[TheClimate.Vote] February 14, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

Sun Feb 14 08:18:37 EST 2021

/*February 14, 2021*/

[PBS video 11 mins]
*Why on Earth are Winters Getting Worse if the Planet is Getting Warmer?*
PBS Terra - Feb 1, 2021
In 2015, Boston was brought to its knees by the worst winter on record, 
receiving an unprecedented 110 inches of snow. And over the last decade, 
the American Northeast has seen more than a 200% increase in the 
frequency of large, disruptive snowstorms. This trend surprised nearly 
everybody, including many of the top experts, as they had been expecting 
a warming planet to translate into milder winters. But in many 
locations, we have seen just the opposite. So what’s going on here?

We traveled to Boston to search for answers about these surprising 
effects of climate change and their connection to the jet stream, the 
polar vortex, and a phenomenon known as “arctic amplification.” We also 
discuss some of the most common risks like hypothermia, frostbite, heart 
attacks, and traffic accidents that make winter weather, far and away, 
the deadliest natural hazard of them all.

Weathered is a show hosted by meteorologist Maiya May and produced by 
Balance Media that helps explain the most common natural disasters, what 
causes them, how they’re changing, and what we can do to prepare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5W84bi9YEGY

- -

[Defining Arctic Amplification]
*How Arctic Amplification Affects the Polar Vortex*
Verisk
AER explains how accelerated Arctic warming, known as Arctic 
amplification, is increasingly disrupting the polar vortex, leading to 
widespread severe winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere’s 
mid-latitudes. To learn more, visit https://vrsk.co/polarvortex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMeI4N5dui4

- -

[another video explantion]
*Stefan Rahmstorf: Climate Change and Arctic Tipping Points - Full 
Presentation*
Oct 13, 2019
The Arctic Circle
Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor and Head of Earth System Analysis at the 
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research spoke about Climate Change 
and Arctic Tipping Points in a Plenary Session during the 
#ArcticCircle2019 Assembly.
WEBSITE: www.arcticcircle.org
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb-1MPIjoAY

[Carbon Brief]
*Analysis: Shell says new ‘Brazil-sized’ forest would be needed to meet 
1.5C climate goal*
For the first time, Shell has released a “pathway” showing how the world 
could potentially meet the Paris Agreement’s ambitious goal of limiting 
global warming to 1.5C.

This marks a significant shift in attitude towards action on climate 
change, given that only six years ago executives at the oil-and-gas 
major were sceptical about warming not breaching 2C. It now says that 
the 1.5C goal could be achieved by 2100 with CO2 emissions reaching 
“net-zero” by 2058.

A pivotal moment came in 2018 when Shell outlined a ”plausible” route to 
meeting the Paris Agreement’s “well-below 2C” goal, including seeing 
“peak oil” in 2025 with “peak gas” following a decade later.

However, Carbon Brief analysis of Shell’s new “Sky 1.5” scenario shows 
that, despite its ”highly ambitious” framing, it is, in fact, nearly 
identical to its 2C predecessor. Shell’s vision of a continued role for 
oil, gas and coal until the end of the century remains essentially the same.

Aside from the temporary impact of Covid-19, the major difference 
between the two scenarios is the “extensive scale-up of nature-based 
solutions”, specifically planting trees over an “area approaching that 
of Brazil”.

Shell chief executive Ben van Beurden describes the 1.5C pathway as a 
“truly desirable destination”, but also one that is “highly 
challenging”. While he says Shell intends to “play its part”, the report 
also emphasises the role of “people” and “societies”.

‘Inevitable transition’
The new scenario was released this week in a package with two others, 
titled “Waves” and “Islands”. Like Sky 1.5, they map an energy future 
beyond the pandemic, but without meeting the world’s climate targets.

These scenarios are “not intended to be projections or forecasts of the 
future” and are “not Shell’s strategy or business plan”, a legal 
disclaimer states:

“Ultimately, whether society meets its goals to decarbonise is not 
within Shell’s control.”

Rather, the scenarios are described as “a useful tool for exploring 
future possibilities”.

Shell used to be resistant to the idea of publishing such ambitious 
visions. Jeremy Bentham, the firm’s head of scenarios, told Carbon Brief 
in 2015 that 2C targets had become politically and socially “less 
plausible”...
- -
Responding to the suggestion that Shell’s Sky 1.5 scenario still 
includes a considerable role for fossil fuels, Bentham tells Carbon 
Brief “the world will continue to need oil throughout the century”:
“Sectors, such as industries that produce iron, steel, cement, plastic 
and chemicals and certain types of transport – the foundations of 
economic development – currently rely on the unique ability of 
hydrocarbons like oil, natural gas and coal to provide extremely high 
temperatures, chemical reactions or dense energy storage. Many of these 
cannot be electrified at all using current technology, or only at a 
prohibitively high cost.”
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-shell-says-new-brazil-sized-forest-would-be-needed-to-meet-1-5c-climate-goal

[fire risk]*
**Wildfire risk reports available for communities in the U.S.*
AuthorBill GabbertPosted onFebruary 12, 
2021CategoriesUncategorizedTagsFireWise, WUI
Reports can be customized for every city, county, and state
Headwaters Economics has developed new Wildfire Risk report system for 
communities. Reports can be customized for every U.S. city, county, and 
state which provide information about wildfire risk and potentially 
vulnerable populations. It uses public data from the USDA Forest 
Service, US Census Bureau, and other sources and is one of several 
reports available in their Economic Profile System.

Headwaters Economics explains that they created this new report because 
wildfire risk is more than a physical hazard. Economic, demographic, and 
social vulnerabilities put some people disproportionately at risk. 
Information in their reports can help elected officials, land use 
planners, fire personnel, and community health organizations to:

prioritize and direct resources to the people and places most at-risk;
customize and target outreach and education efforts; and
tailor wildfire response and operational plans.
The graphic at the top of this article is a portion of the 15-page 
report for Yreka, California, which can be downloaded here.

Arizona Central also has a system for generating data about wildfire 
risk for individual communities in the Western United States.

https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/02/12/wildfire-risk-reports-available-for-communities-in-the-u-s/

- -

[Source material]
*Wildfire Risk Report for every U.S. community*
February 2021

Wildfires have gotten bigger, more expensive, and more damaging in 
recent decades. Better understanding of wildfire risk can help 
communities prioritize prevention and mitigation measures to reach the 
most vulnerable people. A new report from Headwaters Economics provides 
community-level data about wildfire hazard and potentially vulnerable 
populations. The report is part of our Economic Profile System, a free, 
easy-to-use tool that builds customized reports from public data.
https://headwaterseconomics.org/natural-hazards/wildfire-risk-report/
- -
https://headwaterseconomics.org/apps/economic-profile-system/

[an old vampire gas awakens again]
*A New Study Closes the Case on the Mysterious Rise of a Climate 
Super-Pollutant*
Scientists who detected the return of a long-banned pollutant say 
emissions resumed their prior decline after China cracked down on 
production of the chemical.

By Phil McKenna
February 10, 2021
The whodunit began when scientists caught a whiff of an unexpected 
climate super-pollutant in the air in 2018, which spurred a global 
investigation to find its source. A subsequent crackdown on illegal 
production of the banned chemical has resulted in a return to decreasing 
emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas, two new studies conclude, 
effectively closing the case.

Production of CFC-11, which was used primarily to make foam insulation, 
was slowly phased out before being banned entirely by 2010. The 
chemical, which destroys atmospheric ozone in addition to warming the 
planet, was banned under the Montreal Protocol, an international 
agreement that was finalized in 1987 to help mend the “ozone hole” over 
Antarctica and now also addresses climate change.

However, in 2018, researchers detected an “unexpected and persistent 
increase” in global atmospheric concentrations of CFC-11, which is 7,000 
times more effective at warming the planet than carbon dioxide over the 
near term.
The study sparked independent on-the-ground investigations that found 
widespread, illegal CFC-11 production in China. A subsequent scientific 
study concluded roughly half of the observed increase in atmospheric 
concentrations resulted from illegal production in Eastern China. The 
studies and investigations led the Chinese government to a crackdown on 
the chemical’s production.

Since the Chinese enforcement actions, atmospheric concentrations of 
CFC-11 have resumed their decline, according to a pair of studies 
published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

“We raised a red flag,” said Stephen Montzka, a National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration researcher and the lead author of the initial 
2018 study as well as one of the two current studies. “Things weren’t 
going as they should have and now we have seen big changes from the time 
we made those announcements to today.”

Montzka said emissions of CFC-11 in 2019, the most current year for 
which data is available, are at or close to where they were around 2008, 
before the spike in emissions began.

Despite being banned globally by 2010, some emissions of CFC-11 persist 
as the chemical slowly leaks back out of the insulation or is released 
into the atmosphere when buildings or other foam-containing products are 
demolished.

However, had illegal production in China not occurred in recent years, 
it’s possible that current emissions, which are calculated from changes 
in atmospheric concentrations, would be significantly lower. A 2019 
technical assessment by the United Nations Environment Programme 
concluded that current emissions of CFC-11 leaking from foam and other 
end products would be roughly two-thirds lower than those observed in 
the current study.

Montzka said it’s hard to say whether CFC-11 emissions are back to where 
they would have been, but added that illegal production in recent years 
shouldn’t have a significant, lasting impact.

“Provided we don’t get any substantial increase again, ultimately we can 
conclude this pulse didn’t add substantially to… ozone depletion and 
global warming,” Montzka said.

Avipsa Mahapatra, climate campaign lead with the Environmental 
Investigation Agency, an environmental organization based in Washington 
and London, said the findings were a “shot in the arm” for climate and 
ozone protection.

“The atmosphere is telling us CFC-11 emissions are now back to a 
downward trend like they were supposed to be,” said Mahapatra, whose 
organization published a report, based on undercover visits to Chinese 
factories that confirmed their illegal production of CFC-11, just months 
after the initial scientific study. “It’s a landmark example of a global 
concerted effort that started in 2018 to deal with an epic ozone and 
climate threat.”

The current studies also show the effectiveness of international 
environmental treaties like the Montreal Protocol to reduce emissions.

Despite the good news, Mahapatra said a two-fold challenge 
remains—ensuring that illegal production of CFC-11 does not recur, and 
confiscating and destroying any remaining CFC-11 that has not yet been 
used.

Montzka said the studies and the impact they had on stopping illegal 
production of CFC-11 underscore the need for similar monitoring efforts 
going forward as governments try to reduce emissions to tackle climate 
change.

“Independent, observation-based assessments allowed us to identify a 
problem that we didn’t know existed,” Montzka said. “In the future, if 
we want to control [greenhouse gases], this is an important point to 
remember.”
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10022021/climate-super-pollutant-cfc-11-china-factories/
- -
[source matter from 2018]
*An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of 
ozone-depleting CFC-11*
Abstract
The Montreal Protocol was designed to protect the stratospheric ozone 
layer by enabling reductions in the abundance of ozone-depleting 
substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere1,2,3. 
The reduction in the atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane 
(CFC-11) has made the second-largest contribution to the decline in the 
total atmospheric concentration of ozone-depleting chlorine since the 
1990s1. However, CFC-11 still contributes one-quarter of all chlorine 
reaching the stratosphere, and a timely recovery of the stratospheric 
ozone layer depends on a sustained decline in CFC-11 concentrations1. 
Here we show that the rate of decline of atmospheric CFC-11 
concentrations observed at remote measurement sites was constant from 
2002 to 2012, and then slowed by about 50 per cent after 2012. The 
observed slowdown in the decline of CFC-11 concentration was concurrent 
with a 50 per cent increase in the mean concentration difference 
observed between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and also with 
the emergence of strong correlations at the Mauna Loa Observatory 
between concentrations of CFC-11 and other chemicals associated with 
anthropogenic emissions. A simple model analysis of our findings 
suggests an increase in CFC-11 emissions of 13 ± 5 gigagrams per year 
(25 ± 13 per cent) since 2012, despite reported production being close 
to zero4 since 2006. Our three-dimensional model simulations confirm the 
increase in CFC-11 emissions, but indicate that this increase may have 
been as much as 50 per cent smaller as a result of changes in 
stratospheric processes or dynamics. The increase in emission of CFC-11 
appears unrelated to past production; this suggests unreported new 
production, which is inconsistent with the Montreal Protocol agreement 
to phase out global CFC production by 2010.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0106-2

[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - February 14, 1979 *

February 14, 1979: The New York Times reports: "There is a real 
possibility that some people now in their infancy will live to a time 
when the ice at the North Pole will have melted, a change that would 
cause swift and perhaps catastrophic changes in climate."

http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F60716FD3A5D12728DDDAD0994DA405B898BF1D3

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