[✔️] August 27, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[👀 Richard Pauli]

/*August 27, 2021*/

[opinion in NYTimes]
*How Should the Fed Deal With Climate Change?*
Neil Irwin - -Aug. 26, 2021
The climate crisis is at high risk of becoming an economic crisis.

That is an increasingly widespread view among leading economic thinkers 
— that a range of economic and financial problems could result from a 
warming planet and humanity’s efforts to deal with it. But if you 
believe that to be true, what should the United States’ 
economist-in-chief do about it?

That question has taken new urgency as President Biden weighs whether to 
reappoint Jerome Powell to another term leading the Federal Reserve or 
choose someone else...
- -
Arguably, one of the more important things the Fed can do to help fight 
climate change is to excel at its primary job: maintaining a stable, 
strong economy. Consider some surprising public opinion data...
- -
And Lael Brainard, a Fed governor and potential Biden appointee to 
become the next chair, has emphasized that the unpredictable nature of 
climate change could make obsolete the historical models on which 
economic policy is based.

“Unlike episodic or transitory shocks, climate change is an ongoing, 
cumulative process, which is expected to produce a series of shocks,” 
she said in a March speech. “Over time, these shocks can change the 
statistical time-series properties of economic variables, making 
forecasting based on historical experience more difficult and less 
reliable.”

If Ms. Brainard is correct, it raises a dispiriting possibility: As the 
planet gets hotter, it could make it harder to keep the economy on an 
even keel. But the worse the economy performs, the more toxic and 
dysfunctional climate politics may become.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/26/upshot/fed-climate-change-analysis.html



[Ozone pollution is human-caused, and it is strong]
*Why Colorado’s Record Ozone Pollution Is More About Cars Than Wildfire 
Smoke*
By Sam Brasch - - August 25, 2021
Colorado’s Front Range has seen little relief from ozone and wildfire 
smoke this summer.

The dual pollutants have shrouded the region’s view of the Rocky 
Mountains and stirred a debate about the best way to tell the public 
about the relationship between the problems. In particular, Scott 
Landes, Colorado’s air quality forecaster, has repeatedly noted smoke 
from out-of-state wildfires “enhanced” or “exaggerated” ozone levels in 
the Denver metro.

Frank Flocke, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric 
Research, worries the message is both accurate and misleading. While 
wildfire smoke can add to ozone levels in some cases, he said his 
research shows local air pollution sources, like traffic and oil and gas 
operations, are a much bigger factor...
“Without the wildfire plumes, we would have been capable of making high 
levels of ozone just with our own emissions,” Flocke said.

The relationship between smoke and ozone is a complicated topic that 
Flocke said tests the limits of scientific knowledge. At the same time, 
the answers could shift whether people see ozone pollution as something 
within human control or a brutal reality blowing in from California. In 
communicating with the public, Flocke said officials should focus on 
direct health impacts, not the tricky science behind air pollution.

To clear the air, here’s a breakdown.

***Wildfire smoke is a pollution problem unto itself*
There’s no question the haze from far-off wildfires threatens human 
health. Tiny particles of incinerated wood can burrow themselves deep 
inside people’s lungs.

Studies show the short-term consequences can include lung irritation, 
coughing and sneezing. Eventually, exposure can lead to premature death 
and leave people more vulnerable to respiratory diseases, including 
COVID-19.

Winds have brought a rash of smoke from wildfires in California and the 
Pacific Northwest to Colorado over the summer of 2021. The primary 
pollutant of concern in the smoke is PM 2.5, shorthand for particulates 
smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter.

While it’s plenty dangerous, this air quality problem is different from 
ozone.

The Front Range has seen a record number of high ozone days
Unlike wildfire smoke, ozone is a “secondary pollutant,” meaning it 
forms in the atmosphere through a combination of nitrous oxides and 
volatile organic compounds in a chemical reaction triggered by heat and 
sunlight.

In 2014, Flocke and his NCAR colleague Gabriele Pfister conducted a 
state-commissioned aerial survey to track the ozone sources along the 
Front Range. The research found that the region has background ozone 
levels of about 40 to 50 parts per billion, which is short of the 
current federal health standard of 70 parts per billion.

Local emissions of air pollutants pushed air quality to unsafe levels. 
On days when ozone levels exceeded federal health standards, traffic and 
oil and gas combined are responsible for more than two-thirds of ozone 
production along the Front Range.

Colorado’s ozone landscape has likely changed in the seven years since 
the survey. Energy companies have installed more pipelines, cutting down 
on total emissions from oil and gas production. Over the same period, 
more people have arrived in Colorado and brought their cars with them. 
While the COVID-19 pandemic led to a reduction in Front Range traffic in 
the spring and summer of 2020, Pfister said state data show it has 
rebounded to record levels in Denver.

“There are basically just more cars on the road,” Pfister said.

The return of traffic has coincided with the worst summer for ozone 
pollution along the Front Range in a decade. Since the traditional ozone 
season started on May 31, the state has issued 59 ozone action day 
alerts for the region. The total marks the highest number of warnings 
since air officials started record-keeping in 2011.

The count is also a sanitized way to describe a problem felt in people’s 
chests and throats. In the long term, studies suggest the inflammation 
caused by the pollutant can lead to lower birth weights, asthma 
development and higher rates of premature death.

Smoke can both increase and decrease ozone levels
While local pollution is a major ozone contributor, Emily Fischer, an 
atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University, said smoke from 
distant fires often contains the basic building blocks of ozone. As a 
result, her research suggests wildfires can add to the Front Range’s 
ozone problem.

One recent study examined the potential impact of smoke at an air 
monitor near Boulder Reservoir. Between 2017 and 2019, it identified 41 
days when ozone exceeded federal health standards. Wildfire smoke also 
hit the air monitor on 13 of those days. A comparison showed the 
presence of wildfire smoke tended to coincide with higher levels of ozone.

“We would have an ozone problem here in the Front Range without smoke, 
but when smoke comes to town, it does seem to provide a little bump,” 
Fischer said.

Another 2017 analysis attempted to quantify the degree to which wildfire 
smoke could boost the pollutant. Dan Jaffe, an author and a professor of 
chemistry at the University of Washington, said it showed wildfire smoke 
in major U.S. cities tended to increase ozone levels by about 10 to 20 
percent.

Jaffe said the pattern might occur from smoke reacting with local 
pollution. If more research proves that’s the case, cutting emissions 
from smokestacks and tailpipes could “reduce the amount of ozone we get 
even on smokey days.”

To add another layer of complexity, it also appears smoke can decrease 
the overall presence of ozone in some cases. Scott Landes, the state’s 
air quality forecaster, said one example may have occurred last year 
when the Cameron Peak Fire sent a large plume over Fort Collins and cut 
the amount of sunlight reaching the surface. Without the sun’s energy, 
pollutants couldn’t “bake” into ozone pollution.

Why state air quality forecasters have focused on the problem
Landes has also focused on the role of wildfire smoke in interviews 
about air quality for CPR News and other media outlets, saying plumes 
can “enhance” ozone levels. He defended the language in a detailed email.

Aside from noting scientific studies, Landes wrote Colorado’s state air 
monitors show examples of spikes in ozone levels best explained by smoke 
plumes. One occurred at Chatfield State Park earlier this summer. On 
July 24, a monitor continued to monitor high ozone levels, even when 
winds shifted away from human pollution sources.

In that case and others, Landes said it was important to let the public 
know wildfire smoke could be making a bad pollution problem worse.

“I do not believe that wildfire smoke is the primary cause of our ozone 
exceedances over the past several weeks,” Landes wrote. “However, I do 
believe that, in many instances, ozone was indeed enhanced by wildfire 
smoke.”
https://www.cpr.org/2021/08/25/front-range-air-quality-ozone-wildfire-smoke/



[How Bad?]
*IPCC - How Bad Can It Be*
ClimateEmergency Forum
Dr. Peter Carter presents the major findings of the IPCC’s 6th 
Assessment report and discusses them with Regina Valdez. Peter 
succinctly summarizes it as follows: “The report finds unless there are 
immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, 
limiting warming to close to 1.5°C or even 2°C will be beyond reach.”

This video was recorded on Aug 13th, 2021, and published on August 24th, 
2021.

Topics discussed include the following:
- A presentation of the Working Group I report, which is the first 
instalment of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
- Peter mentions some of the websites he uses to help him keep track of 
Government action on Climate which include ‘Climate Action Tracker’ and 
‘Energy Policy Tracker.’
- Despite the clarity of the information in the reports, governments are 
failing to take proportional action and are actually doing the opposite 
of what’s needed by providing billions of dollars in subsidies to Fossil 
Fuel Corporations.
- How fossil fuel corporations continue in their campaigns to impede 
action on climate change by misinforming the public.
- The fact that climate change will affect food production in every area 
of the globe including the more developed northern nations such as Canada.
- Peter encourages the use of the 6th Assessment one page press release 
and the 2 page headline statement to do the work of informing our 
government by writing to your local government official to demonstrate 
the dire nature of the situation and the need to take serious action.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaNc1Lc8Pag

- -

[Classic -- How Bad could it be? An interactive chart with links to 
videos by Richard Pauli - in 2007]
*How bad can it be? ...and when?*
The chart below has linked hotspots. In the lower right corner of the 
chart notice the temperature line for the current year.   There are 
seven future projections plotted.

The graphic IPCC Chart uses data from special report emissions scenario 
for the IPCC.   Links below in blue are summarized projections for each 
degree change taken from the book "Six Degrees, Our Future on a Hotter 
Planet" - Mark Lynas and videos segments from National Geographics.
For an excellent video introduction to the global warming problem see 
the National Geographic video of Global Warming 101
http://localsteps.org/howbad.html



[Activism: Extinction Rebellion live demonstration in London 
https://youtu.be/eQLlm6sn2fw]
*LIVE: Impossible Rebellion Day 5 - Blood Money March*
Started streaming 90 minutes ago
Extinction Rebellion UK

XR Blood Money March exposes City of London’s ties to slavery, 
colonialism and the climate crisis

Extinction Rebellion activists, in conjunction with XR Unify and United 
for Black Lives, are processing through the City of London this 
afternoon, visiting institutions involved in human and environmental 
exploitation in both past and present.

Starting at the Bank of England, the march will stop for speeches at 
City institutions with deplorable track records of extracting, 
conserving and laundering money at the expense of BIPOC (black, 
indigenous and people of colour) people in the majority world, stoking 
the huge inequalities driving the climate and ecological emergency.

We need to STOP THE HARM and end all fossil fuel investment now. 
However, we must also recognise that the roots of the climate breakdown 
cannot be separated from the ideology behind slavery and racism – that 
humans and the planet are merely resources to be exploited for profit.

WHAT WILL YOU DO? Join us from 23 August for two weeks – come down to 
sit together, eat together, talk, listen, get trained up and rebel for 
life!..
- -
This was live-streamed by the XR Live Streaming team whose mission is to 
#TellTheTruth and spread the news that mainstream media is failing to 
do. Any questions or projects then drop us a line at 
xrlivestreaming at protonmail.com Have any feedback about this livestream? 
Please message us here: https://xrlivestream.tv/feedback

Help XR mobilise and donate: https://extinctionrebellion.uk/donate/

Extinction Rebellion UK: https://extinctionrebellion.uk/
International: https://rebellion.global/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ExtinctionR
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/XRebellionUK/

    *1. Tell The Truth *
    *2. Act Now *
    *3. Beyond Politics*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQLlm6sn2fw



[automotive innovation about electric cars]
*Sandy's Rant: Tesla AI Day + NHTSA & Congress*
Aug 25, 2021
Munro Live
Sandy Munro shares his thoughts on Tesla being investigated by NHTSA & 
Congress.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hcB1Z6-A7Q



[finally, maybe now]
*It’s time to freak out about methane emissions*
This lesser-known greenhouse gas will make or break a “decisive decade” 
for climate change.
By Rebecca Leber-- Aug 12, 2021

 From his home office in Arizona, Riley Duren was multitasking, telling 
me about frighteningly powerful greenhouse gases even as he monitored 
his team’s aircraft. The plane was flying at 20,000 feet to measure 
methane spewing from wells in the Permian Basin of Texas. An aerial map 
on his computer screen brought the measurements to life: Dozens of red 
zones represented otherwise invisible plumes of methane above oil and 
gas fields.

“It’s just like watching a firework show. They’re just popping up all 
over the place,” said Duren, a University of Arizona scientist who leads 
the nonprofit Carbon Mapper, which has public and private partners 
including NASA, the state of California, and the company Planet.

In the public conversation about climate change, methane has gotten too 
little attention for too long. Many people may be unaware that humans 
have been spewing a greenhouse gas that’s even more potent than carbon 
dioxide into the atmosphere at a rate not seen in at least 800,000 
years. It harms air quality and comes from sources as varied as oil and 
gas pipelines to landfills and cows. But methane and other greenhouse 
gases, including hydroflurocarbons, ozone, nitrogen dioxides, and sulfur 
oxides, are finally getting the attention they deserve — thanks largely 
to advances in the science...
- -
The oil and gas industry has argued that it isn’t to blame for methane 
pollution, but advocates and scientists have shown otherwise. 
Environmental Defense Fund, which has commissioned flights to monitor 
methane over Texas oil and gas fields, has found that oil fields in the 
US are leaking 60 percent more methane than the Environmental Protection 
Agency estimates. University of Michigan scientist Eric Kort found 
methane spewing from offshore wells at far higher rates than previously 
understood. The environmental group Earthworks, using expensive, 
on-the-ground camera equipment, helped track down some sites that were 
repeat offenders of venting methane into the atmosphere.

The scientific papers have mounted: Since 2013, at least 45 scientific 
papers have highlighted the disproportionate role of oil and gas 
operations, according to a review by the advocacy group Climate Nexus. 
Scientists like Duren have also produced vivid images of methane that a 
layperson can understand, just like the imagery below from April this year.

According to Duren, Carbon Mapper has detected over 3,000 methane plumes 
in the Permian Basin with its airborne surveys, all coming from a range 
of oil and gas infrastructure, including wells, tank batteries, 
compressor stations, pipelines, and more.

Together, these findings suggest a grim outlook for the minimal progress 
made so far in tackling carbon pollution: Rising methane pollution 
effectively erases some of the progress the US has made by cleaning up 
the coal-fired power sector.

The IPCC report noted that methane has been rapidly climbing since 2007, 
driven by a mix of agriculture (from East and West Asia, Brazil, and 
northern Africa) and fossil fuels, specifically from North America. In 
other words, scientists are confident that humans are the main cause of 
increasing methane pollution.

Still, the data needs to get better. The Trump administration scrapped 
early rules that would’ve required oil companies to monitor and fix 
their own leaks. Few major economies even measure methane. China has 
launched a carbon-trading market to tackle carbon emissions, but has 
done less to control methane, which comes not just from gas but coal as 
well.

Scientists know a lot about CO2 — and much less about other gases
There are other greenhouse gases out there besides CO2 and methane. 
Nitrogen dioxides, black carbon, and halogenated gases (a category that 
includes chemicals used for refrigerants, hydrofluorocarbons) are other 
contributors to climate change.

A graphic from the IPCC’s summary for policymakers makes sense of how 
all these gases interact to add up to at least 1.1 degrees Celsius of 
average global warming since the 1850s. As the below graphic shows, CO2 
and methane make up most of the warming, but other pollutants leave 
their mark too. Some aerosols from fossil fuels, like sulfur dioxide, 
actually have a cooling effect (but are dangerous to our lungs).

Other pollutants besides carbon have a heating effect on the atmosphere. 
IPCC AR6 Summary for Policymakers
There’s good news and bad news when it comes to the second-worst cause 
of global warming.

First the bad: Methane is rising, and there’s plenty we don’t know about 
it. Even if we pinpointed the worst offenders in oil and gas, its other 
sources would still require sweeping societal change, like a reduction 
in the number of cows raised for food. (There’s been some 
experimentation with feed for cattle to reduce methane, or more wackily, 
fart-collecting backpacks for cows).

Food waste, which releases methane as it decomposes, is a problem too. 
Across the world, the richest economies are throwing out half their 
food. Landfills may be able to capture some of the methane, but that too 
is an energy-intensive process.

Even though methane is not nearly as well-understood as carbon, it’s 
playing an enormous role in the climate crisis. Patricia 
Monteiro/Bloomberg via Getty Images
That leaves oil, coal, and gas. Coal is the worst offender; it leaches 
both carbon as well as methane, making it the number one priority to 
phase out. Oil production is a big problem too, in part because 
producers don’t face much regulatory or economic pressure to recapture 
the extra gas. Even when industry is trying to capture and sell natural 
gas, producers lose methane throughout its extraction and 
transportation. It leaks out as producers pipe the gas to compressor 
stations, process it for shipment, ship it hundreds of miles by pipeline 
to a refinery, and transport it to the consumer in the form of liquefied 
natural gas, plastic, petrochemicals, or the gas that lights up ovens in 
homes and apartments.

The whole system is extremely leaky, but the leakiest parts are not 
totally clear. “It’s just been really hard to put our finger on exactly 
the source, and be able to attribute it to the granularity that would 
enable us to solve it,” said Fran Reuland, a researcher on methane in 
the oil and gas industry at the think tank RMI. “Because it’s happening 
over such a large area, wrapping your mind around just how much is 
coming out is one of the main problems.”

Another frustrating challenge is that methane emissions fluctuate. 
Carbon Mapper pieced together a time series of a section of the Permian 
Basin in the southwestern US, in which the dots corresponding with 
methane emissions. About half the time, Duren estimates, some of the 
worst offenders may be venting methane directly into the atmosphere to 
relieve pressure, while the other half probably represent persistent 
leaks and malfunctions.

Environmentalists argue we must transition off coal, gas, and oil as 
quickly as possible — but stopping the pollution can’t wait for the 
transition to play out. A coalition of 134 environmental and health 
groups have rallied around a certain target — cutting 65 percent of the 
oil and gas industry’s methane pollution by 2025 — and have pressured 
the Biden administration to adopt the same goal by using existing 
technology.

The gains from containing methane will be critical as the world 
continues to gamble with its climate. A study from EDF scientists 
published in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Research Letters 
found that tackling methane emissions across multiple sectors, including 
oil and gas, agriculture, and landfills, can slow the current rate of 
runaway warming by a staggering 30 percent. One-quarter of one degree 
Celsius by 2050 might not sound like a lot, but small changes to global 
averages contain a range of extreme impacts that will worsen across the 
globe.

There’s the good news: The world doesn’t need to wait around for better 
science. Action is feasible now.

*Here’s what can be done about methane emissions now*
When the IPCC report came out on August 9, Lisa DeVille, a member of the 
Dakota Resource Council who lives on the Fort Berthold Indian 
Reservation, was encouraged to hear scientists “echoing what most of us 
can see with our own eyes,” based on what she sees on the front lines of 
oil production in North Dakota.

“The land near my home is crisscrossed with oil and gas pipelines, 
literally littered with drilling rigs,” DeVille said in a call with 
reporters. She said her home has been ravaged by unusually high rainfall 
and flooding, and she and her husband have had to breathe in smoke from 
wildfires. “I live less than a mile away from well pads that vent and 
flare methane and choke our atmosphere, making local people like my 
husband and I sick. This means the land that is part of my identity as 
an Indigenous women has been turned into a pollution-filled industrial 
zone.”

Under pressure from climate advocates, the Environmental Protection 
Agency is expected to pass a new set of rules in September. 
Environmentalists have pushed for high targets, and hope these rules 
will require oil and gas companies to both monitor and address methane 
leaks from existing and future wells, using sensors and regular 
equipment checks. The Biden administration has suggested that methane 
regulation offers “near-term solutions” to climate change.

There’s widespread agreement, even from some in the fossil fuel 
industry, that the place to start is tackling leaks. This will get 
easier as scientists gather better data about where methane is leaking. 
 From the industry’s perspective, companies are losing product and 
dollars. For activists, plugging leaks is one step on the road to 
permanently phasing out gas.

The problem that underlies all of climate action is that humanity has to 
trade short-term profit for the long-term costs. Carbon pollution 
affects the world for the long haul, and methane is making the crisis 
significantly worse in the near term.

On the plus side, tackling methane and other dangerous pollutants would 
have an “immediate payoff,” said Global Methane Assessment’s Shindell. 
It could change our dangerous climate trajectory over the next 30 years.

“Every action counts,” said Jane Lubchenco, a senior science adviser to 
the Biden administration, in an interview with Vox. “Every avoided tenth 
of a degree matters.”

Fractions of degrees could translate into wild swings in extreme 
weather, or tipping points we don’t even fully understand. In the effort 
to prevent climate catastrophe, methane will count tremendously.
https://www.vox.com/22613532/climate-change-methane-emissions



[The news archive - looking back]
*On this day in the history of global warming August 27, 1989*

August 27, 1989: The New York Times reports:

    "Top Soviet and American scientists, environmentalists,
    policymakers, industry leaders and artists today urged President
    Bush and President Mikhail S. Gorbachev of the Soviet Union to form
    an 'environmental security alliance' to reverse what they fear could
    be a catastrophic warming of the planet.

    "The gathering urged that the superpowers promote energy-efficient
    technologies and phase out production and use of chlorofluorocarbons
    no later than the year 2000. The group said the countries should
    'substantially reduce' carbon dioxide emissions, reduce the loss of
    forests and promote tree planting worldwide. Participants asked that
    the two leaders appeal directly to their citizens to help.

    "The joint letter avoided specific goals to achieve a compromise
    between the Soviet and American participants and within the American
    contingent, even though some participants had wanted specific
    numerical and time goals on cutting emissions. But it represented
    the most concerted Soviet-American action yet over fears that the
    emission of industrial chemicals into the atmosphere is causing a
    worldwide warming trend, or 'greenhouse effect.'

    "'Soviet and U.S. scientists agreed that continued buildup of
    greenhouse gases at present rates will insure that global
    temperatures rise before the middle of the next century above
    anything in human history,' an accompanying report stated. The
    report said disruptions in agriculture and rising sea levels would
    cause 'massive refugee problems.'"

http://www.nytimes.com/1989/08/27/us/summit-of-sorts-on-global-warming.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm 



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