[✔️] July 14, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[👀 Richard Pauli]

/*July 14, 2021*/

[opinion in Forbes]
*Billionaires claiming climate leadership should not promote space tourism*

    Space travel was widely popular in the 1960s. By some accounts, the
    image of Earth from Apollo 8 in 1968 led to the first Earth Day. But
    this is 2021, when the effects of the climate crisis are grimly
    visible. Bezos and Branson in space suits will probably not motivate
    a grassroots climate uprising. Climate leaders should work towards
    downsizing carbon-intensive and elitist activities such as air
    travel, and certainly not launch new products such as space tourism.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/prakashdolsak/2021/07/12/billionaires-claiming-climate-leadership-should-not-promote-space-tourism/?sh=72bde1516f8a 


- -

[Biggest news is clearly visible from Space]
*Oregon wildfire becomes biggest in the nation, burning over 200,000 acres*
BY ZOE CHRISTEN JONES, CAITLIN YILEK
JULY 13, 2021
A wildfire raging in Oregon is currently the largest fire in the nation, 
burning more than 201,000 acres across the state, officials said 
Tuesday. The Bootleg Fire started in Klamath County on July 6, forcing 
officials to place more than 100 homes under mandatory evacuation orders.

As of Tuesday, the fire destroyed 54 structures and 21 homes, according 
to CBS affiliate KOIN. The cause of the fire is currently unknown.

Fire officials said the blaze will continue to spread in areas with 
above-average temperatures and will only be fueled by dry ground and 
high winds, KOIN reported. Residents living in areas with the highest 
evacuation levels face citations or arrest, police said.

As of Tuesday night, there were three other fires across the state: The 
Jack Fire in Douglas County, the Grandview Fire near Oregon's Crooked 
River National Grassland and the Bruler Fire near Detroit. The Jack Fire 
has grown to more than 12,500 acres and is 15% contained. Meanwhile, the 
Grandview Fire has burned over 5,700 acres and is 5% contained, KOIN 
reported. The Bruler Fire, which was detected Monday, is estimated to be 
about 60 acres, the U.S. Forest Service said. It is not currently a 
threat to any structures or communities, but it is 0% contained, the 
agency said.

"This fire does have the potential to spread and the forest is very 
dry," Sweet Home District Ranger and agency administrator Nikki Swanson 
said in a news release. "The safety of the public and the firefighters 
is our first priority. We're in the process of closing several roads and 
trails to ensure firefighters can work efficiently and that the public 
remains safe. This will be managed as a full suppression fire."

In California, The Beckwourth Complex fire, a combination of two fires 
in Plumas National Forest, has burned more than 90,000 acres as of 
Tuesday night. This fire season is sparking memories of 2020, the worst 
year ever for California wildfires. This year, twice as many acres have 
already burned...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bootleg-fire-oregon-biggest-nation-acres-burned/



[new report global temp]
*June 2021 Global Temperature Update*
13 July 2021
James Hansen and Makiko Sato
Global temperature in June was +1.13°C (relative to the 1880-1920 base 
period, which is our best estimate of preindustrial temperature); it was 
+0.85°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period. High temperature 
anomalies were notable in northwest North America, northeast Siberia, 
and a horseshoe-shaped area covering much of Europe and western Asia 
(Fig. 1).  The Pacific Northwest heatwave continued into July with daily 
temperatures exceeding prior records by several degrees, an extreme that 
merits discussion.

One proffered explanation is the “fat tail” of climate sensitivity, but 
that fat tail refers to different physical effects and is a wrong 
explanation for the Pacific Northwest heat wave.[1]  A correct partial 
explanation is implicit in the “bell curve” for interannual variability 
of local temperature based on observations.[2]  Fig. 2 shows that the 
warming of the past half-century has caused the bell curve to shift to 
the right and develop a long, fat tail.  A summer that is three or more 
standard deviations warmer than the 1951-1980 average – which almost 
never occurred during 1951-1980 – is now rather common.

If we define temperature anomalies relative to recent years – rather 
then 1951-1980 – the bell curve becomes nearly symmetric again (relative 
to a higher mean temperature), without a long tail at high 
temperatures.  However, it is appropriate to keep the base period fixed, 
because humanity and nature are adapted to the climate that has long 
existed.  In the past few decades global temperature has shot up well 
above the range of the Holocene, the past 10,000 years (Fig. 3 in Young 
People’s Burden[3]).  Thus, it is better to keep the base period fixed 
at 1951-1980, because that is already at the upper end of the Holocene 
range.
The shifting bell curve due to global warming can account for record 
temperatures in the U.S. Southwest this week, but a special factor 
contributed to the remarkable Pacific Northwest heat wave...
- -
  Failure of models to simulate well the effects of increasing ice melt 
lead the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to conclude 
that even scenarios with increasing greenhouse gas emission will only a 
slowdown of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation (AMOC) and a 
sea level rise only of the order of 1 meter or less.  We conclude, on 
the contrary that such greenhouse gas scenarios will cause complete 
shutdown of the AMOC and SMOC (Southern Ocean overturning circulation), 
with the latter spurring sea level rise of several meters.
https://mailchi.mp/caa/may-2021-global-temperature-update-6vdouglinl?e=c4e20a3850



[This is just the beginning - says climate scientist]
*Dying from the heat*
By Peter Gleick | July 2, 2021
No one wants to be a statistic in a climate disaster—an anonymous entry 
in a dataset of extreme events. But sometimes things sneak up on you. A 
couple of weeks ago, during one of the extraordinary and severe heat 
events striking western North America, I almost suffered from heat stroke.

You’d think I would know better—I’m a climate scientist and hydrologist. 
I’ve been researching, writing about, and discussing climate and weather 
risks for nearly four decades. I know that heat deaths are the most 
prevalent of all deaths from natural disasters, killing thousands or 
even tens of thousands of people every year. I know that extreme heat 
events are getting worse, precisely because of human-caused climate change.

And yet, there I was, trying to dig a simple hole in the ground for a 
wooden post in the dense, clay soils of the foothills of the Sierra 
Nevada in 100-degree-plus heat. Fifteen minutes was all it took for me 
to suddenly experience extreme dizziness and nausea. I came very close 
to passing out and was only saved by two nearby workers who brought me 
cold water and a cold compress to put on my head and neck and saw me 
safely back to an air-conditioned enclosure.

Climate change is already causing an increase in extreme events, 
including droughts and heat. The western United States is suffering from 
perhaps the most widespread and severe drought in recent history. As of 
early July, more than 98 percent of the American West was suffering from 
drought, with more than 80 percent in severe drought or worse. Extreme 
heat has struck several times since June, breaking records throughout 
the region and putting more than 20 million people under heat warnings 
from Canada to Mexico. Portland, Oregon broke a new record high of 115 
degrees Fahrenheit; Seattle set a new record high of 108. Temperatures 
in the small town of Lytton, British Columbia, climbed to 121 degrees 
Fahrenheit (49.5 degrees Celsius), the highest temperature ever recorded 
in Canada, and then the town was destroyed by a fast-burning wildfire. 
Wildfires are now spreading rapidly throughout the region. Water levels 
in the major Colorado River reservoirs are at record lows, and Arizona 
and Nevada will almost certainly see reductions in their allocations 
from the river next year.

We’re not prepared for climate change, even in one of the wealthiest 
countries of the world and even with decades of warnings from 
scientists, in part because of extensive efforts of climate denial, the 
waffling of politicians, and legacy infrastructure built for yesterday’s 
climate, not tomorrow’s. In the Pacific Northwest, for example, struck 
by the recent extreme heat, very few people have air-conditioners, 
worsening the risk of heat illnesses among the most vulnerable 
populations. In a severe heat wave in Europe in 2019, several thousand 
people died and power plants had to be shut down because water 
temperatures were too high to cool them. A worse European heat wave in 
2003 killed an estimated 70,000 people.
This is just the beginning. The Earth has only warmed by around a degree 
or two so far and is on track for several more degrees of warming. And 
yet the severe imbalances we’re now experiencing in extreme weather are 
only going to get worse with each passing year if rapid reductions in 
greenhouse gas emissions can’t be achieved. The heat extremes we’re 
seeing now will become the baseline—regular events—punctuated by even 
more extreme high temperatures as the planet warms further and weather 
patterns are increasingly disrupted.

I think I know better now than to try to do physical labor during 
extreme heat. But many workers have little or no ability to avoid these 
risks: farmworkers, construction workers, laborers of all kinds who are 
exposed to increasingly severe conditions and are often not informed 
about the risks or offered protections from them. More people are going 
to get sick; more are going to die from climate threats. Try not to be 
one of them, and do what you can to get our politicians to acknowledge 
and work to reduce these risks.

    Peter Gleick is a member of the US National Academy of Sciences and
    a hydroclimatologist. He received a MacArthur “genius” fellowship
    for his work on the consequences of climate change for water
    resources, and the risks of conflicts over water. He has pioneered
    and advanced the concepts of the “soft path for water” and “peak
    water,” and founded the Pacific Institute.

https://thebulletin.org/2021/07/dying-from-the-heat/


[same goes for stream banks]
*Researchers map how sea-level rise adaptation strategies impact 
economies and floodwaters*
by Stanford University - - JULY 12, 2021
Communities trying to fight sea-level rise could inadvertently make 
flooding worse for their neighbors, according to a new study from the 
Stanford Natural Capital Project.
- -
"It's not practical to keep building taller and taller seawalls to hold 
back the ocean," said Anne Guerry, chief strategy officer and lead 
scientist at the Stanford Natural Capital Project and senior author on 
the paper. "Our goal was to show how the threat of sea-level rise is 
interconnected with the whole social-ecological system of the Bay Area. 
Communities need to coordinate their approaches to sea-level rise 
adaptation so we can find solutions that are best for the whole bay."

By 2100, sea levels are projected to rise by almost seven feet in the 
Bay Area. Millions of people live and work in buildings that are 
collectively worth hundreds of billions of dollars within the Bay Area's 
projected sea-level rise zone. As water levels increase, governments are 
looking for ways to protect their communities and economies.

Following the flow
The researchers used complex mathematical models to map how 
floodwaters—and the economic damages related to floods—would flow 
depending on where new seawalls were built. They found that blocking 
certain areas of the bay's shoreline would be particularly damaging to 
communities throughout the region. For instance, if a seawall were built 
along the San Jose shoreline, communities throughout the bay, from 
Redwood City to Napa and Solano counties, would face an additional $723 
million in flood damage costs after just one high tide, according to the 
models.

Damages to buildings and homes aren't the only losses that could result 
from walling shorelines—it also can cut off habitat for important bird 
and fish species, limit the natural area available to store carbon and 
create water quality issues by destroying wetlands that naturally 
provide water treatment.

"You may be protecting your immediate community, but you may be creating 
serious costs and damages for your neighbors," said Robert Griffin, an 
economist at the Natural Capital Project and co-author on the paper. 
"When it comes to current sea-level rise planning, there's some 
incomplete cost-benefit accounting going on."..
- -
"It's critical to consider the regional impacts of local actions," said 
Michelle Hummel, assistant professor at the University of Texas at 
Arlington and lead author on the paper. "Studies like ours can identify 
actions that will have large impacts, either positive or negative, on 
the rest of the bay and help to inform decisions about how to manage the 
shoreline."

Not every city or county has a landscape suitable for strategic 
flooding, which requires wide plains or valleys where water will 
naturally flow. Therefore, the researchers say it's crucial that Bay 
Area communities work together to identify the places where nature-based 
solutions like flooding make the most sense.

The researchers also looked at demographic information in their models 
to better understand who would be affected by possible strategic 
flooding plans. They say avoiding adaptation plans that add more 
pressure to poor or otherwise overburdened communities—by forcing them 
to move or creating increased economic stress—is key.

To understand the broader impacts of climate resilience decisions, 
including investments in nature, the researchers plan to model how 
sea-level rise adaptation strategies are connected with infrastructure, 
employment, community dynamics and more.

"Our plans should be as interconnected as our ecosystems," said Guerry.
https://phys.org/news/2021-07-sea-level-strategies-impact-economies-floodwaters.html
- -
[more ]
*Economic evaluation of sea-level rise adaptation strongly influenced by 
hydrodynamic feedbacks*
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/29/e2025961118



[Don't worry, lessons not learned will be repeated]
*Study: Extreme weather may not lead to increased support for climate 
action*
Many people aren’t making the connection between global warming and 
weather disasters.
by JENNIFER MARLON - JUNE 16, 2021
*Hot, dry days influence perceptions*
The strong influence of partisanship on people’s understanding of global 
warming may not be surprising, but are there some changes in the weather 
that people are more likely to link with “global warming?” If there are, 
these weather events are potential conversation starters about climate 
change.

In a recent study published in the journal Global Environmental Change, 
my colleagues and I tried to answer this question by combining 12 years 
of YPCCC survey data with 11 different temperature and precipitation 
indicators of changing climate conditions over time. Together, the 
indicators captured long-term temperature and precipitation trends, and 
also recent extreme heat, rainfall, and snow events between 2008-2015.

We found that only one type of weather affected Americans’ beliefs that 
they had experienced global warming: hot, dry days. When hot, dry days 
persist for a long period of time, drought conditions arise. In 
particular, the intense heat and lack of rainfall that affected Texas in 
the Midwest in 2011, and which turned into a severe drought, stands out 
clearly in the study’s climate data (Fig. 2, top panel). This drought 
was also associated with extreme wildfires in Texas, which burned about 
4 million acres that year, doubling the previous record.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/06/study-extreme-weather-may-not-lead-to-increased-support-for-climate-action/



[Uh oh, something to look out for in future]
*NASA predicts a "wobble" in the moon's orbit may lead to record 
flooding on Earth*
Every coast in the U.S. is facing rapidly increasing high tide floods 
thanks to a "wobble" in the moon's orbit working in tandem with climate 
change-fueled rising sea levels.

A new study from NASA and the University of Hawaii, published recently 
in the journal Nature Climate Change, warns that upcoming changes in the 
moon's orbit could lead to record flooding on Earth in the next decade.

Through mapping the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 
(NOAA) sea-level rise scenarios, flooding thresholds and astronomical 
cycles, researchers found flooding in American coastal cities could be 
several multiples worse in the 2030s, when the next moon "wobble" is 
expected to begin. They expect the flooding to significantly damage 
infrastructure and displace communities...
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/nasa-wobble-moon-orbit-record-flooding-earth-sea-level-rise-climate-change/ 


- -

[Paper]
Published: 21 June 2021
*Rapid increases and extreme months in projections of United States 
high-tide flooding*
Philip R. Thompson, Matthew J. Widlansky, Benjamin D. Hamlington, Mark 
A. Merrifield, John J. Marra, Gary T. Mitchum & William Sweet
Nature Climate Change volume 11, pages584–590 (2021)

    Abstract
    Coastal locations around the United States, particularly along the
    Atlantic coast, are experiencing recurrent flooding at high tide.
    Continued sea-level rise (SLR) will exacerbate the issue where
    present, and many more locations will begin to experience recurrent
    high-tide flooding (HTF) in the coming decades. Here we use
    established SLR scenarios and flooding thresholds to demonstrate how
    the combined effects of SLR and nodal cycle modulations of tidal
    amplitude lead to acute inflections in projections of future HTF.
    The mid-2030s, in particular, may see the onset of rapid increases
    in the frequency of HTF in multiple US coastal regions. We also show
    how annual cycles and sea-level anomalies lead to extreme seasons or
    months during which many days of HTF cluster together. Clustering
    can lead to critical frequencies of HTF occurring during monthly or
    seasonal periods one to two decades prior to being expected on an
    annual basis.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01077-8



[NYTimes]
*Climate Change Future for Kids*
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/18/climate/climate-change-future-kids.html




[The news archive - looking back]
*On this day in the history of global warming July 14, 2008*

On MSNBC's "Countdown," fill-in host Rachel Maddow describes another 
controversy that has left the US feeling "Bushed":

"Number one, serial driller-gate.  President Bush today lifted an 
executive order banning off-shore drilling.  It‘s an order that dates 
back to the other President Bush.  The move accomplishes nothing, 
because Congress still has its own ban in effect.  But that‘s not the 
only way we know this is pure politics.  According to Mr. Bush‘s own 
Energy Information Administration, off-shore production could not even 
start until five years after the off-shore sites were leased.  So that‘s 
2013.  Off-shore sites could not significantly impact U.S. production 
until 18 years after leasing. So that's 2026.

"And the impact on prices from off-shore drilling when the oil finally 
starts flowing in 2026?  Because oil prices are set on a global market, 
the EIA says the offshore impact on prices would be, quote, 
insignificant.  But the political impact, priceless."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHvqjj3yeDA


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