[TheClimate.Vote] January 6, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Jan 6 08:08:54 EST 2021
/*January 6, 2021*/
[Capital Weather Gang]
*The polar vortex is splitting in two, which may lead to weeks of wild
winter weather*
A sudden stratospheric warming event has pushed the polar vortex off the
North Pole, sending Arctic air on the move...
- -
By Andrew Freedman - Jan. 5, 2021
A dramatic spike in temperatures is occurring at high altitudes above
the North Pole, where the air is thin and typically frigid. Known as a
sudden stratospheric warming event, experts say it’s likely to have
potentially significant repercussions for winter weather across the
Northern Hemisphere for weeks to possibly months.
This unusually strong event may have profound influences on the weather
in the United States and Europe, possibly increasing the potential for
paralyzing snowstorms and punishing blasts of Arctic air, with the odds
of the most severe cold outbreaks highest in Northern Europe. The United
States is slightly more of a winter wild card for now, experts say, with
individual winter storms tough to predict beyond a few days in advance.
While occurring about 18 miles high in the sky and disconnected from the
weather on the ground, stratospheric warming events can affect the polar
vortex, which is a circulation of air around low pressure that acts as a
repository for some of the coldest air on the planet...
- -
This means the next several weeks at least could bring periods when
conditions would favor snowstorms along the Eastern Seaboard, mixed with
periods of at least several days when the most important ingredients
would be missing. That’s a recipe for anxiety among East Coast snow
lovers, but also some hope after a record snowless winter in the
Mid-Atlantic and parts of New England last year.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/05/polar-vortex-split-cold-snow/
- -
[Ooops winter weather]
JANUARY 5, 2021
*Imminent sudden stratospheric warming to occur, bringing increased risk
of snow over coming weeks*
by University of Bristol
The Stratospheric Polar Vortex is about to split in two, and the
weakening of the vortex was followed around two weeks later by a severe
cold air outbreak over Europe known as the Beast from the East. Data
from ERA-Interim reanalysis (Dee et al., 2011). Credit: University of
Bristol
A new study led by researchers at the Universities of Bristol, Exeter,
and Bath helps to shed light on the winter weather we may soon have in
store following a dramatic meteorological event currently unfolding high
above the North Pole.
The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere from around 10-50km
above the earth's surface. SSW events are some of the most extreme of
atmospheric phenomena and can see polar stratospheric temperature
increase by up to 50°C over the course of a few days. Such events can
bring very cold weather, which often result in snowstorms.
The infamous 2018 'Beast from the East' is a stark reminder of what an
SSW can bring. The disturbance in the stratosphere can be transmitted
downward and if this continues to the Earth's surface, there can be a
shift in the jet stream, leading to unusually cold weather across Europe
and Northern Asia. It can take a number of weeks for the signal to reach
the surface, or the process may only take a few days.
The study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research and funded
by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), involved the
analysis of 40 observed SSW events which occurred over the last 60
years. Researchers developed a novel method for tracking the signal of
an SSW downward from its onset in the stratosphere to the surface.
Findings in the paper, Tracking the stratosphere-to-surface impact of
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings suggest split events tend to be associated
with colder weather over north west Europe and Siberia.
Lead author of the study, Dr. Richard Hall, said there was an increased
chance of extreme cold, and potentially snow, over the next week or two.
"While an extreme cold weather event is not a certainty, around two
thirds of SSWs have a significant impact on surface weather. What's
more, today's SSW is potentially the most dangerous kind, where the
polar vortex splits into two smaller 'child' vortices."
"The extreme cold weather that these polar vortex breakdowns bring is a
stark reminder of how suddenly our weather can flip. Even with climate
change warming our planet, these events will still occur, meaning we
must be adaptable to an ever more extreme range of temperatures," said
Dann Mitchell, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science at the
University of Bristol and co-author of the study.
"Our study quantifies for the first time the probabilities of when we
might expect extreme surface weather following a sudden stratospheric
warming (SSW) event. These vary widely, but importantly the impacts
appear faster and stronger following events in which the stratospheric
polar vortex splits in two, as is predicted in the currently unfolding
event. Despite this advance many questions remain as to the mechanisms
causing these dramatic events, and how they can influence the surface,
and so this is an exciting and important area for future research," said
Dr. William Seviour, senior lecturer at the Department of Mathematics
and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, and co-author of the
study.
https://phys.org/news/2021-01-imminent-sudden-stratospheric-weeks.html
[One state]
*Massachusetts Legislature passes landmark climate change bill*
BOSTON —
The Massachusetts Legislature has passed breakthrough climate
legislation that overhauls the state’s climate laws, drives down
greenhouse gas emissions, creates clean energy jobs, and protects
environmental justice communities.
The bill, An Act Creating a Next-Generation Roadmap for Massachusetts
Climate Policy (S.2995), was passed by both the Massachusetts House of
Representatives and the State Senate on Monday.
The legislation sets a 2050 net-zero greenhouse gas emissions limit, as
well as statewide limits every five years; increases the requirements
for offshore wind energy procurement bringing the statewide total to
5,600 megawatts; requires emission reduction goals for MassSave, the
state’s energy efficiency program; and, for the first time, establishes
the criteria in a statute that define environmental justice populations.
It also increases support for clean energy workforce development
programs including those targeting low-income communities and improves
gas pipeline safety.
“This legislation takes a historic step in the fight against climate
change, putting Massachusetts on the path to creating a cleaner, greener
and healthier future for the next generation,” State Senate President
Karen Spilka said in a statement. “I am thrilled to see this legislation
codifies our shared goal of reducing harmful carbon emissions to zero by
2050, and creates new energy initiatives and standards to help us reach
that target.”
“This legislation represents a major piece of climate legislation that
will set the course of the Commonwealth for the next three decades,”
reads a statement from Massachusetts House Speaker Ron Mariano. “Today
we send a message loud and clear that Massachusetts will empower our
environmental justice communities, achieve net zero emissions by 2050,
continue to lead on offshore wind, increase equitable access to our
clean energy programs, and create pathways to clean energy jobs for
underserved and low-income communities.”
“Amid the unprecedented public health and economic challenges brought on
by the COVID-19 pandemic, I’m proud of the Legislature’s ongoing
commitment to protecting our environment,” said former House Speaker
Robert DeLeo. “The actions the House and Senate took today will keep
Massachusetts on-track to lead the nation in clean energy and
environmental policies.”
The climate change bill now moves to the desk of Gov. Charlie Baker.
https://www.wcvb.com/article/new-hampshire-boy-in-california-for-clinical-trial-has-beloved-cookie-monster-stolen/35133092
[recent post-pandemic video]
*"Clarity," Climate Change & Culture Shift Series*
on September 1st, 2020
Clarity presented by Dr. Rob Davies, Physicist and Climate Communicator,
Utah State University, as part of the Climate Change & Culture Shift
series, Fall 2020, Weber State University
https://1533221.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/0_ciudfxmu
- -
[Clear language, classic science, fundamentals of future climate changes
- excellent summary pre-pandemic presentation]
*Defining Radical In The Age of Humans*
Feb 7, 2020
Summit County Television
Robert Davies is a physicist and noted science communicator whose work
focuses on complexity, global change and human vibrancy. Over the past
decade Rob has delivered hundreds of public lectures ― to policymakers,
business leaders, civic organizations and faith communities ― and his
“performance science” theatrical collaboration The Crossroads Project |
Rising Tide has been performed across the U.S. and in three countries.
Dr. Davies has served as a scientific liaison for NASA on the
International Space Station Project; as a project scientist with USU’s
Space Dynamics Laboratory; and an officer and meteorologist in the
United States Air Force. Originally hailing from the Black Hills of
South Dakota, Rob is currently Associate Professor of Professional
Practice in Utah State University’s Dept. of Physics, in Logan, Utah.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0iEv7B2dzQ
- -
[This audio recorded shortly before his video lecture - a pre-pandemic talk]
*Dr. Rob Davies talks climate*
May 11, 2020
University of Montana College of Business
In case you forgot, we’re facing a few other big, multi-dimensional
challenges that require coordination across myriad aspects of a global
society. Climate change is one such challenge and when Utah State
University Professor Rob Davies visited Missoula to keynote Climate
Smart Missoula’s Big Climate Event, we jumped at the chance to get some
time with him. Rob is not only a top flight scientist, he’s also a
gifted and passionate science communicator. Climate conversations often
leave us feeling helpless but Rob’s view is much more hopeful. Not
because the problem is small, but rather because we have not yet even
begun to take it seriously.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoaEAgb_A6w
- -
[Rare video of Robert Davies - thanks goes to LaUra S. ]
*Planetary Boundaries & Social Foundations - A Framework for a
Sustainable, Just and Vibrant Space for Humanity*
From cats on December 3rd, 2019
https://1533221.mediaspace.kaltura.com/media/0_brr7p08n
[Digging back into the internet news archive]
*On this day in the history of global warming - January 6, 2009 *
January 6, 2009: Days before leaving office, a rather defensive
President George W. Bush insists that his administration has "...taken
aggressive steps to make America's energy supply cleaner and more secure
-- and confronted the challenge of global climate change."
http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2009/01/20090106-4.html
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