[TheClimate.Vote] February 10, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Wed Feb 10 10:02:50 EST 2021

/*February 10, 2021*/

[20 earlier, 8 longer]
*Climate change has ‘worsened’ North America’s pollen season*
Ayesha Tandon, Carbon Brief
The North American pollen season is now starting 20 days earlier and 
lasting eight days longer than it did in 1980, according to a new study. 
Climate change is responsible for roughly half of these changes, the 
authors tell Carbon Brief.

The pollen season in North America is starting earlier and lasting 
longer than it did four decades ago, a new study says.

The research, published in the journal Proceedings of the National 
Academy of Sciences (PNAS), concludes that the North American pollen 
season is now starting 20 days earlier and lasting eight days longer 
than in 1990. Climate change is responsible for roughly half of these 
changes, the study says.

The study also finds that climate change is a “significant contributor” 
to a 21% increase in pollen levels since 1990. The authors note that the 
increase in tree pollen levels is bigger than the increase in either 
grass or weed pollen.

“Climate change is already worsening pollen seasons,” the lead author of 
the study tells Carbon Brief, adding that this is “bad news for people 
with respiratory health problems”.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-has-worsened-north-americas-pollen-season

- -

[source material]
*Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons*
PNAS February 16, 2021 118 (7) e2013284118; 
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013284118
Edited by Jonathan Alan Patz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, and 
accepted by Editorial Board Member Hans J. Schellnhuber December 18, 2020

*Significance*
Human-caused climate change could impact respiratory health, including 
asthma and allergies, through temperature-driven increases in airborne 
pollen, but the long-term continental pollen trends and role of climate 
change in pollen patterns are not well-understood. We measure pollen 
trends across North America from 1990 to 2018 and find increases in 
pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons. We use an ensemble of 
climate models to test the role of climate change and find that it is 
the dominant driver of changes in pollen season length and a significant 
contributor to increasing pollen concentrations. Our results indicate 
that human-caused climate change has already worsened North American 
pollen seasons, and climate-driven pollen trends are likely to further 
exacerbate respiratory health impacts in coming decades.
*
**Abstract*
Airborne pollen has major respiratory health impacts and anthropogenic 
climate change may increase pollen concentrations and extend pollen 
seasons. While greenhouse and field studies indicate that pollen 
concentrations are correlated with temperature, a formal detection and 
attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in continental 
pollen seasons is urgently needed. Here, we use long-term pollen data 
from 60 North American stations from 1990 to 2018, spanning 821 
site-years of data, and Earth system model simulations to quantify the 
role of human-caused climate change in continental patterns in pollen 
concentrations. We find widespread advances and lengthening of pollen 
seasons (+20 d) and increases in pollen concentrations (+21%) across 
North America, which are strongly coupled to observed warming. Human 
forcing of the climate system contributed ∼50% (interquartile range: 
19–84%) of the trend in pollen seasons and ∼8% (4–14%) of the trend in 
pollen concentrations. Our results reveal that anthropogenic climate 
change has already exacerbated pollen seasons in the past three decades 
with attendant deleterious effects on respiratory health.
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/7/e2013284118

[from Harvard scientists]
*Deaths from fossil fuel emissions higher than previously thought*
Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for more than 8 million people 
worldwide in 2018
By Leah Burrows | Press contact
February 9, 2021

More than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution, 
significantly higher than previous research suggested, according to new 
research from Harvard University, in collaboration with the University 
of Birmingham, the University of Leicester and University College 
London. Researchers estimated that exposure to particulate matter from 
fossil fuel emissions accounted for 18 percent of total global deaths in 
2018  — a little less than 1 out of 5.

Regions with the highest concentrations of fossil fuel-related air 
pollution — including Eastern North America, Europe, and South-East Asia 
— have the highest rates of mortality, according to the study published 
in the journal Environmental Research.

The study greatly increases estimates of the numbers killed by air 
pollution. The most recent Global Burden of Disease Study, the largest 
and most comprehensive study on the causes of global mortality, put the 
total number of global deaths from all outdoor airborne particulate 
matter — including dust and smoke from wildfires and agricultural burns 
— at 4.2 million.

The findings underscore the detrimental impact of fossil fuels on global 
health.

How did the researchers arrive at such a high number of 
fossil-fuel-caused deaths?
https://www.seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought

- -

[Source materials]
*Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by 
fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem*
Highlights

    Fossil fuel combustion emits particulate matter (PM2.5) harmful to
    public health.

    We use a re-evaluated concentration-response function (CRF).

    We estimate 10.2 million global excess deaths in 2012 due to PM2.5
    from this source.

    62% of deaths are in China (3.9 million) and India (2.5 million).

    Our estimate is more than double the GBD reports, due to the updated
    CRF we use.

*Abstract*
The burning of fossil fuels – especially coal, petrol, and diesel – is a 
major source of airborne fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and a key 
contributor to the global burden of mortality and disease. Previous risk 
assessments have examined the health response to total PM2.5, not just 
PM2.5 from fossil fuel combustion, and have used a 
concentration-response function with limited support from the literature 
and data at both high and low concentrations. This assessment examines 
mortality associated with PM2.5 from only fossil fuel combustion, making 
use of a recent meta-analysis of newer studies with a wider range of 
exposure. We also estimated mortality due to lower respiratory 
infections (LRI) among children under the age of five in the Americas 
and Europe, regions for which we have reliable data on the relative risk 
of this health outcome from PM2.5 exposure. We used the chemical 
transport model GEOS-Chem to estimate global exposure levels to 
fossil-fuel related PM2.5 in 2012. Relative risks of mortality were 
modeled using functions that link long-term exposure to PM2.5 and 
mortality, incorporating nonlinearity in the concentration response. We 
estimate a global total of 10.2 (95% CI: -47.1 to 17.0) million 
premature deaths annually attributable to the fossil-fuel component of 
PM2.5. The greatest mortality impact is estimated over regions with 
substantial fossil fuel related PM2.5, notably China (3.9 million), 
India (2.5 million) and parts of eastern US, Europe and Southeast Asia. 
The estimate for China predates substantial decline in fossil fuel 
emissions and decreases to 2.4 million premature deaths due to 43.7% 
reduction in fossil fuel PM2.5 from 2012 to 2018 bringing the global 
total to 8.7 (95% CI: -1.8 to 14.0) million premature deaths. We also 
estimated excess annual deaths due to LRI in children (0-4 years old) of 
876 in North America, 747 in South America, and 605 in Europe. This 
study demonstrates that the fossil fuel component of PM2.5 contributes a 
large mortality burden. The steeper concentration-response function 
slope at lower concentrations leads to larger estimates than previously 
found in Europe and North America, and the slower drop-off in slope at 
higher concentrations results in larger estimates in Asia. Fossil fuel 
combustion can be more readily controlled than other sources and 
precursors of PM2.5 such as dust or wildfire smoke, so this is a clear 
message to policymakers and stakeholders to further incentivize a shift 
to clean sources of energy.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935121000487

[to ignore imperils]
*Before Himalayan Flood, India Ignored Warnings of Development Risks*
Long before a deadly flood hit two hydroelectric dams, scientists warned 
repeatedly that such projects were dangerous in a fragile region made 
more so by global warming.

By Mujib Mashal and Hari Kumar
Feb. 9, 2021
NEW DELHI — Long before the floods came, washing away hundreds of people 
and wiping out newly constructed dams and bridges, the warning signs 
were clear.

The Himalayas have been warming at an alarming rate for years, melting 
ice long trapped in glaciers, soil and rocks, elevating the risk of 
devastating floods and landslides, scientists warned. Nearby populations 
were vulnerable, they said, and the region’s ecosystem had become too 
fragile for large development projects.

But the Indian government overrode the objections of experts and the 
protests of local residents to blast rocks and build hydroelectric power 
projects in volatile areas like the one in the northern state of 
Uttarakhand, where disaster struck.

Officials said Monday that bodies of 26 victims had been recovered while 
the search proceeded for nearly 200 missing people. On Sunday a surge of 
water and debris went roaring down the steep mountain valleys of the 
Rishiganga river, erasing everything in its path. Most of the victims 
were workers on the power project...

Villagers said the authorities overseeing the expensive development 
projects had not prepared them for what was to come, giving a false 
sense of confidence that nothing was going to happen.

“There was no program or training in the village about disaster 
management by the government,” said Bhawan Singh Rana, head of the Raini 
village, hit by some of the worst damage. “Our village is on a rock, and 
we fear that it may slide anytime.”

Security forces focused on one tunnel where they said 30 people were 
trapped. Food was airdropped to about 13 villages where the roads have 
been cut off, with roughly 2,500 people trapped...
- -
The area was the site of a well-known environmental protest against 
deforestation in the 1970s. Protesters, a large number of them women, 
would hug trees to stop loggers from cutting them, in a movement that 
became known as “chipko,” or embrace.

Mr. Rana said local residents also held protests against construction of 
the Rishiganga power project, which began generating electricity last 
year, and they even filed court cases, but to no avail. They feared that 
the blasting of rocks would cause deadly landslides.

“We used to hear blasting and see the rocks shift,” he said. “When this 
project was under construction, half of our village slid. We requested 
to be shifted from here to another place. The government said they would 
do it, but it never happened.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/world/asia/india-flood-ignored-warnings.html

[wise opinions]
*Joe Biden should declare a climate emergency*
A new bill introduced by Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez & Earl 
Blumenauer would require the president to invoke emergency powers to 
tackle the climate crisis.
Eric Holthaus - Feb 7
https://thephoenix.substack.com/p/joe-biden-should-declare-a-climate

*Humor?*
https://twitter.com/dinoman_j/status/1358049815909785600
more at https://twitter.com/dinoman_j

[“Political reality must be grounded in physical reality or it’s 
completely useless.”  - Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber]
*RESET.21 | MATTERS OF FACTS: THE SCIENCE OF GETTING IT RIGHT ON CLIMATE*
Feb 3, 2021
National Climate Emergency Summit
How much do the scientific facts really matter in addressing the climate 
emergency?

Do we already know enough to set the right goals and timeframes for 
action, and is the climate advocacy movement on the right track to 
achieve climate justice and global protection?

Resistance to closer analysis of the climate reality can lead to a 
dangerous underestimation of the problem and jeopardise the formation of 
sound strategies. Deep-seated fears about the extent of the crisis, and 
concerns about complex solutions, can fuel serious doubts about our 
ability to respond in time. Yet, to succeed we need to reexamine the 
facts with fresh rigor and unrestrained honesty to form action at a 
level that will give us our best chance of local and global protection.

Join some of the world’s leading climate scientists and expert analysts 
for a deep dive into the depths of major impacts, risks, and actions 
that will shape climate advocacy in the decade ahead.

    Sir David King – Former Chief Scientific Adviser for the United Kingdom
    David Spratt – Research Director at Breakthrough National Centre For
    Climate Restoration
    Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick – Climate Scientist, UNSW Sydney
    Moderated by Jo Chandler – Science Writer & Journalist

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7V8pTQnCp40&feature=youtu.be

[We are what we eat]
*Why Food is Key! - Episode 19: Vegan World 2026! - The Moonshot of Our 
Generation*
Feb 9, 2021
Sailesh Rao
In this episode, we are joined by Hemal Randerwala of GoDharmic, Sarah 
Sehgal, Jamen Shively and others from Food Healers, who are all working 
on providing healthy, immune-boosting Vegan food to those in need around 
the world. Engineering a transformation in our food system is key to 
solving many of our ecological and social challenges and our guests are 
converging from around the world to make this happen on the ground.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyKoKgwE-8w

[video discussion]
*Timothea Goddard on Mindfulness Meets Collapse - Living in the Time of 
Dying Interview Series*
Jan 30, 2021
Living in the Time of Dying
Mindfulness is way more than just a way to "relax" or "feel better". 
Timothea Goddard shares with us her journey into her deep recognition of 
climate breakdown and societal collapse and talks us through some ways 
to meet the raw edge of this and our human experience across the board.

Timothea Goddard heads an Australia wide Mindfulness Based Stress 
Reduction organisation called Open Ground as well as being a therapist 
for over 30 years. She was featured on ABC Catalyst in 2019.

Visit our website for more information:
https://www.livinginthetimeofdying.com

[More Great White Sharks in California coast]
*North Pacific warming shifts the juvenile range of a marine apex predator*
Kisei R. Tanaka, Kyle S. Van Houtan, Eric Mailander, Beatriz S. Dias, 
Carol Galginaitis, John O’Sullivan, Christopher G. Lowe & Salvador J. 
Jorgensen
Nature Scientific Reports volume 11, Article number: 3373 (2021)
Abstract

    During the 2014–2016 North Pacific marine heatwave, unprecedented
    sightings of juvenile white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) emerged
    in central California. These records contradicted the species
    established life history, where juveniles remain in warmer waters in
    the southern California Current. This spatial shift is significant
    as it creates potential conflicts with commercial fisheries,
    protected species conservation, and public safety concerns. Here, we
    integrate community science, photogrammetry, biologging, and
    mesoscale climate data to describe and explain this phenomenon. We
    find a dramatic increase in white sharks from 2014 to 2019 in
    Monterey Bay that was overwhelmingly comprised of juvenile
    sharks < 2.5 m in total body length. Next, we derived thermal
    preferences from 22 million tag measurements of 14 juvenile sharks
    and use this to map the cold limit of their range. Consistent with
    historical records, the position of this cold edge averaged 34° N
    from 1982 to 2013 but jumped to 38.5° during the 2014–2016 marine
    heat wave. In addition to a poleward shift, thermally suitable
    habitat for juvenile sharks declined 223.2 km2 year−1 from 1982 to
    2019 and was lowest in 2015 at the peak of the heatwave. In addition
    to advancing the adaptive management of this apex marine predator,
    we discuss this opportunity to engage public on climate change
    through marine megafauna.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-82424-9

[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - February 10, 2007 *

February 10, 2007:
Announcing his bid for the White House, Illinois Senator Barack Obama 
declares, "Let us be the generation that finally frees America from the 
tyranny of oil."

http://youtu.be/1xFCPn84mK0

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