[✔️] December 2, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
👀 Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Thu Dec 2 10:16:09 EST 2021
/*December 2, 2021*/
[ heating can mean both water and drought ]
*‘So Many Dimensions’: A Drought Study Underlines the Complexity of Climate*
Low rainfall has caused a humanitarian crisis in Madagascar, but common
assumptions about drought didn’t hold up to scrutiny...
- -
Rainfall in the hard-hit south of Madagascar naturally fluctuates quite
a lot, the researchers said, and they did not find that a warming
climate was making prolonged droughts significantly more likely.
Even so, they emphasized the island should still aim to bolster its
ability to cope with dry spells. Scientists convened by the United
Nations have determined that droughts in Madagascar as a whole will
likely increase if global average temperatures rise by more than 2
degrees Celsius — a higher level of warming than the 1.2 degrees that
was considered in the new analysis...
- -
World Weather Attribution has linked other extreme weather events to
human-caused climate change in recent years. The group found that this
summer’s extraordinary heat wave in the Pacific Northwest almost
certainly would not have occurred without it.
For climate scientists, “droughts are a combination of factors that’s
much more difficult to deal with” than, say, heat waves, said Piotr
Wolski of the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape
Town in South Africa.
“We have this predominant narrative these days that droughts are driven
largely by anthropogenic climate change,” said Dr. Wolski, who also
worked on the Madagascar study. “It’s not a bad narrative, because they
are — it’s just not everywhere and not in every single case.”
In Madagascar, livelihoods are easily destabilized by wild swings in
precipitation, said Daniel Osgood, a research scientist at the
International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia
University who was not involved in the study.
Dr. Osgood is working on a project to provide affordable drought
insurance to growers in Madagascar. The goal is to help them become more
resilient to the economic shocks that weather can bring about. “It’s not
how much you eat on average,” he said. “It’s how much you eat every
night that really makes a difference.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/01/climate/climate-change-madagascar-drought.html
/[ Warmer, means wetter, means warmer -- lather, rinse, repeat ]/
Published: 30 November 2021
*New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic
precipitation than previously projected*
Michelle R. McCrystall, Julienne Stroeve, Mark Serreze, Bruce C. Forbes
& James A. Screen
Nature Communications volume 12, Article number: 6765 (2021) Cite this
article
Abstract
As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet,
evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented
environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to
intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased
evaporation from expanding open water areas and more precipitation.
The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) point to more rapid Arctic warming
and sea-ice loss by the year 2100 than in previous projections, and
consequently, larger and faster changes in the hydrological cycle.
Arctic precipitation (rainfall) increases more rapidly in CMIP6 than
in CMIP5 due to greater global warming and poleward moisture
transport, greater Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss and
increased sensitivity of precipitation to Arctic warming. The
transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and
autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of
global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic,
ecosystem and socio-economic impacts.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27031-y
/
/
/[ Young woman starting a YouTube channel about all things global
warming ]
/*Will the largest PR firm in the world drop its fossil fuel clients?*/
/Dec 1, 2021
Beckisphere*
*Edelmen might drop fossil fuel clients after climate comm review
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvJTC4viXvk&t=804s
- -
/[ PR has no direct physical influence on reality. But tremendous
indirect affect on human emotions ] /
Published: 30 November 2021
*The role of public relations firms in climate change politics*
Robert J. Brulle & Carter Werthman
Climatic Change volume 169, Article number: 8 (2021) Cite this article
Abstract
Climate change policy has long been subject to influence by a wide
variety of organizations. Despite their importance, the key role of
public relations (PR) firms has long been overlooked in the climate
political space. This paper provides an exploratory overview of the
extent and nature of involvement of PR firms in climate political
action by organizations in five sectors: Coal/Steel/Rail, Oil & Gas,
Utilities, Renewable Energy, and the Environmental Movement. The
analysis shows that the engagement of public relations firms by
organizations in all of these sectors is widespread. In absolute
terms, the Utility and Gas & Oil sectors engage the most PR firms,
and the Environmental Movement engages the fewest. Organizations in
the Utilities Sector show a statistically significant higher use of
PR firms than the other sectors. Within each sector, engagement of
PR firms is concentrated in a few firms, and the major oil companies
and electrical-supply manufactures are the heaviest employers of
such firms. PR firms generally specialize in representing specific
sectors, and a few larger PR firms are widely engaged in climate and
energy political activity. PR firms developed campaigns that
frequently relied on third-party groups to engage with the public,
criticize opponents, and serve as the face of an advertising
campaign. Our analysis shows that PR firms are a key organizational
actor in climate politics.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03244-4
/[ Click link for details ] /
*Top-10 weirdest things about the bonkers 2021 Atlantic hurricane season*
The season featured an insanely busy start followed by eerily quiet
October, a tropical storm that formed over land, and two landfalls in
Rhode Island, among other oddities.
by JEFF MASTERS
NOVEMBER 30, 2021
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season draws to an official close on
November 30, after generating an extraordinary 21 named storms (third
highest on record), seven hurricanes, four major hurricanes, and an
accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 145. Those numbers compare with the
1991-2020 averages for an entire season of 14.4 named storms, 7.2
hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 123. As documented
by Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at University of Miami’s
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, 2021 marked the
sixth consecutive year with an ACE index above 129: “this has never
happened before, not during the satellite era, not since records begin
in 1851. This sustained level of tropical cyclone activity in the
Atlantic is unprecedented even for four years, let alone six!”
*1. Second consecutive year to run through the entire alphabet*
*2. A record 19 U.S. landfalls in two years*
*3. For the second year in a row, Louisiana suffers a record-strength
hurricane landfall*
*4. In its first forecast for Ida, NHC predicted a near-major hurricane
in 72 hours*
*5. Ida’s rapid intensification*
*6. A hurricane of non-tropical origin threatens New England*
*7. After 30 years with no landfalling named storm, Rhode Island suffers
two landfalls*
*8. Tropical Storm Claudette forms over land*
*9. Hyperactive through late September, then nothing until October 30*
*10. For the first time, a damaging nor’easter transitions to a tropical
storm*
Honorable mention: Hurricane Sam intensified into a category 4 hurricane
at a location unusually far to the southeast,
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/11/top-10-weirdest-things-about-the-bonkers-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season/
/[ matter-of-fact delivery in Scientific American - full text ]/
*Humans Are Doomed to Go Extinct*
Habitat degradation, low genetic variation and declining fertility are
setting Homo sapiens up for collapse
November 30, 2021
AUTHOR Henry Gee
Cast your mind back, if you will, to 1965, when Tom Lehrer recorded his
live album That Was the Year That Was. Lehrer prefaced a song called “So
Long Mom (A Song for World War III)” by saying that “if there's going to
be any songs coming out of World War III, we’d better start writing them
now.” Another preoccupation of the 1960s, apart from nuclear
annihilation, was overpopulation. Stanford University biologist Paul
Ehrlich’s book The Population Bomb was published in 1968, a year when
the rate of world population growth was more than 2 percent—the highest
in recorded history.
Half a century on, the threat of nuclear annihilation has lost its
imminence. As for overpopulation, more than twice as many people live on
the earth now as in 1968, and they do so (in very broad-brush terms) in
greater comfort and affluence than anyone suspected. Although the
population is still increasing, the rate of increase has halved since
1968. Current population predictions vary. But the general consensus is
that it’ll top out sometime midcentury and start to fall sharply. As
soon as 2100, the global population size could be less than it is now.
In most countries—including poorer ones—the birth rate is now well below
the death rate. In some countries, the population will soon be half the
current value. People are now becoming worried about underpopulation.
As a paleontologist, I take the long view. Mammal species tend to come
and go rather rapidly, appearing, flourishing and disappearing in a
million years or so. The fossil record indicates that Homo sapiens has
been around for 315,000 years or so, but for most of that time, the
species was rare—so rare, in fact, that it came close to extinction,
perhaps more than once. Thus were sown the seeds of humanity’s doom: the
current population has grown, very rapidly, from something much smaller.
The result is that, as a species, H. sapiens is extraordinarily samey.
There is more genetic variation in a few troupes of wild chimpanzees
than in the entire human population. Lack of genetic variation is never
good for species survival.
What is more, over the past few decades, the quality of human sperm has
declined massively, possibly leading to lower birth rates, for reasons
nobody is really sure about. Pollution—a by-product of human degradation
of the environment—is one possible factor. Another might be stress,
which, I suggest, could be triggered by living in close proximity to
other people for a long period. For most of human evolution, people rode
light on the land, living in scattered bands. The habit of living in
cities, practically on top of one another (literally so, in an apartment
block) is a very recent habit.
Another reason for the downturn in population growth is economic.
Politicians strive for relentless economic growth, but this is not
sustainable in a world where resources are finite. H. sapiens already
sequesters between 25 and 40 percent of net primary productivity—that
is, the organic matter that plants create out of air, water and
sunshine. As well as being bad news for the millions of other species on
our planet that rely on this matter, such sequestration might be having
deleterious effects on human economic prospects. People nowadays have to
work harder and longer to maintain the standards of living enjoyed by
their parents, if such standards are even obtainable. Indeed, there is
growing evidence that economic productivity has stalled or even declined
globally in the past 20 years. One result could be that people are
putting off having children, perhaps so long that their own fertility
starts to decline.
An additional factor in the shrinking rate of population growth is
something that can only be regarded as entirely welcome and long
overdue: the economic, reproductive and political emancipation of women.
It began hardly more than a century ago but has already doubled the
workforce and improved the educational attainment, longevity and
economic potential of human beings generally. With improved
contraception and better health care, women need not bear as many
children to ensure that at least some survive the perils of early
infancy. But having fewer children, and doing so later, means that
populations are likely to shrink.
The most insidious threat to humankind is something called “extinction
debt.” There comes a time in the progress of any species, even ones that
seem to be thriving, when extinction will be inevitable, no matter what
they might do to avert it. The cause of extinction is usually a delayed
reaction to habitat loss. The species most at risk are those that
dominate particular habitat patches at the expense of others, who tend
to migrate elsewhere, and are therefore spread more thinly. Humans
occupy more or less the whole planet, and with our sequestration of a
large wedge of the productivity of this planetwide habitat patch, we are
dominant within it. H. sapiens might therefore already be a dead species
walking.
The signs are already there for those willing to see them. When the
habitat becomes degraded such that there are fewer resources to go
around; when fertility starts to decline; when the birth rate sinks
below the death rate; and when genetic resources are limited—the only
way is down. The question is “How fast?”
I suspect that the human population is set not just for shrinkage but
collapse—and soon. To paraphrase Lehrer, if we are going to write about
human extinction, we’d better start writing now.
Henry Gee is a paleontologist, evolutionary biologist and editor at
Nature. His latest book is A (Very) Short History of Life on Earth
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/humans-are-doomed-to-go-extinct/
- -
/[ hear the song see him in this YouTube video ]/
*Tom Lehrer - So Long, Mom (A Song for World War III) - with intro -
widescreen*
Jan 19, 2009
The Tom Lehrer Wisdom Channel
57.7K subscribers
Tom Lehrer on public domain (2020):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrbv40ENU_o
/[ 9 minute video - animation - from the New Yorker ] /
*Living in an Age of Extinction*
Released on 11/04/2021
In “Sad Beauty,” directed by Arjan Brentjes, a young artist contracts a
deadly bacterial infection and begins to see hallucinatory messages from
the natural world.
Set in a fictional city, the animated film features a landscape that is
stripped of the organic. The closest thing to nature that remains is its
facsimile captured in steel.
https://www.newyorker.com/video/watch/living-in-an-age-of-extinction
- -
/[ More about this movie ]/
*An Artist’s Imagining of Life After Humanity*
Arjan Brentjes’s film “Sad Beauty” finds an unexpected source of solace
in the age of ecological despair.
Film by Arjan Brentjes
Text by Mengfei Chen
When the Dutch filmmaker Arjan Brentjes was growing up in the
nineteen-seventies, he was taught that, in general, the story of
humanity was one of progress, “going from a worse to better world for
everybody.” Brentjes held onto this belief for much of his life. But, in
recent years, observing the widespread inaction of world leaders in the
face of the climate crisis and the global rise of authoritarianism, he
felt the pull of fatalism. It seemed clear to him that a catastrophe was
under way, and we had likely passed the point of being able to do
anything to avert it. “We could have reached the peak. And now we are
sliding back into something much worse,” he said. With some
understatement, he continued, “I was not a happy camper.”
In 2018, he began working on an animated film, “Sad Beauty,” an
exploration of his ecological anxieties. Set in a fictional city, it
features a landscape that, other than its human inhabitants, is stripped
of the organic: the sky rains ash, and the stark silhouettes of dead
trees stand in contrast to the sinuous lines of Art Nouveau
buildings—the closest thing to nature that remains is its facsimile
captured in steel. The film’s protagonist, a young naturalist, spends
her days drawing extinct insects in the back rooms of a natural-history
museum; she must walk down a corridor lined with the fossilized bones of
dinosaurs and mastodons to get to her workspace. At home, she listens as
a news anchor reads a daily litany of the species of animals that have
gone extinct. As the film progresses, the anchor begins to report on the
emergence of a new drug-resistant microbe and its unstoppable spread.
Brentjes had completed most of the film before the covid-19 pandemic
began. He said that, for a while, he was worried about how it would be
received. He even changed the ending, which originally featured a
skeleton in an astronaut suit floating in space, a reference to Stanley
Kubrick’s “2001: A Space Odyssey” and to Brentjes’s distaste for space
colonization—“totally stupid because we are part of life on
Earth”—because he was afraid it would be interpreted as insensitive
commentary in the face of the ongoing pandemic’s death toll. To date,
such reactions have not materialized. Many people have viewed the film
as an environmental warning.
But it was not his main intent to sound an alarm about climate collapse.
People interested in the film, he pointed out, are likely already
concerned with the environment, and don’t need anyone to tell them about
the dangers of climate change. Instead, Brentjes hopes that “Sad Beauty”
provides viewers with an “extreme form of consolation.” Around the time
he came up with the seeds of what would eventually become the film,
Brentjes had been watching documentaries about nature, deep time, and
the history of the cosmos. As he watched them, he found an unexpected
source of solace—bacteria. “I discovered that bacteria were around for,
like, three billion years. And they were, in a way, the basis of life.
At some point, [humans] are there, but we are also just carrying the
original life of the world around with us, which are the bacteria,” he
told me. (A study from the National Institutes of Health estimates that
the ratio of bacterial to human cells in the typical person is about one
to one.) “And then I thought, Well, it’s actually quite beautiful.”
Brentjes’s musings echo those of the biologist E. O. Wilson, whose work
has shaped our understanding of biodiversity on Earth. Wilson, too, has
contemplated the horror of extinction: “Deeper than despair, more
terrifying than death, is the thought that everything in time will
disappear, that all we have been and will become will leave no trace
whatsoever,” he writes. But he also believes that it is possible for
humans to envision “a different kind of immortality,” beyond the
thriving of our own species. That possibility, Wilson writes, “resides
in those remnants of the natural world we have not yet destroyed. The
rest of life is a parallel world. It could exist and continue evolving
for what to the human mind is an eternity.” This is the “extreme form of
consolation” that Brentjes hopes to offer through his film. He told me,
“We have to try to make the best of it on Earth, but if we don’t succeed
there is still beauty. There will be beauty in one million years on this
planet.”
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/screening-room/an-artists-imagining-of-life-after-humanity
/
/
[The news archive - looking back]
*On this day in the history of global warming December 2, 1970*
December 2, 1970: The United States Environmental Protection Agency is
established.
http://www2.epa.gov/aboutepa/epa-history
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