[✔️] December 4, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
👀 Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Sat Dec 4 09:31:13 EST 2021
/*December 4, 2021*/
/[ just a measurement of change ]/
*The ins and outs of understanding what’s in a degree*
A degree more here and a degree more there, and pretty soon you have
some serious increased warming.
by SUEELLEN CAMPBELL
DECEMBER 2, 2021
Those paying attention to international climate negotiations are
familiar with the emphasis on degrees of global warming.
The hoped-for or “aspirational” goal is to keep the average temperature
rise above pre-industrial times to 1.5º C; the “official” goal is for no
more than 2º C; 3º C is not out of the question; and 4º C or 5º C or 6º
C are plain terrifying.
What do these numbers mean in practical terms? (Keep in mind that each
degree Celsius is 1.8 degrees F.)
If you have time for just one quick piece, this is a good overview from
Lauren Sommer at NPR. It includes an especially understandable chart
about extreme heat waves.
/https://www.npr.org/2021/11/08/1052198840/1-5-degrees-warming-climate-change?/
Given the latest pledges and analyses (as of the November 2021 COP26
meetings in Glasgow), where are we most likely to end up? It’s a
complicated picture made much more understandable by an excellent and
thorough account from Carbon Brief.
/https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two-degrees/?/
Carbon Brief also has a useful interactive site about the impacts of
1.5, 2, and more than 2º, though everything over 2 is combined into one
relatively sparse column.
For a few informative maps, look at the 2021 IPCC report’s Summary for
Policy Makers. The section on future warming, which starts at page 15,
boils down to these two sentences:
-- “Many changes in the climate system become larger in direct relation
to increasing global warming”; and
-- “Projected changes in extremes are larger in frequency and intensity
with every additional increment of global warming.”
NASA explains some of the reasons it’s hard to offer a simple story
matching temperatures with impacts here.
/https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2458/why-a-half-degree-temperature-rise-is-a-big-deal/
/ The opening graphic (from Climate Central) is an enlightening bell
curve of heating shifting to the hotter side.
/https://medialibrary.climatecentral.org/extreme-weather-toolkits/extreme-heat/
With help from a special report published by IPCC in 2018, “Global
Warming of 1.5º C,” it is easy to find information about the differences
between 1.5 and 2º. Two especially good explanations are from NASA and
from science writer Bruce Lieberman at Yale Climate Connections. The
latter includes links to additional resources.
/https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter///https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-will-happen-to-our-cities-and-beaches-at-3-degrees-of-warming-20210331-p57fhj.html
/
And what if the world warms by more than 2º C, as much as 3º? There’s as
yet very little information about the span between these levels. But
below are a couple of excellent accounts of what a 3º rise will mean.
/https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-will-happen-to-our-cities-and-beaches-at-3-degrees-of-warming-20210331-p57fhj.html
https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/science-policy-and-analysis/reports-and-publications/risks-australia-three-degrees-c-warmer-world/
Sherryn Groch and Nick O’Malley of the Sidney Morning Herald offer a
vivid description of changes to expect in Australia, based on a report
from the Australian Academy of Science.
And The Economist (where climate coverage has become quite strong)
provides an excellent and very thorough briefing, “Three degrees of
global warming is quite plausible and truly disastrous.” It’s not a
light read, but it’s very informative, well worth the time and the small
effort it takes to sign up for several free reads per month. You can
watch the 16-minute video that accompanies this story on YouTube without
having to sign in.
Finally, for a readable, book-length exploration of likely impacts from
warming at every degree level up to six, read Mark Lynas’ 2020 Our Final
Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency (an update of his 2007 book).
Here is a review by physicist and historian Spencer Weart in Yale
Climate Connections.
/https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/mark-lynas-final-warning-on-climate-its-all-on-us-here-now//
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/12/the-ins-and-outs-of-understanding-whats-in-a-degree/
/[ well-known, existing disease of the desert ] /
*Another Climate Change Threat: Valley Fever*
As California Heats Up, Infection May Spread
TESS TOWNSEND - DEC 2, 2021
Cough, fatigue, shortness of breath—is it COVID-19? The flu? In certain
hotter, drier regions like California’s Central Valley (which includes
Fresno and Bakersfield) and Arizona, it might be valley fever, an
infection caused by the Coccidioides fungus.
The illness has gained greater attention as health authorities record a
growing number of cases. More than 18,000 diagnoses were recorded in the
United States in 2019, compared with about 2,800 in 2000, with
fluctuation over the years, according to the Centers for Disease Control
and Prevention (CDC). Valley fever is still a serious health risk: About
1 in 10 patients experiences long-term or severe effects, typically in
their lungs. In relatively rare cases, the disease can be fatal, killing
200 people per year on average, according to the CDC.
“Your individual daily risk is very low, you know—almost zero...
- -
The Coccidioides fungus grows in the dirt when it’s moist, then becomes
airborne with dust when conditions dry out. Its presence is “patchy,”
says Thompson—one section of dirt might contain it, while another just
five feet away doesn’t. So just because you’re in an endemic region
doesn’t mean the dirt surrounding you is full of Coccidioides...
- -
A vaccine against valley fever may even be on the horizon, he says. One
is already in development for dogs.
Until then, the best defense is awareness. People who spend time in
affected regions should be aware of valley fever in case they develop
symptoms, and health professionals should be aware of the growing
footprint of the Coccidioides fungus.
“I think the best way for folks to think about it is to be an advocate
for their own health,” Gorris says.
While Gorris was referring to self-advocacy in a medical setting, you
could also take her meaning more broadly. Valley fever, air pollution,
and even allergy season are all made worse by climate change. You can
advocate for your own health, as well as that of your community and
future generations, by advocating for abandoning fossil fuels to cap
global warming.
https://www.altaonline.com/dispatches/a38413880/another-climate-change-threat-valley-fever/
/[ Gail Tverberg is an bonafide acutarial ] /
*Is it possible that the world is approaching end times?*
by Gail Tverberg
I frequently write that the world economy is, in physics terms, a
dissipative structure that is powered by energy. It can grow for a time,
but eventually it reaches limits of many kinds. Ultimately, it can be
expected to stop growing and collapse.
It seems to me that the world economy is showing signs that it has
reached a turning point. Economic growth stopped in 2020 and is having
trouble restarting in 2021. Fossil fuel energy of all types (oil, coal
and natural gas) is in short supply, relative to the world's huge
population. Ultimately, this inadequate energy supply can be expected to
pull the world economy toward collapse.
The world economy doesn't behave the way most people would expect.
Standard modeling approaches miss the point that economies require
adequate supplies of energy products of the right kinds, provided at the
right times of day and year, if they are to keep from collapsing.
Shortages are not necessarily marked by high prices; prices that are too
low for producers will bring down the energy supply quickly. A collapse
may occur due to inadequate demand; in fact, such a scenario is
described in Revelation 18.
As strange as it may seem, we may be approaching what some of us would
think of as end times, if our economy collapses for lack of
cheap-to-produce energy supplies. In this post, I will try to explain
what is happening...
- -
*[1] In some ways, the self-organizing economy is like a child's
building toy that, with the use of human energy, can be built up to
higher and higher levels...*
*[2] Another way of thinking about the world economy is that it is
somewhat like a rocket that needs fuel. It also has waste outputs. Both
of these limit the growth of the world economy...*
*[3] Strangely enough, the major energy limit that the world economy is
hitting seems to be "energy prices that do not rise high enough for
producers." ...*
If energy supply is inadequate, businesses often find it
advantageous to substitute computers or other machines for some work
previously done by low paid workers. While these machines use a
little energy in their operation, they do not need food, housing or
transportation the way human workers do. With fewer actual workers,
demand for finished goods and services tends to fall, pushing
commodity prices, including those for fossil fuels, down. This
further adds to the low-price problem.
It is the lack of jobs that pay well that tends to hold down
commodity prices below the prices producers require. Ultimately, it
is the lack of sufficient jobs that pay well that tends to bring the
whole economy down. Most researchers have missed this important point.
*[4] In the period leading up to collapse, wages fail to rise with the
cost of required services. This leads to increasingly unhappy workers.
Healthcare costs and college costs are especially problematic, because
their costs have been rising faster than costs in general...*
*[5] An increase in debt can temporarily be used to hide both inadequate
inexpensive-to-produce energy supply and inadequate wages of workers,
but we seem to be reaching limits using this approach to hide energy
problems...*
*[6] Nothing happens for a single reason in a self-organizing economy.
Lack of energy affects every part of the economy, from jobs to finished
output, almost simultaneously...*
*[7] Citizens cannot imagine a declining and eventually collapsing
economy. Businesses, governments and individual citizens all demand
"happily ever after futures."...*
*[8] It is easy to create models that predict growth will continue
forever, even if the physics of the situation says this is not possible...*
*[9] As 2020 began, many sectors of the world economy were squeezed
simultaneously. With limited energy resources, large parts of the
economy needed to be cut back. The self-organizing economy acted in a
very strange way. Shutdowns supposedly aimed at stopping COVID-19 from
spreading acted very much like energy rationing, without mentioning the
world's energy problem...*
*[10] The world economy is increasingly acting like economies that have
collapsed in the past. In fact, there seems to be a connection with some
of the strange statements from the book of Revelation...*
- -The merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her because
no one buys their cargoes anymore— 12 cargoes of gold, silver,
precious stones and pearls; fine linen, purple, silk and scarlet
cloth; every sort of citron wood, and articles of every kind made of
ivory, costly wood, bronze, iron and marble;13 cargoes of cinnamon
and spice, of incense, myrrh and frankincense, of wine and olive
oil, of fine flour and wheat; cattle and sheep; horses and
carriages; and human beings sold as slaves.
The need for vaccine passports in some countries reminds a person of
Revelation 13:17, "they could not buy or sell unless they had the mark,
which is the name of the beast or the number of its name." In fact,
people in Sweden are getting microchip implants after its latest COVID
passport mandate.
Some people believe that Revelation 12 describes the Antichrist; that
is, the polar opposite of Christ. Before the world comes to an end,
Revelation 12 seems to predict a great fight against this Antichrist,
which Christ wins. I could imagine Anthony Fauci being the Antichrist.
We are not used to living in a world where very little that is published
by the Mainstream Media makes sense. But when we live in a time where no
one wants to hear what is true, the system changes in a bizarre way, so
that a great deal that is published is false.
It is disturbing to think that we may be living near the end of the
world economy, but there is an upside to this situation. We have had the
opportunity to live at a time with more conveniences than any other
civilization. We can appreciate the many conveniences we have.
We also have the opportunity to decide how we want to live the rest of
our lives. We have been led for many years down the path of believing
that economic growth will last forever; all we need to do is have faith
in the government and our educational institutions. If we figure out
that this really isn't the path to follow, we can change course now. If
we want to choose a more spiritual approach, this is a choice we can
still make.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/12/03/is-it-possible-that-the-world-is-approaching-end-times/
/[ What is so great about YouTube - above other social media -]/
*YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki on tech regulation and transparency*
Susan Wojcicki: "We are working to be more transparent, and we are
working to continue to give more visibility."
*Wojcicki: *I think on transparency, we are working to be more
transparent, and we are working to continue to give more visibility.
I would say that for regulators, actually seeing the algorithm
itself, of course, would be a very complex area, and I don’t think
would achieve what most regulators want. What would be most helpful
is to talk about what are the end metrics that they would like us to
optimize for. YouTube, for example, we just came out with a metric
called Violative View Rate, which is the number of views that are on
our platform that are violative of the policies that we’ve said that
we have. And we believe that that’s actually a really comprehensive
way to understand: Are we meeting our own goals in terms of removing
content that is violative of our policies? So basically, we share
that, we update that regularly. And right now, it’s about 19 or 20
views in every 10,000 that would be violative of our policies. And
so we’re going to continue to work to make sure that we pull down
that content, but that’s a way that we are working to be more
transparent.
https://www.marketplace.org/2021/12/01/the-source-code-susan-wojcicki//
/
//
/[ Check this from the recent past ]/
*These 11 Climate Science Deniers are Attending the COP26 Climate Summit*
CFACT and the Heartland Institute are hosting an alternative side event
— but “these days, almost no-one cares,” says one climate expert.
By Rich Collett-Whiteon - Nov 3, 2021
GLASGOW, SCOTLAND — A total 11 climate science deniers have secured
passes to the UN COP26 climate summit taking place in Glasgow, Scotland,
including Myron Ebell, the head of former US President Donald Trump’s
transition team at the Environmental Protection Agency.
The president of the notorious Heartland Institute, which recently held
a rival conference in Las Vegas ahead of the COP26 conference, and the
head of policy at the UK’s principal climate science denial group are
also among those who were given badges.
The delegates have access to the official “Blue Zone” area of the
conference, where negotiations — which are restricted to government
delegations — and a variety of side-events are being held.
Many of them are also speaking at an alternative two-day “Climate
Reality Forum”, live-streamed from an undisclosed location in the city.
The news has been met with anger from environmental groups who point to
the difficulty representatives of Indigenous communities and low-income
countries vulnerable to climate change have had in gaining access to the
summit...
- -
“The fact that climate deniers are allowed space at COP, while
Indigenous peoples are fighting to get inside speaks to the performative
functions of the COP,” said Jennifer K. Falcon from the Indigenous
Environmental Network.
“The world is on fire, sea levels are rising, food and water shortages
are already hitting Black, Indigenous and frontline communities of the
global majority,” she added, “and climate deniers are given direct
access to world leaders to continue the status quo of killing our planet.”
Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity,
said: “Granting access to climate deniers adds insult to injury when
countless climate-vulnerable people have been refused entry in the
politics of vaccine apartheid.”
The climate denial delegates are listed as attending COP26 on behalf of
the US-based Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) and the
Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI), both of which have a long
history of rejecting mainstream climate science and have previously
taken funding from oil giant ExxonMobil.
CFACT has called carbon dioxide a “harmless trace essential gas in the
atmosphere that humans exhale from their mouth”, while CEI claims that
climate models “inflate greenhouse gas emissions scenarios” and boasts
about defeating efforts to introduce climate legislation in the US on
its website.
Myron Ebell, CEI’s director of energy and environment was selected by
Trump in 2016 to lead the former US president’s transition team at the
EPA, which the CEI says should not be allowed to regulate greenhouse gas
emissions.
CEI’s delegation includes the president of the Heartland Institute,
James Taylor, and a correspondent for the conservative National Review
magazine, Kevin Williamson, who has been working on a CEI project
“examining the modern environmental movement, its culture, and advocacy”.
Also in attendance is CFACT’s communications director, Marc Morano, who
is no stranger to controversy at UN climate summits, having been ejected
from the 2016 talks in Marrakech for taking part in an unauthorised
demonstration during which he ripped up a copy of the Paris Agreement.
Morano is a former aide to US Republican senator James Inhofe, who
describes human-caused climate change as a “hoax”. And last week, Morano
was interviewed on UK radio station talkRADIO claiming global elites are
planning Covid-style “lockdowns” to tackle emissions.
The accreditations for the two organisations, however, are apparently
overlapped, with two CFACT representatives — including potential
relatives of Morano, Elena and Jessica — attending under CEI badges,
while Travis Buck, CEI’s vice president of communications, is listed
under CFACT.
CFACT’s delegation also includes Harry Wilkinson, head of policy at Net
Zero Watch, the new name for the Global Warming Policy Forum, the
campaign wing of the UK climate science denial charity established by
former Tory chancellor Nigel Lawson.
Other CFACT delegates include its executive director Craig Rucker and
senior fellow Peter Murphy.
CFACT and the Heartland Institute have been running an alternative
conference in Glasgow, alongside Dutch and German climate science denial
groups, CLINTEL and EIKE, the latter of which reportedly works with the
far-right Alternative for Germany party.
Speakers at this event include British hereditary peer Christopher
Monckton, a longtime climate denier, and the German “anti-Greta” Naomi
Seibt, who spoke on Wednesday about the “Evil Motives of Climate
Socialism”.
No details were given on how to attend the event in person, but a
live-stream was provided.
Responding to the news, Richard Black, an honorary research fellow at
Imperial College London and author of a book on climate “contrarianism”
in the UK, said: “It’s not unusual to see contrarians turning up at UN
climate summits, in fact it’s pretty routine. But what is noticeable is
how these days, almost no-one cares.”
Black, a former BBC environment correspondent and veteran COP attendee,
said side events organised by groups like CEI would previously have
drawn in journalists and generated headlines.
“Now, it really is a side-show — an irrelevance,” he said, “given that
pretty much everyone else is talking about how to tackle climate change
and the benefits of doing so, rather than whether to.”
Rucker told DeSmog: “The participation of organizations such as CFACT
which bring perspective grounded in individual and economic freedom and
national sovereignty to the UN climate process is today more relevant
than ever.”
“We refer you to the fundamental principles underlying the UNFCCC [the
UN body in charge of climate summits] and the UN as a whole which
guarantee the right of free expression and participation,” he added.
CEI, the UK COP26 Unit and the UNFCCC have been contacted for comment.
https://www.desmog.com/2021/11/03/heartland-cfact-cei-gwpf-climate-science-deniers-are-attending-the-cop26-climate-summit/
/[The news archive - looking back]/
*On this day in the history of global warming December 4, 2012*
December 4, 2012:
Climate scientists Michael Mann, James Hansen and Katharine Hayhoe
discuss the risks of a warming planet at the Commonwealth Club in San
Francisco, California.
http://c-spanvideo.org/program/GlobalClimateChange50
http://c-spanvideo.org/program/JamesHa
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
/Archive of Daily Global Warming News
<https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html>
/
https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote
/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request>
to news digest./
Privacy and Security:*This mailing is text-only. It does not carry
images or attachments which may originate from remote servers. A
text-only message can provide greater privacy to the receiver and
sender. This is a hobby production curated by Richard Pauli
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain cannot be used for commercial
purposes. Messages have no tracking software.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote
<mailto:contact at theclimate.vote> with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe,
subject: unsubscribe
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for
http://TheClimate.Vote <http://TheClimate.Vote/> delivering succinct
information for citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously restricted to
this mailing list.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/attachments/20211204/4baf5ec8/attachment.htm>
More information about the TheClimate.Vote
mailing list