[✔️] August 6, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
👀 Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Fri Aug 6 09:37:22 EDT 2021
/*August 6, 2021*/
[DW video ]
*Mediterranean region reels from wildfires | DW News*
Aug 5, 2021
DW News
A record heatwave is fueling devastating wildfires across much of the
southern Mediterranean and eastern Europe. Hundreds of blazes have
broken out – many of them multiplying in recent days. Italy, Croatia,
Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, and Ukraine
are tackling dozens of wildfires. Scientists have linked them largely to
the intense heat - which they say is made more likely and more severe by
global warming.
Greece's Prime Minister says the country is facing an unprecedented
environmental crisis. The fires have wiped out swaths of forests,
destroyed infrastructure – and even threatened Olympia, the site of the
ancient Olympic games.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XOiWGEzlNA
[weather ahead]
*NOAA and CSU converge on an active hurricane season ahead*
Potential development is already on the horizon in the eastern Atlantic.
by JEFF MASTERS and BOB HENSON
Residents of Hurricane Alley now have even more reason to anticipate an
above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for the rest of 2021, said NOAA’s
Climate Prediction Center on Wednesday, August 4. In addition, after a
long quiet spell, there now are two disturbances in the Atlantic,
including one with the potential to become a tropical depression by next
week (see below).
In its second seasonal forecast for 2021, NOAA predicted a 65% chance
for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, up from 60% in its first
outlook for the season on May 20. There is a 25% chance for a
near-normal season (down from 20% in the prior outlook), and a 10%
chance for a below-normal season.
NOAA gave a 70% likelihood of 15-21 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5
major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale) and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 110-190% of the
median. Taking the midpoint of these ranges, NOAA called for 18 named
storms, 8.5 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, compared to 16.5, 8, and
4 in the May outlook. The 1981-2010 seasonal averages are 12 named
storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
So far in 2021, there have been five named storms, one hurricane (Elsa),
and an ACE index of 12.8. All of these quantities are above average for
this date, and NOAA’s forecast includes this activity.
NOAA cited four main factors influencing its Atlantic forecast:
1) There’s been an era of high Atlantic hurricane activity for more
than 25 years. Since 1995, 18 of 26 (about two-thirds) of seasons have
been above average and only 4 (15%) have been below average, based on
the 1951-2020 climatology of ACE. Most (10 out of the 18) of the
above-normal years were hyperactive (ACE > 165% of median). The
continuation of the high-activity era is related to a set of conditions
including lower wind shear, weaker trade winds, and stronger than
average West African Monsoon.
2) ENSO conditions remain neutral this summer, and there is increasing
potential for a La Niña event to develop over the next few months (up
to a 55% chance for the September-November period, according to the most
recent outlook, issued in early July). (ENSO refers to El Niño/ Southern
Oscillation, which has three phases: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña.)El
Niño suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic by increasing the
amount of vertical wind shear and dry, stable air that tends to prevail
over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, which includes
the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 10°N and
20°N latitude.
3) Near to slightly below-average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have
been measured in portions of the tropical Atlantic during much of June
and July, favoring a near-normal season. In addition, surface pressures
have been above normal, which does not favor an active season.
4) An early-season named storm (Elsa) formed on July 1 in the eastern
Caribbean. Historically, years with early-season activity in this region
have a much higher likelihood of being above-normal.
NOAA reiterated these perennial words of wisdom: “It only takes one
storm hitting an area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall
activity for the season. Therefore, residents, businesses, and
government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to
prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other,
seasonal outlook.” ...
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/noaa-and-csu-converge-on-an-active-hurricane-season-ahead/
[wildfire data on video]
*Update and Forecast for Dixie Fire, McFarland Fire, Antelope Fire, and
Other Western Wildfires*
August 5, 2021
Holt Hanley Weather
Unfortunately, we have seen a large increase in our fire activity over
the last 48 hours. The Dixie Fire was looking good just a few days ago,
but due to some unfavorable weather conditions we have returned to more
extreme fire behavior. The warm/dry/windy air lead to a number of spot
fires, which were able to jump containment lines, and have continued to
spread ever since. Due to this continued growth, there are a number of
new evacuation warnings in place.
Using the satellite imagery, you can see the other large wildfires going
on in Northern California including the McFarland Fire, the Monument
Fire, the Haypress Fire, the Summer Fire, the River Fire, the Antelope
Fire, and a number of other smaller blazes. These continue to spread
rapidly given the large amount of dry fuels and the steep terrain in the
region.
Throughout this video, we'll dive into all the important updates, as
well as the fire weather forecast to predict how all these wildfires may
change in the coming days.
You can subscribe to stay updated on all major wildfires throughout the
2021 season.
I hope this video was helpful, and thanks for watching.
https://youtu.be/iWy0nPk96d8
[disinformation warfare]
Climate crimes
*Facebook let fossil-fuel industry push climate misinformation, report
finds*
Thinktank InfluenceMap accuses petroleum giants of gaming Facebook to
promote oil and gas as part of climate-crisis solution
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/facebook-fossil-fuel-industry-environment-climate-change
- -
[Influence Map report]
*Climate Change and Digital Advertising - The Oil & Gas Industry's
Digital Advertising Strategy*
An InfluenceMap Report
August 2021
About InfluenceMap
InfluenceMap is an independent think tank that provides data and
analysis on how business and finance are affecting the climate crisis.
We place great importance on evidence-based assessment using reliable
data and rigorous methodologies.
Our work is used extensively by powerful actors in finance, business,
campaigns, policymaking, and the media to drive meaningful change.
InfluenceMap is philanthropically funded and based in London, with
offices in Tokyo and New York.
https://influencemap.org/
- -
[intelligence report]
*How European industry lobbyists are misaligned with science-based
pathways to net-zero emissions*
Analysis of industry association engagement with EU climate policy
suggests a significant disconnect between industry lobbying and
science-based policy pathways towards net-zero emissions, as
articulated by bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Groups representing transport and heavy industry sectors are found
to be particularly negative and are pushing back on key parts of the
European Commission’s “Fit for 55" package – a broad set of policy
reforms to be tabled in July 2021 to bring Europe’s current climate
framework in line with the bloc’s 55% GHG target for 2030. Both the
IPCC's 2018 report on 1.5°C warming and the International Energy
Agency’s 2021 analysis on hitting 1.5°C clearly highlight the
importance of short-term targets and policies to deliver net-zero by
the middle of the century.
These groups are funded by some of Europe’s largest corporations
including Volkswagen Group, LafargeHolcim, TotalEnergies, Repsol,
and ArcelorMittal, all of whom are now touting net-zero targets for
climate, as well as supporting climate science and the UNFCCC
process in the run-up to COP26. This disconnect between top-line
corporate rhetoric and the lobbying actions of industry groups puts
the EU's efforts to align its climate policy agenda with the Paris
Agreement’s goals at risk.
The research includes a survey of 216 industry associations which
shows that, despite almost universal support for raising the bloc’s
long term climate ambitions to net-zero by 2050, a large proportion
of industry disagreed on the need for an accompanying acceleration
in short-term action to implement this goal, subsequently upped from
40% to 55% emission reductions by 2030...
https://influencemap.org/report/Industry-Associations-and-European-Climate-Ambition-fdaeeb57dc404c90aaf2f82bbd729733
[looming]
*Greenpeace warns of ‘dangerous temperatures’ for Tokyo, Beijing*
Study shows hot weather is starting earlier and that more frequent heat
waves are likely.
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2021/8/5/extreme-temperatures-on-the-rise-in-tokyo-beijing-seoul-report
[doc for now]
Documentary films
*‘The very worst things we could imagine’: a terrifying documentary on
US wildfires*
In Bring Your Own Brigade, British film-maker Lucy Walker takes us back
to the California tragedies of 2018 and a crisis that continues to rage on
David Smith in Washington
Video preview -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEUiJVR9syE
https://amp.theguardian.com/film/2021/aug/04/bring-your-own-brigade-documentary-us-wildfires-lucy-walker
[methane must be minimal]
*Reduce methane or face climate catastrophe, scientists warn*
Exclusive: IPCC says gas, produced by farming, shale gas and oil
extraction, playing ever-greater role in overheating planet
Fiona Harvey Environment correspondent
Fri 6 Aug 2021
- -
Leading climate scientists will give their starkest warning yet – that
we are rushing to the brink of climate catastrophe – in a landmark
report on Monday. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will
publish its sixth assessment report, a comprehensive review of the
world’s knowledge of the climate crisis and how human actions are
altering the planet. It will show in detail how close the world is to
irreversible change.
One of the key action points for policymakers is likely to be a warning
that methane is playing an ever greater role in overheating the planet.
The carbon-rich gas, produced from animal farming, shale gas wells and
poorly managed conventional oil and gas extraction, heats the world far
more effectively than carbon dioxide – it has a “warming potential” more
than 80 times that of CO2 – but has a shorter life in the atmosphere,
persisting for about a decade before it degrades into CO2.
Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and
Sustainable Development and a lead reviewer for the IPCC, said methane
reductions were probably the only way of staving off temperature rises
of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, beyond which extreme weather will
increase and “tipping points” could be reached. “Cutting methane is the
biggest opportunity to slow warming between now and 2040,” he said. “We
need to face this emergency.”...
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/06/reduce-methane-or-face-climate-catastrophe-scientists-warn
- -
[Nice picture of a cow]
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/976fc516854f5b2d193639012e68da21fb051cbf/0_156_3500_2101/master/3500.jpg?width=940&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=9e3c1f3ebc7b6b59fd8c00f02bce1429
[The news archive - looking back]
*On this day in the history of global warming August 6 ,*
August 5, 1996: The New York Times profiles climate scientist Ben
Santer, who had just become the target of a lavishly-financed defamation
campaign by the fossil fuel industry.
Believer Finds Himself At Center of Hot Debate
By WILLIAM K. STEVENS
LIVERMORE, CALIF. -- Dr. Benjamin D. Santer, a shy, even-spoken,
41-year-old American climatologist who climbs mountains, runs
marathons and enjoys a reputation for careful and scrupulous
work, is the chief author of what may be the most important
finding of the decade in atmospheric science: that human
activity is probably causing some measure of global climate
change, as environmentalists have long assumed and skeptics have
long denied.
The finding, issued for the first time in December 1995 by a
panel of scientists meeting under United Nations sponsorship in
Madrid, left open the question of just how large the human
impact on climate is. The question is perhaps the hottest and
most urgent in climatology today.
Dr. Santer is in the forefront of a rapidly unfolding effort to
answer it..
Dr. Santer graduated with top honors in 1976 from the University
of East Anglia in Britain with a degree in environmental sciences.
To his dismay, his British education availed him little in the
job market when he returned to his parents' home, then in the
Baltimore area. He bounced around for the next few years,
working at various times as a soccer teacher, a German teacher
for Berlitz and an assembler in a zipper factory, at which
point, he says, he found himself "down and out in Seattle." He
made two stabs at a doctorate at East Anglia, abandoning both.
He soon made a third attempt to earn a doctorate at East Anglia,
which boasts one of the world's top climatology departments, and
this time he succeeded.
Dr. Benjamin D. Santer, author of a crucial chapter of a U.N.
climate report. (Darcy Padilla for The New York Times)
"I found it fascinating," he said, "the idea that humans could
have a potentially large impact on climate." In his
dissertation, Dr. Santer used statistical techniques to
investigate the accuracy with which computerized models of the
climate system simulated regional climates.
He soon moved to another leading climatological laboratory, the
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, where he worked
for the first time on the problem of detecting the signal of
human-caused climate change, especially global warming -- the
"greenhouse fingerprint." He also met his wife, Heike, in
Hamburg, and they now have a 3-year-old son, Nicholas.
Since moving to Livermore in 1992, Dr. Santer has grappled with
the related problems of testing the validity of climate models
and searching for the greenhouse fingerprint. His strategy is to
examine observed patterns of temperature change to see whether
they matched the unique patterns expected to result from the
combination of growing industrial emissions of heat-trapping
gases like carbon dioxide, on one hand, and sulfate aerosols
that cool some parts of the planet, on the other. According to
this reasoning, the pattern produced by the combination of
greenhouse gases and aerosols would be markedly different from
that produced by any natural cause.
Climate models have been widely criticized for, among other
things, failing to adequately represent natural variability. One
critic, Dr. Richard S. Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, says the models are so flawed as to be no more
reliable than a Ouija board.
"I think that's garbage," said Dr. Santer, part of whose job is
to assess how good the models are. "I think models are credible
tools and the only tools we have to define what sort of
greenhouse signal to look for. It's clear that the ability of
models to simulate important features of present-day climate has
improved enormously." He says that if the models are right --
still a big if -- the human imprint on the climate should emerge
more clearly in the next few years. All in all, he says, he
expects "very rapid" progress in the search for the greenhouse
fingerprint.
When might it become clear enough to be widely convincing?
"Even if New York were under six feet of water, there would be
people who would still say, 'Well, this is a natural event,' "
he said.
http://partners.nytimes.com/library/national/120197believe.html
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