[✔️] July 18, 2022 - Daily Global Warming News Digest

[Richard Pauli]

/*July 18, 2022*/

/[ powerful image of heat weather system ]/
*The intensity of the heat lifting north out of Spain & Portugal is 
simply staggering.*
https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1548270683011948550

- -

/[ an astounding photograph 
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2022/07/16/world/16europe-heat-france-fire-top-01/merlin_210071910_bddae7be-29f0-48e3-94e6-24d38c73ba76-superJumbo.jpg?quality=75&auto=webp 
] /

*Wildfires, and a Heat Wave, Sweep Across Europe*
July 16, 2022
Aurelien Breeden and Isabella Kwai

Crews in the south of France were battling wildfires on Saturday that 
had consumed more than 22,000 acres and prompted the evacuation of 
12,000 people, the local authorities said.

The wildfires are among dozens across Europe, driven by a heat wave that 
has gripped parts of the continent and threatens to bring 
record-breaking temperatures to Britain early next week.

The most serious fires in France were in the Gironde area, near the city 
of Bordeaux, where more than 1,200 firefighters had been deployed...

“We are going through an exceptionally harsh season,” President Emmanuel 
Macron said on Friday in Paris. “We already have three times more burned 
forests than in 2020.”

Météo France, the national weather forecaster, predicted temperatures of 
at least 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) on the country’s 
Atlantic coast from Sunday to Tuesday.

Firefighters have also been battling dozens of blazes in Greece, 
Portugal and Spain, which has faced unusually high temperatures.

“Obviously, the longer the heat wave, the greater the repercussions as 
far as the issue of forest fires, and also on people’s health,” said 
Rubén del Campo, a spokesman for Spain’s metereological agency.

A sanitation worker in Madrid died on Saturday after suffering from heat 
stroke the day before, a city employee said.

The highest temperature officially recorded in Britain was 38.7 degrees 
Celsius in July 2019, according to the national weather service, the Met 
Office.

Heat waves in Europe have increased in frequency and intensity over the 
past four decades, and a study published this month found that the 
changes were happening faster in the region than in other parts of the 
world, including hot spots like the Western United States.

A heat wave in Europe in 2003 killed 15,000 people in France, many of 
them older residents who lived in homes without air-conditioning. 
/[other sources put the number at 73,000 people across Europe ] / No 
deaths have been reported in France during this most recent heat wave.

Climate scientists have said that global warming is making extreme 
temperatures more common, but they are investigating whether specific 
weather events are intensifying or becoming more likely because of 
human-induced warming of the climate.

“Climate change has already influenced the likelihood of temperature 
extremes in the U.K.,” Nikos Christidis, a climate attribution scientist 
at the Met Office, said in a news release, adding that the likelihood of 
experiencing such record-breaking heat in Britain had already increased 
and would continue.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/16/world/europe/uk-europe-heat-wave.html

- -

[ fast talking, informative, YouTube weathercaster ]
*A Historic Heat Wave Is Coming, Massive Worldwide Impacts, Next Storm 
Growing…*
Jul 17, 2022  New Merch & Weather Radios. : https://shopryanhall.com/
Get a deal that matches these temperatures 10% off store wide with Code 
: Summer10
In this video we are talking about a record breaking heat wave, severe 
weather across the US, and the tropics!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TA3ckZKk9w8



/[ ABC tries, but Bernie Sanders gives a great rant  ] /
*Joe Manchin is 'intentionally sabotaging the president's agenda': 
Bernie Sanders*
The West Virginia senator recently scuttled legislation on climate change.
ByTal Axelrod
July 17, 2022
Sen. Bernie Sanders on Sunday castigated Sen. Joe Manchin after the West 
Virginia Democrat said he wouldn’t support legislation focused on 
climate change and tax changes, citing his concerns over high inflation.

Manchin is "intentionally sabotaging the president’s agenda, what the 
American people want, what a majority of us in the Democratic caucus 
want. Nothing new about this," Sanders, I-Vt., told ABC "This Week" 
co-anchor Martha Raddatz. "And the problem was that we continue to talk 
to Manchin like he was serious. He was not."

"When Manchin sabotages climate change, this is the future generations 
what's going on right now," Sanders said. "In the West, all over the 
world, we’re looking at significantly increased -- more and more heat 
waves. You’d have to look at more flooding. This is an existential 
threat to humanity."...
- -
Raddatz pressed Sanders on whether Biden's discussions with bin Salman 
made sense in light of high gas prices, but Sanders argued that action 
around what he called corporate greed could make a bigger difference at 
the pump.

"At the heart of the discussions was oil, and President Biden said the 
Saudis would take action in the coming weeks. Could that make a 
difference, and doesn't that explain why he went? What would you have 
done?" Raddatz asked.
"One of the things we've got to look at is the fact that while Americans 
are paying $4.50, $4.80 for a gallon of gas, the oil company profits in 
the last quarter have been extraordinarily high," he said. "And I happen 
to believe that we've got to tell the oil companies to stop ripping off 
the American people. And if they don't, we should impose a windfall 
profits tax on them."
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sanders-manchin-intentionally-sabotaging-presidents-agenda/story?id=86941518


/[  a fresh new conversation -- audio ] /
*A Wierd, Wonderful Conversation With Kim Stanley Robinson*
The sci-fi giant explains why he's feeling more hopeful about the planet
Produced by ‘The Ezra Klein Show’  - -  July 15, 2022
Kim Stanley Robinson is one of the great living science fiction writers 
and one of the most astute observers of how planets look, feel and work. 
His Mars Trilogy imagined what it might be like for humans to settle on 
the red planet. His best-selling novel “The Ministry for the Future” is 
a masterful effort at envisioning what might happen to Earth in a future 
of unchecked climate change. Robinson has a rare command of both science 
and human nature, and his writing crystallizes how the two must work 
together if we are to rescue our collective planetary future from 
possible ruin.
[You can listen to this episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” on Apple, 
Spotify, Amazon Music, Google or wherever you get your podcasts.]
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-kim-stanley-robinson.html/
/

/
/


/[  a classic talk from 2019 ] /
*Earth at 2° hotter will be horrific. Now here’s what 4° will look like. 
| David Wallace-Wells*
Mar 14, 2019  Earth at 2° hotter will be horrific. Now here’s what 4° 
will look like.
- -
The best-case scenario of climate change is that world gets just 2°C 
hotter, which scientists call the "threshold of catastrophe".

Why is that the good news? Because if humans don't change course now, 
the planet is on a trajectory to reach 4°C at the end of this century, 
which would bring $600 trillion in global climate damages, double the 
warfare, and a refugee crisis 100x worse than the Syrian exodus.

David Wallace-Wells explains what would happen at an 8°C and even 13°C 
increase. These predictions are horrifying, but should not scare us into 
complacency. "It should make us focus on them more intently," he says.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

DAVID WALLACE-WELLS:

David Wallace-Wells is a national fellow at the New America foundation 
and a columnist and deputy editor at New York magazine. He was 
previously the deputy editor of The Paris Review. He lives in New York City.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

TRANSCRIPT:

DAVID WALLACE-WELLS: Well, I think when we look outside our windows 
every day, we see a world that is basically stable, and even if we hear 
a lot about extreme weather, see horrible news of wildfires and droughts 
and heat waves that kill people all around the world, we still reorient 
our emotional expectations for what the world will be like in our own 
lives. And most of our lives have not been yet all that dramatically 
disturbed by climate change. But in the decades ahead, I think they will 
be. There's basically no life on Earth that will be untouched by the 
force of climate in the decades ahead, and in most cases, that means 
deformed, damaged, transformed.

I think most scientists would say that the best case scenario is 1.5 
degrees Celsius of warming. But personally, I think it'll be practically 
impossible for us to stay below two degrees without what's called 
negative emissions technology, which is fanciful tech that has been 
tested and is successful at a lab scale, but needs to be deployed at 
global scale to make much of a difference. The UN says that to have any 
chance of staying below two degrees, we need massive use of this 
technology, which we don't even know enough to trust. So for me, I 
orient my best case scenario at two degrees. And unfortunately, that's a 
level of warming that most scientists describe as the threshold of a 
catastrophe. Many island nations of the world describe it as genocide. 
That's how vulnerable they are to especially sea level rise at two 
degrees. But the impacts wouldn't just affect the island nations of the 
world. Many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East 
would be lethally hot in summer at two degrees, which could happen as 
soon as 2050. These are cities like Calcutta 5, 10, 12 million people. 
You wouldn't be able to go outside or certainly work outside without 
incurring a lethal risk. And that could happen, again, just by 2050, 
which is one reason why the UN expects that we could have 200 million 
climate refugees by that same date, 2050. 200 million. They think it's 
possible that we get as many as one billion, which is as many people as 
live today in North and South America, combined. I don't think those 
numbers are realistic. I think they're too high. But even if we get 100 
million or 150 million climate refugees, it's important to remember that 
the Syrian refugee crisis, which totally destabilized European politics, 
led in its way to Brexit, and has transformed our politics globally 
through the way it's affected Europe, was the result of just one million 
Syrian refugees coming to the continent. We're talking about a refugee 
crisis that is almost certain to be 100 times as large, and it comes at 
a time when most nations of the world are retreating from our 
commitments to one another, retreating from our organizations and 
alliances, retreating from the UN, retreating from the EU, and embracing 
xenophobia and nativism and nationalism. That's especially concerning 
when you think about what's ahead, because there are going to be many 
more people in much more desperate need in the decades ahead. And if we 
don't welcome them, we'll be committing real moral crimes that from the 
advantage of today seem unconscionable, but which may become more 
normal, as we move forward into this new transformed world.

When we talk about worst case scenarios, there are a couple of different 
factors at play. One is what humans do. This is the most important factor...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17aE91SBMoY


/[ Criticizing the National Weather Service for defining climate as 
coming from precisely 30 years of weather.   So with rapidly changing 
global warming - where all the records have been set in the last 10 or 
15 years --  we are UNDERESTIMATING our rate of climate change because 
we use 30 year average ]/
*The National Weather Service Is Unwittingly Obscuring Reality of Global 
Warming*
Bruce Melton, Truthout
PUBLISHED - July 17, 2022
Today’s 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) average global 
temperature rise above preindustrial levels is now as warm as any time 
in the last 10,000 years. It is three times warmer than the average 
temperature for the last 2,000 years, the period when the Earth systems 
our advanced civilization depends upon evolved. These systems are things 
like the Amazon, boreal forests, permafrost, a stable sea level, ice 
sheets, sea ice and the Gulf Stream. This relatively small amount of 
warming may not seem like much, but only 5 degrees Celsius (10 degrees 
Fahrenheit) separates the deepest of Ice-Age cold from our previous climate.

Some of the latest science tells us that half of known climate-tipping 
systems have activated their collapses since about 2009. A tipping point 
is crossed when a small change creates a big outcome — like leaning over 
in a small boat too far and suddenly going for a swim. Fundamentally, 
Earth’s temperature has risen above the evolutionary boundaries of these 
systems, and their collapse thresholds have been crossed.

The Amazon rainforest, Canadian forests and global permafrost are three 
Earth systems now in tipping collapse. They have flipped from carbon 
sequestration to emissions with greenhouse gas emissions of plausibly 
seven gigatons per year. This is as much as all global emissions from 
transportation.

These collapses were activated with warming of 0.5 to 0.75 degrees 
Celsius (0.9 to 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal from the late 19th 
century, when the last 2,000 years our world’s average temperature was 
no warmer than 0.4 degree Celsius (0.75 degree Fahrenheit) above the 
late 19th century. But the averages themselves are misleading. For 
example, warming over land is twice what it is over oceans. High 
temperatures are another example of why today’s averages are misleading.

For example, in Austin, Texas, where I live, the average high 
temperatures in September from 2017 to 2020 were 5.3 degrees Fahrenheit 
warmer than between 1966 and 1969. In other words, the normal high in 
early September, that was 93 degrees Fahrenheit in our “previous 
climate” (circa 1900), is 98 degrees Fahrenheit today. One would think 
this kind of warming would have made the headlines in recent years, but 
this is not the case, and there is a good reason. The National Weather 
Service (NWS) has a long-standing and little-known statistical weather 
data procedure that inadvertently helps promote the denial of global 
climate disruption.

The “normal” temperatures the NWS reports are averages of the last 30 
years. This is the data broadcast on the weather report on the news 
every night. These so-called normal temperatures are not at all the 
temperatures from our previous climate. They are not from a time before 
our climate began to unnaturally warm. What we hear as “normal” from our 
faithful weather professionals is actually significantly warmer for most 
of us, has nothing to do with what most of us think of as “normal” and 
has nothing to do with our previous climate where our advanced 
civilization evolved.

Going back to my home state as an example, extremely warm temperatures 
in Texas in December 2021 broke the 1933 monthly average temperature 
record by an astonishing 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit. Normally, monthly 
average temperature records are broken by less than a degree or two 
Fahrenheit in a stable climate; in our previous normal climate. Across 
Texas, the high temperature was 12 degrees Fahrenheit above the state 
20th-century high temperature average for December. Austin’s December 
average high temperature was 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit above the 30-year 
normal.

The statistical procedure to change the normal temperature data is known 
in professional circles as the “30-year normal,” or the climatological 
normals, but among the public, this weather data is known as our 
“normal” weather. The reason for this data manipulation began in the 
1930s, with agriculture and as the need for historic climate data 
increased and spread into other industries.

The idea here was to supply agricultural and industrial communities with 
the latest and most accurate weather data related to temperatures, heat 
waves, first and last freezes, hours below freezing, peak temperature 
per day/week/month/year, all sorts of precipitation records, etc. The 
justification of the NWS for this deliberate manipulation of weather 
data is, “a better understanding of what is happening today. Rather than 
assess long-term climate trends, Normals (sic) reflect the impacts of 
the changing climate on our day-to-day weather experience.”

This strategy of changing the “normal” data for scientific accuracy 
worked well when our climate was stationary (not changing radically), 
and when a hugely significant portion of our population needed to know 
so they could successfully grow food for us all. But today is 
definitively not like the past. What the NWS is doing by warming the 
so-called “normal” temperatures hides global climate disruption in the 
minds of the public. “Normal climate” today is not the average of the 
last 30 years; it is what our climate was before it began to radically warm.

So, what is “normal” then? Climate science defines two major “normal” 
periods. One is “pre-industrial times.” This is the period between 1850 
and 1900 and is the baseline for our stable climate before we began to 
massively emit greenhouse gasses. The other period is 1951 to 1980. The 
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration describes this period as 
that time “when many of today’s adults grew up, so it is a common 
reference that many people can remember.”

The 2,000 years prior to the pre-industrial period of 1850 to 1900 is 
quite meaningful. During this 2,000 years, Earth’s temperature was very 
stable at no warmer than 0.4 degrees Celsius (0.7 degrees Fahrenheit) 
above the 1850 to 1900 average for almost the entire 2,000 years. This 
makes our 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal current warming three times 
warmer than the maximum of the last 2,000 years. This 0.4 degrees 
Celsius-maximum temperature range represents the upper boundary of the 
climate where our current Earth systems evolved. It’s also known as the 
“natural variation” of our climate. It represents the evolutionary 
boundary of our Earth’s systems.

We have warmed Earth above the evolutionary boundaries of its systems, 
and they are in collapse so they can re-evolve with species and 
mechanisms that are tolerant of the new climate. This collapse, or 
excursion beyond the normal, is evident in the nonlinear increase of 
climate and weather extremes we have all witnessed or endured recently.

Collapse of these systems is directly related to climate tipping where 
Earth system collapses result in loss and even reversal of environmental 
services. Environmental services are things or processes our ecologies 
or Earth systems supply us with or do for us, like forest products for 
building materials or oxygen generation from plants. One of the most 
important and easily degraded environmental services is carbon 
sequestration, or the ability of our Earth systems to absorb carbon 
dioxide. This sequestration is reversed with these tipping collapses as 
we are now seeing in the Amazon, Canadian forests, and permafrost and 
their plausible emissions of seven gigatons of greenhouse gasses per 
year. Very importantly, these are just the first system collapses to be 
studied. Similar systems across the globe are likely in collapse too, 
and the collapses have just begun.

The public needs to know how much warming has occurred so we can make 
realistic decisions about climate change. Americans trust weather 
professionals on climate change. Our television weather persons are the 
ones that provide the vast majority of us with what is our best and most 
trustworthy information about climate change. However, through their 
standard professional procedures, though no fault of their own, they are 
masking evidence of global climate warming.

Today in Austin, the summer (June through August) five-year average high 
temperature has warmed 6 degrees Fahrenheit, the 10-year average summer 
high temperature has warmed 5 degrees Fahrenheit, but the 30-year NWS 
“normal” has warmed only 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This 30-year averaging 
procedure not only masks warming, it understates it, too.

Think about what this means to the reporting of heat waves. As the NWS 
warms the “normal” temperatures, the heat wave diminishes in relative 
extremeness to us poor, sweltering humans, and we don’t even realize 
that the NWS has created a stifling understatement through their 
long-held data reporting standards.

There is a valid and urgent need to use a much shorter averaging period. 
Warming is not going to self-restore, it is only going to continue 
warming nonlinearly, like it has been doing for the last hundred years.

Our historical normal temperatures (not the NWS “normals”) are from the 
time when our advanced civilization evolved; they come from the climate 
that created humankind as we know it. This climate definitively does not 
include the temperature “normals” of the last 30 years presented by the 
NWS to broadcast to the entire United States population. Our true normal 
temperatures are what the temperatures were back in the late-19th 
century before our greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and land 
use changes began to substantially warm Earth.

When historic weather statistics are removed from daily weather 
communications and replaced with statistics that are warmer and warmer 
every 10 years, the results are that the public’s awareness of global 
climate disruption is damaged, degraded, or simply erased.

Even more damaging, the same weather person that tells us the current 
much-warmed temperatures are normal, also tells us that, yes, our 
climate is warming.

This confusion, imperceptible to almost all of us, creates distrust, 
disbelief and loss of credibility with our weather professionals. What 
does this do to the public’s perception of climate change? When our 
weather people tell us our daily temperatures are normal, then they tell 
us climate change is a real problem, what are we to believe? How many 
citizens understand this is going on — that the “normal temperatures” 
delivered on the weather report every night are not normal? Loss of 
climate change awareness feeds the narrative that climate change is 
either not real or is not meaningful.

To see the warming, the public must see the difference between our 
climate today and our climate in the past.

Today, our population is no longer significantly agrarian-based; nowhere 
close. In 1900, just under 40 percent of Americans lived on farms; 
today, around 1 percent live on farms. The industrialists that need this 
information are an exceedingly small proportion of our population. Those 
that need this kind of up-to-date weather data can easily get it from 
the NWS or others, but the rest of us need to know what “normal climate” 
really means.
The climate has warmed — a lot. It’s not normal. None of it is natural. 
Most of the warming has been recent, with two-thirds in the last 30 
years, and half in the last 20 years, and the rate of warming is still 
increasing. With this warming comes nonlinearly increasing extremes and 
Earth systems tipping collapses. The average global temperature today is 
now three times warmer than the climate where our Earth systems evolved, 
these systems are now collapsing, and the collapses do not stabilize 
unless the temperature is lowered to below the tipping threshold.

When there is no threat of irreversible and societally decimating 
scenarios from an artificially warmed climate, sure, recalculate the 
normals. But when awareness of global warming is more critical than ever 
before, this practice of recalculating the normals is existentially 
dangerous.

It is now profoundly important this policy of changing the “normals” be 
eliminated. The NWS is purposefully warming the normal temperature 
statistics as our climate warms. They are doing this because it is a 
habit from the past; a habit whose time must come to end.
https://truthout.org/articles/the-national-weather-service-is-unwittingly-obscuring-reality-of-global-warming/



/[The news archive - looking back two decades ago ]
//*July 18, 2002*/
July 18, 2002: USA Today reports:

"Democratic attorneys general from 11 states accused the Bush 
administration Wednesday of ignoring global warming and favoring energy 
policies that will boost greenhouse gas emissions.

"White House spokesman Scott McClellan responded by saying the president 
was working on a 'bipartisan, commonsense approach to address climate 
change.'

"In their letter to Bush, the attorneys general denounced the 
administration's climate change policy, arguing that states have been 
left to address a global problem with a patchwork of inconsistent 
regulations. They said Bush has failed to create a national plan to curb 
carbon dioxide emissions from automobiles and power plants."

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/science/climate/2002-07-18-states-climate.htm 



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