[✔️] November 3, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest
👀 Richard Pauli
richard at theclimate.vote
Wed Nov 3 07:59:05 EDT 2021
/*November 3, 2021*/
/[ PBS says it best by text, transcript, video or audio - 10 min ]/
*The Earth is at a tipping point. Here’s what’s at stake if we don’t act
on climate change*
Nov 1, 2021
Here's how, back in 2015, Princeton University's Michael Oppenheimer
stressed the urgency:
If we don't start with rapid emissions reductions and substantial
emissions reductions, that we will pass a danger point, beyond which
the consequences for many people and countries on Earth will simply
become unacceptable and eventually disastrous. -- Michael
Oppenheimer, Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs,
Princeton University
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-earth-is-at-a-tipping-point-heres-whats-at-stake-if-we-dont-act-on-climate-change#transcript
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-earth-is-at-a-tipping-point-heres-whats-at-stake-if-we-dont-act-on-climate-change#audio
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-earth-is-at-a-tipping-point-heres-whats-at-stake-if-we-dont-act-on-climate-change
- -
/[ NASA looks closely ]/
*Global Climate Change Impact on Crops Expected Within 10 Years, NASA
Study Finds*
Nov 1, 2021
Climate change may affect the production of maize (corn) and wheat as
early as 2030 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, according
to a new NASA study published in the journal, Nature Food. Maize crop
yields are projected to decline 24%, while wheat could potentially see
growth of about 17%.
Using advanced climate and agricultural models, scientists found that
the change in yields is due to projected increases in temperature,
shifts in rainfall patterns, and elevated surface carbon dioxide
concentrations from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. These changes
would make it more difficult to grow maize in the tropics, but could
expand wheat’s growing range.
“We did not expect to see such a fundamental shift, as compared to crop
yield projections from the previous generation of climate and crop
models conducted in 2014,” said lead author Jonas Jägermeyr, a crop
modeler and climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (GISS) and The Earth Institute at Columbia University in New
York City. The projected maize response was surprisingly large and
negative, he said. “A 20% decrease from current production levels could
have severe implications worldwide.”
[2 minute YouTube video-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NZIvvhGlR0 ]
NASA Goddard
Average global crop yields for maize, or corn, may see a
decrease of 24% by late century, with the declines becoming
apparent by 2030, with high greenhouse gas emissions, according
to a new NASA study. Wheat, in contrast, may see an uptick in
crop yields by about 17%. The change in yields is due to the
projected increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns
and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations due to
human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, making it more difficult
to grow maize in the tropics and expanding wheat’s growing range.
To arrive at their projections, the research team used two sets
of models. First, they used climate model simulations from the
international Climate Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6
(CMIP6). Each of the five CMIP6 climate models used for this
study runs its own unique response of Earth’s atmosphere to
greenhouse gas emission scenarios through 2100. These responses
differ somewhat due to variations in their representations of
the Earth's climate system.
Then the research team used the climate model simulations as inputs for
12 state-of-the-art global crop models that are part of the Agricultural
Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), an international
partnership coordinated by Columbia University. The crop models simulate
on a large scale how crops grow and respond to environmental conditions
such as temperature, rainfall and atmospheric carbon dioxide, which are
provided by the climate models. Each crop species’ behavior is based on
their real life biological responses studied in indoor and outdoor lab
experiments. In the end, the team created about 240 global climate-crop
model simulations for each crop. By using multiple climate and crop
models in various combinations, the researchers were more confident in
their results.
“What we're doing is driving crop simulations that are effectively
growing virtual crops day-by-day, powered by a supercomputer, and then
looking at the year-by-year and decade-by-decade change in each location
of the world,” said Alex Ruane, co-director of the GISS Climate Impacts
Group and a co-author of the study.
This study focused on climate change impacts. These models do not
address economic incentives, changing farming practices, and adaptations
such as breeding hardier crop varieties, although that is an area of
active research. The research team plans to look at these angles in
follow-up work, since these factors will also determine the fate of
agricultural yields in the future as people respond to climate-driven
changes.
The team looked at changes to long-term average crop yields and
introduced a new estimate for when climate change impacts “emerge” as a
discernable signal from the usual, historically known variability in
crop yields. Soybean and rice projections showed a decline in some
regions but at the global scale the different models still disagree on
the overall impacts from climate change. For maize and wheat, the
climate effect was much clearer, with most of the model results pointing
in the same direction.
Maize, or corn, is grown all over the world, and large quantities are
produced in countries nearer the equator. North and Central America,
West Africa, Central Asia, Brazil, and China will potentially see their
maize yields decline in the coming years and beyond as average
temperatures rise across these breadbasket regions, putting more stress
on the plants.
Wheat, which grows best in temperate climates, may see a broader area
where it can be grown as temperatures rise, including the Northern
United States and Canada, North China Plains, Central Asia, Southern
Australia, and East Africa, but these gains may level off mid-century.
Temperature is not the only factor the models consider when simulating
future crop yields. Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
have a positive effect on photosynthesis and water retention, increasing
crop yields, though often at a cost to nutrition. This effect happens
more so for wheat than maize, which is more accurately captured in the
current generation of models. Rising global temperatures also are linked
with changes in rainfall patterns, and the frequency and duration of
heat waves and droughts, which can affect crop health and productivity.
Higher temperatures also affect the length of growing seasons and
accelerate crop maturity.
“You can think of plants as collecting sunlight over the course of the
growing season,” said Ruane. “They're collecting that energy and then
putting it into the plant and the grain. So, if you rush through your
growth stages, by the end of the season, you just haven't collected as
much energy.” As a result, the plant produces less total grain than it
would with a longer development period. “By growing faster, your yield
actually goes down.”
“Even under optimistic climate change scenarios, where societies enact
ambitious efforts to limit global temperature rise, global agriculture
is facing a new climate reality,” Jägermeyr said. “And with the
interconnectedness of the global food system, impacts in even one
region’s breadbasket will be felt worldwide.”
Ellen Gray - NASA’s Earth Science News Team
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2021/global-climate-change-impact-on-crops-expected-within-10-years-nasa-study-finds
[ opposing irony ]
*Even as Biden Pushes Clean Energy, He Seeks More Oil Production*
President Biden acknowledged “it seems like an irony” that he is asking
energy-rich nations to boost oil production as he implores the world to
tackle climate change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/01/climate/biden-oil-gas-cop26.html
/[ Methane is one of the worst ]/
*Biden to announce tougher regulations on methane emissions from oil and
gas production*
NOV 2 2021
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/02/-biden-epa-gets-tough-on-methane-leaks-from-oil-and-gas-sector-.html
/[ Financial Times ]/
*Climate change could bring near-unliveable conditions for 3bn people,
say scientists*
Each degree of warming above present levels corresponds to roughly 1bn
people falling outside of ‘climate niche’
https://www.ft.com/content/072b5c87-7330-459b-a947-be6767a1099d
/[ Cultural discussions -- "Hungry for hope, with a 60% chance of
apocalypse" - - "ego thinking objectifies the other" ] /
*Weather Reports: The Climate of Consciousness, featuring Michael Pollan
and Terry Tempest Williams*
Nov 1, 2021
Harvard Divinity School
Michael Pollan has been educating us with illuminating prose on “the
botany of desire” for a very long time. He will discuss his latest book
This Is Your Mind On Plants and his landmark bestseller How To Change
Your Mind: What the New Science of Psychedelics Teaches Us About
Consciousness, Dying, Addiction, Depression, and Transcendence. Pollan’s
call for change, restoration, and resiliency may be the very thing we
need to bolster our consciousness in the midst of climate collapse.
Pollan is the author of six New York Times bestsellers.
Respondent: Charles Stang, Director of the Center for the Study of World
Religion
The live conversation will be streamed on the Harvard Divinity School
YouTube page and is a series Constellation Project in partnership with
the Center of the Study of World Religions, Religion and Public Life,
and the Planetary Health Alliance.
Harvard Divinity School
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUmudIdHM6s /[ starts ~10 mins in,
discussion begins ~17 mins in ]/
/[ video discussion - sequestration, restoration ] /
*2021 Climate Leadership Series Oct. 28 Webinar: The Critical Role of
Natural Climate Solutions*
Oct 29, 2021
Climate Leadership Conference
Nature-based solutions (NbS), or natural climate solutions, refer to
projects that protect, restore, and manage natural ecosystems. They
provide important environmental and social benefits too, contributing to
more equitable communities, cleaner air and water, and increased
biodiversity.
This interview with Lisa Jackson, VP of Environment, Policy, and Social
Initiatives at Apple, will discuss how Apple is incorporating
nature-based solutions into its climate commitments. Tune in at 1 PM
ET/10 AM PT to hear how the world's most profitable tech company is
working towards a net-zero future.
There is no single solution to addressing climate change, but
nature-based solutions can make a big impact on our ambitious road to
net zero. Nature-based solutions are preventing greenhouse gas
emissions, actively removing carbon from the atmosphere, and restoring
green infrastructure and building climate resilience.
Tune in to this expert-led panel to learn more about how companies are
working to meet the ambitious goals of today while planning for a
net-zero, climate resilient future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmfL9jmTENo
/[ Radically different interpretation of our condition - we are in
critical overshoot - 2 hour video ] /
*William Rees: Techno-Industrial Society is Inherently Unsustainable 17
Jun 2021*
Jun 17, 2021
US Association of the Club of Rome
William Rees: Techno-Industrial Society is Inherently Unsustainable: Is
Collapse Inevitable?
Zoom meeting hosted by the US Association of the Club of Rome on 17 Jun 2021
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASS-zSUwEkc -- starts about 7 mins in
-- lecture for 60 mins -- discussion for another hour.
- -
/[ similar repeated messages ]/
*Keynote Lecture: Prof. (Emeritus) William E. Rees - Climate change
isn't the problem, so what is?*
Jan 28, 2021
Mashber Aklim
הרצאה מרכזית: Prof. (Emeritus) William E. Rees Climate change isn't the
problem, so what is?
University of British Columbia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oVTHKzC7TM
- -
*[ a recent Rees lecture ]*
Institut des sciences cognitives - UQAM
*ISC 2021 Summer School – Cognitive Challenges of Climate Change
(https://sites.grenadine.uqam.ca/sites...) *
Day 9
Talk by William E. Rees: The Enigma of Climate Inaction – On the Human
Nature of Policy Failure
MC: Alexia Ostrolenk, Ph.D Candidate in Psychiatric Science (UdeM);
Science Communicator (ComScicon-QC, BrainReach)
Abstract:
H. sapiens is a self-described intelligent species, yet seems
committed to destroying its own habitat. Human-induced climate
change, driven by carbon-dioxide and other GHG emissions, is one of
several well-known threats to global civilization. Nevertheless, 34
climate conferences and half a dozen major international agreements
in the past 50 years have failed to produce even a ripple in the
curve of exponentially increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Climate change is accelerating. This presentation: 1) examines some
of the evolutionary, behavioural and cognitive impediments to
effective corrective action by governments and international
agencies and; 2) advances some ideological, political and
organizational changes that must be implemented at all levels of
society to avoid global climate catastrophe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDWhjSUu8UY
[The news archive - looking back]
*On this day in the history of global warming November 3, 2010*
November 3, 2010: In a post-midterm election press conference, President
Obama states:
"With respect to the EPA, I think the smartest thing for us to do is to
see if we can get Democrats and Republicans in a room who are serious
about energy independence and are serious about keeping our air clean
and our water clean and dealing with the issue of greenhouse gases --
and seeing are there ways that we can make progress in the short term
and invest in technologies in the long term that start giving us the
tools to reduce greenhouse gases and solve this problem.
"The EPA is under a court order that says greenhouse gases are a
pollutant that fall under their jurisdiction. And I think one of the
things that's very important for me is not to have us ignore the
science, but rather to find ways that we can solve these problems that
don’t hurt the economy, that encourage the development of clean energy
in this country, that, in fact, may give us opportunities to create
entire new industries and create jobs that -- and that put us in a
competitive posture around the world.
"So I think it’s too early to say whether or not we can make some
progress on that front. I think we can. Cap and trade was just one way
of skinning the cat; it was not the only way. It was a means, not an
end. And I’m going to be looking for other means to address this problem.
"And I think EPA wants help from the legislature on this. I don’t think
that the desire is to somehow be protective of their powers here. I
think what they want to do is make sure that the issue is being dealt with."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4F8e2Cye08 (35:15-38:48)
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