[✔️] August 13, 2022 - Global Warming News Digest
Richard Pauli
Richard at CredoandScreed.com
Sat Aug 13 11:26:12 EDT 2022
/*August 13, 2022*/
/[ NPR suggest more than an umbrella for this storm ] /
*A cataclysmic flood is coming for California. Climate change makes it
more likely.*
August 12, 2022
Nathan Rott...
- -
They found that existing climate change — the warming that's already
happened since 1862 — makes it twice as likely that a similar scale
flood occurs today. In future, hotter scenarios, the storm systems grow
more frequent and more intense. End-of-the-century storms, they found,
could generate 200-400 percent more runoff in the Sierra Nevada
Mountains than now.
Future iterations of the research, Swain says, will focus on what that
increased intensity means on the ground — what areas will flood and for
how long.
The last report to model what an ARkStorm scenario would look like was
published in 2011. It found that the scale of the flooding and the
economic fallout would affect every part of the state and cause three
times as much damage as a 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault.
Relief efforts would be complicated by road closures and infrastructure
damage. Economic fallout would be felt globally.
Swain says that California has been behind the curve in dealing with
massive climate-fueled wildfires, and can't afford to lag on floods too.
"We still have some amount of time to prepare for catastrophic flood risks."
https://www.npr.org/2022/08/12/1117161878/a-cataclysmic-flood-is-coming-for-california-climate-change-makes-it-more-likely
- -
/[ see a video]/
*This is ARkStorm*
This is a short film describing the ARkStorm Scenario by director, Theo
Alexopolous, and DesignMatters, Art Center College of Design in
Pasadena. The ARkStorm Scenario, led by the USGS and more than 100
scientists and experts from varied disciplines, details impacts of a
scientifically plausible storm similar to the Great California Storm of
1861-62 in the modern day. The scenario led to several important
scientific advancements and will be used by emergency and resource
managers to improve partnerships and emergency preparedness. The
ARkStorm Overview: pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/
https://vimeo.com/19012969
- -
/[ see the science behind the prediction ]/
*ARkStorm Scenario*
A modeled scenario of U.S. West Coast winter storm events induced by the
formation of Atmospheric Rivers (AR) and capable of causing massive and
devastating flooding.
The key findings from the full ARkStorm Scenario report are summarized
below:
*1 Megastorms are California's other Big One.* A severe California
winter storm could realistically flood thousands of square miles of
urban and agricultural land, result in thousands of landslides,
disrupt lifelines throughout the state for days or weeks, and cost
on the order of $725 billion. This figure is more than three times
that estimated for the ShakeOut scenario earthquake, that has
roughly the same annual occurrence probability as an ARkStorm-like
event. The $725 billion figure comprises approximately $400 billion
in property damage and $325 billion in business-interruption losses.
An event like the *ARkStorm could require the evacuation of
1,500,000 people.* Because the flood depths in some areas could
realistically be on the order of 10-20 ft, without effective
evacuation there could be substantial loss of life.
*2 An ARkStorm would be a statewide disaster*. Extensive flooding is
deemed realistic in the California Central Valley, San Francisco
Bayshore, San Diego, Los Angeles and Orange Counties, several
coastal communities, and various riverine communities around the
state. Both because of its large geographic size and the state's
economic interdependencies, an ARkStorm would affect all California
counties and all economic sectors.
*3 An ARkStorm could produce an economic catastrophe.* 25% of
buildings in the state could experience some degree of flooding in a
single severe storm. Only perhaps 12% of California property is
insured, so millions of building owners may have limited or no
ability to pay for repairs. That degree of damage would threaten
California with a long-term reduction in economic activity, and
raise insurance rates statewide - perhaps nationwide or more -
afterwards.
*4 An ARkStorm is plausible, perhaps inevitable.* Such storms have
happened in California's historic record (1861-62), but 1861-62 is
not a freak event, not the last time the state will experience such
a severe storm, and not the worst case. The geologic record shows 6
megastorms more severe than 1861-1862 in California in the last 1800
years, and there is no reason to believe similar events won't occur
again.
*5 The ARkStorm is to some extent predictable. *Unlike for
earthquakes, we have the capability to partially predict key aspects
of the geophysical phenomena that would create damages in the days
before an ARkStorm strikes. Enhancing the accuracy, lead time, and
the particular measures that these systems can estimate is a great
challenge scientifically and practically.
*6 Californian flood protection is not designed for an ARkStorm-like
event.* Much has been done to protect the state from future
flooding, but the state's flood-protection system is not perfect.
The existing systems are designed among other things to protect
major urban areas from fairly rare, extreme flooding. The level of
protection varies: some places are protected from flooding that only
occurs on average once every 75 years; others, on average every 200
years. But the levees are not intended to prevent all flooding, such
as the 500-year streamflows that are deemed realistic throughout
much of the state in ARkStorm.
*7Planning for ARkStorm would complement planning for earthquakes.*
The ShakeOut exercise has become an annual activity in California,
with more than 7 million people participating each year. Many of the
same emergency preparations are useful for a severe winter storm:
laying in emergency food and water, shelter preparations, exercising
emergency corporate communications, testing mutual aid agreements,
and so on.
See This is ARkStorm video. https://vimeo.com/19012969
https://www.usgs.gov/programs/science-application-for-risk-reduction/science/arkstorm-scenario?items_per_page=6
/[ DW delivers news ]/
*Serious drought hitting Europe, wider world — updates*
Much of Europe and the Northern Hemisphere is battling either wildfires,
low water levels, harvest warnings, water use restrictions or a mixture
of all these. DW rounds up the situation.
Around much of the Northern Hemisphere, from Hungary to Hawaii, from the
drying Rhine River to the now-recovering Rio Grande, or from Casablanca
to California, summer droughts and high temperatures are having a
serious impact on everything from agriculture to the freight industry.
Here's a rundown of some of the latest drought-related developments from
around the world, plus a window to more bespoke coverage on DW. We will
continue adding to this story after publication.
*Germany —* Logistics operator to stop most barge operations on Upper
and Middle Rhine
Due to low water level, the German container logistics company Contargo
is suspending most of its inland shipping operations on the Upper and
Middle Rhine.
Since no significant rainfall is expected in the coming days, the
company expects the Kaub Gauge level to fall below 40 cm (15,7 inches)
from this coming weekend.
"Then our barges will not be able to sail without danger, and for
reasons of safety we shall have to largely discontinue our navigation on
the Upper and Middle Rhine," Contargo said in a statement on the
company's website.
*Germany — *Farmers' organization issues harvest warning
The president of the German Farmers' Association, Joachim Rukwied,
warned on Friday that without imminent rain, this year's harvests could
be severely affected by the late-summer heat wave.
He added that the combined issues of inflation and the conflict in
Ukraine were exacerbating the situation even for farmers in Western
Europe, hundreds or thousands of kilometers from the front lines.
"At the moment we are fighting on many fronts," Rukwied told German news
agency dpa. "Fertilizer prices are four times higher than they were a
year ago. Energy prices are twice as high. Feed prices have risen."
Rukwied said that "if it does not rain thoroughly and soon, then we fear
harvest yields could be reduced by as much as 30% or 40%."
The 2022 grain harvest was proceeding largely according to plan, Rukwied
said, but crops harvested later in the year such as potatoes and sugar
beet were at particular risk and might end up costing more as a result.
Rukwied also warned of the effect on farmers' own winter reserves. With
grass in much of the country brown — "absolutely nothing is regrowing" —
some farmers were already having to feed livestock from stocks set aside
for winter, as they are unable to cut any fresh food from fallow fields.
A field of dried-out, withering sunflowers in Anduze, southern France,
near Montpellier, pictured on August 11.
In Anduze, evidence of the scorching heat could be seen in the fields,
with even sunflowers withering due to lack of water
*France —* Vast fire in the west, rivers and lakes run dry
Firefighters from six EU members started to arrive in France on Friday
to help battle a series of wildfires, most notably a fierce blaze in the
southwest that has forced thousands from their homes.
You can read the full story -
https://www.dw.com/en/european-firefighters-rush-to-frances-aid-as-wildfires-rage/a-62781173.
In total, 361 foreign firefighters have rushed to the aid of their
French colleagues, the first contingent of 65 arriving from neighboring
Germany.
In the southwestern Burgundy region, the Tille River in the village of
Lux dried up completely, revealing thousands of dead fish in a wide trench.
France has been forced to impose various water usage restrictions
nationwide during the summer.
The conditions are also affecting the nuclear-powered country's
electricity supply. France's vast fleet of low-carbon nuclear power
plants rely on river water for cooling, and several plants have had to
be shut down as a result. France has taken the unusual step of importing
electricity from its neighbors, and its baseload electricity price hit a
record high earlier in the week.
- -
*Drought-hit France rations water*
Hungary — Danube drying up, harvest to exacerbate inflation
Water levels on the Danube River have been dipping toward critical
levels in recent weeks, while parts of Lake Velence, to the southwest of
Budapest, dried up entirely this week (see image at top of article).
The deputy governor of Hungary's central bank, Barnabas Virag, has
warned that the lengthy period of drought, coupled with the impact of
the war in Ukraine on global food supply, could push food prices higher
in the coming months and exacerbate the existing inflationary pressures
facing the country.
*UK — Thames source experiencing unprecedented lack of water*
Amid its driest spell of weather in well over a century, the UK is
introducing a hosepipe ban in some parts of the country, while the
source of the River Thames is experiencing an unprecedented lack of water.
Meanwhile, the British government said that parts of southern, central
and eastern England had officially moved into drought status.
*The Met Office — the UK's national weather service *— has already
declared last month the driest for England since 1935, with average
rainfall at 23.1 millimeters (0.9 inches), while some regions
experienced their driest July ever.
*EU:* Record fire activity in southwest Europe in 2022
Fires that have scorched tens of thousands of hectares of wooded areas
in France, Spain and Portugal have made 2022 a record-breaking year for
wildfire activity in southwestern Europe, the EU's Copernicus Atmosphere
Monitoring Service (CAMS) said Friday.
Amid a heatwave that saw temperature records set across the continent,
the bloc's satellite monitoring service said that France had in the last
three months reached the highest levels of carbon pollution from
wildfires since records began in 2003.
It comes in the wake of Spain registering its highest ever wildfire
carbon emissions in July.
*Hawaii wildfire burns across more than 15 square miles *
A wildfire in a rural part of Hawaii's Big Island is not yet threatening
residential- areas, but high winds and dry conditions are making it
difficult for fire crews to contain the blaze.
The fire started in the western reaches of the United States Army's
Pohakuloa Training Area, which is above the town of Waikoloa and in
between the volcanoes of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea.
As of Thursday, the blaze had scorched more than 15 square miles
(roughly 39 square kilometers) of land.
- -
*In the Netherlands, *dikes often made of peat protect the low-lying
country's agriculture and homes during times when water's more
plentifully available. But these structures are also at risk in the
extreme heat. Find out why.
*Spain *might be no stranger to hotter summers by European standards,
but it too is facing temperatures and water levels that threaten some of
its core crops like olives and avocados. Here's more from Madrid from
DW's Ralph Schulze.
- -
Returning to Germany, one core focus of the drought is the Rhine River,
which ultimately connects the Alps with the North Sea. Europe's
second-longest river after the Danube, it is also a core shipping lane
for western Germany. It is still open to freight traffic for now, but
already boats are unable to run fully laden. Germany's Federal Institute
of Hydrology warned on Thursday that without rain, one notorious shallow
point on the river could become completely impassable next week.
https://www.dw.com/en/serious-drought-hitting-europe-wider-world-updates/a-62786406
/[ A report from the Park ]/
*Ranger Jake describes the damage in Yellowstone National Park caused by
the June 13 flooding*
Bill Gabbert -- August 11, 2022
Yellowstone National Park released a video yesterday describing the
massive damage to the park’s infrastructure that occurred June 13 when
unseasonably warm weather, melting snow, and very heavy rain produced
widespread flooding across the north end of the park. Yellowstone
Digital Communications Specialist, Jake Frank, gives his first-hand
account of the 500-year flood event.
video --
https://www.nps.gov/media/video/view.htm?id=BF2DBBD0-1E62-42AE-AA63-8EA254057F84
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Description-of-June-13-2022-flood-in-Yellowstone-National-Park.jpg
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Description-of-June-13-2022-flood-in-Yellowstone-National-Park-2.jpg
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Description-of-June-13-2022-flood-in-Yellowstone-National-Park-3.jpg
https://wildfiretoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Description-of-June-13-2022-flood-in-Yellowstone-National-Park-4.jpg
https://wildfiretoday.com/2022/08/11/ranger-jake-describes-the-damage-in-yellowstone-national-park-caused-by-the-june-13-flooding/
/[ A recent Sunday sermon at the First Unitarian Church of Hobart,
Indiana ]/
*Parenting and Grandparenting in Contracting, Crazy-Making Times - Dowd*
Aug 10, 2022 Zoom sermon delivered by Rev. Michael Dowd on July 31,
2022, to First Unitarian Church of Hobart (the oldest Unitarian Church
in Indiana, and the oldest church still occupied by its original
congregation in the city of Hobart). https://youtu.be/jAmMeD2FOps
FYI... "In Contracting, Crazy-Making Times" is a euphemism for "in the
context of already underway and utterly out-of-our-control biospheric
and civilizational collapse".
Much more along these lines here: https://postdoom.com/resources/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAmMeD2FOps
/[The news archive - looking back]/
/*August 13, 2015*/
August 13, 2015:
The Los Angeles Times reports:
"In another sign that El Niño is gaining strength and could soak
California this winter, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean
have increased to their highest level so far this year.
"That temperature increase — 3.4 degrees Fahrenheit above the average —
was recorded Aug. 5 by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction
Center at a benchmark location in the Pacific. That is slightly higher
than it was Aug. 6, 1997, when it was 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
"The summer of 1997 was the prelude to the largest El Niño event on
record. Storms that winter brought widespread flooding and mudslides,
causing 17 deaths and more than half a billion dollars of damage.
Downtown L.A. got nearly a year's worth of rain in February 1998."
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-el-nino-20150813-story.html
The Los Angeles Times also reports:
"President Obama will become the first sitting commander in chief to
visit the Alaskan Arctic, the White House announced Thursday, the latest
in a string of stops this summer that have been presidential firsts.
"In a trip from Aug. 31 to Sept. 3, Obama will visit the state's rapidly
melting glaciers and meet with hunters and fishermen whose livelihoods
are threatened by global warming as he seeks to draw attention to his
fight against climate change."
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-obama-alaska-20150813-story.html
http://youtu.be/igaz_hm7zKM
=======================================
*Mass media is lacking, here are a few daily summariesof global warming
news - email delivered*
=========================================================
**Inside Climate News*
Newsletters
We deliver climate news to your inbox like nobody else. Every day or
once a week, our original stories and digest of the web’s top headlines
deliver the full story, for free.
https://insideclimatenews.org/
---------------------------------------
**Climate Nexus* https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/*
Delivered straight to your inbox every morning, Hot News summarizes the
most important climate and energy news of the day, delivering an
unmatched aggregation of timely, relevant reporting. It also provides
original reporting and commentary on climate denial and pro-polluter
activity that would otherwise remain largely unexposed. 5 weekday
=================================
*Carbon Brief Daily https://www.carbonbrief.org/newsletter-sign-up*
Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon Brief
sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to thousands of
subscribers around the world. The email is a digest of the past 24 hours
of media coverage related to climate change and energy, as well as our
pick of the key studies published in the peer-reviewed journals.
more at https://www.getrevue.co/publisher/carbon-brief
==================================
*T*he Daily Climate *Subscribe https://ehsciences.activehosted.com/f/61*
Get The Daily Climate in your inbox - FREE! Top news on climate impacts,
solutions, politics, drivers. Delivered week days. Better than coffee.
Other newsletters at https://www.dailyclimate.org/originals/
/-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------/
/Archive of Daily Global Warming News
<https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote/2017-October/date.html>
/
https://pairlist10.pair.net/pipermail/theclimate.vote
/To receive daily mailings - click to Subscribe
<mailto:subscribe at theClimate.Vote?subject=Click%20SEND%20to%20process%20your%20request>
to news digest./
Privacy and Security:*This mailing is text-only. It does not carry
images or attachments which may originate from remote servers. A
text-only message can provide greater privacy to the receiver and
sender. This is a hobby production curated by Richard Pauli
By regulation, the .VOTE top-level domain cannot be used for commercial
purposes. Messages have no tracking software.
To subscribe, email: contact at theclimate.vote
<mailto:contact at theclimate.vote> with subject subscribe, To Unsubscribe,
subject: unsubscribe
Also you may subscribe/unsubscribe at
https://pairlist10.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/theclimate.vote
Links and headlines assembled and curated by Richard Pauli for
http://TheClimate.Vote <http://TheClimate.Vote/> delivering succinct
information for citizens and responsible governments of all levels. List
membership is confidential and records are scrupulously restricted to
this mailing list.
More information about the theClimate.Vote
mailing list