly between Roku and its advertisers” and any questions 
about the Roku guides should be sent to the streaming company.

“MagellanTV is not a party to these deals in any way,” they wrote. 
“MagellanTV’s revenue is derived solely from customer subscriptions to 
its documentary streaming platform.”

The company confirmed in a subsequent email that they had no input on or 
participation in the ad—which marks a pretty serious departure from how 
advertising usually works. In the past, TV channels like Outside or 
Magellan would work directly with a company like Exxon on deals like this.

The addition of a third-party platform that controls how viewers reach 
both the advertiser and the brand in question significantly changes this 
equation, though. Roku is the one connecting Exxon to brands like 
Outside and Magellan, allowing the oil company to create a connection 
between itself and outdoorsy viewers. This is despite the fact that 
Exxon is one of the largest corporate polluters in history that has also 
spent decades denying science and stonewalling action to address carbon 
pollution.

The role of advertising in promoting fossil fuel companies has come 
under fire in recent months, with activists calling for public health 
warnings to be attached to ads from Big Oil and advertising companies 
distancing themselves from working with fossil fuel companies. (After 
Earther reported on advertising company Carmichael Lynch’s role in 
creating an ad campaign for Conoco, for instance, the company changed 
its case study to remove a line bragging about how much gas the campaign 
had sold.)

In light of all this pressure, putting an ad on a Roku screen is a 
pretty creative move. A Roku promo, in essence, helps Exxon clean up its 
image by using brands that promote science and the outdoors, while not 
allowing those brands themselves any input. It illustrates the game of 
whack-a-mole we’re all playing as Big Oil is racing to find ways to 
preserve its influence and buff its grease-stained reputation. The 
industry will always dream up new ways to advertise its product—and find 
ways to reach us at our most vulnerable, like on our couches gearing up 
for a good old-fashioned binge watch.

https://gizmodo.com/exxon-invaded-my-roku-1847413047/amp






[The news archive - looking back]

*On this day in the history of global warming August 4, 2002*

August 4, 2002: In a New York Times op-ed, Al Gore notes:

"I believe Bill Clinton and I were right to maintain, during our 1992 
campaign, that we should fight for 'the forgotten middle class' against 
the 'forces of greed.' Standing up for 'the people, not the powerful' 
was the right choice in 2000. And, in fact, it is the Democratic Party's 
meaning and mission. The suggestion from some in our party that we 
should no longer speak that truth, especially at a time like this, 
strikes me as bad politics and, worse, wrong in principle.

"This struggle between the people and the powerful was at the heart of 
every major domestic issue of the 2000 campaign and is still the central 
dynamic of politics in 2002. The choice, not just in rhetoric but in 
reality, was and still is between a genuine prescription drug benefit 
for all seniors under Medicare -- or a token plan designed to trick the 
voters and satisfy pharmaceutical companies. The White House and its 
allies in Congress have just defeated legislation that would have 
fulfilled the promises both parties made in 2000.

"The choice was and still is between a real patients' bill of rights -- 
or doing the bidding of the insurance companies and health maintenance 
organizations. Here again: promise made, promise broken. The choice was 
and still is an environmental policy based on conservation, new 
technologies, alternative fuels and the protection of natural wonders 
like the Alaskan wilderness -- or walking away from the grave challenge 
of global warming, doing away with Superfund cleanups and giving in on 
issue after issue to those who profit from pollution."

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/04/opinion/broken-promises-and-political-deception.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm




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