[✔️] November 20, 2021 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[👀 Richard Pauli]

/*November 20, 2021*/

/[ Government acts - but it is not yet done]/
*House passes roughly $2 trillion spending package that would expand 
social benefits and fight climate change*
Republicans delayed the vote, but Democrats pushed ahead on one of 
Biden’s key priorities. The battle now moves to the Senate.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/11/19/house-spending-reconciliation-bill/
- -
/[ well aimed over ten years ]/
*What’s in the $2.2 Trillion Social Policy and Climate Bill*
The package includes $400 billion to bolster support for children and 
families, $555 billion for climate change programs and $166 billion in 
housing aid.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/explaining-social-policy-climate-bill.html


/[ Scientists start predicting] /
*How climate change may shape the world in the centuries to come*
As 2100 looms closer, climate projections should look farther into the 
future, scientists say
- -
These visualizations — of U.S. Midwestern farms overtaken by subtropical 
plants, of a dried-up Amazon rainforest, of extreme heat baking the 
Indian subcontinent — emphasize why researchers need to push climate 
projections long past the customary benchmark of 2100, environmental 
social scientist Christopher Lyon and colleagues contend September 24 in 
Global Change Biology.

Fifty years have passed since the first climate projections, which set 
that distant target at 2100, says Lyon, of McGill University in 
Montreal. But that date isn’t so far off anymore, and the effects of 
greenhouse gas emissions emitted in the past and present will linger for 
centuries (SN: 8/9/21).

To visualize what that future world might look like, the researchers 
considered three possible climate trajectories — low, moderate and high 
emissions as used in past reports by the United Nations’ 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — and projected changes all 
the way out to 2500 (SN: 1/7/20). The team focused particularly on 
impacts on civilization: heat stress, failing crops and changes in land 
use and vegetation (SN: 3/13/17)...
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/climate-change-projections-2500

- -

/[ academic study is an opinion ]/
*Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100*
First published: 24 September 2021 
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15871Citations: 1
Abstract

    Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in
    ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans.
    Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise,
    ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100,
    the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of
    past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is
    therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and
    climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before
    2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions
    of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need
    for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500
    under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated
    projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our
    projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after
    2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that
    projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and
    associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15871

- -

/[ from Science News - independent journalism ]/
*Climate models agree things will get bad. Capturing just how bad is tricky*
Scientists still aren’t sure what the worst-case scenario for Earth’s 
future climate looks like
- -
More information doesn’t always mean more clarity. And that is now 
feeding into uncertainty about just how bad the “worst-case scenario” 
might be for Earth’s climate.

Five years ago, the probable worst-case climate scenarios were worrisome 
enough. Under a so-called “business-as-usual” scenario, in which 
humankind takes no action to abate greenhouse gas emissions, by 2100 the 
planet was projected to warm between 2.6 degrees and 4.8 degrees Celsius 
relative to the average Earth temperature from 1986 to 2005 (SN: 
4/13/14). Global mean sea level was thought likely to increase by up to 
a meter in that same scenario, according to the 2014 report by the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.

But the newest generation of climate models suggests Earth’s climate may 
be even more sensitive to very high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide 
than once thought. And that, in turn, is increasing projections of just 
how hot it could get.

“We’re having discussions of ‘Do we believe these models?’” says Andrew 
Gettelman, a climate scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric 
Research, or NCAR, in Boulder, Colo.

That’s because the simulations use the same equations to look at past 
and future climate conditions. And many simulations still struggle to 
re-create accurately the climate of very warm time periods in the past, 
such as the Eocene Epoch (SN: 11/3/15). As the world gets hotter, it 
turns out, the uncertainties start to ramp up. “Nobody is arguing about 
whether [the temperature increase will be] less than 2 degrees,” 
Gettelman says. “We’re arguing about the high end.”

Turning up the heat
The first whiff that something very strange was going on with the latest 
models came in March, at a meeting in Barcelona of scientists and 
modelers working on next-gen climate simulations. Many of the 
simulations are destined to be incorporated into the next IPCC 
assessment report, the first part of which is scheduled for release in 
April 2021...
- -
One of the largest uncertainties is how warming oceans can interact with 
the vast underbellies of glaciers fringing the ice sheets, eroding them, 
Rignot says. To identify how such erosion might occur requires detailed 
bathymetry maps, charts of the seafloor that can reveal deep channels 
that allow warmer ocean water to sneak into fjords and eat away at the 
glaciers (SN: 4/3/18). He and his colleagues have been creating some of 
those maps for Greenland.

Scientists also are trying to get boots-on-the-ground data to tackle 
other uncertainties, such as how warming can change the behavior of the 
ice sheets themselves as they stretch, bend and slide across the ground. 
In 2018, an international collaboration of scientists began a five-year 
project to study the breakup of the Florida-sized Thwaites Glacier in 
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in real time. Warm ocean waters are 
thinning the glacier, which supports the ice sheet like a buttress, 
slowing the flow of ice toward the ocean. Thwaites is likely to 
collapse, possibly within the next few decades.

And there are other processes not yet included in the CMIP models that 
could send ice tumbling rapidly into the sea: Meltwater seeps through 
cracks and crevasses to the base of the ice sheet, lubricating its slide 
from land to ocean. Meltwater can also refreeze into solid, impermeable 
slabs that can speed up the flow of newer meltwater into the ocean (SN: 
9/18/19). Perhaps most frighteningly, some researchers have suggested 
that future warming could cause Antarctica’s giant, steep ice cliffs to 
suddenly lose large chunks of ice to the ocean, rapidly raising sea 
levels (SN: 2/6/19).

There’s a good reason why current climate models don’t include the ice 
cliff hypothesis, Alley says. “The best models, the ones that you can 
have the most faith that they’re reconstructing what’s happened 
recently, generally do not spend a lot of effort on breaking things 
off,” he says. The problem isn’t in simulating the physics of ice bits 
breaking off, it’s in simulating exactly which ice shelves will break 
off — and when. That makes the potential error of simulating those 
processes very large.

“That’s a lot of the tension in the community right now,” Alley adds. 
“How to deal with this is still proving very difficult.”...
- -
If Thwaites glacier retreats all the way to Antarctica’s interior, 
ongoing calving could create massive cliffs twice as high and 10 times 
as wide as any observed in Greenland, he noted in December at the 
American Geophysical Union’s annual meeting in San Francisco.

The IPCC is “assuming we’ll get lucky and it won’t happen,” Alley said. 
But the ocean sediment data raises “really serious questions about that 
assumption.”

Gettelman, meanwhile, cautions that the lingering uncertainty in future 
projections does not mean the world should wait to see what happens or 
for scientists to figure it out. “It really means we need to do 
something soon,” he says. Whether the high temperature or sea level rise 
projections turn out to be real or not, “it’s still pretty bad.”
/[clips from ] 
/https://www.sciencenews.org/article/why-climate-change-models-disagree-earth-worst-case-scenarios



/[  students define climate activism  hour long video ]/
Climate Activism
Nov 8, 2021
Oxford Climate Society
Disha Ravi - Climate Justice Activist with Fridays for Future India
Jessica Keetso - Organizer for Tò Nizhóní Ání (Sacred Water Speaks)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ja3AdF0lM7M



/[ video discussion,   "Blah, blah, blah, BANG!"  - When you hear "Comet 
danger" - it is too easy to think " runaway Climate" ]
/*DO Look up! An Update on Asteroid Defense with Astronaut Ed Lu*
Nov 19, 2021
Andrew Revkin
NASA is poised to launch the DART asteroid deflection mission and 
filmmaker Adam McKay is launching “Don’t Look Up,” a dark comedy about 
humanity’s habit of ignoring big, bad threats.

Join Andy Revkin of the Columbia Climate School in a special 
conversation on efforts to detect and deflect the Solar System’s deadly 
wanderers. His guests are former astronaut Ed Lu, a founder of B612 
Foundation and director of the new Asteroid Institute, and Danica Remy, 
executive director of B612.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdvWL57sfZg

- -

/[  see the 2:45 video trailer - https://youtu.be/RbIxYm3mKzI ]/
*DON'T LOOK UP | Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence | Official Trailer 
| Netflix*
Nov 16, 2021
Netflix
Based on real events that haven’t happened - yet. Don’t Look Up in 
select theaters December 10 and on Netflix December 24.
DON’T LOOK UP tells the story of two low-level astronomers who must go 
on a giant media tour to warn mankind of an approaching comet that will 
destroy planet Earth. Written and Directed by Adam McKay.
*https://youtu.be/RbIxYm3mKz*



/[ Clipped text,  but only 10? ]/
*Ten ways to confront the climate crisis without losing hope*
It’s easy to despair at the climate crisis, or to decide it’s already 
too late – but it’s not. Here’s how to keep the fight alive
by Rebecca Solnit
Thu 18 Nov 2021
The world as we knew it is coming to an end, and it’s up to us how it 
ends and what comes after. It’s the end of the age of fossil fuel, but 
if the fossil-fuel corporations have their way the ending will be 
delayed as long as possible, with as much carbon burned as possible. If 
the rest of us prevail, we will radically reduce our use of those fuels 
by 2030, and almost entirely by 2050. We will meet climate change with 
real change, and defeat the fossil-fuel industry in the next nine years.

If we succeed, those who come after will look back on the age of fossil 
fuel as an age of corruption and poison. The grandchildren of those who 
are young now will hear horror stories about how people once burned 
great mountains of poisonous stuff dug up from deep underground that 
made children sick and birds die and the air filthy and the planet heat up.

We must remake the world, and we can remake it better. The Covid-19 
pandemic is proof that if we take a crisis seriously, we can change how 
we live, almost overnight, dramatically, globally, digging up great 
piles of money from nowhere, like the $3tn the US initially threw at the 
pandemic.

The climate summit that just concluded in Glasgow didn’t get us there, 
though many good and even remarkable things happened. Those people who 
in many cases hardly deserve the term “leader” were pulled forward by 
what activists and real leaders from climate-vulnerable countries 
demanded; they were held back by the vested interests and their own 
attachment to the status quo and the profit to be made from continued 
destruction. As the ever-acute David Roberts put it: “Whether and how 
fast India phases out coal has nothing at all to do with what its 
diplomat says in Glasgow and everything to do with domestic Indian 
politics, which have their own logic and are only faintly affected by 
international politics.”...
- -
The emotional toll of the climate crisis has become an urgent crisis of 
its own. It’s best met, I believe, by both being well grounded in the 
facts, and working towards achieving a decent future – and by 
acknowledging there are grounds for fear, anxiety and depression in both 
the looming possibilities and in institutional inaction. What follows is 
a set of tools I’ve found useful both for the inward business of 
attending to my state of mind, and for the outward work of trying to do 
something about the climate crisis – which are not necessarily separate 
jobs.
*1. Feed your feelings on facts...*
- -
One of the curious things about the climate crisis is that the 
uninformed are often more grim and fatalistic than the experts in the 
field – the scientists, organisers and policymakers who are deep in the 
data and the politics. Too many people like to spread their despair, 
saying: “It’s too late” and “There’s nothing we can do”. These are 
excuses for doing nothing, and erase those doing something. That’s not 
what the experts say.

We still have time to choose the best rather than the worst scenarios, 
though the longer we wait the harder it gets, and the more dramatic the 
measures are required. We know what to do, and that knowledge is getting 
more refined and precise, but also more creative, all the time. The only 
obstacles are political and imaginative.
*2. Pay attention to what’s already happening...*
*- -*
...If some past victories are hard to see, it’s because there’s nothing 
left behind to see: the coal-fired plant that was never built, the 
pipeline that was stopped, the drilling that was banned, the trees that 
weren’t chopped down. As my friend Daniel Jubelirer of the Sunrise 
Project advises, if you find the sheer volume of data and issues 
overwhelming, join up, learn as you go and perhaps pick an area to master.
*3. Look beyond the individual and find good people...*
  You meet people who are hopeful, or even more than hopeful: great 
movements often begin with people fighting for things that seem all but 
impossible at the outset, whether an end to slavery, votes for women or 
rights for LGTBQ+ people.

Values and emotions are contagious, and that applies whether you’re 
hanging out with the Zapatistas or the Kardashians. I have often met 
people who think the time I have spent around progressive movements was 
pure dutifulness or dues-paying, when in fact it was a reward in itself 
– because to find idealism amid indifference and cynicism is that good.
*4. The future is not yet written*
People who proclaim with authority what is or is not going to happen 
just bolster their own sense of self and sabotage your belief in what is 
possible...
The future is not yet written. We are writing it now.
*5. Indirect consequences matter*
In September, Harvard University announced it would divest from fossil 
fuel. It took organisers 10 years to make that happen. For more than 
nine years you could have looked at the campaign as unsuccessful, even 
though it was part of a global movement that got trillions of dollars 
out of fossil-fuel investments, recast the fossil-fuel industry as 
criminal and raised ethical questions for all investors to consider...
- -
If you follow the ripples from Standing Rock, to a young woman’s 
decision to run for Congress, and the Sunrise Movement’s espousal of a 
new framework on climate action, you can see indirect change – which 
demonstrates that our actions often matter, even when we don’t achieve 
our primary goal immediately. And even if we do, the impact may be far 
more complex than we had anticipated.
*6. Imagination is a superpower*
There is a sad failure of imagination at the root of this crisis. An 
inability to perceive both the terrible and the wonderful. An inability 
to imagine how all these things are connected, how what we burn in our 
powerplants and car engines pumps out carbon dioxide that goes up into 
the sky...
- -
This is one of the remarkable things about this crisis: though the early 
climate movement emphasised austerity, a lot of what we need to give up 
is poison, destruction, injustice and devastation. The world could be 
far richer by many measures if we do what this catastrophe demands of 
us. If we don’t, catastrophes such as the violent flooding that recently 
cut off Canada’s largest port and stranded the city of Vancouver are 
reminders that the cost of addressing the crisis is dwarfed by the cost 
of not doing so.
*7. Check the facts (and watch out for liars)*
Thinking about the future requires imagination, but also precision. 
Waves of climate lies have washed over the public for decades. The age 
of climate denial is largely over, succeeded by more subtle distortions 
of the facts, and by false solutions from those who seek to benefit from 
stasis.

Oil companies are spending a lot on advertising that features outright 
lies and the hyping of minor projects or false solutions. These lies 
seek to prevent what must happen, which is that carbon must stay in the 
ground, and that everything from food production to transportation must 
change...
- -
The scale of change in the past 50 years is evidence of the power of 
movements. The nation I was born into 60 years ago had tiny lesbian and 
gay rights movements, nothing resembling a feminist movement, a 
Black-led civil rights movement whose victories mostly lay ahead, and a 
small conservation movement that had not yet morphed into an 
environmental movement – and few recognised the systemic 
interdependences at the heart of environmentalism. A lot of assumptions 
were yet to be dismantled; a lot of alternatives yet to be born.
*9. Remember the predecessors*
We are the first generations to face a catastrophe of the reach, scale 
and duration of climate change. But we are far from the first to live 
under some kind of threat, or to fear what is to come. I often think of 
those who were valiant and principled in the death camps of Nazi 
Germany. I think of my Latin American neighbours, some of whom braved 
terrifying migrations, walking across the desert for days to escape 
death squads, dictatorships and climate catastrophe. I think of the 
Indigenous people of the Americas, who already lived through the end of 
their worlds when their lands were stolen, their populations decimated 
and colonial domination disrupted their lives and cultures in every 
possible way. What it took to persevere under those conditions is almost 
unimaginable, and also all around us...
  A report that came out this summer demonstrated how powerful and 
crucial Native leadership has been for the climate movement: “Indigenous 
resistance has stopped or delayed greenhouse gas pollution equivalent to 
at least one-quarter of annual US and Canadian emissions.”
*10. Don’t neglect beauty*
Climate chaos makes us fear that we will lose what is beautiful in this 
world. I want to say that in 50 years, and 100 years, the moon will 
rise, and be beautiful, and shine its silvery light across the sea, even 
if the coastline isn’t where it used to be. In 50 years, the light on 
the mountains, and the way every raindrop on a blade of grass refracts 
light will still be beautiful. Flowers will bloom and they will be 
beautiful; children will be born, and they, too, will be beautiful.

Only when it is over will we truly see the ugliness of this era of 
fossil fuels and rampant economic inequality. Part of what we are 
fighting for is beauty, and this means giving your attention to beauty 
in the present. If you forget what you’re fighting for, you can become 
miserable, bitter and lost...
- -
I believe we now need to tell stories about how beautiful, how rich, how 
harmonious the Earth we inherited was, how beautiful its patterns were, 
and in some times and places still are, and how much we can do to 
restore this and to protect what survives. To take that beauty as a 
sacred trust, and celebrate the memory of it. Otherwise we might forget 
why we are fighting.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/18/ten-ways-confront-climate-crisis-without-losing-hope-rebecca-solnit-reconstruction-after-covid



/[ Places that must be protected  ] /
*Revealed: the places humanity must not destroy to avoid climate chaos*
Tiny proportion of world’s land surface hosts carbon-rich forests and 
peatlands that would not recover before 2050 if lost
Damian Carrington -- Environment editor   @dpcarrington
18 Nov 2021
Detailed new mapping has pinpointed the carbon-rich forests and 
peatlands that humanity cannot afford to destroy if climate catastrophe 
is to be avoided.

The vast forests and peatlands of Russia, Canada and the US are vital, 
researchers found, as are tropical forests in the Amazon, Congo and 
south-east Asia. Peat bogs in the UK and mangrove swamps and eucalyptus 
forests in Australia are also on the list.

The scientists identified 139bn tonnes (GT) of carbon in trees, plants 
and soils as “irrecoverable”, meaning that natural regeneration could 
not replace its loss by 2050, the date by which the net global carbon 
emissions must end to avoid the worst impacts of global heating. In the 
last decade alone, farming, logging and wildfires have caused the 
release of at least 4GT of irrecoverable carbon, the researchers said.
Slashing fossil fuel burning is key to ending the climate crisis but 
ending the razing of forests is also crucial. Major nations including 
Brazil, China and the US agreed to do this by 2030 at the Cop26 climate 
summit, although a similar pledge made in 2014 failed.

The Earth’s irrecoverable carbon is highly concentrated, the researchers 
showed. Half of it is found on just 3.3% of the world’s land, making 
focused conservation projects highly effective. Only half the 
irrecoverable carbon is currently in protected areas but adding 5.4% of 
the world’s land to these would secure 75% of irrecoverable carbon, they 
found.

Indigenous peoples are the best protectors of land but only a third of 
irrecoverable carbon is stored on their recognised territories. 
Irrecoverable carbon stores overlap strongly with areas of rich 
wildlife, so protecting them would also tackle the looming mass 
extinction of wildlife.

“We absolutely must protect this irrecoverable carbon to avert climate 
catastrophe – we must keep it in the ground,” said Monica Noon at 
Conservation International, the lead author of the study. “These are the 
areas that really cannot be recovered in our generation – it is our 
generation’s carbon to protect. But with irrecoverable carbon 
concentrated in a relatively small area of land, the world could protect 
the majority of these climate-essential places by 2030.”

Prof Pete Smith, at the University of Aberdeen in the UK, said: “This 
research makes a convincing case for where, and how, to focus efforts 
for the ‘30 by 30’ initiatives already in existence” to protect 30% of 
land by 2030.
The research, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, found that 
57% of irrecoverable carbon was in trees and plants and 43% was in 
soils, especially peat. Global peatlands store more carbon than tropical 
and subtropical forests, it concluded.

The tropical forests and peatlands of the Amazon are the biggest store 
of irrecoverable carbon. These were recently reported as emitting more 
carbon than they absorb. The boreal peatlands and forests of eastern 
Canada and western Siberia, and the rainforests islands of south-east 
Asia, are the next largest. The temperate rainforest of north-west North 
America, mangroves and tidal wetlands around the world, and the Congo 
basin are also major stores.

Russia hosts the biggest store of irrecoverable carbon – 23% – and has 
been hit by wildfires in recent years. Brazil is second, where Jair 
Bolsonaro’s government has allowed a sharp rise in deforestation. Canada 
is third and the US fifth: together these countries have 14% of the 
world’s irrecoverable carbon, but they have also lost forests to 
wildfires, pests and logging. The wetlands of southern Florida are 
another important store of irrecoverable carbon.

Australia is home to 2.5% of the world’s irrecoverable carbon, in its 
coastal mangroves and seagrasses as well as forests in the south-east 
and south-west, which were hit by megafires in 2019-20. In the UK, peat 
bogs cover 2m hectares and have stored 230m tonnes of irrecoverable 
carbon for millennia, but most are in poor condition.
The scientists calculated the amount and location of irrecoverable 
carbon by first identifying at high resolution those areas where direct 
human activity could damage natural ecosystems. These included forests 
and peat wetlands, but excluded permafrost regions and commercial tree 
plantations.

Next the scientists assessed the total amount of carbon stored in the 
trees, plants and soils in the included areas. Finally, they estimated 
how much carbon could be recovered by natural regeneration over 30 years 
if the forests or wetlands were destroyed.

The difference between the total carbon and recoverable carbon gave the 
amount of irrecoverable carbon. Losing this irrecoverable carbon would 
blow the carbon budget needed to have a two-thirds chance of staying 
under 1.5C of global heating.

Peatlands and mangroves are hotspots of irrecoverable carbon, due to 
their high carbon density and long recovery times of centuries or more. 
Tropical forests are less dense in carbon and regrow relatively fast, 
but remain critical because of the very large areas they cover.

The scientists said protecting irrecoverable carbon must involve 
strengthening the rights of indigenous peoples, ending the policies that 
enable destruction and expanding protected areas.

Rob Field, a conservation scientist at the RSPB in the UK, said: 
“Protection of irrecoverable carbon, coupled with widespread 
decarbonisation of the world’s economies, will make a safe climate more 
likely, at the same time as conserving important areas for biodiversity.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/18/revealed-the-places-humanity-must-not-destroy-to-avoid-climate-chaos



[The news archive - looking back]
*On this day in the history of global warming November  20, 2005*
November 20, 2005: TBS airs "Earth to America," a two-hour 
climate-awareness special executive-produced by Laurie David, featuring 
Larry David, Bill Maher, Tom Hanks, Steve Martin and Leonardo DiCaprio, 
among others.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/19/arts/television/19eart.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/


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